Gold, The Perplexing Situation the Fed Is In, And A Focus On Lithium
Sean Brodrick, Analyst at Weiss Ratings and Editor of Wealth Wave, joins us to discuss the precious metals, the perplexing situation the Fed is in proposing tapering, and a deeper dive into the battery metals sector. We kick things off with a discussion on the recent rebound in gold, and how this may tie into the recent focus on whether the Fed will taper it’s accommodative policies.
Next we shift the conversation to the recent bounce in commodities, and the opportunities in the raw materials that support the battery, clean energy, and EV space. We wrap up with a focus on the lithium sector, and Sean provides some ETFs and individual stocks that he likes.
The One Chart That Shows EV Sales Will Shift Into Overdrive
by Sean Brodrick | August 26, 2021
https://wealth-wave.com/wealth-wave/one-chart-shows-ev-sales-will-shift-overdrive/
The Coming Gold Rush In Battery Metals
Sean Brodrick – Presentation given at The Money Show
https://finance.weissratings.com/media/images/newsletters/2021/BatteryMetals082421.pdf
Funny trading day when Powell The Magnificent speaks. 15 minutes into trading and over half my stocks show no trading. What game is this? Not even my low bidding stirs them to trade.
Put a bid in more than the ask on a cheap one. That doesn’t work. Could be they don’t monitor on full time basis. ???
So they raised the Ask above my price, I met their Ask and still wouldn’t sell. I cancelled.
David, the same damm thing happened to me.
FWIW: The one I was trying to add to was New Age Metals. Price was below 10 cents in US and Eric Sprott bought about $2 mil worth of shares. That caused a pop. For those ES followers, you may be interested. Very early stage. I own a few, but elected not to add.
We had Harry on from New Age Metals a few months back, and they’ve been putting out some interesting news so maybe we should reach back out to have them back on. I had a position in them earlier in the year, but have sold out of most of my PGM stocks now, after nice runs in them, to rotate more in the precious metals as they are on the clearance rack.
Some years ago, on a Wednesday of the annual Jackson Hole confab, I seem to remember an online podcast interview about activity on the CBOE. In an hour spread roughly between 8 and 9 AM, first some 800 put option contracts were dumped on the market, then 40-45 minutes later, another 1400 put contracts. That drove the gold price below a certain tipping point which triggered more selling. Any connection between this and the people meeting in Jackso Hole? Who knows?
I guess Powell doesn’t speak until Friday. However they are pumping possible reduction in bailouts in the October to November timeframe…and then it will move further out…then further out…
Correct. Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole is on Friday, and as noted on one of the other blogs today, most expect it to just be his acceptance speech for another term, and overall a nothing burger. We’ll see how it goes, but it is more likely that the Fed meeting in September (and those are typically on Wednesdays) may be more significant with guidance on if they will actually taper, by how much, and what the timeline is.
anticipated gdx low vol.test…looks successful on gdx…buy mortimor…better probability/conviction of institutions has now been verified…last and weakest longs extracted from positions…let it run….
Larry, I’m glad you bothered to point that out today because I might have otherwise missed the fact that you nailed it. Today’s low so far is just 4 cents (.12%) below the price you wanted to see retested…
On August 23, 2021 at 12:23 pm,
larry says:
i just want to see gdx retest the high of 8/19 on much lighter volume for me to get full in nugt….That high is 31.45……That also would be a test of the upper channel line…….and that would fulfill a retest of the OUL at 31.80……then i would go for it….for the trade to target 35.82 high volume high re-test…
thanks Matthew…I value your recognition……You do not miss much I have noticed!……..Remember your approach gives me tons of incited my method misses…so thanx!
Thanks Larry, I’m glad you’ve been able to find value in such a different approach from yours. It’s a testament to your knowledge and experience with the charts!
back at 10 minute chart …we are retesting the 9;40 AM high vol price barcharacteristic….if price fails i actually think something is wrong for some reason…glta
Speaking as someone that doesn’t know, but it may be possible that our Volume issues are MMs holding prices above the market’s willing to pay. This of course would give a false impression. I have been making various kinds of offers all day and looking at level 2 and in many instances offers have been below Ask, but the prices remain frozen. Now that could be good in that they anticipate Powell to bump up prices or it could be bad that they are forcing low sales to rationalize algo hits on the downside. Just some unprovable thoughts about the strange trading today.
I should add that I have Schwab and they be making their own market and not consistent with the OTC. Just another thought. Anyway, I have been above the “Schwab” Ask for an hour or so on Big Ridge and crickets.
So I checked the Canadian price and did the conversion and then made the round off on my Ask to match the conversion round-off to try that option. Nothing happened. Well whatever Powell says or is interpreted to have said or guessed as to what was said, I guess it is a non event if my trade just sits.
I have been watching Group Ten and Ask has been sitting at .254 on the OTC and .2537 on Schwab. Average daily share volume is around 175,000. Today thy have two trades totalling 6500 shares and a .25 sale price. Nobody offering over .25 in level 2. Price frozen. No volume as a result Very strange. Previous close .2466.
Very strange: at same time, a sale occurred in Group Ten at .2499 and I got half filled under my Bid in Big Ridge. All of a sudden, trading starts
Excellent- EXN… Only approximately 30 million shares outstanding??Maybe my math is bad. The company has been around for 20 plus years. They must have done a severe rollback in the past.
Hi Ann, I added back my EXN on Monday at $1.82, as it was one that had been hammered down and I had sold it in mid-July for a tax loss sale.
I’m still encouraged by their huge exploration upside potential at Platosa in Mexico, Kilgore in Idaho, and Silver City in Germany.
We’ve had the CEO Brendan on the KE Report a few times earlier this year, and I had reached out to him recently on the back of the high grade drill intercepts at Platosa, but he mentioned they are still working hard at a few different drill programs and will come back on once they get more completed and some of the assays back. Fingers crossed!
Here is that recent news on the Excellon drill result from last week in Mexico.
_______________________________________________________________________________
(EXN) Excellon Drills 1,828 g/t Silver Equivalent Over 5.2 Metres at Platosa
by @newswire on 18 Aug 2021
https://ceo.ca/@newswire/excellon-drills-1828-gt-silver-equivalent-over-52
10 minute chart shows a normal.59% retracement on light volume…If the structure holds we now have an AB=CD up on this time frame….If this ABC up is the pattern predominance over time then it will then appear to be a choppy ride up due to each periodic intra-day retacement …Rather than say a rocket ship up sort of unrelenting no retracement move…my 2 cents…worthless 2..lmao
Hey Ex, great interview, good points made by you and Sean Broderick! Keep up the good work. DT
Hi DT. Thanks man, much appreciated.
Yes, Sean is fun to talk to because he follows and invests in such a range of sectors (as do I) so we get to dig in to some of the more niche sectors, which is a nice break from discussing gold, bonds, and the general markets each day.
I’ve been a passionate investor in the Lithium space for over a decade now, and try to stay abreast of the main players, but Sean does great work and really offered up investors here a great watchlist of ETFS and stocks in the Lithium sector to follow up on. Hopefully that gave investors a few places to look and do more due diligence on their own if they want to get some exposure to the Lithium sector.
Cheers!
Orocobre-Galaxy merger completed; company sees continued strong pricing
Aug. 25, 2021 – Seeking Alpha
“Orocobre (OTCPK:OROCF) and Galaxy Resources (OTCPK:GALXF) have completed their merger, and will be rebranded as Allkem, the fifth-largest global producer of lithium.”
“Orocobre produced 12,611 metric tons of lithium carbonate for FY 2021 ended June 30, up 6% Y/Y, with battery grade lithium carbonate production comprising 48% of total output vs. 24% in the prior year.”
“Strong Chinese lithium demand continues to push up global prices and recent reported spot sales for spodumene showed realized prices of more than $1,000/mt,” CEO Martin Perez de Solay says, according to S&P Global Platts.
Lithium Miners News For The Month Of August 2021
Aug. 25, 2021 – Matt Bohlsen
Lithium prices were up strongly again the past month. Lithium prices are well positioned to enter the “Long Bull Market”.
Lithium market news – “Buy everything!” JPMorgan bullish on lithium miners.
“Benchmark’s Lithium ion Battery Mega-factory Assessment now reads 225 plants and rising.”
“SQM lifts global lithium demand outlook, sees 40% rise this year.”
“Tianqi, IGO produce first Australian lithium hydroxide for batteries.”
“Galaxy Resources merger with Orecobre completed (1 GXY share became 0.569 ORE shares). ”
“Pilbara Minerals sells 5.5% spodumene at a recent record of US$1,250/t on its new Battery Metals Exchange platform.”
Rio Tinto-led Plan For Major Lithium Mine Stirs Protests In Serbia
Reuters | August 26, 2021
https://www.mining.com/web/rio-tinto-led-plan-for-major-lithium-mine-stirs-protests-in-serbia/
This latest from David Morgan might cause quite a stir if it actually happens. Better listen: https://marketsanity.com/banks-to-seize-your-money-in-coming-financial-crisis-warns-david-morgan/
Silver still looks great versus gold.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV%3AGLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=7&dy=0&id=p65990427893&a=1008354500
Silver just went green. Up a cent and a half at 12:47 MST.
That’s what we want to see. SLV is up .23% while GLD is down .98%
TLT is going down for awhile versus GLD…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TLT%3AGLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p60783037046&a=995067966
Why vaccine passports are illegal in Canada (and obviously the US)
https://www.brighteon.com/07717c27-870a-4fcb-aaf5-ed81b36c55d9
Novo Resources is not recovering like many anticipated. I would say it has a good shot at a substantial recovery once the smoke clears on his downturn in gold equities. Any significant downturn in the stock indices if gold equities remain at these oversold levels will not be affected substantially at all. Very little. Infact, I expect an explosive turnaround if that happens. If gold equities going into a stock market indices major down turn at high levels, then you can expect huge sell-off with major losses.
If history is any guide, that’s the most likely outcome. What do I know, I’ve only been around the gold market for decades. Actually, that could mean absolutely nothing although it does give me some advantage.
Addendum to the above comments.
Novo resources was in real trouble months ago as I said because the stock could never rally. It’s been stuck at depressed levels for a long time many moons. It’s been dead money a long time and a loser.
A major trading rule never to be ignored of a stock that can’t go up and stuck for a very long time, the only alternative is for it to go down and that’s exactly what it’s been doing.
The only hope is for the whole sector to recover substantially.
Good comments Holy Grail, and yes, Novo has definitely been under pressure for the last 2 years, as they transitioned from just an explorer, to a producing company, which is a big milestone for any company. In addition, they have further advanced their metallurgical studies, ore-sorting studies, continued exploring their huge land package and multiple projects, and have a solid registry of other mining stock securities in the hopper.
I was out of the Novo story until December of last year, and I’ve added more tranches in March, April, July, and this month in August to the position, because I’m seeing the production progress I want to see at Beaton’s Creek, and consider the rest all icing on the cake for an eventual re-rating.
It’s been a rough slog for Novo, but if you caught the recent webinar Cory did with their team, they laid out their strategy very clearly, and then last week Cory hosted a follow up interview with Quinton and Rob to address the myriad of questions that came in from investors. I’m seeing more organization and company strategy in place to really start getting some traction, so while they’ve been in the hurt locker lately, medium to longer term I’m personally impressed with their guidance and upcoming work slated.
Fantastic information and analysis Ex
I know it has great prospects I was really interested in myself but I looked at the trading and I couldn’t find any reason to buy it because it refused to rally and it was stuck just completely stuck so then I thought it was just dead money and I would lose money because it had no choice but to go down and refused to rally.
It’s probably in a bottoming process but it’s going to need the whole sector to help it recover because I don’t believe it’s going to do it on its own without a significant rally in the sector as a whole.
Another problem that Nova has as they should probably get an NYSE ticker and listing. That OTC is garbage and that’s not helping the stock. In fact, I believe it’s hindering any prospects for anything at all. I realize all the protocols with the OTC listing connected to the Toronto blah blah. Any investor that has any knowledge in the stock market you don’t want OTC. This is a really stupid move on Novo’s part. They need to get on the NYSE. That’s one reason I won’t even touch it but I know it has great prospects and I’m glad I’m not in it. It’s trading horribly.
Q: Why don’t they list in Australia where they are most active?
A: The Aussies would see through their bullshit very quickly.
Terry, they’re most active in Australia I don’t follow the stock that closely I just don’t like how it’s trading as I stated. What’s the BS is Novo being hyped wouldn’t surprise me.
Maybe Ex can elaborate on all this. Something doesn’t add up with this stock the way it’s trading. The prospects we’re so great why is it still being hammered.
I haven’t looked into all this but the stock’s trading like a POS. What gives. Looks like pump and dump to me.
Australia is the land of flies, pies and bullshit so they can smell it and spot it from great distances. Ex may not appreciate my take but I think it is very telling that they don’t list there.
So in other words Nova doesn’t pass the smell test.
I believe it, it’s trading like it’s being hyped because it doesn’t go anywhere. The stock has been toxic for a very long time.
NYSE they don’t list there either maybe for the same reasons.
Terry, I respect you right to your opinion, but the executives at Novo addressed why they didn’t have both and ASX listing in the webinar they did with Cory, and as for the NYSE listing, I believe down the road, once they meet the listing requirements and have the extra funds to throw at it, that they are likely to get the dual listing. There are stringent requirements to list on the big board with the NYSE and the vast majority of all mining stocks are not listed on the NYSE for that very reason. There are only about 20 Gold & Silver companies with the dual listing, and then another dozen or so base metals stocks with NYSE listings, so this is not just a Novo issue.
Holy Grail, I’d agree with your assessment that technically, the price action in Novo has been weak for the last 2 years, but as mentioned above, I believe the solid fundamental improvement of the company and their journey into production and in utilizing the Steinert KSS 100F LIXT fine mechanical sorting unit at Comet Well and the adjoining 100% controlled Purdy’s Reward property, will eventually get the company re-rated, even if the PM sector trends sideways.
I also agree that in a more bullish scenario that most gold stocks will snap out of their downward slides technically, and get more investors and analysts looking at the actual fundamentals of many developers and producers, as there are plenty of good companies that have taken a drubbing over the last year…. not just Novo.
As for Nova – that is Nova Royalty, a Copper and Nickel royalty company, so big distinction between Nova and Novo.
For anyone looking for facts about Novo and their company strategy and actual progress, here is a link to the webinar that Cory did with Quinton, Rob, and Ronan.
________________________________________________________________________________
Novo Resources (TSX.V: NVO) | Company Update with Management
August 9th, 2021
“CEO Rob Humphryson, CFO Ronan Sabo-Walsh and Co-Chairman Dr. Quinton Hennigh sit down with Cory Fleck of the KE Report to give a management update from the Nullagine Gold Project in Western Australia.”
Excellent feedback Ex and further analysis
Nova’s going to definitely need an overall sector market recovery otherwise it’s more of a down trend in the stock. At this point in time, since they can’t get on the big board NYSE I’ve lost my enthusiasm for the stock. OTC listed companies I’d rather not speculate.
So there’s 2 Novo’s I had no idea. I’m not proactive searching out mining companies anyway most of them are garbage. A little darlings that we’re overlooked we’re the South Africans that have done extremely well over the last year. Those were my favorites but the political risk was getting very challenging. They did very well anyway. All the news in South Africa was just a lot of fear porn. That was we’re the money was in gold miners though. No mention of it here on this site very very little I never saw anything. Completely glossed over. I’m not here that much anyway so I don’t know but I never saw anything. Everyone here missed out on the South Africans miners.
To make even matters worse for this entire sector we have a madness mindless of crowds chasing worthless assets. I’m referring to deadbeat companies in the stock market that are supported by criminal artificial stimulate fraudulent policies by the cabal central planners. Then, worsening everything again on top of everything else, you have the mindless madness of crowds chasing the worthless hedges now instead of precious metals in cryptocurrencies.
Precious metals have a lot of headwinds ahead with all these fraudulent policies and the cabal stands ready to keep hammering precious metals regardless if it’s illegal and fraudulent. The SEC is a worthless branch of the government as well as now the FDA.
The jaw boning is useless without actions. Actions speak louder than words and we have no actions everything’s fraud.
That’s not going to change anytime soon unless this system crashes and burns because they are not going to let up. When that happens, there’s no benefit to anyone no matter how many gold bars you own and mining companies. Those are the headwinds and they’re real.
No matter how many newsletter writers and analysts project the future of precious metals they will never represent the real state that the market is in including all the headwinds because they’re always going to pitch what people want to hear. They’re all very ignorant as well. They’re all just snake oil salesman. They keep raking it in with subscriptions while everyone else lives on their fictitious analysis with hopes and pipe dreams.
yes HG market gurus make multiple calls hoping something sticks, then point
to it as their ticket to ride.
it defies any logic that anyone who can call the market with surgical precision would rely on subscriptions, better still give it away for free.
gold equities simply not flavor of choice, they wii be, best to wait with an actual turn, than continually hopr and guess.
The cabal wants your money in stocks indices and real estate and that’s just the way it is. Everyone must recognize that. You would have to be in complete denial and a total ignoramus.
Trump was our last hope for free markets and we never received that at all. In fact quite to the contrary the exact opposite.
Precious metals especially the hedges like gold and silver have a lot of major headwinds because look who’s in office. We don’t have free markets and it’s been a long time since we’ve had price discovery. Intervention never seen before in history. Complete fraud and it’s only going to get worse so what’s going to happen to the real hedges precious metals we’ll see what happens but I wouldn’t be counting my chickens at all. Never have and in precious metals right now it has many things going for them as many things bad. The cabal is winning with all their fraud and what is that going to mean for precious metals. We have a public that’s completely mindless and brainwashed. That’s not going to change anytime soon and neither is the fraud it’s just getting worse.
Hello jonsyl, all I can do is count the odds and if they’re not up at 95% or better I don’t live on hopes at all. We just have a lot of headwinds and people need to recognize that if you read my post below. If people who want to trade short-term has nothing to do with this analysis I’m presenting here. More of a buy and hold strategy over at least 6 months or longer. It’s a known fact that traders all lose money eventually very high percentage. Brokerage accounts go to almost zero.
In this case my comments above should read.
“Read my post above”
The cabal wants everyone on board this crazy train. “”Greed””FOMO is driving folks to the slaughterhouse. This is everyone’s destination. Complete herd mentality.
I know the reasons why. Do you ?
Don’t know about cabal, just old fashioned greed, folks wanting to make a buck at somebody’s expense. Been the case since the beginning of mankind.
The cabal is the current phantom which those on the losing end blame to help cope with being on the losing side. LOL
Markets are a casino for most folks, where a speculation turns into an investment when they refuse to sell a loser, or accumulate more of them on a double down like at a casino.
Couldn’t agree more with all aspects of your commentary. Although, this is the largest monumental gargantuan speculative bubble in the history of the world. Interest rates have never been lower and how many years going back as far as you want to go 5,000 years.
Even though they say interest rates can’t go up and that is true because of the speculative bubble they need to keep that ponzi scheme in place or society would implode with a big bang. I’ll just refer to a common example or analogy and it’s like holding a ball underwater sooner or later interest rates are going to go bolt. Maybe they can contain it. I’m in the opinion very doubltfully. This can still go on for a very long time however I’m not betting on it. None whatsoever and no debt at all. It’s a huge historical speculative bubble and it walks like one and quacks like one. I have absolutely no FOMO because in this environment it takes conviction with your discipline and you need to be very vigilant knowing the consequences when this implosion takes place in the financial markets. In society as a whole for that matter. It’s going to be extremely painful.
Say hello to Jamie…
Faster, Lithium, Faster!
by Sean Brodrick – August 21, 2021
“If you’re not investing in battery metals right now, you’re probably not doing it right.”
“By battery metals, I mean the metals making the wheels of the electric vehicle (EV) revolution spin round and round. Lithium, sure. But also nickel, cobalt, manganese and copper. And graphite, too — even though it’s not a metal, it’s used in EV batteries.”
“In July, I wrote about how the EV revolution was accelerating demand for lithium. I added to my forecast earlier this month, explaining how the supply/demand squeeze was only going to get tighter.”
https://www.wealth-wave.com/wealth-wave/faster-lithium-faster/