Darrell Fletcher – Commodity Trading Desk: Iran Conflict Impact On Commodities; Oil, Nat Gas, Aluminum, Gold
In this KE Report Daily Editorial, I am joined by Darrell Fletcher, Managing Director of Commodities at Bannockburn Capital Markets. As geopolitical tensions escalate following the outbreak of war in Iran and the critical shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, Darrell provides a high-level perspective from the commodities trading desk on how these events are reshaping global markets. The discussion dives deep into the immediate and long-term impacts on the energy complex, the surprising resilience of certain metals, and the technical hurdles currently facing major exchanges.
Key Discussion Points:
- The Strait of Hormuz Crisis: Analyzing the impact of shutting down a corridor that handles 20% to 25% of global oil and 20% of liquefied natural gas (LNG).
- Energy Market Dynamics: Why the current move in crude oil ($WTI and $BRENT) remains “muted but guarded” due to a global oversupply of 3 to 3.5 million barrels per day.
- Aluminum’s Surprise Surge: How Middle Eastern production represents 10% of global output, causing aluminum prices to spike while other base metals remain under pressure from a strong USD.
- Natural Gas Divergence: Understanding why European (TTF) and Asian (JKM) gas prices are skyrocketing while U.S. Henry Hub prices remain relatively stable due to export capacity limits.
- CME Exchange Outages: A look at recent technical outages at the CME and what they mean for trader confidence during high-stakes geopolitical events.
Click here to learn more about Bannockburn Capital Markets – https://www.bannockburnglobal.com/
For more market commentary & interview summaries, subscribe to our Substacks:
- The KE Report: https://kereport.substack.com/
- Shad’s resource market commentary: https://excelsiorprosperity.substack.com/
Investment Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Investing in equities, commodities, really everything involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Guests and hosts may own shares in companies mentioned.
I watch trading volume on stocks I like, not just volume but how they trade. It’s called reading the tape. If you study HydroGraph you will notice that it is very volatile. Usually when it gets hit is in the morning, don’t panic if you see this unless there is an overall market crash and then everything is going down. DT
If I am putting a stop loss on HydroGraph because of it’s volatile nature I usually place it 15% below the closing price the previous night. That is not a standard rule for other stocks just for HydroGraph. DT
DT: The big threat on this one is a positive: buyout — probably at $15 or more if now.
We are at the beginning of a commodity bull market and then along comes this War with Iran. The major stock markets in The US are overblown particularly The Magnificent 7. Money is looking for a market that has underperformed, that is the commodity market. This war will effect stocks that have military potential and that is one of the reasons that HydroGraph is drawing in capital. Physical Gold and Silver have had good runs but their associated juniors have not, but right now there will be a premium placed on stocks with defense applications. DT
https://www.tradingview.com/x/h8q0hWdG/
SWAN : Target Acquired
https://www.tradingview.com/x/vf9l862U/
DOLLAR : Pushing Higher
I think that will reverse soon. DT
https://tinyurl.com/36ucccbu
The big hits may be over. I developed this last Wednesday night (a lesser prototype, with fewer high numbers) and thought it would not top out for a few days. Then Thursday hit! Obviously the war plans were not too big a secret. BDC
Silver 1h,
Silver 15m,
https://www.tradingview.com/x/qv9cE9jM/
DOLLAR : Strong Hold (.382) So Far
Silver 1h,
Silver 1h, will see if silver finds support here…
Silver 15m,
There was a raid on HydroGraph, this morning by professionals looking for cheap shares. It was bound to get some attention because of how high and how fast it has run. But the sign of a good stock is one that cheerfully recovers and comes back to its near high the same day. DT