Dave Erfle – Constructive Technical Action Here At Month-End In The Precious Metals Sector

Shad Marquitz
November 28, 2023

Dave Erfle, Founder and Editor of The Junior Miner Junky, joins us to review the constructive technical action here at month-end on the charts for gold, silver, GDX and GDXJ.  With gold up decisively above $2000 in a short-covering rally, and big gaps higher in silver and the mining stock ETFs, after recently outperforming the yellow metal, and bullish candlestick patterns on the weekly charts;  there are a lot of positive factors stacking up for the precious metals sector. 


Another positive trend we review is that industry leaders like Newmont and Barrick have been outperforming the PM mining indexes, and may indicate more generalist investors getting positioned in the gold miners once again.   We discuss that things are getting a bit overbought on the daily charts, and volumes are still not robust, so we could still see a pullback in the near-term.  However, Dave feels that most of tax loss selling has already transpired earlier in the year, and that the risk is definitely more to the upside than any sustained move to the downside in the medium-term.  





Click here to visit Dave’s website – The Junior Miner Junky.

    Nov 28, 2023 28:21 PM

    Gold Surges, Dollar Declines On Fed Official’s Remark & Geopolitical Unrest

    Gary Wagner – Kitco – Tuesday November 28, 2023

    Nov 28, 2023 28:24 PM

    Charlie Munger, Who Helped Buffett Build Berkshire, Dies at 99

    By Noah Buhayar – Bloomberg – November 28, 2023

    “Charles Munger, the alter ego, sidekick and foil to Warren Buffett for almost 60 years as they transformed Berkshire Hathaway Inc. from a failing textile maker into an empire, has died. He was 99.”

    “Berkshire Hathaway could not have been built to its present status without Charlie’s inspiration, wisdom and participation,” Buffett said in the statement.

    “A lawyer by training, Munger helped Buffett, who was seven years his junior, craft a philosophy of investing in companies for the long term. Under their management, Berkshire averaged an annual gain of 20% from 1965 through 2022 — roughly twice the pace of the S&P 500 Index. Decades of compounded returns made the pair billionaires and folk heroes to adoring investors.”

    “It’s terrific to have a partner who will say, ‘You’re not thinking straight,’” Buffett said of Munger, seated next to him, at Berkshire’s 2002 meeting. (“It doesn’t happen very often,” Munger interjected.) Too many CEOs surround themselves with “a bunch of sycophants” disinclined to challenge their conclusions and biases, Buffett added.

      Nov 28, 2023 28:08 PM

      Warren Buffet got most of the praise, but Munger was the guy behind the chair. He pushed it into the table, where the feast was being served. DT

        Nov 28, 2023 28:25 PM

        You helluva wordsmith there DK.

        Nov 28, 2023 28:03 PM

        I agree DT, that Charlie Munger was often overlooked for his contributions to Berkshire Hathaway until just the last few years of his life, as the media fawned for decades over Warren Buffet as the “oracle from Omaha” and rightly so… (not a slight against Warren as he is one of the most successful public investors of the 20th & 21st century). It’s just odd that the media rarely gave props to Charlie in the same fashion, but I did notice that at their annual meeting held publicly, that Munger got more attention since about 2018 or 2019 and forward as they both brought their chairs up there together in front of the audience, and often Charlie had some of the best one liners or real zingers that were either very wise or very funny.

        I guess the point being that most great people don’t act in a vacuum and have a team of people behind them propping them up. With regards to the overwhelming success of Berkshire Hathaway, Warren mostly got all the credit, while his business partner Charlie, often was the voice of reason or one that hit the brakes on Warren’s more optimistic desire to keep buying… so Charlie restrained Warren a bit and reigned him in to actually wait for better entries into companies they positioned in. They actually made an excellent team, and as Doc Jones said over on today… its the “end of an era” with Charlie gone from the company. RIP.

    Nov 28, 2023 28:19 PM

    Humm………. Charlie got short changed…. lol………….
    Now this is interesting………
    His fortune was estimated at $2.3 billion earlier this year (while Buffett’s is estimated at around $100 billion).
    But, old Warren’s daddy was a Senator… lol………

      Nov 28, 2023 28:12 PM

      Good points OOTB. Warren has been more connected, and aside from his daddy being a Senator, he was all chummy with Billy Gates and other elites. Warren was also the nicer public facing personality, as sometimes Charlie was curt or gruff, and it turned some people off…. I’m not sure if you ever saw or read some of Charlie’s comments about cryptocurrencies, but it was hilarious how he dismissed them and got the Crypto-kiddies all pissed off. 🙂

        Nov 28, 2023 28:14 PM

        Billionaire Charlie Munger: Cryptocurrency is ‘crazy, stupid gambling,’ and ‘people who oppose my position are idiots’

        Thu, Feb 16 2023

        Billionaire investor Charlie Munger isn’t a fan of cryptocurrency.

        The Berkshire Hathaway vice chairman called the form of virtual currency “worthless” during Wednesday’s annual shareholder meeting of the Daily Journal Corporation, a publishing company where he’s a director.

        “Sometimes I call it crypto ‘crappo,’ sometimes I call it ‘crypto sh-t.’ It’s just ridiculous that anybody would buy this stuff,” Munger, 99, told CNBC’s Becky Quick during a livestream of the event, adding: “It’s totally absolutely crazy, stupid gambling.”

          Nov 28, 2023 28:19 PM

          As one could imagine, those kind of comments didn’t go over well with the overzealous true believers in the crypto space, and so they despised Charlie. I just got a kick of him going on big media interviews and stirring the pot a bit. Of course, the HODL’ers reacted by calling him a dinosaur and making him into memes on whichever days the cryptos would rally instead of crash. Gotta love it!

    Nov 28, 2023 28:49 PM

    “Goldfinger” has an interesting article on his site concerning “pipes” trading, possibly concentrated from Europe affecting Canadian/US markets. It indicated that Regulators can’t track the trading activity. May be worth a question to him during his next appearance.

    Nov 29, 2023 29:14 AM

    Second Article on Wall Street Banks:
    Sandy Weil, CITI, concerning getting rid of Glass-Steagall, “We are going to be so rich”
    Gives one such a warm feeling about where we are as a Country and Human Beings …It also explains a lot about Congress and The Supremes.

    Nov 29, 2023 29:58 AM

    Whip lashing of Hercules and Benton continues.

      Nov 29, 2023 29:16 AM

      What whiplashing, Hercules is up 400% in a month and a half and Benton was up 400% in a month, these stocks are frothy and need to correct somewhat. You should take some money off the table before they get manipulated down. I can’t understand how people can complain about how badly their stocks are doing when they can see a huge profit, and they do nothing. DT

        Nov 29, 2023 29:08 AM

        Nice day isn’t.

          Nov 29, 2023 29:52 AM

          One of the best authorities for information on the issue of Market Manipulation and particularly in Canada is Eric Sprott and his remarks on corruption can be found throughout the blogs. You can also go to the Save Canadian Mining site for videos and discussions. Possibly a second authority would be Keith Neumeyer of First Majestic. There are numerous CEOs that are concerned about the criminality in the Sector and obviously would be concerned about those that treat the issue as frivolous. But, I digress.

    Nov 29, 2023 29:15 AM

    I’m going to ask this as a serious question Jonsyl please explain how there’s nothing technical to the moves in gold yet you mention watch the US dollar??? Cuz it sounds like you’re saying that a breakdown in the technicals of the US dollar will effect gold. And we’ve seen that inverse correlation in their ‘technical’ charts. Also on this move up my mate has traded long gold on the forex and has utilized all the support and resistance points his TA is showing him along with charts that told him it was breaking to the upside. All sounds like technicals to me

      Nov 29, 2023 29:29 AM

      Gold (and most other stuff / commodities) priced in US dollar, the lower the dollar the greater the value of gold and vice versa. Not all the time but most of the time. An age old axiom which has more to do with common sense than technical analysis.
      DXY rallied into first week of Oct and has worked it’s way lower ever since, coincidentally Gold slide ended and has worked it’s way higher ever since within spits throw of all time highs.
      Now should the dollar and gold rally in tandem, that would be good for the gold bugs.

      Can’t say the same with gold equities, especially the junk. The underperformance is amazing, with no sign of change. In the past you bought gold equities for the leverage in their share price outperformance they provided to any gold rally.

      Then there are the wars I believe you jokingly referred to. Both coincided with a gold rally, Feb 22 for little more than a couple weeks, and the most recent Hamas attack Oct 7. Now there are the fools that attribute these as a convenient trick to confuse the sheeple supported with technicals. What BS.

        Nov 29, 2023 29:31 AM

        I should have known that you really are as dense as you portray yourself. I did not say the attack was a trick or that it was done for any reason relating to gold. I said it provided a convenient (know what that means?) explanation for gold’s behavior. The media never passes up a chance to explain away everything gold does and yes, it most definitely is done to keep sheeple like you in the dark. It obviously works because here you are doubting gold’s action. 🤪

        Nov 29, 2023 29:34 AM

        So gold is trading at all time highs in most major currencies and getting close in US dollars and those trading it on forex based on TA are getting wrong that it’s a bull??? Not sure I’m following what your saying

        And just trying to understand your stance on TA regarding gold. No need to muddle the discussion talking about other things.

          Nov 29, 2023 29:52 PM

          Wolfster, most people believe TA is pure nonsense and that’s a good thing for those who know the truth.

          Nov 29, 2023 29:53 PM

          Wolf, no muddle except the one you try to create, simple fact whether gold or other commodities priced in the dollar are inversely related. dollar up and gold down. Nothing technical about that. Trust me if the US dollar has a reversal in here and goes up gold WILL go down as is the norm.
          If it happens not to do that, then the gold bugs will indeed finally have something to cheer about with its underlying strength. Nothing mystical about it.

          You can choose to explain this relativity with TA. along with all them forex traders.

          In fact, where were you and Matthew with TA, pitchforks and precision technical tools in identifying the consistent underperformance of gold sector equities, in particular the dregs which you’ve accumulated for the past year or more.
          Or with identifying the rebound in general market as measured by spx also nearing all time highs. What I’ve seen posted here are proclamations of imminent collapse. With the hope one of them will be correct.

            Nov 29, 2023 29:02 PM

            Funny how you pretend to have a handle on everything yet still mark every single buyable low with a whiny bearish tantrum. Gold took off almost 2 months ago even before the dollar fell from its peak and has since risen 3 times as much as the dollar has fallen. The big picture is a big “L” for you because you’re hyper focused on the very short term and don’t know TA.
            I’m sure you’ve forgotten how many people like you thought gold would be at 600 to 800 if the dollar ever went as high as it did in recent years. I’d also bet that you are unaware of the action of the last 15 years. The dollar was at 72 when gold first topped 1,000 and now gold has doubled to 2,000 even though the dollar went UP 50% at the same time. Your comment leaves out any acknowledgement or explanation of those facts because you can’t consider anything beyond a few days.
            Face it, you’re angry all the time because there’s no cure for your confusion.

    Nov 29, 2023 29:42 AM

    TSX.v, can the Slow Stochastics stay embedded until this becomes overbought on the RSI?

    Nov 29, 2023 29:45 AM

    MO. GDX..approaching some trend line resistance levels….….big RESistance around 35.5 yellow oval…IF cleared then horizontal resistance are at the swings above….41.61 , 46ish…glta

    Nov 29, 2023 29:15 AM

    See second article up on:
    It concerns the removal of Glass-Steagall and the Wall Street Banks and employees going to get rich. In other words by removing Glass-Steagall it allowed the Banks to follow the same Agenda that took the country to its knees during the Great Depression. It makes one of the Strongest cases for Regulation and statutory authority to curb criminality by Central Banking, including constant audit and reporting.

    And by the way we are going through the same process of transfer of wealth on a day-to-day basis.