Weekend Show – Precious Metals, Energy And The Related Stocks With Doc And Dan Steffens

October 7, 2023

Welcome to the KE Report Weekend Show! On this Weekend Show we focus on commodities (gold, silver, oil, natural gas) and commodity stocks with Doc and Dan Steffens. 


Please keep in touch by emailing us with your thoughts on our guest and company interviews throughout the week. We love hearing from you all!


We hope all of our fellow Canadian listeners have a very happy Thanksgiving! Just a reminder that the Canadian exchanges are closed on Monday 😉


  • Segment 1 and 2 – Richard Postma, AKA Doc, shares his longer term technical outlook for gold, silver, GDX, GDXJ and the US markets. He outlines some of the key technical indicators he is watching, price levels and how the Fed plays into this long term outlook.
  • Segment 3 and 4 – Dan Steffens, President of the Energy Prospectus Group wraps up the show by focusing on the oil and natural gas sectors. With start with the largely unnoticed uptrend in natural gas. Next we cover the quick pullback in oil. Then we move to the stocks with 3 companies Dan likes.

Dan Steffens

    Oct 07, 2023 07:21 AM

    Great job Cory/ex as always!

    Thanks for your input Doc…

    Ex yes that was me who mentioned the handle will probably out live doc since his tone for the longest time has been bearish. Of course Doc no harm intended just figure of speech. However Doc you have been correct for sometime regarding trend and many should have listened. There is no perfect guru. I’m sure many in here and out there want to hide under a rock when you come out every time and predict lower prices lol. However I think this time around although I agree with not only yours but many of us who have been watching this handle mature, realize it’s now a right shoulder.

    I think this time around the miners are and have put there final lows in. I mentioned next week the weekly will put another sword red colour possibly tagging that major support level at $1810 so I’m not worried and not surprised when it does because it’s going to be the last time to shake everyone out. I’ve said whoever is not buying here will regret it.

    My point being is third week of October we will head up and November will be so explosive that these miners will reverse to there means a not one person is speaking of that within this time frame I mentioning. Then we will correct but not to make lower lows to fill out the remainder of that higher shoulder. It will take time as doc says but you will regret not buying the miners here because they will be much higher there after. April/march probability 80% gold finally breaks out. I would hope for it to happen earlier but it’s in line with docs comments but I don’t agree miners will go lower or gold will break $1810. The only last chance probability I see is $1787-$1797 if they find a way to push it that low which I highly doubt.

    Best of luck to all and remember the longer the base, the higher in space!


      Oct 07, 2023 07:38 AM

      DOC gave $25 as target for Newmont

      That would be further 30% downside

      Ex asked, if we could see the low’s of 2016

      I had a look. The low for Newmont in 2016 was at $15.40

      That would mean, we could see even 60% downside

        Oct 07, 2023 07:42 PM

        Off-mic Doc mentioned he could see the case for a number of mining stocks flirting with their 2016 lows again…

        I pointed out that Coeur Mining (CDE) is almost there. Even though it surged to $16 in 2016, and over $12 during the #SilverSqueeze in early 2021, it closed at $2.20 on Friday. It’s 2016 major low was $1.62.

          Oct 07, 2023 07:48 PM

          Obviously, for most companies the line in the sand they need to contend with is their 2020 Pandemic Crash lows… but even those aren’t far off for many established companies.

          Look at First Majestic (AG). Even though in 2016 it surged up to over $19, and during the #SilverSqueeze it shot up to well over $23…. during the Pandemic Crash it dove down to $4.14. (AG) closed on Friday at $5.21, after having just dipped down recently to $4.81. It’s not that far away from the 2020 crash low at this point. However, it is still well off the $2.38 major low it made in early 2016.

            Oct 07, 2023 07:55 PM

            However, while there are some really troubled PM charts out there, when I look at the ETFs, I’m less concerned with the overall picture in the space, because GDX, GDXJ, SIL, and SILJ are still well off their major lows from early 2016 and even still well above their 2020 crash lows.

            Look at (SILJ) for example: It’s the most speculative of the 4 major PM ETFs and while it has been on a downward trek for the last few years after peaking during the #SilverSqueeze in early 2021 at $18.76, it closed on Friday at $8.27, well above both the 2020 Pandemic Crash low of $4.75, and the 2016 major low of $3.85. Silver stocks would really need to fall out of bed bad to take SILJ from $8.27 to below $4 again.


            Oct 07, 2023 07:02 PM

            As for (GDX) the best proxy on the larger cap gold stocks, it closed on Friday at $26.89.

            That is well above the 2020 Pandemic Crash low of $15.56, and the early 2016 low $11.65.

            So despite all the F.U.D. (Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt) we see in the markets these days, GDX is nowhere even close at this point to piercing through either it’s 2020 lows or 2016, and thus despite the recent cyclical bear, is still in the well-established secular bull market in PMs ever since it bottomed 7 years ago.

            I’d be incredibly shocked to see GDX get back down to that $15.56 level from 2020 again, much less the $11.65 low from 2016. If that were to happen the whole PM sector would be going down the toilet… and that seems very unlikely with the macro backdrop we see the world in.

            So while the move in GDX to close on Friday at $26.89 is disappointing in contrast to the $44.01 level attained in the 2020 surge, it is still very well above the prior 2 lows of note, and really more in the middle of that range between the major low of 2016 and highest point thus far from 2020.


            Oct 08, 2023 08:09 AM

            Hi Ex,

            thanks for the insides

            Coeur had cost overruns with Rochester and First Majestic has trouble with Mexico and Nevada. So there are good reasons for new lows.

            But for Newmont I don’t see similar issues. They are on the way to merge with Newcrest and create an 8 million ounces producer.

            I think DOC takes Newmont as a proxy for the whole sector as it is the largest gold producer

            I don’t see where he got his $25 target from

            The low in 2020 was $40.56

            There was another low in 2019 at $30

      Oct 07, 2023 07:50 PM

      What happened to your four year cycle low and wash out scenario with mining equities? Not being snarky here, just asking 🙂

        Oct 08, 2023 08:36 AM


        Forgive my dementia but if you could pull up that post which I have an idea of what it said it would be more helpful. Regardless I believe I was trying to say at that time that there could be a possibility the cycle low was not in and we could break lower and make a new low. It was in reference to other technicians and others who at that time didn’t think the low was in. I’m quite certain I mentioned I was more in the favourable camp that the 2022 September low would hold and I’m still on par with that.

        For me let me clarify all cycle lows are in. We are just in an intermediate bottoming process of which I think could end late next week.

        Contrary to what doc said my belief is we are about to ignite and go tag all time highs in the next 6-7 weeks with gold which would and should have these miners much higher then the rotten bottom they are in! That would be a clear 4th attempt on breaking through all time highs of which I think it retreats consolidates and breaks out on the 5th attempt march/April timeframe..

        The key statement here is do you wait till such breakout or buy at these lows? No brainer to me

      Oct 07, 2023 07:15 PM

      Hey there Glen. Thanks for the reminder that it was you who had mentioned the handle (from the larger proposed Cup and Handle pattern many have touted) may take the rest of our lives to resolve. I thought that was a funny line when I read your comment, and couldn’t remember who had said it when I was asking Doc that question, but the point remains, that the Cup & Handle pattern has broken down with the handle going so low and going so long in duration at this point. However, the inverse head and shoulders pattern seems constructive if it does end up resolving as expected to the upside.

      I still like Christopher Aarons take about the rectangular consolidation of the Gold since making the new all-time high in 2020 at $2089 and then correcting down to $1618 in 2022, and bouncing back and forth within that box for the last few years. His point was that it would likely resolve to the upside eventually and one can take the range of the box ($2089-$1681 = $471) and add that amount of amplitude to the all-time high of $2089 + $471 = $2560 target. That seems like a worthwhile target for the yellow metal ($2560), over the next 2 years.

      It coincides with the $2500 target Jordan Roy-Byrne had coming out of the Cup & Handle pattern anyway. So regardless of which pattern ends up playing out (Cup & Handle, Inverse Head and Shoulders, Rectangular Box inversion)…. a $2500 gold price seems quite reasonable whenever it resolves to the upside. The only scenario that would negate that would be a move back down below $1618, which seems quite improbable at this point.

    Oct 07, 2023 07:57 AM

    Doc, what are your low targets for gold and silver and the time frame and is it a good time to start buying physical gold and silver on this dip? Rick Santelli on Fast Money is predicting the interest rates on government bonds in ten years will exceed 13% how will this effect the pm’s if it happens?

      Oct 07, 2023 07:57 AM

      Pardu, I don’t like to pick lows but I will in the future mention when I think we’re close to the lows. I plan on picking up some more gold when I’m comfortable with what appears to be a washout. I haven’t bought much mining stocks in the last 3-4 weeks since I believe we’re in a nice bottoming phase. We’ll get periodic moves up but the next weeks and months are bottoming so one can position for the long term. This too will ultimately pass and people will make some nice gains in the future. Rick Santelli is probably quite accurate in what he thinks but I don’t think it will take as long as he thinks for that high number he gives for the treasury market.

    Oct 07, 2023 07:21 AM

    DOC is on a roll?……nibbling is now part of a technicians bailiwick…glta

      Oct 07, 2023 07:13 PM

      There’s a lot of cognitive dissonance around here. Doc has been extra confidently bearish at every low just like Joe and many of those lows should have been bought.

        Oct 08, 2023 08:04 AM

        every technician i know tries to pick swing points to trade from…not doc…i suppose it is exactly equivalent to selling pharma pills for patient ills…but not being concerned that they continue to become more and more unhealthy….health being the antidote to illness….cognitive dissonance gone ballistic…glta

    Oct 07, 2023 07:33 AM
    NatGas Week : BREAKOUT

    Oct 07, 2023 07:40 AM

    I have adopted the “Limbo” theory of miner investment… at some point the bar will have been lowered so far, that no human can get under it. Then the bar goes in the trash can as the game has lost its meaning.

    Oct 07, 2023 07:51 AM

    Hi Ex, do you remember a book by Charles Mackay called “Popular Delusions and The Madness Of Crowds” it was written about 185 years ago but chronicles events like The Tulip Bulb craze and the South Seas Bubble. I believe that when the public wakes up to the sham perpetrated upon them by the overprinting of unbacked fiat currency, they will be in panic mode to buy physical gold and silver and the accompanying resource stocks. When people are brought together by a defining moment, the overriding tendency is to become collectively hysterical.

    I have been buying junior precious metal resource stocks that are selling for literally a penny or two. There is a lot to pick over these days. Bayhorse Silver grabbed my attention because they have a silver mine with some gold in Oregon and a gold and silver exploration property in British Columbia. A Punters dream! Management has been buying lately but even they paid more than the stock is currently listed at. Bayhorse Silver has a market cap of around $3 million. If they don’t go bankrupt and this market crashes, (for me it is a matter of when not if) I will be off to the races in one or more of the stocks I have recently purchased. This is a dream market for gamblers. (anyone who is invested in the stock market is a gambler) Always Do Your Own Due Diligence. DT😍

      Oct 07, 2023 07:18 PM

      Dick, you have managed to push it up 30% all by yourself, with your purchase of 3000 shares @ .015
      KER people alone could engineer a Bayhorse multi bagger.

        Oct 07, 2023 07:31 PM


        Are you sure you aren’t a pirate! LOL! I for one stubbornly expect that the tide will turn in my stocks, and I want to be there when it happens. Remember, “Mob psychology”, it usually starts out with vague fear and ends with overpowering “Greed!”. LOL! DT😉

      Oct 07, 2023 07:21 PM

      Hi DT. Yes, I’m familiar with the book “Popular Delusions and The Madness Of Crowds” and have read segments of it online, but don’t own the actual book. It was Bob Moriarty that first drew my attention to it, and I’ve seen many others use charts of the Tulip Bulb mania and South Seas bubbles from it with a few different markets (most notably when the 2017 and 2021 Crypto crazes were in full effect).

      Great point on not being part of the herd, but positioning to where the herd may be moving to next.

      I’d submit that what we’ve seen this year in A.I. was a similar type bubble, where a normal Price to Earnings ratio is in the 16-25 range, and Nvidia got up to PE ratio of 233 at one point earlier this year. I asked a number of generalists we have on the show if that is sustainable, and most of the bullish ones wouldn’t directly answer the question.

      That correct answer was of course… No.

      A PE ratio over 200 is not sustainable. Now NVDA has come back down to the far more reasonable 110 PE ratio. Haha! 🙂

      The Madness of Crowds indeed….

    Oct 08, 2023 08:27 AM

    How many times have you heard this sort of wisdom being expressed, “Never give up your position in a good stock”. Remember the “Nifty Fifty”, none of them are around today and the same thing will hold true for “The Magnificent Seven”. All markets are meant to be traded all the time; nothing is permanent not even your life. DT

    Oct 08, 2023 08:54 AM

    Waterfall Decline in Gold Induces Miner Capitulation

    David Erfle – The Junior Mining Junky – Friday October 6, 2023

    “The headwinds from persistent strength in the U.S. dollar and 10-year bond yields moving closer to 5% have proved too much for the gold market as prices have fallen to their lowest level since March. Gold lost key support at $1900 in September, when the month and quarter ended last Friday. With the Chinese market being closed during “Golden Week,” Western bullion banks were primed to continue covering short positions into October during a waterfall decline in Gold Futures down towards its rising 200-week moving average at $1820.”

    “Yet, once you step back to look at the bigger macro picture that is currently unfolding, it is not hard to see that the stars are aligning for gold. Although the bears have been able to break through the six-month gold floor at $1900, rising energy prices coupled with slower economic growth are creating a stagflationary environment which will eventually push Gold Futures back above $2000 an ounce….”

    Oct 08, 2023 08:23 PM

    Gravity still the overwhelming influence on my account. Occasional sideways movement which lingers on consistent with some law of physics, but looking for something that makes it go up which will have to be some man made force contrary to its being at rest and remaining at rest.

    Oct 08, 2023 08:46 PM

    Spiraling Toward A ‘Debt Crisis’? Part Deux

    Jesse Felder – The Felder Report – (10/07/2023)

    Oct 08, 2023 08:51 PM

    “It Could Spike North Of $150”: Here Are The Main Implications For Oil From The War In The Middle East

    Sunday, October 08, 2023

    Oct 08, 2023 08:38 PM

    Plenty of thieves in leadership positions, but hardly an adult.

    Oct 09, 2023 09:35 AM

    Here is a new action for everyone to ponder: 3 minutes after open and “only one” miner is reporting any activity. (Schwab US) ? (Make that 10 minutes.) Must be Canadian Holiday shuts down Schwab again despite US Markets open.

    added: Interactive Brokers reporting and in green.

    Oct 09, 2023 09:54 AM
    Michael Boutros : Technical Analysis
    03:04 – US Dollar (DXY)
    12:39 – US Treasurys (10Y&2Y)
    44:01 – Crude Oil (WTI)
    51:25 – Gold (XAU/USD)
    56:03 – Silver (XAG/USD)
    57:27 – S&P 500 (SPX500)