Craig Hemke – Gold & Silver Breakout, ETF Inflows, and What’s Next for the Miners
Gold and silver have broken out to new cycle highs after a 5-month consolidation. Craig Hemke, founder and editor of the TF Metals Report, joins me to map the pattern driving the move, where it could go next, and how equity inflows and central-bank dynamics are reshaping the precious metals landscape.
Key Topics
- Breakout mechanics & roadmap: Four repeated cycles over the last ~2 years … 3–4 months of sideways consolidation followed by 15-20% surges. With the latest breakout confirmed in late August, Craig outlines upside scenarios into Q4.
- Miners vs. metals: Why strong metal prices plus widening margins can still mean more catch-up ahead for producers and developers; how valuation frameworks (P/E, price/book) may evolve if capital rotates into the sector.
- ETF flows & breadth: Rising inflows into GDX/GDXJ as broad participation improves across large caps and juniors; how equity strength and metal strength reinforce each other.
- Macro drivers: Slowing U.S. data, rate-cut expectations into the upcoming Fed meeting, and the prospect of yield-curve management; how global de-dollarization and central-bank buying since 2022 continue to underpin gold demand.
- Then vs. now: Lessons from the 2009–2011 bull market compared to today’s debt math, policy backdrop, and global currency dynamics.
- Positioning mindset: Why “buy-the-dip” may persist in a structurally supportive backdrop, and what traders should watch as liquidity returns post-summer.
Click here to visit Craig’s website – TF Metals Report
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Investment disclaimer:
This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Investing in equities and commodities involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Guests may own shares in companies mentioned.
Biotech XBI is also accumulated. Folks, this does not happen if recession is coming
https://schrts.co/ZjRugttx
WHY? DT
I suppose money is rotating from tech sector to other areas of the economy.
You suppose or you know and what does that mean? DT
Hi DT, are you back in HGRAF? I bought @ 1.08 this morning and watched it fall to 1.00, but now in after hours it is 1.15 and HSTXF is 1.20 and WRLGF is .75 It’s off to the races. Who will win?
Did everyone hear Quinton Hennigh discuss ODV on last Friday’s Crescat call on YouTube? Sounds like the Cariboo project could be a monster, like the Malarctic mine Sean Roosen built. Now Sean wants to repeat at Cariboo for ODV. So glad I bought a ton of ODV@ 1.88 before QH shot the price up to $3. Do Doc, Matthew, DT, and Chad own ODV?
Hi Bonzo, I am waiting to get back in the pool. I am trying to not let my emotions over rule my thinking. Speculation only works for me if I take a hard calculated professional viewpoint. I did add to my WRLG today but I believe that HG is where the big gains will be made. HG and WRLG are two different trading animals one is very predictable and the other is completely off the wall. DT
Not Matthew, he’s pissing his money away on IPT, DEF, BBB….
AGX up another 17% today. Chinese are buying up all that silver.
My Dryden was up 32% today which puts it up more than 50% since I bought it just weeks ago.
My Hecla was up 12% today for more than a double since my last buys in the spring.
My Coeur has roughly tripled since my last big buys.
I could go on but I’ll leave you with the fact that IPT finished up 8% today which puts a lot of last week’s buys up 10-11 percent.
And yes, I bought more Defiance today because my confidence doesn’t come from following insecure herd followers like yourself.
Your AGX, btw, had half of IPT’s revenue last year and less than half of IPT’s gross profit. AGX is also trading at a 50 percent higher price/sales and 75% higher price/book. In addition, AGX is essentially out of cash and its small debt is still ten times that of IPT’s. AGX Debt/Equity: 13.43%. IPT Debt/Equity: 0.58%.
AGX Current Ratio: .38
IPT Current Ratio: 4.62
*Current Ratio:
The current ratio is a liquidity ratio that measures a company’s ability to pay off its short-term debts (due within one year) by comparing its total current assets to its total current liabilities. Calculated as Current Assets / Current Liabilities, a ratio greater than 1 indicates the company has sufficient short-term assets to cover its short-term obligations, while a ratio below 1 suggests potential liquidity issues. Lenders and investors use the current ratio to assess a company’s short-term financial health and stability.
21M shares..that is a lot of accumulation
IPT is a laggard and given its dilution policy, it will continue being a laggard. Don’t know why you bother with it. Do you trade it or just buy low and hold, waiting for the mythical multibagger…..in love with it and unable to let go even though it treats you badly
Dilution policy? It shouldn’t take more than two braincells and a tiny bit of honesty to know that dilution had been kept in check very well until 2023 and the Plomosas acquisition.
As for the mythical multi baggers, IPT has provided me with several rounds of those and there’s nothing about the current picture that makes me doubt that it will do so again.
IPT carries no debt because that’s the way a junior miner with a focus on exploration should be run.
As of 2024, BDO Canada is the auditor for IPT. You’re probably lucky that Davidson & Company isn’t aware of your idiotic slander. Do tell us which of these 79 people are breaking the law to help IPT:
https://davidson-co.com/about/our-team/
Now tell us who Bill Davidson is to Fred Davidson and then tell us exactly what he has done for him.
IPT carries no debt because it doesn’t want outsiders snopping around its operation. Letting the Davidson accounting firm boil their books may have facilitated that. Management prefers to constantly dilute its own shareholders to benefit themselves. They even ex tended the life of warrants so they can eventually collect on them. What about those company owned drilling rigs. That could very well be a scam.
There’s more but that is all for now.
Terry. It’s very apparent you were someone who bought IPT with the hopes of a huge multibagger and were a bag holder in the end who sold for a big loss. Matthew has been very clear with how he plays IPT. He trades it. Buys when it’s out of favour and sells into the big rally when silver runs. He’s done so through each silver rally since I’ve been following here. You even acknowledged the recent 3x move. The fact that a 3x move for a nice trade in a short time doesn’t entice you and you harp on how bad management is the dilution etc shows you are looking at it as a buy and hold aka the bag holder you once were is still looking at IPT in the wrong way. Its a trade especially when silver is moving and yes it’s a laggard so you need to be ready to sell once the momo in silver plays are gone
https://www.fibonomics.com/2025/09/hydrograph-awaiting-news.html
HydroGraph : Awaiting News : Limited Downside Likely
Price Discovery vs Price Demand
Decades-Old Quantum Puzzle Solved: Graphene Electrons Violate Fundamental Law of Physics. People who understands physics live in a world separate from the rest of us. DT
https://scitechdaily.com/decades-old-quantum-puzzle-solved-graphene-electrons-violate-fundamental-law-of-physics/
The 3-Body characteristic there too.
Maybe we should buy more HG…
I am trying to figure out through price discovery when the shorts are going to cover. Maybe I should send a spy to infiltrate their group, they must have information that they share like everyone else. LOL! DT 🤣🫵👍
Let me know when you decide to buy. Maybe Matthew can tell from his charts. Dropping from 2.70 to 1.00 is a 62% drop which might be good enough for Fibonacci.
Hi Bonzo, I believe Matthew looked at this stock about two weeks ago and he saw it trading in the bottom at around 87 cents CDN. While Graphs are important, they can’t judge the present character of the move on the day to day. We can ask Matthew what he sees for HydroGraph now and I’m sure he will send us his latest take. Cheers, DT
Current GDX Target : 70.77 +/- 1.10
https://www.tradingview.com/x/EBKkHDs7/
DOLLAR : Bounce : More?
Looks like a programmed seller at the bid with Kootenay Resources, KTRI. every minute or so is a small sell to keep pounding down the price. If you are a buyer just let the seller hit your bid.
AG back in accumulation phase
https://schrts.co/WXtpVFqn