Dave Erfle – Will Precious Metals Break Up Through Resistance?

David Erfle, Founder and Editor of Junior Mining Junky, joins us to review the levels he’s watching in gold, the GDX, and the GDXJ as the precious metals have rallied up to overhead resistance levels.  We discuss what technical and fundamental drivers may be catalysts, if the precious metals markets are going to break to the upside.  Next we transition over to the series of mergers and acquisition deals that we’ve seen recently, with the Pretium takeover by Newcrest being the latest; and if this may bring some interest from generalist investors back into the PM sector. Dave wraps up with discussing what moves he’s making in his resource stock portfolio.

Click here to learn more about Dave’s newsletter – The Junior Miner Junky.

    Nov 09, 2021 09:55 PM

    (NCM) Newcrest to Acquire (PVG) Pretivm for C$18.50 in Cash and Shares

    – 8 Nov 2021

    – Premium of 23%to the closing price and 29%to the 20-day volume-weighted-average price, respectively, on November 8, 2021 for Pretivm shareholders
    – Option to select cash or Newcrest shares, subject to proration
    – Opportunity to retain exposure to Brucejack, while gaining exposure to Newcrest’s diversified portfolio of high-quality, long life, tier one assets
    – Newcrest is a respected partner of the First Nations in northwest British Columbia
    – Newcrest intends to pursue growth with continued investment in Brucejack

    Nov 09, 2021 09:01 PM

    Another company that made some acquisitions fairly recently has been (IAU) when they picked up the Ruby Hill Mine and did the asset swap for the Lone Tree Complex. As Joe Mazumdar mentioned on Friday’s editorial, many companies are choosing to bulk up larger through mergers or acquisitions of projects to gain both size and scale.


    (IAU) (IAUCF) i-80 Gold Reports 2021 Q3 Results

    – 9 Nov 2021

    2021 Third Quarter Highlights

    – Announced Acquisition of the Ruby Hill Mine and the asset swap for the Lone Tree Complex
    – Gold production of 3,254 ounces, year-to-date production of 14,330 ounces
    – Gold sales of 4,575 ounces, year-to-date sales of 17,848 ounces
    – Total revenue of $8.2 million, $32.0 million year-to-date
    – Mine operating income of $3.3 million for the quarter, and $13.1 million year-to-date

    Nov 09, 2021 09:03 PM

    As discussed on one of the other blogs earlier today, this news out of Silver Tiger was stunning, with some eye-popping bonanza silver grades in their recent drill results. SLVR was up 25% on the news today.
    Silver Tiger intersects 82,827 g/t AgEq over 0.5 meters within a broader interval of 17.5 meters grading 2,608.4 g/t AgEq in the initial drilling on the Seitz Kelly Vein

    – Nov 09, 2021

    Nov 09, 2021 09:09 PM

    Good segment today from Dave Erfle on where we are in this recent rally, up near overhead resistance in Gold, GDX, and GDXJ.

    It’s nice to see a little life coming back into the PM sector again, especially when we were having so many bears piling up on this blog the last few months, stating in September things were doomed, and that the rally the first week or two in October was just a pop before the drop lower to test that $1675 support again and break on down to the low $1600s. Then there were other comments from a few people that gold wouldn’t be able to get back over $1800, and that negative nancies narrative has been decisively put to bed now with Gold at $1834.
    The miners have been leading the charge higher for all of October and so far into November. That’s what we want to see more of, and then if Silver would get moving higher again, it would confirm that inverse head & shoulders pattern that Steve Penny pointed out last Friday.

    It will be interesting to see where the Consumer Price Index readings come in tomorrow, and if this shows inflation is sticking around and not so “transitory”. That could be another iron on the fire to drive the PMs higher as Dave outlined in the interview above.

      Nov 10, 2021 10:28 AM

      Well, it looks like Gold had now broken above that $1840 resistance here this morning, as the CPI numbers have landed hot today at 6.2% inflation. Gold currently at $1858. Boom!!

    Nov 09, 2021 09:14 PM

    They might as well give us a reasonable representation of the CPI as they really have trouble faking it to the consumers. We know The Fed can’t raise rates anyway.

    Great interview with David again. He makes everything easy to understand. You guys work well together as with many others on the show. Keep up the good work as it is appreciated.

      Nov 09, 2021 09:21 PM

      Thanks Lakedweller2. Agreed that David Erfle is a solid guy, and both Cory & I do appreciate getting his thoughts on the PM sector and we do have good chemistry with him (and usually a few laughs before we start recording).

      As for the CPI reading tomorrow, it may come in close to 6% according to some market pundits, but we’ll see how it goes. Right now the Fed has just started to back off of how much they are buying each month, but their balance sheet is swollen and bloated with debt, so when they do finally get done tapering the bond buying and start looking at the potential of hiking rates, there is no way mathematically they can “normalize” rates to where inflation is at 6% or 5% or even 4% or 3% without the debt on their balance sheet being unpayable. The interest on that debt at those levels would be soul-crushing, and would be a monkey wrench into the gears of the economy and markets, so that is unlikely to happen.

    Nov 09, 2021 09:27 PM

    It’s Time For Gold Miners & Other Value Stocks

    Hosted by Jay Taylor – November 9, 2021

    “Lyn Alden, Dr. Quinton Hennigh and Michael Oliver return. Gold and Silver miners are the only non-financial sector in the S&P 500 that has been generating real positive free cash flows. Yet the value orientated gold shares are not performing anything like growth stock sectors, including IT. Lyn believes the tables may now be turning in favor of value stocks over growth stocks, in which case gold and silver miners should be nearing the time for their next major breakout. Lyn will explain the drivers for value stocks as well as those for growth stocks. It will also be interesting to get her latest views on Bitcoin and crypto currency in general, and how she views those “growth” stocks relative to precious metals and energy stocks in general. The major gold and silver miners that are producing strong profits are however running out of ore so they will need to find new large scale deposits. One company that is showing early signs of a major gold and silver discovery is Eskay Mining. Dr. Hennigh will provide an update on that company’s exploration progress, hopefully with some of the latest drill results. Michael will provide his usual insights into stock and bonds markets with a focus on the precious metals markets.”

      Nov 10, 2021 10:19 AM

      That was a nice lineup with Lyn Alden, Quinton Hennigh, and Michael Oliver. All very sharp folks!!

    Nov 10, 2021 10:57 AM

    Pot investors, according to The Financial Post empty stores in Toronto are being filled by pot shops. Prices are falling as competition heats up. On my daily walks I see new ones popping up everywhere, this will be a damper on prices. So many businesses have closed that selling pot is one of the only games in town. They are the new tattoo parlors.

    Condos are still going up at a record pace , tradesmen are still in demand, they are usually the last workers to go after there is a crash, and the last to be rehired when the economy improves. It’s a Mad, Mad, World.

      Nov 10, 2021 10:34 AM

      Looks like I may need to reup my (POTX) Global X Cannabis ETF position then.

    Nov 10, 2021 10:57 AM

    SPQ(PMs) :
    Swing turn soon, or breakout?

    Nov 10, 2021 10:12 AM

    Wow! Matthew the lord heard your call lol..

    Can I get a hoot hoot 🥳🥳🤠💪💪💪

    Gold moving finally.. capture that liquidity

    Short squeez big time

    Nov 10, 2021 10:15 AM

    Jerry $1900 year end piece of cake?

    Cad attacking .83 in short order first stop

      Nov 10, 2021 10:45 AM

      You da Man…….. GLEN………….. think who called it first……. out on the limb Jerry….OOTL… lol…. 🙂

        Nov 10, 2021 10:55 AM

        Tomorrow…….. worries me……. the smashers always come out….. after a good day….
        Chainsaws scare me,………….especially, when you are OOTL….. 🙂

          Nov 10, 2021 10:15 AM

          Inflation……… is just now being recognized…. in your face…. but, it has been around a long time,
          as some have mentioned here………… some just slow to catch on…..
          printing…… $21 TRILLION in the last few years… is finally being noticed….
          Let along the $140 TRILLION the Pentagon is missing…. lol

            Nov 10, 2021 10:23 AM

            Agreed OOTB. People like John Williams over at Shadow Stats has been pointing out for years that real inflation was much higher than what is showing up in government statistics. However, now with the “official” government CPI readings coming in hotter and hotter from 4% to 5% to now over 6% from October, then they can’t disguise the inflation any more. The inflation genie is out of the bottle…. 🙂

            As you mentioned even some of the regular folks that are a bit slow to get it are now paying attention, as is hard to ignore out in people’s daily lives. If people go shopping at a grocery store, or pay for gas, or pay for services, or try to buy a home, or car, or travel, or rent a car, or go to the movies, etc…. then they are seeing inflation first hand, and don’t need some silly government reading to tell them there is inflation, and that it has definitely not been “transitory.”

            Nov 10, 2021 10:43 AM

            Ditto…………. just looking at the car prices over the last 10 yrs…. should give a hint….
            of course ding dongs, .. renting a car for 3 yrs. and turning it in… do not notice the price
            increase as much., paying cash is another story… lol…… but, when they look at the increase in sticker price for the next line of junk to
            hit the streets.. … lol… quality leather et is expensive… lol… , … the bell should go off…. ding ding…

    Nov 10, 2021 10:24 AM

    How Gold’s Momentum Structure Adds A Degree Of Technical Clarity
    Jesse Felder – The Felder Report – November 10, 2021

    Nov 10, 2021 10:36 AM

    Consumer prices soar again and push rate of inflation to 31-year high, CPI shows 6.2%
    Jeffry Bartash – Market Watch (11/10/2021)
    “The cost of living rose sharply again in October as Americans paid more for staples such as gas and groceries, pushing the rate of inflation to a nearly 31-year high and adding financial pressure on U.S. households.”

    “The pace of inflation over the past year marched to 6.2% in October from 5.4% in the prior month.”

    “That’s more than double the Federal Reserve’s 2% target and is the highest rate since November 1990.”


      Nov 10, 2021 10:42 AM

      6.2% Inflation. Sorry Jerome Powell and Fed Goons….. There has been nothing “transitory” about inflation since they claimed it would just be a month or two of “base effects” or “supply chain” hiccups back in Feb & March for April/May. Nope.

      Negative real rates just got more negative. The US 10 year is at 1.47% this morning with the CPI is at 6.2% for October. That gives us a “Real Rate” of negative – 4.73%. Why in the hell would anyone want to buy a bond that guarantees you’ll lose nearly 5% a year for 10 years? LOL!

      Well, at least the Fed is going to be scaling back their purchase of bonds right into rising inflation that makes them look less desirable. What could possibly go wrong? 😉

      As a result, Gold has breached that $1840 resistance this morning currently up to $1868! KaBoom!!

        Nov 10, 2021 10:58 AM

        GOOD SURPRISE……………. I would say….. 🙂

          Nov 10, 2021 10:26 AM

          Well, not too big of surprise, as many were expecting a CPI reading of 6%, as mentioned yesterday before this reading even came out this morning.

          Also, while it is good for Gold & Silver, it is really bad for everyday people (including all of us) because it means inflation is eroding our purchasing power, and prices are continuing to go up. Inflation is a pernicious and secret tax on everything, from the fiscal malfeasance and terrible monetary and fiscal policies from the central banksters and spend crazy government bureaucrats.

      Nov 10, 2021 10:48 AM

      Inflation jumped 6.2% in October, biggest monthly rise in 30 years

      by Aimee Picchi – November 10, 2021

      “Inflation accelerated in October, with Americans facing sharply higher consumer prices as they head into the crucial holiday shopping season. That represents the steepest monthly rise in about 30 years.”

      “Consumer prices increased 6.2% from the year-ago period, slightly faster than their 5.4% increase the previous month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Wednesday. Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy costs, grew 4.6% for the month.”

    Nov 10, 2021 10:47 AM

    It looks to be a nice Green Day in the PM markets today, and it’s great that Gold “came around” to a bullish break out.

    Nov 10, 2021 10:48 AM

    Stupid is as stupid does….
    Fantastic premarket #s in the fraudulent paper derivative metals markets…
    But they run the same algos on the miners. I will be glad when the sociopaths are given social skills lessons in prison.

      Nov 10, 2021 10:53 AM

      Don’t get too discouraged Lakedweller2, as the miners are actually up nicely today.

      GDX, GDXJ, SIL, and SILJ are all up about 2.5%-3% this morning, and many juniors are up much more than that. Enjoy the green day in the markets my friend!

    Nov 10, 2021 10:33 AM

    I guess I own the wrong ones as it is another day of 60% down and 40% up with the overall account at a negative 3%. Just the same pattern as usual. But, …if the price of Gold and Silver close at these levels Friday…then the interveners will have a dilemma on their hands. Continue stealing or back off…

      Nov 10, 2021 10:52 AM

      Hmmm. Well, the vast majority of Gold & Silver miners are in the green today, so the trend is generally up and bullish on this Wednesday in the PMs and PM stocks. My portfolio is up over 3% on the day, so no complaints here. Overall it should be a pretty good day for investors in the PM stocks.

      The Gold prices are fading some down to the mid $1850’s now, but still up on the day.

        Nov 10, 2021 10:01 AM

        I am ok with it as I believe we are having a breakout moment in general. After a year of the same pattern, reducing my portfolio size and moving things around hasn’t broken the pattern…except for EMO which has made all else insignificant. I will be fine in the short term, it is just frustrating to see a repetitive pattern in a market. It is like looking at the 45 degree angle of the DOW for 10 or 12 years. Buy the dip is not supposed to be a ten year investment theory.
        Anyway, I am fine and know we are on the way up…just hate the brazen intervention in markets.

          Nov 10, 2021 10:10 AM

          Good thoughts Lakedweller2 and yes we all “hate the brazen intervention in markets.”

          More generalists and people not even interesting in the financial markets are starting to wake up that the central bank monetary policies and excessive government spending and terrible fiscal policies are causing real world hurt for average people and have lead to market dislocations in many sectors (with some at nosebleed levels for no good reason) and others (like the commodity sector and monetary metals that are still severely undervalued…. all things considered).

          Also, the last 2 years where cities were allowed to openly be burned down by a vocal minority of protestors and a 2 years of government mandated lockdowns hasn’t really done much to help the financial situation of most average citizens or small business owners. The chickens are starting to come home to roost now, as the slowdown in growth is being pared with rising inflation, and a Fed that can’t really hike rates much to fight the inflation. They clamored on about wanting 2% inflation and wanting it to run hot…. Well, those ding-dongs got 6% inflation now, without a plan for addressing it. What could possibly go wrong? haha!

          As more people wake up and realize the emperor is wearing no clothes, more people will at least place some capital in the safe havens of gold & silver.

            Nov 10, 2021 10:30 AM

            Great input Ex. I would be buying with all my cash right now but I only have $87. I am already in.

            Nov 10, 2021 10:34 AM

            +87 I’m pretty much all in as well and have been since repurchasing my July/August tax loss sales in late August and September. That was a good place to have loaded back up, as we’ve had a nice rally thus far for all of October and November.

            Ever Upward!

    Nov 10, 2021 10:37 AM

    Paul Robinson on Gold, Silver, Copper, and Oil (5:51):

    Nov 10, 2021 10:02 AM

    Gold’s Run Shows Interest Rate Hikes Not Coming Soon
    Ahead Of The Herd – November 10, 2021
    “Fed officials have said rate hikes won’t be on the table until the bond-buying program ends, likely next June. But investors are projecting more than two quarter-point increases by early 2023, Bloomberg wrote on Nov. 2.”

    “How realistic is that? And why are these investors swallowing the Fed’s propaganda regarding rate hikes?”

    “The US Federal Reserve is severely constrained in how much it can raise interest rates, to quell rising inflation, due to ballooning debt. The national debt is closing in on $29 trillion, and heading higher, much higher. The Fed can telegraph its intentions all it wants, the fact remains that at such unsustainably high debt levels, the interest payments will eventually cripple the federal government.”

    “For now we need to talk about inflation. Inflation is a gold investor’s best friend and a traditional investor’s worst enemy. This is because when inflation rises, it chips away at real savings and investment returns. If your yield on a bond is 1.5%, and inflation is running at 2%, your “real return” is negative 0.5%!”

    “Gold and silver are the best defensive commodities to own when goods and services start to become more dear. The yellow metal is the ultimate store of value, proven to have held its worth over time, unlike fiat currencies which are subject to inflationary pressures and over the years, lose their value.”

    Nov 10, 2021 10:16 AM

    Bob Moriarty: Natural Resources Are The Antithesis Of The Nasdaq Stock Bubble
    CeoTechnician (aka Goldfinger) – Nov 10, 2021

    Nov 10, 2021 10:26 AM

    So here’s yet another big acquisition in the mining sector…. in a string of recent acquisitions in the space…..
    (UEC) UEC Acquires Rosatom’s Uranium One assets, Creating Largest Uranium Miner In US – November 9, 2021

      Nov 10, 2021 10:52 AM

      I remember selling my Uranium One many years ago when Rosatom acquired it. Now maybe I can buy it back as part of UEC.

        Nov 10, 2021 10:29 AM

        Me too. I was thinking the same thing, but have maintained a solid position in UEC for year now, so this acquisition just compliments their existing assets (in a pretty substantial way).

        Actually Anfield Energy (AEC) had also picked up some old US based Uranium One assets, but they’ve not executed well, and I rotated out of them early last year, in favor of beefing up better Uranium companies.

      Nov 10, 2021 10:20 AM

      Is Frank G…. selling his yellow cake…. maybe Hilly needs some cash… lol

        Nov 10, 2021 10:29 AM


          Nov 10, 2021 10:32 PM

          I couldn’t resist…. 🙂

    Nov 10, 2021 10:40 AM

    Monty Bissett – If you see this post, the Wallbridge maiden resource estimate is out today, and it’s almost precisely in alignment with where I projected it would likely be.

    When you asked me for my thoughts last week I figured it would come out between 2-3 million ounces and between 1-2 g/t, with my guesstimate being 2.75 million ounces at 1.8 g/t. Well, that wasn’t far off at all. If you recall, I also mentioned, while I think that would be a very respectable maiden resource in 3 years, I felt the market had MUCH higher expectations of 5-10 million ounces and that those would likely be dashed, and there would be a tantrum. Today we are seeing that with a 19% selloff on a good day in the PMs.

    (WM) Wallbridge Announces Mineral Resource Estimate for Fenelon and Martiniere Deposits on Detour-Fenelon Gold Trend

    – 9 Nov 2021
    “Total combined Indicated Resource of 2.67 million ounces: 43.56 Mt grading 1.91 g/t Au.”

      Nov 10, 2021 10:47 AM

      I added more (WM) shares to my stash this morning into this sell down, as I was hoping there would be a market tantrum from overzealous retail mobs that had the complete wrong expectations on Fenelon. I mentioned last week that many would throw in the towel at precisely the wrong time, when the company actually just showed they have almost 3 million ounces of economic gold at more than twice the grade of the Detour Lake Mine next to them that Kirkland has been operating after taking over Detour Gold.
      So while it’s actually a good news update (just ask any gold explorer or developer if they think building a 2.7 million ounce gold resource in 3 years is impressive); but it is being taken as a negative report by nonsensical retail traders that had expectations in the stratosphere for where it would come in.

      I love valuation mismatches like these for accumulation. Zig, when everyone else is zagging….

    Nov 10, 2021 10:22 AM

    The “market” is into the 3rd day of a Blitzkreig (sp?) on Emerita. Those that feel they missed something, may want to place a few shekels in the pot in this vicinity….maybe

      Nov 10, 2021 10:09 AM

      75% of my miners now negative. I think I must have mentioned to somebody out there that I really wasn’t interested in buying their Bitcoin as I didn’t have room in my garage to keep them. Then my miners drop on a good “paper price” day. Just random in a country with weak fiat.

        Nov 10, 2021 10:09 PM

        GDX and GDXJ gapped up 2.5% while SILJ gapped up 3%. Between those huge gaps and the metals pulling back sharply, it’s no wonder the miners have come down. I can honestly say that I’m glad it’s gone this way because the market hates having huge gaps below especially when they don’t originate at a major low. Getting them filled or partially filled will allow our miners to move with the leverage to the metals that we expect.
        The sector has used the 6 years since gold bottomed to straighten itself out technically and fundamentally and is now ready for the main act, the one we’ve all been waiting for. The picture is very good though our resident bears can’t see it nor do they understand.

          Nov 10, 2021 10:16 PM

          Thanks Matthew. I was looking at it as a temporary issue and that puts an explanation on it.