Craig Hemke With A Fed Focus Moving Into Jackson Hole Tomorrow
Craig Hemke, Founder of TF Metals Report, joins us to discuss the implications of Fed policy and what he expects from both Jerome Powell’s speech tomorrow at Jackson Hole, as well as the parade of Fed governors hitting the main stream financial media tomorrow morning. Next we get into some of the price levels and moving averages that Craig wants to see gold reclaim on the charts, and what the bigger macro picture is for the precious metals.
Click here to visit Craig’s site – TF Metals Report
Really good reality talk. Thanks guys. Important stuff at an important time.
Much appreciated David.
Germany has been through bad events on a repetitive basis. Don’t rule them out on helping others with history and not repeating.
Feel free to apply that both economically and more importantly politically. Find out where you live before you want something you didn’t intend.
Good positive start to tomorrow. Means nothing until we can get through 2-3 EST (London), 9:00 EST, 9:30 EST and 10:00 EST windows or there abouts . Same -Same for years. Take an aspirin and call somebody in the morning. Dejavue for ever.
The people stealing the Future Treasury want to keep stealing it…think criminal.
China to Sell 150,000 Tons of Metals From Reserves on Sept. 1
Bloomberg News – Thu, August 26, 2021
“China said it would release its third batch of metals from state reserves on Sept. 1 as part of its ongoing campaign to control prices and prevent commodities inflation from hurting growth.”
“The National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration said Friday it will sell 70,000 tons of aluminum, 50,000 tons of zinc, and 30,000 tons of copper, quantities in line with the two earlier auctions that took place in July.”
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/china-sell-150-000-tons-054514319.html
What To Expect From Jay Powell: Morning Brief
Myles Udland·Anchor – Fri, August 27, 2021
“as has become tradition, on the morning of the symposium’s first day we will hear from the current chair of the Federal Reserve. At 10:00 a.m. ET today, Jerome Powell will give a speech on the broad topic of “The Economic Outlook.”
In a note to clients ahead of this event, Kathy Bostjancic at Oxford Economics said Powell will likely “provide further guidance on a gradual policy pivot towards less extreme monetary accommodation.” And in Oxford’s view, an announcement that the Fed will begin tapering its pace of asset purchases late this year or early next could come as soon as September.
“Investors’ focus on Fed policy is, in the end, driven by one simple idea. All else equal, if Fed policy is more accommodative — i.e. rates are lower or the Fed is buying assets — then conditions are primed for riskier assets to do better. When conditions are tighter, safer assets will perform better. These are both, of course, intentionally general descriptions.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/what-to-expect-from-jay-powell-morning-brief-090842655.html
Jackson Hole’s Greatest Hits Keep Focus on Fed’s Annual Retreat
By Rich Miller – August 27, 2021 – Bloomberg
“In his first three years atop the Federal Reserve, Chair Jerome Powell has followed in the path of his predecessors and used the central bank’s annual Jackson Hole symposium to make major pronouncements on monetary policy and the economy.”
“In 2018, he questioned the usefulness of such economic concepts as the natural rate of unemployment. In 2019, he foreshadowed a cut in interest rates. And in 2020, he rolled out a radical re-jigging of the Fed’s monetary policy framework, at a conference held virtually because of Covid-19.”
“So it’s no wonder that global investors are once again obsessing over what Powell will say when he speaks to the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s symposium Friday at 10 a.m. New York time.”
“Their focus: Any remarks he might make on the future of the Fed’s $120-billion-per-month bond purchase program. At their July 27-28 meeting, most policy makers judged that it probably would be appropriate to begin paring those purchases this year, according to the minutes of the gathering.”
Fed wants to say they will reduce bond purchases to undermine infrastructure bills. Fed wants debt to continue to be focused in Wall Street and continue transfer of wealth.
Big red candle against gold during first Fed Governor speaking on CNBS.
General markets rebound and Fed has done nothing but run their mouth.
We are getting a bump up in gold as Powell begins speech. Liesman doing a pregame summary and only clue for bump may be the admission of higher inflation.
Yes sir, a nice bump in Gold up to $1817 as the Fed announced it will not be starting it’s tapering right away, and is holding off until Nov/Dec at the earliest and maybe even next year. The can is kicked further down the road…
10 year yield down so far.
Miners act like it is Saturday night.
This is what glen is watching closely..If the Hui on the monthly can close this month 250/248/249 region. Then I would change tone completely in regards to the action in the miners and the current bear structure in them since last august. This would setup a possible undercut of the monthly on hui in September but only to close out green/positively. That scenario could finally put the low in these miners, forget the price of gold and setup at least a 12 month bull in the miners before taking a break.
Many miners now are at or close to there bottoms from longer term trends but that doesn’t mean from here to next month they can’t bleed a bit more. It’s been a long bear and time for purchasing is coming before our eyes.
I will be the first to tell you when I think the miners have bottoms imo.
Best of trading to all..
Thanks Glenfidish. Earlier this week both Dave Erfle and Jordan Roy-Byrne mentioned in their interviews that level of 250 on the HUI as a key level to watch as well, so we’ll need to keep tabs on the weekly and monthly charts to see how things go in the miners.
Glenfidish, I agree we’re carving out a bottom. The odds are fairly high probably at least 80%. The gold mining equities were down for weeks every day every day consecutively so it’s removed a lot of the froth from the market and sellers have been cleaned out.
I’m certain it’s going to be fairly bumpy but pricing is getting extremely attractive. That’s the time to buy or average in for those that are long-term holders I’m not day trading.
Hello Glen………. glad to see you back…..
Following last week’s reversal, this week’s pullback was a clear buying opportunity.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24HUI&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p46658682047&a=982826709
That is good. I bought AXU and ISVLF Monday on the pull back.
That was likely a solid plan Charles.
Taper refers to a post-crisis asset purchase plan, where the Fed, at a predetermined stated pace, starts to slowly and gradually decrease how many assets it’s buying (the process of purchasing securities for stimulative purposes is commonly called quantitative easing, or Q.E. for short).
The taper is them (the fed) taking non performing mortgage backed securities notes out of failing bond portfolios to keep the derivative bubble from popping. They ain’t buying squat!
They are putting debt on their books. That’s it. That’s all.
It’s not QE. It’s not anything that means anything economic.
Talking about a taper is a distraction for what is really going on. They are talking about a shiny ball that other numb brains can parrot. It’s a joke.
What really going on is: the fed is soaking up all the crap debt to default and implode when the SHTF. Which is probably a few weeks away.
Based on every chart that f every asset class, late September to early October looks conducive to the everything bubble.
Interesting commentary Chartster. I got my popcorn out. Of course, this can go on for a long time but we are nearing the end in the not too distant future of this historic monumental stratospheric speculative bubble. I’m fully convinced too, it’s going to be a biblical event of monumental proportions. Extreme agony and pain is coming to this society. And of course all these analysts are useless in a situation like this they’re going to be swept away with the financial tsunami. Including all the precious metal recommendations and blah blah blah.
HG,
I’ve known for over a year that the fed was neutered.
The treasury is the bank oversight now.
I never really thought that the fed would ever close its doors and fold. They are too important to the national payment systems. And then I just learned that the treasury has taken over the payment systems… That’s big news…!
If they move everything to the treasury, then the fed has no purpose.
In conclusion, the fed is being setup to close. And that should be in the not so distant future.
Fun times
Your first two lines/assertions are completely ridiculous on two fronts. First, they are not true and, second, they would change precisely nothing if they were.
Chartster, fun times. An inferno of flames is coming to the world’s financial system and included in that would be most likely a war on American soil. So, I’m going to further add to the analysis the big surprise and shocker is going to be war right here on American soil.
I guess we can call that the cherry on top 💣 how about a real black cherry they’re real tasty in season too.
Fed Chair Powell speaks on economy at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium —
8/27/21 – CNBC (Streamed live 33 minutes ago)
GDX: AB=CD up on 240 minute chart…..Nice unn!…point B has 7.3 million shares…if we close above B in the next few with 10% more share volume it is technically a confirmed ABC up!…glta…I added a pitchfork because Matthew has taught me a lot about his unique method…Chart reading observation…Note that the 161.82 ABC up expansion up is basically mid oscillation of that higher range..
If EX has prepared a brief regarding why the FED speak seemed to be ok w the technicals…Maybe we could hear that?…larry…I have no clue what the fed speak did for the gold miners…lmao
Hi Larry. Haha! No brief from me today, as I’ll leave that up to our guests to comment on, but it seems clear that the Fed pushing the taper back to Nov/Dec (instead of starting on it immediately like many Fed governors wanted to do) is a sign that Powell is acknowledging it is best to wait and that the markets aren’t as rosy as the main stream media would lead folks to believe. This helped underpin a bid for the Gold price and set it ratcheting higher today to end the week. Craig mentioned this was a distinct possibility in the editorial above.
OTAY EX…That is all it takes…Thank-you…I supposed that partially but I really am never certain as I listen to all the deceit and treachery…Causing hypertrophic arterial expansions….🔊💩
Haha! Yeah, there is a lot of that out there for sure… 🙂
Speaking of technicals… I’d anticipate Gold is about to but in a very nice bullish candle for the week here on Friday (currently Gold is around $1817). We are going to close for the 3rd week in a row above the key support (that was just resistance) at $1750-$1760, so that is rather bullish.
For those technicians that were calling for gold to continue to be bearing and keep trending lower in the low $1600’s and higher $1500’s, their hopes have been dashed in the short-term. As pointed out a few days ago, the low for the year in Gold was still 5 months ago in March at $1673, and even the recent retest of the March double bottom, where that level was tested for a 3rd time down to $1677 held, and was, in fact, another “higher low” in a string of consistent higher lows, which is also bullish. Overall, a nice way to close up the week for Gold…. The Pet Rock.
normally i would not counter-comment EX…but you mentioned 1817….that is the TAS profile upper resistance line…I pay a hundred a month for that app…lmao…so a close over 1817.3 is real good, making the next target 1836.7 the weekly TAS top….they change as market actions change
Yeah, Gold may be testing resistance here at $1817, but my point was simply it appears we are going get a nice green candle in gold for the day and the week, and we are nowhere close to testing the $1673 low from March, as many figured we’d be just a few weeks back after that flash crash.
I agree with you that a close over that $1830-$1840 resistance would be more bullish and more of a confirmation, but still it’s a nice way to close up the week where things are in the yellow metal.
Gold closed the week at $1819.50, above that $1817.30 resistance you mentioned, so that is another bullish factor. Cheers!
The bullish writing on the wall has been clear all along and especially since the SILJ:GDX weekly golden cross two months ago. The weakness since then should have been seen as a gift, not cause for anticipating a bear market or weakness through the end of the year. Lo and behold, all of the lower lows of late have come with significant bullish divergences and the reason is smart money buying while dumb money sells and/or looks for continued weakness into the end of the year.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ%3AGDX&p=W&yr=3&mn=11&dy=0&id=p57471350125&a=1001430508
I haven’t owned AXU in a long time but it rates a strong buy in my opinion.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AXU&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p53803988842&a=521441859
Disclosure: My son does own it.
I agree with Matthew, and I’m with your son on this one, and have been adding to my AXU position again recently at these levels. They got punished a bit for being behind schedule ramping up into commercial production, but they’re getting there, should be rolling along by Q4 of this year and Q1 of next year. If Silver prices stay where they are then they should be sitting pretty, and if we see silver prices move up to the higher $20’s or break through that $29 resistance and blast into the $30’s then I’d anticipate Alexco being a nice multibagger from here.
These were some very nice bonanza grade Silver intercepts from Vizsla yesterday:
(VZLA) (VIZSF) Vizsla Drills 20,413 G/t AgEq Over 0.7 M Within 1,564 G/t AgEq Over 11.4 M in New Zones at Napoleon
by @newswire on 26 Aug 2021
https://ceo.ca/@newswire/vizsla-drills-20413-gt-ageq-over-07-m-within-1564
SLV filled most of Monday’s gap today and the low one week ago filled most of that huge December gap. It is now good to go and today’s volume has already exceeded the volume of the last 13 days with most of the day still ahead.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p25648325313&a=870048854
SILJ is already taking back the important fork support that it plunged below last week:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ&p=W&yr=3&mn=11&dy=0&id=p81217197391&a=822791467
Nice chart.
TLT is broken versus GLD and the last 8% of its rise vs GLD came with big bearish warnings.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TLT%3AGLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p20132909386&a=995067966
This weekly price channel caught the low for SLV perfectly:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=W&yr=6&mn=6&dy=0&id=p02165132334&a=1012239554
CDE has been a strong buy all week yet not a word from those who’ve been looking for lower prices.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CDE&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=22&id=p64767166800
Of course, SILJ looks fantastic and filled none of last Friday’s gap.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=22&id=p87962847484
I won’t be surprised if GLD strengthens further into today’s close.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p93781292657&a=1016646559
GLD is a strong sell versus silver now that it has filled today’s big gap down.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD%3ASLV&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&id=p47973265292&a=617876946
Thanks Matthew. Sounds like all your past recent work is being confirmed.
Thanks, David. The TIPS bond ETF is in sync with the bullish outlook for gold (and especially silver)…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TIP&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p85518607463&a=910748591
That sell off in the gold mining equities didn’t pass the smell test because it just kept going down day after day and they’re recovering nicely right now. That’s the problem when you trade if your timing is off you get whipsawed and then you add up a lot of losses in such a flawed trading strategy you may as well save your time and your bank account or brokerage account from going to zero leave your money in the bank and forget it. It’s called self-inflicted torture and grief. I think the gold equities are going to become very very volatile and I said long time ago that nobody’s going to make money in this market they’re going to be whipsawed left and right even in a big gold bull market losing money trading the ups and downs.
Gold goes to 5,000 and all these flawed trading strategies and they lose their money even in a big gold bull market. Keep your fingers off the keyboard if you want to make money. Better yet toss it out.
NULGF smack down today
Craig mentioned that the Germans were loading the boat on gold in the interview above, and this article from Bloomberg gets into that as well.
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Inflation-wary Germans Are Loading Up On Gold
Bloomberg News | August 26, 2021
“Demand for physical bullion in Germany, traditionally the biggest coin and bar buyer in Europe, was the highest since at least 2009 in the first half, World Gold Council data show. While purchases in other Western markets have also been strong, Germans in particular are pouring into the metal as a hedge against rising inflation — and dealers say business remains good.”
“We have a long history of inflation fear in our DNA. Now the inflation risk is picking up,” said Raphael Scherer, a managing director at metals dealer Philoro Edelmetalle GmbH, whose gold sales are up 25% on what was already a strong 2020. “The outlook for precious metals is very positive.”
https://www.mining.com/web/inflation-wary-germans-are-loading-up-on-gold/