Craig Hemke – Identifying the Bottom in Gold and Silver Amid Global Conflict
In this episode, we are joined by Craig Hemke, Founder and Editor of TF Metals Report, to break down one of the most volatile periods for precious metals in recent history. Craig provides a deep dive into the macroeconomic “perfect storm” currently suppressing prices.
Key Discussion Points:
- The Triple Threat to Gold: Craig explains how the 50-55 basis point shift in the 2-to-10-year yield curve, a rallying U.S. Dollar, and the massive 58-metric ton gold liquidation by Turkey have converged to drive prices lower.
- Central Bank Liquidity Concerns: An analysis of why sovereigns like Turkey are swapping gold for dollars to prop up local currencies and how this deviates from the decade-long trend of central bank accumulation.
- The “Peak Lunacy” in Rates: Why Craig believes the market has it wrong regarding future rate hikes, citing the unsustainable cost of refinancing $12 trillion in U.S. Treasuries at higher interest rates.
- The Disconnect in Mining Equities: A look at the severe margin compression facing producers as energy costs rise while metal prices fall, and why Q1 earnings might still surprise the market.
- Silver’s Technical Outlook: Evaluating the breakdown of the “one universal chart” and whether Silver is headed back toward its 200-day moving average or poised for a triple-digit recovery.
Click here to visit Craig’s website – TF Metals Report – https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/
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Investment Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Investing in equities, commodities, really everything involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Guests and hosts may own shares in companies mentioned.
The NVDA low today was 164.27, 5¢ above the 38.2% retracement (164.22) base Trump’s April 2025 surprise, which itself is 1.12 deeper (86.62) than the 61.8% retracement (87.74) base NVDA’s deep 2022 October low (10.81). Tidal momentum? BDC
V E R Y glad March is coming to an end. Generally, it is my observation that, with the exception of 2024….markets struggle a lot during election years….
Silver 1h,
Silver 1h,
Silver 15m, bottom left to top right… nice!
The 200 day BBs on silver and miners are blown out so wide it is going to be at least 12-18 months before durable new highs can be expected. Those blown out bands will gradually narrow, but it is going to take a long, long time. That’s not to say we can’t trend upwards, or that right now isn’t a good time to buy, but expecting a permanent breakout in silver above $120 anytime soon is basically delusional.
You would think that silver at close to $74 US would be more than ample but there is a structural problem in the economy, or gold and silver wouldn’t be selling at these prices. We know that all this printed money has stayed in the hands of the few. That is probably why the juniors haven’t done so well they are the domain of the “Moms and Pops”. DT
As I thought would happen, XAU:SPX looks like it will finish the month without a bearish engulfing candle.
https://schrts.co/bptDagQe
This move is no fake.
https://schrts.co/tZAydwBm
I bought a lot more CDE than HL lately and so far, so good…
https://schrts.co/qqDupYbB
I have made several buys of USAS over the past week. I also nibbled on a bit of SCZM as an initial buy.
Perfect setup for your buys…
https://schrts.co/vINsnyTe
Thanks Mathew!
Weekly SLV:
https://schrts.co/ffmhckFb
I posted this quarterly silver chart several times before the Q4 2023 pitchfork breakout at $23.76. Those who understood the chart and bought that breakout watched their silver go 5x+ in 2 years (for starters).
https://schrts.co/BTMPeHDE
This parallel channel breakout has now held for 3 monthly closes:
https://schrts.co/NiQWJdMU
Today NVDA Nvidia lost another $90.16 billion off it’s market cap. That is now $794 billion down in one month of trading. The chart is starting to look like a ski hill. We will see what tomorrow brings, it should be interesting either way. DT