Weekend Show – Markets and Metals – Featuring Jesse Felder and Rick Bensignor
On this Weekend’s Show we are joined by Jesse Felder and Rick Bensignor. With so much going on in the financial markets we focus on the sectors that are leading and the long term outlook for this new financial world. Whether we think this will last for months or years it’s important to understand where money is flowing.
Thank you all for listing to this Weekend’s Show. Let us know what you think of our guests and the companies we feature each week. Our email addresses are Fleck@kereport.com and Shad@kereport.com.
- Segment 1 and 2 – Jesse Felder, Founder of The Felder Report kicks off the show with a discussion on the importance of longer term interest rates and the Fed’s persistence of the Fed being behind the market. We are chat commodities recent reversal. Click here to keep up to date with Jesse’s investment strategies.
- Segment 3 and 4 – Rick Bensignor, President of Bensignor Investment Strategies wraps up the show with an initial focus on the shift we are seeing from the 40+ year bull market in bonds. It ties into how investors are forced to allocate money toward stocks. Click here to learn more about Rick’s investment products.
Exclusive Company Interviews This Week
- NG Energy – Looking At The Growth Profile For This Near-Term Colombian Nat Gas Producer
- Tier One Silver – Phase 2 Drill Program Coming At Curibaya, Updated Target Information
- Skeena Resources – Final 2021 Drill Results, Recapping New Discoveries and A Look Ahead To The Large 2022 Drill Program
- Eskay Mining – Final 2021 Drill Results Released, A Summary Of All The Results and A New Discovery
- Falco Resources – Project Overview And Development Update Of The Horne 5 Deposit
- District Metal – 3 Drill Programs Announced for the Tomtebo, Gruvberget, and Bakar Copper Projects 4
- Petrus Resources – An Introduction to This Growth-oriented Oil And Gas Producer In Alberta
- Troilus Gold – An Introduction To This 8 Million Ounce Gold And Copper Development Project In Quebec
I just went back and listened to this weekend show again and it’s personally one of my favorites that we’ve done in a while. Both Jesse and Rick took us around the horn to each of the key markets from US equities, to bonds & interest rates, to commodities with Oil and Base Metals and Agricultural commodities, to the US Dollar, Cryptos, and of course, to Gold and the PM mining stocks. Good stuff!
Are The Bond Vigilantes Back?
Jesse Felder – The Felder Report – March 16, 2022
“The long-term chart of the 30-year treasury yield may now be the most important chart in the world. For the past 30 years or so, the yield on the long bond has formed a fairly neat channel that has only been violated relatively briefly at times. The drop below 1%, at the height of the Covid panic, tested the lower end of that channel. Since then, it has reversed higher and now appears poised to test the upper end. This area also coincides with key horizontal resistance at 2.5% that dates back to the lows put in at the height of the Great Financial Crisis.”
‘The Long Run Can Be Long’
Jesse Felder – The Felder Report (03/19/2022)
Steve Hanke – Fed’s 25 bps Hike Won’t Reverse Inflation, Damage Will Last Until 2024
Kitco News – Mar 17, 2022
Steve Hanke – The Fed Is Flying Blindly and Can’t Fix This One Major Mistake
Stansberry Research – March 18, 2022
The United States is in a war right now and unfortunately, “we’ve weaponized the dollar-based financial system,” says Steve Hanke, Applied Economics professor at Johns Hopkins University and former Senior Economist on President Reagan’s Council of Economic Advisers. “This is not a free lunch,” when you impose sanctions on other nations, he says to our Daniela Cambone. Hanke asserts that Chairman Powell has failed to recognize that at the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic, “money supply measured by the Fed has gone up over 41%.” Hanke describes the current crisis the Fed is dealing with as a, “monetary bathtub overflowing,” seeping out into the economy as a main contributor of inflation. He concludes that the Fed’s actions are, “too little and too late,” and are also flying blind because, “they are not looking at the money supply.”
Gold Rises as Global Central Banks Raise Interest Rates
David Erfle – Friday March 18th, 2022
“As the Russia-Ukraine war continues with no end in sight, investors shifted their attention mid-week to the Federal Reserve’s expected move to end three years of a highly accommodative monetary policy. In anticipation of this historic event, the gold price came down to test critical support at $1900 this week while in the process of consolidating a $300 move higher from $1780 in late-January. Gold Futures ran towards record peak resistance at $2089 in early March, coming just $20 short of this major milestone and became extreme overbought while doing so…”
In regards to Steve Hanke, he contends that “The Fed didn’t realize the money supply had gone up more than 41% during and after the pandemic.” I find that statement incredulous, the inflation of credit is all The Federal Reserve has done since it’s inception. Nixon wouldn’t have taken The US off the gold standard if the Federal Reserve hadn’t been inflating credit. Of course Nixon wanted them to do that but it took The French under De Gaulle and other nations to point out that they couldn’t redeem their US currency for gold. The normal course for The Reserve banks at such a juncture would be to raise the rediscount rate, thus forcing up the price of money for speculative purposes. DT
The sanctions placed on Russia have shone a very bright light on The American dollar, and in particular the wealth that Americans have been given because of their status of World’s Reserve Currency. The rest of The World is now looking to devoid America of this privilege and soon a lot of US currency held in foreign banks will be turned into physical gold and held in those respective foreign jurisdictions.
The US dollar is doomed as all this currency starts to flood back home because it no longer holds value. The US banks will freeze the bank accounts of all it’s citizens until this mess can be sorted out. Look for a bank holiday that will last much longer than during the 1930’s. The American dollar has a very real chance of being worthless. STAY TUNED! DT
Those are some sobering thoughts to mull over on the US Dollar’s reserve status. However, when people raise this point about the dethroning of the greenback as the world reserve currency, then the question remains: What will replace the US Dollar as the world reserve currency?
Typically there is no answer to this other than Jim Rickard’s postulation of a multi-currency/commodity backed SDR…. but he’s been saying that for over a decade, and yet we still have the King Dollar… and for the time being the Petro Dollar.
Now the recent rise of sanctions may highlight and expedite the demise of the Petro Dollar, as countries could start trading Oil in other currencies or even Gold, but that still doesn’t explain which currency will be the new Reserve Currency. Will it be the Chinese Yuan? The European Euro? The Japanese Yen? The Canadian Loonie? I don’t think so….
There is a project called Sandman where 100 nations are coming together to drop The Americans Petrodollar status. Out of that meeting new ways will emerge for countries to trade independently of The American dollar. What steps they take won’t be long in coming because the financial system is broken. DT
Thanks DT. Yes, I saw OOTB post about that Project Sandman earlier in the week, and if implemented, it would be very negative for the US Dollar and likely bypass the Petro Dollar. But the question remains, what would be the new global reserve currency then?
If the US Dollar denominated assets did get frozen, in a 100 nation dump of the greenback, then it wouldn’t just punish Americans, it would disrupt all global trade as the US is still one of the largest consumer nations, and it would derail global stock markets, etc… It would be a real mess if that was implemented. However, it’s a good reminder to have some diversification into the precious metals, cryptos, or just other currencies as a contingency plan.
Why The Oil Price Will Decline, What’s Next For Gold And Why Silver Looks Good For The Long Term
Small Cap – Mar 18, 2022
“Gareth Soloway, chief market strategist of InTheMoneyStocks.com, joins Small Caps to discuss what the technical charts are showing may be next for the economy, stock market, gold, silver, bitcoin, uranium, oil, gas and more.”
Tony Greer: The Commodities Trade will Require a Creative Mindset
Mining Stock Daily w/ Trevor Hall – March 18, 2022
“TG Macro’s Tony Greer joins us for this week’s long-form episode where he and Trevor discuss this week’s events from the Federal Reserve, market reaction, bond yield reactions, and what the tape is showing us in the general commodities market. TG also talks about his gold position and how he’ll look to play the gold miners in this inflationary period.”
All the geopolitical turmoil appears to be orchestrated to coverup the criminal activity of Politicians and Central Banks.
Two things: “Didn’t see that coming” and “some other Dude did it”.
End result is that the people pay for the crimes of the perpetrators.
Matthew, you shared a chart for BTC on a previous thread (see below). What is your target? From what I gather, it seems to be 19K-20K. Is that correct? If so, any thoughts on timing? Cheers.
Marlborough, you are correct. 19k-20k would be my minimum target IF it would it would break down from here and close a week at about 34.5k or lower. Many price watchers would require a weekly close below at least the low weekly close of last July which is about 31,800. It has been in correction mode since mid November and is now turning up enough to make it an unappealing short so I wouldn’t bet against now even though it is not yet “all clear” for bullish bets either (in my opinion).
It will take a lot to turn that monthly chart bullish so this might be the start of another intermediate move up (at best) but that could still mean an impressive rise before turning down again. Even if the current bullish action falls apart next week, the 19k-20k level would still probably take several months.
If it gets above fork resistance around 43k, I’d then watch the 20 week MA above 46k followed by the more important price pivot above 48K.
Thank you so much, Matthew. Two cycles analysts whom I greatly respect are thinking along these lines: a new high (not all time high – maybe 52K to 60K) by late spring or early June, then dropping to an ICL or even a 1 to 2 year low in September. If so, a great opportunity to potentially go long, then short, then buy and hold.
You’re welcome, Marlborough, I hope your trading go well!
It was interesting to see Gold futures settle on Friday afternoon at $1921.55.
There’s that key price level again at $1921 coming in as support (again) like it did one day earlier in the week. There is still a lot of technical memory here as $1921 was the prior all-time high in gold in 2011, and then last year the $1920 area acted as resistance, when it was tagged as a key intermediate peak in May. Nice to see it shift from resistance to support.
Just earlier this week, Jordan Roy-Bryne had mentioned he’d like to see things close above $1920 for the week, and we can check that box. Also, Steve Penny, Christopher Aaron, and Craig Hemke have mentioned the importance of the $1920-$1921 area in prior interviews. It’s really great to have solid thought leaders sharing their ideas with us here at the KER.
For those that missed Jordan’s interview earlier this week where he mentioned the importance of seeing a weekly close above $1920, here it is:
Those “price” guys missed the fact that gold has been in the clear since a much lower price (and that’s ok).
Agreed. Technically Gold bottomed a year ago $1673 in March at that double-bottom we noted at that time (even though many remained skeptical of that low holding and were calling for a breakdown to the low $1600s and even high $1500s which never came to pass).
Really the big reversal for the PMs came coming out of the last day of Q3 trading in late September, when Gold, Silver, and GDX did that bear-trap, quickly reversed back out of the danger zones they were in closing back above potential break-down areas, and then started ratcheting higher ever since then.
Dave Erfle and I had discussed that the very next week that the quick reversal back up above key support areas at the end of Q3 may have marked the reversal in trend in the PM sector, and so far that is what has played out.
Personally, as noted here on the blog on a number of occasions, I had taken most of my tax loss sales early in July & early August, and was buying back positions sold in late August through September, and then did one more smaller round of tax loss sales in Nov/Dec to buy them back at year end or to kick of this year. So far the vast majority of those buys are still well in the green and they’ve been trending higher for a while (way before all this Ukraine geopolitical tension broke out a month ago).
The big all-clear I was referring to was momentum driven and happened in November and became clearer in early February.
Thanks Matthew. Yeah, what you outlined was more of the “all clear” and I remember your posts and charts about that and it was a good call.
What I was talking about was more where the sector turn happened on the last day of trading in Q3 (which was still up for debate at the time and wasn’t a glowing all clear… but it was significant what happened to close up that quarter).
Here’s a link to that interview Dave Erfle and I did on October 5th, where we discussed the reversal in trends to close Q3 for Gold, Silver, GDX, and we discussed the overbought conditions on the BPGDM.
From my perspective, and bringing in many technical factors, that is where the turn in the PM sector happened, and this was one of the key interviews I remember doing over the last year for where the worm turned.
David Erfle – Gold In Search Of A Turn Higher, And The Valuation Gap In GDX
Korelin Economics Report – October 5, 2022
“David Erfle, Founder and Editor of Junior Mining Junky, joins us to discuss the precious metals and the mining stocks. We review a few potential areas that could indicate a turn higher in the sector is possible, starting with the way the last day of the quarter traded above key gold price support. Next Dave highlights the low valuation of the GDX in relation to the current gold price, compared to where the gold price was when GDX was last at current price levels. We move on to the recent divergence in the gold equities and gold to the downward pressure in the general stock markets. We wrap up with what stage of miner Dave feels investors may rotate into first, once capital flows back into this small sector.”
I was also bullish at the late September low but calling price lows can be very different than getting the big-picture green light especially when we are talking about the miners on one hand and gold on the other.
HMY went up about 73% since this comment:
Oct 04, 2021 04:09 AM
HMY opportunity knocking…
Yes. 100% Matthew. Calling price lows is a perilous activity, and it is much better to see an all clear. For the record I wasn’t totally convinced yet in the week following the Q3 close either, but I was very constructive that a turn had happened, and it was the first time remembering feeling encouraged for a while at that point. It just stuck with me personally, as one of those significant moments in time that stood out as a key inflection point within the larger PM cycle.
I’d reflect back on this discussion with Dave Erfle a few more times as 2021 progressed and even into 2022, and it was one of the data points that gave me confidence personally that we were, in fact, at a key inflection point at the end of the Q3. It was also a contributing factor to why I was able to remain bullishly focused even in December when many mining stocks were back in the hurt locker, and kept me buying them into the weakness, because I believed the worst was already behind us in Gold, but specifically in Silver and in GDX.
Even on that day’s blog I had posted this message, but noted I still had some personal reservations about the technical warnings from Chris Vermeulen, Jordan, and Doc at the time. I wasn’t all-in bullish yet, but I would think back to the Sept 30th reversal of fortune quite often as things kept developing, and Dave Erfle and I went back to reference that chat above a few times over the last few months as where the sector turn did happen.
Oct 05, 2021 05:12 PM
“…good comments both today, and on yesterday’s blog regarding the potential for a bottom to form in the short to medium term in the PM sector. As covered in the discussion with Dave Erfle above, there are a few encouraging signs that have appeared over the last two weeks from the quarterly close, to the divergence in the PMs from the general stock markets, to the bombed out valuation in the GDX, and the low reading sub 20 on the BPGDM.”
Think oil price wwill slowly move back up to 130 on WTI . I have some oil stocks and lots of food stocks. World shortage of wheat . Bythe way during this war flour and granulated sugar in short supply in moscow . cube sugar still available at a 50% higher price . motor oil comes from hugary and rumania [ lukoil ] cant be shipped to russia . They may have to buy motor oil from china . Putins friend Trump is on the downslope now —he is a farce as a former president . Vote for sane people only . love to all r s hamilton
Russell, take your meds!
Russell takes his happy pills every morning or they won’t let him near the computer.
Interesting poll on goldtadise.com today. 82% of the triple jabbed think Putin is a war criminal vs 70% of the double jabbed vs 32% of the purebloods. triple jabbed=sheep=cannon fodder
It makes perfect sense, Bonzo. That’s how a thorough brainwashing works. The average person is wrong about virtually everything that matters.
“When even the brightest mind in our world has been trained up from childhood in a superstition of any kind, it will never be possible for that mind, in its maturity, to examine sincerely, dispassionately, and conscientiously any evidence or any circumstance which shall seem to cast a doubt upon the validity of that superstition. I doubt if I could do it myself. — Mark Twain, The Autobiography of Mark Twain
“Is there any point in public debate in a society where hardly anyone has been taught how to think, while millions have been taught what to think?” — Peter Hitchens
“Men fear thought as they fear nothing else on earth — more than ruin, more even than death. Thought is subversive and revolutionary, destructive and terrible, thought is merciless to privilege, established institutions, and comfortable habits; thought is anarchic and lawless, indifferent to authority, careless of the well-tried wisdom of the ages. Thought looks into the pit of hell and is not afraid… Thought is great and swift and free, the light of the world, and the chief glory of man.”
— Bertrand Russell, Why Men Fight
Mathew you are decidedly below average. The average person is far above you.
Speaking of ‘trained up from childhood in a superstition’ isn’t it time for your daily anti-communist rant?
Feel better? If not, perhaps getting some explanations for your confusion and anger will help. Try these:
“Collective fear stimulates herd instinct, and tends to produce ferocity toward those who are not regarded as members of the herd.” ― Bertrand Russell, Unpopular Essays
“It takes considerable knowledge just to realize the extent of your own ignorance.” — Thomas Sowell
If you are too stubborn to admit the validity of those as they relate to you, you can take solace in this one:
“Age gives you an excuse for not being very good at things that you were not very good at when you were young.” — Thomas Sowell
You’re welcome. Again.
Don’t worry Matthew, Bob Moriarity once said you were the best thing about this site.
And does that option exist Russell????……
sugar is not good for you…. wonder why there are so many fat asses in the ussa,………humm
Russell only bashes Trump like a broken record. He never mentions Hunter’s laptop, our border, Keystone Pipeline or political morons in office that could never make this country great again
hay ; Hunter biden was not and is not a government official of usa Trump was hes also an asshole who was praseing putin until 3 days ago . his love affair with dictator KIM INCLUDES LOVE LETTERS BACK AND FORTH TO KIM . Buzz grow up and realize Trump is a jerk who dammaged your party GOP OR TRUMPOP AS IT IS NOW . MY BROTHER IN LAW VOTED FOR BIDEN LAST TIME AFTER VOTEING FOR TRUMP BEFORE HE IS SO DISGUSTED WITH TRUMP NOW . REAL AMERICANS SUPPORT TH E UKRAINE PEOPLE NOT TRUMP—–PUTIN LOVE TO UKRANIE PEOPLE RSH
“If it be possible, as much as lieth in you, live peaceably with all men.”
Russell – I’ve asked nicely several times now for you to quit ranting about politicians and your T.D.S (especially in all caps) here on the economic blog. As mentioned repeatedly, if you want to share your opinions on politics, there is a political page here at the KER for those kinds of posts. The next time you do a post like that here, the comments are getting scrubbed.
I won’t be surprised if gold needs to take out Wednesday’s low before it goes higher.
Ira Epstein’s Metals Video (03/17/2022)
#TechnicalAnalysis #Gold #Silver #Copper #Platinum
Long Term 10-Year Yield Index : FOMC Rate Hikes Begin : Felder Chart
Good question BDC – How high will they get indeed?
The entire Russia Ukraine thing is just a staged media event. Putin and Zelensky are on the same side.
Zelensky is in front of a green screen, he is in a studio in Tel Aviv
He is an actor and thats the clue. Why is he wearing a T Shirt in the cold, Because he is in sunny Israel.
Z in Cyrillic is 33, which relates to Freemasonary
i wouldnt be surprised if not one person died.
its a staged event, a television media production, they are all actors, including Boris Johnson,
Thanks for the info…….. interesting….
Like in the USSA…… we have paid actors…..AOC…for sure, and I understand Candice Owens comes from the acting agency in Israel….
CIA handlers are everywhere…..
The Fed raised rates for the first time and the conventional markets yawned. The next rate raise is in May. The Fed will keep raising rates as long as the conventional markets don’t get absolutely crushed. Consumer prices will be in their crosshairs and they won’t do the old “Greenspan put” at the first sign of significant carnage. There should be more then 2-3 rate increases this time around (25 basis points).
(VZLA) Vizsla Silver Discovers New Vein Within the Napoleon Corridor Intersecting 1,169 G/T AgEq over 3.2 Metres at Panuco
March 17, 2022
An Example Silver Miner Portfolio
Don Durrett – Seeking Alpha – Mar. 17, 2022
– An example for creating your own silver miner portfolio.
– This portfolio was constructed over 15 years with the goal of preparing for a silver bull market.
– It includes my investment strategy that focuses on the diversification of silver assets to limit risk and maximize returns.
– It explains how I utilize an allocation strategy to achieve my investment strategy.
15 yrs…..seems like yesterday……… 🙂
It is not a recommended investment if you are risk-averse. You have to accept that silver and silver mine companies are speculative investments. This is for investors who are chasing alpha and accept the associated risk. Conversely, if your goal is to hedge, then GOLD…is a much better alternative.
:)””””” from the article….. GREAT Article………
Thanks for that additional excerpt from the article OOTB. Yes, I agree with Don that gold is likely the safer and less volatile sector versus Silver, but then again, that’s what interests me in Silver – the ability to move suddenly in either direction, creating buying and selling opportunities.
Don Durrett is a sharp resource sector investor, and I really liked how he constructed his Silver portfolio in that article highlighting the place for physical silver, then Silver ETFs, then large & mid-tier producers, then small producers, then developers, and finally some explorers. It is a compelling basket of miners he’s built and touches upon most of the solid companies in the space. Good stuff!
Lyn Alden Schwartzer – Seeking Alpha – Mar. 18, 2022
– An analysis of global supply chains and commodity markets in the presence of significant kinetic warfare.
– An overview of why sovereign reserve practices may start to shift towards more diversification and neutral reserve assets.
Did She change here name?….. almost over looked the article…….. 🙂
She goes by Lyn Alden most places, but on Seeking Alpha her handle has been Lyn Alden Schwartzer.
Yeah, very sharp lady and I try to look over each article she puts out, or check out many of her interviews, as she’s been one of the more grounded macroeconomic pundits calling things well overall for the last few years.
Criminal Monday day morning smash open. Check back after lunch when their bartender has had a chance to help them through their miserable lives.
Looks like over the last couple of weeks the direction of the “markets” is to assist the “shorts” exit bad bets. That is just as much illegal as making the General Markets always go up for 12 years. Good example is JPM and the “China Whale” fiasco.
Hi Lakedweller2 – Overall though, despite all the turbulence, many of the resource stocks in many sectors from the precious metals to base metals to energy stocks are nicely in the green today, so that is encouraging.
I still remember the days prior to JPM taking over the silver markets around 2008, that on a day when most all commodities were “green” in the paper markets, just about all the commodity stocks would be green. since the crash, the market makers (algo runners) became the market interveners instead of the market makers.
I have had some recovery lately from the 40+% hit since January, but only about 20% recovery. I still believe you are right about the hierarchy of movement from Majors/royalty to explorers, but I think there is also a requirement that those that are in the managed money accounts, ETFs, Indexes, etc have some “applied mathematical sponsored program assistance” are moving in all categories first. Just me. I also try to suspect someone in the process is a criminal as opposed to letting “free and fair markets” show the way. I try to avoid speeding trucks also.
Should mention that I have 45% green and 55% red. Tomorrow may be 55% green and 45% red.
I just trimmed some HL and SILJ to buy more KTN.
Today’s low for gold came very close to last Wednesday’s close nearly filling the rest of what I considered a $14.80 gap on Thursday.
Gaps should be measured from closing prices, not intraday (or intra any period) highs (or lows).
To be clear, I haven’t changed my view since posting it on Saturday:
I won’t be surprised if gold needs to take out Wednesday’s low before it goes higher.
GLD topped in 2020 43 weeks before the Canadian dollar topped then it bottomed in 2021 41 weeks before it bottomed. The C$ now looks great which makes sense since it usually does when the gold space looks great.
Thanks to all the KER guest contributors for another great week of daily editorials, company interviews with management, and another solid weekend show with Jesse and Rick.
Also thanks to all the listeners of the podcast and radio show, and those members of the KER crew that post and participate here on the blog, sharing insights with our community. Ever Upward!