Dave Erfle – Market Reactions To CPI, PPI, Geopolitics – Gold Holds Above $2000, But PM Stocks Remain Muted

Shad Marquitz
January 12, 2024

Dave Erfle, Founder and Editor of the Junior Miner Junky, joins us to discuss how the markets have responded to the CPI and PPI inflation readings, the geopolitical flare ups on Friday in Yemen, along with the technical setup in gold, GDX, GDXJ, and Silver.   We start off looking at how the market is pricing in Fed rate cuts for the balance of the year, and Dave points out that it will be more important as to why they actually start cutting rates. 


Technically, it is encouraging that gold has continued to hold and put in a number of weekly closes above the $2000 level, but ultimately Dave wants to see a decisive close above $2100 to signal that a true breakout is in order.  We wrap up with a  wide-ranging discussion on the underperformance of the PM equities to gold, and why it is so important to see silver start getting a speculative bid along with the mining stocks.




Click here to visit Dave’s site, the Junior Miner Junky.

    Jan 13, 2024 13:59 PM
      Jan 13, 2024 13:47 PM

      Gold went up about 33% since bottoming 14 month ago and even made a new all-time high. That’s with rates rising considerably at the same time. I called that 2022 low THE low because it was clearly a bear trap and then I gave the “big picture” all clear about 2 months ago when significant long term momentum breakout were obtained. Now something tells me that gold will begin its next move higher before we get the first rate cut (again). However, silver is the one we should be watching because our miners probably won’t light up until it puts $26 behind it and maybe even $25 since the message at that point would be clear.

    Jan 13, 2024 13:07 PM

    6 of the last 7 weekly closes have been above the previous record weekly close set 2020.

    Jan 13, 2024 13:27 PM

    I didn’t like the way yesterday/Friday began because of what I said on Thursday: “Today gave a short term buy signal for the gold miners of medium to low confidence (nothing to do with momentum) but due to the way this normal correction has unfolded I hope the buy fails and the gold miners go lower into next week. This would set up the potential for a much better intermediate buy signal.”

    Luckily everything faded into Friday’s close to keep the most bullish possibility alive. So hopefully the miners go lower for the next few sessions. If they don’t then yesterday’s fade probably had a lot to do with opening gaps, end of week and the view that gold’s pop was entirely news driven.
    K92 (largest holding is USERX, the world’s oldest gold equities mutual fund).

    Jan 13, 2024 13:38 PM

    SILJ:GDX looks great and will continue to whether it falls further next week or not.

    Jan 14, 2024 14:01 PM

    The dollar in your pocket is sitting at all-time lows while the dollar index is still well above its all-time low of 2012. The breakdown is coming and it will be a big deal.