Craig Hemke – Gold’s Next Breakout? COT Reports Show Bullish Setup
Cory
August 25, 2025
Today, Craig Hemke, founder and editor of the TF Metals Report, joins me for his regular Monday commentary on the precious metals markets. We start with a recap of last week’s market action following Jerome Powell’s remarks at Jackson Hole, which signaled that the Fed may be preparing for a September rate cut. The result: strength across equities, bonds, and precious metals, with the U.S. dollar the lone laggard.
Key Discussion Points:
- Powell’s Jackson Hole speech and why a rate cut now looks all but certain.
- Market reaction: broad rallies across assets, dollar weakness, and implications for gold and silver.
- Insights from the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report showing bullish positioning for both gold and silver.
- Gold’s ongoing five-month consolidation and what could spark the next breakout.
- The revaluation of junior mining stocks and what’s needed for the sector to continue higher.
- Silver’s inertia and potential for a sharp move once momentum returns.
- The seasonal setup heading into September and how upcoming jobs data could influence Fed policy.
Follow Craig’s work at TF Metals Report.
Discussion
2 Comments
13 hours ago
12 hours ago
Thanks for this and previous Justin Huhn piece. Two valuable posts.
David Lotan: Gold Sector M&A And Fresh Capital Flows Fueling The Gold Mining Sector Bull Market
Goldfinger Capital – Aug 24, 2025
00:00 Intro
01:35 Powell pivot and Federal Reserve independence
04:11 “The first move is the wrong move, and the second move is the real move”
07:11 Gold mining sector M&A cycle
10:10 Many more buyers for assets than the number of assets available on the market
11:10 Prospect of Barrick/Newmont merger
14:40 Coeur Mining and Hecla
20:35 Got to give the Calibre guys a lot of credit
23:58 What makes a good mining jurisdiction?
28:30 Yukon (Coffee Deposit, Eagle Mine, etc.)
30:10 Package deal for former Victoria Gold assets?
31:20 Energy infrastructure in the Yukon
34:10 Barrick’s Hemlo Mine
37:30 Reminding ourselves of risk in junior mining
39:45 Whipsaws in the junior mining sector
40:30 Owning 1 million shares in a stock that trades 10,000 shares a day
41:30 What are the sources of capital flowing into Canadian mining stocks in 2025?
44:09 $50 million lead order from US generalist fund in Snowline Gold financing
46:00 Traditional resumption in capital flows into the sector
47:00 David prefers to anonymously buy stocks in the open market
50:35 Stumping David with a tough question
51:35 The fastest way to get to the front of the line when competing for capital
53:40 “Network stocks”
55:15 Why are there so many sociopaths involved in the junior mining sector?
59:00 “You always want to be in the next Lundin deal”
1:01:00 Why aren’t there more female CEOs in the mining industry?
1:02:42 Thanks for watching!
https://youtu.be/wikmDhD7DuY