Craig Hemke – Comex vs. Shanghai: What’s Really Driving Silver?
Today on the KE Report Daily Editorial (Tuesday, January 20), we’re joined by Craig Hemke, founder and editor of TF Metals Report, for a wide-ranging conversation on the powerful precious metals rally and the macro forces he believes could shape 2026.
Gold and silver continue to surge, with gold pressing higher and silver rapidly approaching the psychologically important $100 level after a dramatic run from late-2025 lows. Craig breaks down why this move looks different from past spikes, what market structure signals are flashing beneath the surface, and where global pricing power may be shifting.
Click here to visit Craig’s website – TF Metals Report – https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/
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This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Investing in equities, commodities, really everything involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Guests and hosts may own shares in companies mentioned.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/oBZnoGXq/
Bearish Wedge : Pull Back Underway
https://www.tradingview.com/x/zmpUqKwl/
DOLLAR : Early Turn North?
SIL:SLV down again today despite SLV gapping up 5%.
What a profound disappointment.
You should welcome the disconnect of the last several months since it will prove instrumental in the miners performing very well when silver finally stalls, which could very well be right now. SIL still has a 2 percent gap up today versus SLV and is an easy technical buy. SILJ looks better because it IS better but both have a lot of exposure to gold production. GDX, GDXJ, GOEX, SIL and SILJ are all on new buy signals against silver but only SILJ avoided making new lows against silver in the drop since September. None of those ETFs have filled yesterday’s gaps yet even though SLV has filled its own gap and is currently down 3 percent. GLD is also a buy vs SLV and has not yet filled yesterday’s gap.
This nearby fork resistance is right at $100:
https://schrts.co/AFYQGpYu
We could easily see a final push to it before the market pulls the rug out from under the unsuspecting herd.
I appreciate your enthusiasm, but I will believe it when I see it. That being said, I haven’t sold my mining positions to buy silver or anything like that.
I don’t want anyone to act on my opinions. Everyone should do what they think is right and what they’re comfortable with.
Since I am very confident in my outlook for the silver miners this year, I will count myself extra wrong if it doesn’t happen.
HL is my largest holding by far and it is a stone’s throw away from its 1980 high around $35. I could definitely see a pause here that coincides with one for silver. I am hoping HL won’t have to correct more than 20-25% because I plan on holding through it. Famous last words. EXK is my other largest holding and it is a hair away from its 2011 high around $13. Again, it would be a logical spot for a pause.
Last year I predicted a 40-50% correction for HL once it hit its 1980 high and was planning on sidestepping such a correction. But it has been far stronger than the analog I was looking at, so I believe such a correction lies after we substantially exceed $31. Perhaps at Francis Hunt’s target of $84.
I also remember you and Ex being way too prematurely bullish about silver and the miners after the 2016 moonshot. I left the board a few years later in bitter disappointment and complaining the whole way down–not that I blame you personally. But it took basically 7 or 8 years to recover from that mess, which is much much longer than you and Ex were predicting. SO yes, I know you are capable of being extremely wrong. Hahaha
Priced in dollars or silver, it would be nuts to sell HL here to sidestep a correction. The big picture remains wildly bullish for massive further upside. Just my opinion!
I have a moonshot logarithmic PO of $240 for HL based on a massive 50 year IHS. I do plan on selling some before that PO. hahahahha
Believe it or not, the silver miners are going to crush silver this year.
https://schrts.co/FuFeKFMu
Also in the believe it or not department, Impact Silver’s peak gain versus silver in 2025 was more than double that of SILJ’s (both measured from their spring lows to their highs). In dollars, Impact still wins with a peak gain of 290% vs SILJ’s 268%.
With nearly 3 years of Plomosas induced uncertainty and dilution mostly behind us, Impact should behave very differently in 2026 and beyond. The whiners, btw, should’ve dumped it 3 years ago. That should’ve been obvious even at the time.
I’m a whiner who dumped Impact a long time ago because it is a long way down from the middle of the list of good miners to own, let alone top of the list. Can’t blame it on Plomosas when management is mostly responsible for inducing uncertainty and dilution.
It was absolutely Plomosas that changed its profile, nothing else. All new uncertainty and dilution stemmed from the acquisition and turnaround efforts for the project. It’s plain as day which is probably why you can’t see it.
Who knows what is going on with the uncertainty and dilution going back well before Plomosas, which seems to have provided cover for management to issue themselves more cheap shares and free warrants.
These 2 passages were interesting in GORO’s year end results when discussing their silver and gold sales in Q4. We’ve been ball-parking the average Q4 metals prices for gold around $4200 and silver in the mid $50s and this report confirms that assessment.
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Gold Resource Corporation Announces Strong Preliminary Year-End Results, Highlighting Operational Turnaround
“During the quarter, the Company’s production profile has transitioned into more of a silver producer, accounting for about 80% of its revenue, including a record sale of 663,503 ounces of silver, 1,785 ounces of gold and a total gold equivalent (AuEq) ounces of 10,413.”
“During the quarter, we realized an average sale price of $55 per ounce of silver and $4,234 per ounce for gold.”
https://goldresourcecorp.com/news-releases/gold-resource-corporation-announces-strong-prelimi-13342/
Americas Gold and Silver Expands 034 Vein Complex with Discovery of Multiple New High-Grade Silver-Copper-Antimony Veins via Intercepts including 4,458 g/T Ag, 3.34% Cu and 1.50% Sb over 0.5m
January 20, 2026
Paul Andre Huet, Chairman and CEO, commented: “Our team at Galena have delivered another very impressive discovery at our flagship operation. The identification of eight new high-grade silver-copper-antimony splay veins has grown the 034 Vein discovery last year into an entire complex of high-grade veins now called the 034 Vein Complex.
Galena has a long and storied history of silver, copper, lead and antimony production and this new discovery is a true testament to the outstanding potential of Galena to continue to grow as one of the highest-grade silver operations globally. Importantly, the 034 Vein Complex remains wide open, providing exciting potential for additional growth right beside existing infrastructure and reinforcing our position as a premier U.S. silver and antimony producer.”
Americas Gold and Silver Delivers Record Cosalá Production in 2025 Driving a 52% Increase in Annual Consolidated Silver Production
January 21, 2026
Paul Andre Huet, Chairman and CEO, commented: “We capped off a highly successful and transformative 2025 with a 52% increase in attributable silver production to 2.65 million ounces – achieved in a robust and rising silver price environment that significantly amplifies the revenue and cash flow benefits of our expanded output.”
You guys are great. The rise in my net worth over the past couple years is just plain off the chart breathtaking!
It is my suspicion that Doc reminding us over the years to beware of the, “Ides of March” would be very good counsel here in 2026.
Nicely done 4 oz. Very happy to hear that, and thanks for the kind words. I know you appreciate our chats with Craig and he is a solid guy.
Yes, we’ll have to check in with Doc closer to March on that point, and there is a seasonality to the Q1 Run in Jan/Feb and the occasional cooling down in March (hence the PDAC curse seasonality). Obviously, that pattern is not every year without fail, and there have been years that veered from that seasonal pattern. Not to mention… there are unique nuances on any given year and we have wild geopolitical and fiscal factors at play here in 2026 creating a perfect storm for the PMs.
I’m also curious, at present, if he feels that the “January Effect” is in full effect for the year… based on how 2026 has exploded right out of the gates in the PM sector and across most of the metals complex from gold/silver and PM stocks to base metals like copper/nickel/zinc/tin to energy metals like lithium/uranium and then many critical minerals like rare earths/tungsten/antimony/gallium/etc…
Hot Chili with nice drill results…got my shares Ex. Talk about it all you want. Lol
🤑
The volume on HCH sucks, I don’t know what to think of that, although the price has been creeping higher. Wolfster must be buying 5000 shares a day! LOL! DT 😊
Almost 1M shares of HCH traded on ASX today, almost double average trading volume.
It must be The Aussies, it could be a real Ripper, or a Chunker! DT 🎉
No it wasn’t easy accumulating a position. Same with CCI……with CCI I’m at a double so worth it in one sense but honestly lost patience accumulating and only bought half of what I originally wanted.
Gold futures at $4,865 this morning.
Are gold companies profitable at these levels?
NatGas, 1h…
1/21 Opening
My best performer at opening was Galantas that is still “halted” and IBKR is using the “Bid” price at open and taking it away everyday at closing. It would be better to use the price when “halted”.
My worst performer is Magna Terra Minerals whose closing cost is marked at .06 in my Schwab account but is actually .17 for yesterday. (They only make these “errors” in Customer Accounts and not in the their Trading quotes or Research)
Everything else is getting hit as if the price of metals is only our imagination.
Although the true price of Magna Terra is down, nothing can beat its 129% gain ( Only in customer accounts) because of the wrong closing price.
Now on the IBKR side Canadian Copper has gone ahead of the false Galantas price, so that part is good.
Largo, 15m, vanadium, baby…
Scorpio Gold, SGN, 1h… I bought more.
Santacruz, SCZ, 4h…
Very nice to see this news out that Santacruz finally moved to the big board in the US!
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Santacruz Silver to Start Trading on NASDAQ at Market Open Today
January 21, 2026
Santacruz Silver Mining Ltd. (NASDAQ:SCZM) (TSX.V:SCZ) (FSE:1SZ) is pleased to announce that its common shares will commence trading today on the Nasdaq Capital Market at market open, January 21, 2026, under the symbol “SCZM”. The Company’s common shares will continue to trade on the TSX Venture Exchange under the symbol “SCZ” and the Frankfurt Stock Exchange under the symbol “1SZ”.
https://santacruzsilver.com/santacruz-silver-to-commence-trading-on-nasdaq-at-market-open-today/
Silver, 1h, perfect touch and go off the longer term fork tine…
CTV, vanadium, baby!
Defiance Silver has doubled since last month:
https://schrts.co/rUdfbYBH
https://www.tradingview.com/x/qjL3tn5P/
Century Silver : Wedge Forming