A Balance of fear and massive liquidity in the system

February 6, 2020

Chris Temple joins me today to address the move higher in a wide range of assets. US markets, the US dollar, gold, and treasuries are all higher. As we discuss there is not one single reason for this. A balance of fear and too much liquidity is helping push risk on and risk off higher.

Click here to visit Chris’s site for more information on his newsletter.

    Feb 06, 2020 06:18 AM

    Trump will continue to force interest rates to zero.

    As interest rates go to zero, the cost of debt becomes less relevant.

    Trump’s second term will involve massive spending on re-building U.S. infrastructure.
    Eventually (MUCH LATER than you know there will be an international re-setting of debt, by national bank agreements.
    National banks, NOT INDIVIDALS, hold most low interest debt.

    Everything involving money is relative, not absolute. With China being relatively incapacitated, the rest of the world central banks will collude to expand debt.

      Feb 06, 2020 06:55 PM

      CFS. I think you are right ‘on the money’ pun intended. All this money creation will fuel stock market meltups. I’m uncertain just what will constitute ‘real money’ when the debt blows up. Gold/silver? I think so but just because ten thousand years ago cro-magnons arbitrarily chose precious metals doesn’t mean ten thousand years later crypto currency can’t be the replacement. Same process goes into making the decision.

      I enjoy your comments.

      Feb 18, 2020 18:31 PM

      CFS, you’re focusing on the cost of debt rather than the cost of holding interest rates at zero artificially. It’s called inflation and it is nothing but pure Marxian wealth redistribution or, to sane people, theft.
      When the right is so left, society is irretrievably screwed. Enjoy.

    Feb 06, 2020 06:35 AM

    It is may belief that the Whan Corona Virus was developed by China.
    It appears to target males over females in a 2:1 ratio.
    I do not know if the release was accidental (Probably) or deliberate.

    But the one-child policy of China historically has perturbed the distribution of population in China and was DESTINED TO CAUSE UNREST SOON.
    Could this be China’s attempt to quell this future unrest ? I do not know, but I wonder.
    I do know China is concerned with the size of its population.
    I do know that the nCoV virus seems to attack older population more than younger as well as males more than females.

    Feb 06, 2020 06:38 AM

    oops. I should read my comments and check for spelling!
    may > my
    Whan > Wuhan

    Feb 06, 2020 06:42 AM

    Meanwhile Google’s lies are being exposed:

    Feb 06, 2020 06:47 AM

    OT; does anyone know why Gary Savage stopped being interviewd here?
    I visit his site often and I must say heΒ΄s been spot on a lot of times.
    He was laughed at when he claimed Nasdaq = 10.000 = piece of cake, however he has been correct all along. HeΒ΄s been correct on the gold/miners too.


      Feb 06, 2020 06:17 AM

      Gary was harassed by some of the trolls…… ticked and left……

        Feb 06, 2020 06:19 AM

        Gary did contribute a lot to the KER….Not ever call is or was perfect, but, Gary got a lot correct……JMO

          Feb 06, 2020 06:04 PM

          As I recall Al asked him to leave.
          Said sumtin about Gary using the site for advertising.

          Feb 06, 2020 06:00 PM

          Thanks guys!
          As Ex said, almost every guest promotes his site, thats why they come here, isntΒ΄t it? Nothing is for free.
          However, to Garys defence Avi is known for being a bit, well some kind of jerk.

          As for the hecklers, I recall when he had his site open for comments, people were ruthless to him and they were really abnoxius, so he closed the comment section. Then those guys started a website just to spread vile things, like that time he was caught with a gay-porn site in his window.

            Feb 06, 2020 06:06 PM

            In the old days, he used to post articles at different gold sites using different names. Remember Toby Conner?

            Feb 06, 2020 06:19 PM

            Haha, yeah, I forgot about that one.

            Like every guy in the buisness, and like so many being interviewd here and elsewhere, he always seem to beat the markets, buys at lows and sells at/near the top. Every. Single. Time.
            Thats a bit tiresome.

            To the hecklers defence, I gotta say he sure looks like a guy who would visit sites he was caught with.
            I mean, just look at the picture, for Fox sake πŸ™‚

            Feb 06, 2020 06:21 PM

            Ah, the good ol’ days!

            And you can go back to the even better ol’ days!

            You boys remember Roger???

            How about Paul Van Eeden??

            Feb 06, 2020 06:36 PM

            I agree, Miklo. I hadn’t seen that pic! 😳

      Feb 06, 2020 06:42 PM

      Gary S. was interviewed here for some time, but there were a few posters here like birdbrain/farmer that kept openly harassing him, at the same time he got into a big spat with Avi Gulburt on the forum and it got ugly from booths sides.

      Then there was some bet for a steak dinner between hand Doc and he lost, but there were few heckling him about being wrong in the short-term, and he go upset about it. He said he was going rock climbing, but then never came back, but started throwing stones at the KER from his platform, and both sides called it quits. Big Al mentioned Gary was just using the site to market for his site, but that is true of most of the guests on the show, so that didn’t hold much water.

      It is a shame because Gary has some unique analysis, and it is understandable that he didn’t like the heckling from Avi and site trolls, but he also got pretty nasty in return.

        Feb 06, 2020 06:51 PM

        I still go over to Gary’s site periodically just get his perspective, and posted on his blog a few times, but a few people there were also pretty harsh on the KER, the other guest speakers, and it seemed a bit spiteful. I like some of the folks in his forum though, and read some of the comments from time to time.

        Feb 06, 2020 06:55 PM

        Ex, Gary never did buy me that steak dinner. I knew Gary personally and I enjoyed meeting him. I felt he added a lot to the site and as you say, I also visit his site occasionally to see what he feels about the precious metals. His technical methodology is different then what I use but I’ve often folded it into my musings.

          Feb 06, 2020 06:07 PM

          Doc, it’s a shame you never got that steak, as you won the bet fair and square, and it seemed to be all in good fun. However, things took a turn for the worse and there were just too many coming after him at once, so he got defensive.

          He dug in harder on the manipulation theories, and Avi dug in on there being no manipulation, and Gary took his ball and went home.

          I think we were better off having his analysis here, and he was also getting a much larger audience here, so it seemed synergistic for all parties. However, he was pretty unfair and unprofessional in his comments about the KER and the audience here and Big Al did a hard break. Reminds me if what happened with Peter Grandich, Roger Wiegand, and Jay Taylor as well.

          Ever upward!

        Feb 06, 2020 06:24 PM

        Ex…you ought to write a book…”The History of KER” πŸ™‚

        You are the official KER historian…future generations will look to you for the KER wisdom!

          Feb 06, 2020 06:03 PM

          Ex……would make a great author……I agree Ex should write the History OF KER……

            Feb 07, 2020 07:23 AM

            Ebola & OOTB – Thanks guys, you’re cracking me up. πŸ™‚

            Chapter 1 – The Big Al is smitten with Kitco
            Chapter 2 – Roger Weigand & Peter Grandich
            Chapter 3 – Eddy Ebolan, Jerry…The Long…OOTB, IrishTony – Three Amigos laugh and greet the people
            Chapter 4 – Matthew the chart jedi
            Chapter 5 – CFS2000 blazing his own trail
            Chapter 6 – DT is a technology prophet and awaits the replacement of humans with robots
            Chapter 7 – BB and b, not to be confused with Bonzo Barzini
            Chapter 8 – MarkedtoFuture, Chartster, Wolfster, SilverDollar, Dan calgary, Glenfidish, Skeeta, Tad, Andrew the Rev / Archdeacon Andrew, Dennis M. O’Neil, Vortex, FranSix, Dragonite, John W. Robertson, Gabriel, Bob UK, Jerry(Gator)M, JJ, benb, Paul L, russell s hamilton, James(the lesser), Mark Alan, proud canuck, Irwin, Keep Stacking, Jason, Silverbug Dave, jhpace1, Mike, JMiller, 4 oz, Stephan B Feibish, Wayne, victor, Steele
            Chapter 9 – Doc Charlie goes from blog to daily editorials
            Chapter 10 – Cory is boy wonder, Big Owl is the dark knight
            Chapter 11 – The Good Ole Days – Rick Ackerman, Chris Temple, Doc Postma, Gary Savage, Jay Taylor
            Chapter 12 – Bob Moriarty – wise, witty, well-informed
            Chapter 13 – Enter The Crazies – Who the hell is Fanky?; apoclapse w/ HeavyHitter, Crazy Marc and the Baltic Dry Index, Birdman becomes Farmer, TraderJake is a snake, conspiracies w/ JohnK, DeepPurpleHaze hates Turd Ferguson, Bo Polony is full of baloney, and the near implosion of the blog
            Chapter 14 – Goodbye Gary, Hello LPG & Avi
            Chapter 15 – Sean Brodrick, David Morgan, Rick Rule, John Kaiser, Jeff Deist, Ron Stoeferle, Jeffrey Christian, Brien Lundin, Peter Hug, John Rubino, Axel Merk, Adrian Day, George Gero, Brent Cook, Byron King, Jayant Bhandari, Peter Boockvar,
            Chapter 16 – Cory is doing great hosting the investing interviews full time – A Star Is Born
            Chapter 17 – KER politics – the debate never ends…
            Chapter 18 – Dana Lyons, Dan Oliver, Marc Chandler, Trader Vic, Jesse Felder, David Erfle, Joe Mazumdar, Lobo Tiggre, Michael Belkin, Turd Ferguson-Craig Hemke, Jordan Roy-Byrne, Chris Vermuelen, Erik Wetterling, Rick Bensignor, Mike Larson, Chris Kimble,
            Chapter19 – Jim McKinney, Chris Martenson, Harlan Ulman, Dr John Huber, Jeff Pontius, Jeff Deist, Ronald Kessler, Stephen Gregory, Charlotte Cuthbertson, Michael Stumo, Daniel McAdams, Valentin Schmid, Dr Freida
            Chapter 20 – Cryptos, Cannabis, and eSports – there goes the speculative money away from the Resource Sector, Sentiment Wash
            Chapter 21 – Spanky gets cranky, then takes a nap
            Chapter 22 – Make new friends, but keep the old… one is Silver, and the other’s Gold – Wolfster, Charles, Ozibatla, Marty, David, Buzz, Blue, GH, pete, Tad, Miklo, Thomas, CaliJoe, Nigel, BDC, spacenormal, Anders from Copenhagen, blazesb, Chatyak, cmc, pardu, Larry, MadeOfRubber, Mickey Mantle, janturco, johnnygeneric, Bill in Tokyo, Bill, kingstonbill, Chris from OZ, Ulf, Marlborough
            Chapter 23 – Everyone gets rich from 2020-2022
            Chapter 24 – The Future – Investors, Listeners, and Readers that haven’t even found the KE Report yet carry the torch forward
            Chapter 25 – Cory’s daughter becomes the new guest host after graduating from college with a communications degree.

            Feb 07, 2020 07:31 AM

            I’m sure I forgot some folks in that should be mentioned in that KER book… I just thought confused and Wiseguy for example, but it’s a start…. πŸ˜‰

            Feb 07, 2020 07:21 AM

            Ex, that is almost as long as your PM holdings.

            Feb 07, 2020 07:06 AM

            Miklo – Hehe – Good one! Yes, that was almost a long as my portfolio holdings. πŸ˜‰

            Feb 07, 2020 07:30 AM

            That is a GREAT LIST……………The book is in progress………sign me up for the 1st addition…, and do not forget to autograph it……….. πŸ™‚
            Oh, I will need additional copies……for Frank From Moscow……lol

            Feb 07, 2020 07:58 AM

            Haha! Yes but of course we’ll have a special copy reserved for Frank From Moscow. πŸ˜‰

    Feb 06, 2020 06:54 AM

    The million dollar question “When will sanity return to the financial markets?” Of course the answer is always when they are forced to acknowledge the reality of the situation they find themselves in.
    Corporations have been eliminating pension systems and opting instead for a 401K match. This is guaranteed liquidity provided by the working middle class of America for the stock market only to be scalped by the Wall Street Algo’s. When the shit hits the fan the Corporations will wash their hands and blame some one else for their employees misfortune.
    Here is a quote from the United States President dated June 15, 2019
    ” The Trump economy is setting records, and has a long way up to go..However, if anyone but me takes over in 2020 ( I know the competition very well) there will be a Market Crash the likes of which has not been seen before! KEEP AMERICA GREAT
    Like Chickens Voting For Colonel Sanders

    Feb 06, 2020 06:30 AM

    More about Burisma scandal.

    Feb 06, 2020 06:29 PM

    If you are interest in political malfeasance and corruption Dan Bongino is always worth listening to, but this part of today’s program focuses on Uranium One and the soon-to-be-in-jail criminal and traitor, Hillary Clinton.

    Feb 06, 2020 06:19 PM

    DOW JONES 31OOO ! GOLD 1900 $ ! Chris ?

    Feb 06, 2020 06:46 PM

    Re: De Grey mining DEG.AX

    @aussiebattler @Aurmon if Mallina was one pit than it’s a no-brainer but it isn’t so until there is confirmation of continuity at Hem the mkt will be a bit cautious. If results for the next 50 holes confirm continuity and extends mineralisation another 320m to the east then mkt cap is >$200m because then there is one big pit at Hemi and several satellites that add ore down the track. But now it’s a question of what price will DEG be taken out at if there is >5moz in total including 1.5moz at 3g/t at Hemi (based on 30m true width and allowing 100m either end along strike and +5om downdip). At 200m down dip & 40m TW resource is ~3moz! Potential is huge gievem the length of the fault zone – 220km! – and the local geology at Hemi – ~7km potential strike. Do your math but the final result is possibly bigger! #mbgtrends

      Feb 07, 2020 07:43 AM

      Wow Ex! Incredible summary/breakdown…

      Thanks for the recognition and also great πŸ˜†. We do have a unique group in here and as the years have gone by its has always been a place with open arms and food for thought unlike any. So a big thanks to al and Cory and all the contributors thoroughly the years.

      Doc I also agree with you and ex that Gary all aide offers great value along with that system he uses of

        Feb 07, 2020 07:09 AM

        Hi Glenfidish – Yes, agreed. Big Al and Cory and all the KER contributors have created a unique platform of sharing information, ideas, breaking news, with a little bit of tomfoolery mixed in for good measure. It’s a motley crew for sure!

          Feb 07, 2020 07:35 AM

          Ditto……….IF, OWL does not comment on the above book , we will just change the name…….LOL

            Feb 07, 2020 07:55 AM

            How about we call it LOL – The BOOT and the Long Claw?

            Feb 07, 2020 07:30 AM

            Ha,ha……. good one…..but, that might be excessive and might even be abusive… πŸ™‚

            Feb 07, 2020 07:55 AM

            Good point – How about “Big Owl – Adventures in Wonderland”

            Feb 07, 2020 07:56 AM

            …. or KERland….

            Feb 07, 2020 07:13 AM

            How about:

            “KER – Two Guys, a Radio Blog, and a Dream”

            Feb 07, 2020 07:15 PM

            I think we can just keep the original title……..The History of Ker…….
            although, the above might make some additional good chapters…….

            Feb 07, 2020 07:19 PM

            I think some of the additional titles suggestion, might make a good second book…..We know the first book is sure to sell out, in advance of printing…… especially, if there are any graphs and charts……. πŸ™‚

            Feb 07, 2020 07:09 PM

            Yeah, that’s sound advice OOTB.

            The History of the KER is set to be an International best seller, crammed with charts and graphs, and pictures of owls. Sure to be a conversation piece on coffee tables across the globe. (LOL!)

    Feb 07, 2020 07:51 AM

    Sorry did not finish previous post. I meant Gary’s cycles system which is a very good tool. Gary is an asset like Matthew, ex, doc, and many others.

    With that being said I hope someday he can return an al is open to that idea. Not sure if Gary would return here and there but sometimes coming back to where it all started is a good feeling like the rock and wwe lol.

    By the way ex you forgot one more contributor who was a gentlemen at all times.


    P.s been buying the last week including yesterday and today with some orders. I’ve beefed up and added two more companies.

      Feb 07, 2020 07:17 AM

      Agreed on the value in Gary’s cycles process and charting. It offered interesting analysis, to pair along side of folks like Matthew, Doc, Avi, Chris Vermuelen, Rick Ackerman, and Jordan Roy-Byrne for a technical perspective.

      I’m not sure if Gary would ever want to come back or if Big Al/Cory would invite him back, but at least he was here during the most significant period ending the bear in 2015 and kicking of the Baby Bull in 2016, and it was an interesting chapter in the KER chronicles.

      Thanks for the kind words and nice to hear you are adding and beefing up positions. I’m looking for any further weakness in quality names to possibly add a bit more myself, but am mostly just holding through the current period with most positions.

      Ever Upward!