John Rubino Discusses Fed Policy, Inflation, The US Dollar, Gold, And The Mining Stocks
John Rubino, Founder of the Dollar Collapse website, joins us to comment on the recent news from the Fed and potential policy choices they will face, as well as look at currencies, gold, and the mining stocks. John outlines why it doesn’t really matter who’s at the head of the Fed, when the upcoming rate hiking cycle will be just as much of a tight rope to walk between fighting inflation while not negatively impacting the general US equities markets. Next we discuss the strange environment of the rising US dollar in the midst of high inflation readings, but mostly due to euro weakness on the geopolitical and economic concerns out of Europe. We wrap up with getting John’s medium to longer term outlook on the precious metals sector, the leverage that mining stocks offer, and why he has been encouraged by the recent M&A activity.
S&P 500 Closes Down as Powell Nod Triggers Yield Surge, Dents Tech
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Stock Markets – Nov 22, 2021
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“The S&P 500 give up gains to close lower Monday, led by selloff in tech as investors maintained bets on earlier rate hikes following news that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell would be nominated for another term.’
“The S&P 500 fell 0.32%, and had earlier hit an intraday record of 4,743.74, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.1%, or 17 points, the Nasdaq fell 1.26%.”
“Treasury yields jumped on the news, suggesting that some had been betting on Brainard, who leans more dovish, which would likely have led to a lower for longer approach on monetary policy. The United States 10-Year surged above 1.6%, helping to stoke a bid on banking stocks.”
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Fed’s Bostic: Powell, Brainard Appointments Remove Uncertainty For Fed
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Reuters – Nov 22, 2021 8
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Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic said on Monday “President Joe Biden’s decision to nominate Jerome Powell for a second term as Fed chair removes uncertainty for policymakers and is a “helpful” development as they approach some critical decisions.”
“This decision really does take some uncertainty out of the Federal Reserve as an issue, and I think that’s helpful for all of us,” Bostic said in an interview on Bloomberg Television.
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https://www.investing.com/news/economy/feds-bostic-powell-brainard-appointments-remove-uncertainty-for-fed-2687517
Gold Sells Off Sharply As Biden Renominates Powell For Fed Chair
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Jim Wyckoff – November 22, 2021
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“Gold prices are under strong selling pressure and hit a two-week low in early U.S. dealings Monday. The yellow metal slumped as the U.S. dollar index rallied to a 15-month high when President Biden announced he has chosen current Fed Chair Jerome Powell to continue in his position for another term. Speculation had been that Biden might chose the more monetary-policy-dovish Lael Brainard as Fed chair. With Powell remaining as chairman of the Federal Reserve, traders and investors reckon U.S. monetary policy will remain on its present course, compared to notions that Brainard as a new Fed chair would have leaned easier on U.S. money policies. Sell stop orders were triggered in gold futures when prices dropped below several key near-term technical support levels, which drove prices still lower. ”
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https://www.kitco.com/news/2021-11-22/Gold-sells-off-sharply-as-Biden-renominates-Powell-for-Fed-chair.html
My guess The Fed threaten to crash the manipulated general markets if Powell not retained. To show their good faith, they hit the metals to support their point.
Dismissing Gold In The Past Led To Some Hard Lessons
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Frank Holmes – November 15, 2021
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“Back in December 1997, the Financial Times ran a now-infamous article titled “Death of Gold.”
“In it, the author Kenneth Gooding claimed that as an investment, “gold is a goner.” The crises of the past 10 years—the 1987 stock market crash, the Gulf War, Asia’s financial meltdown—had not resulted in higher demand, as one might expect. Gold was now a “mere metal” and a “bad investment,” Gooding concluded.
“But as it happened, reports of gold’s death were greatly exaggerated. The next decade saw the precious metal steadily rise in price, eventually hitting a then-record $1,921 an ounce in August 2011, for an increase of approximately 580% from when the Times published its obituary.”
“Fast forward to today, and the same gloomy prognoses are being made about the “barbarous relic,” often by people who least understand it. And just as Gooding was proven wrong, today’s doomsayers will end up with egg on their face, I believe.”
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https://www.usfunds.com/resource/dismissing-gold-in-the-past-led-to-some-hard-lessons/
Sprott Money Ask The Expert, November 2021 – John Rubino
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Nov 18, 2021 – Sprott Money w/ Craig Hemke
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“John Rubino publishes DollarCollapse.com. In this podcast, he answers your questions regarding Fed policy, inflation, the dollar and the economy.”
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Topics
0:00 – Introduction
2:34 – Next head of the Fed?
6:10 – Dollar collapse for average person
10:03 – Best assets for the next Black Swan
14:32 – Thoughts on dollar collapse being inevitable
17:09 – Global fiat currency collapse
20:09 – End of the American Empire
22:04 – Arrival of dollar collapse and “Big Reset”
24:20 – Outro
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https://youtu.be/XBl7MWDa-fc
GOTS to have some of that gold in your portfolio…… lol…..
After the central banks buy it all…..(stockmarket)…..
they will be greedy enough to pay any price for gold filled teeth…. 🙂
Today just another lip biting experience for the metals….
What will we be saying this time next year….. humm…..
Powell still in office , and Biden-HisTime , what could possibly go wrong… 🙂
Silver, SILJ and a lot of other gold and silver miners went up vs gold today and that is consistent with the action being “all bark and no bite.”
AU went up 2% vs gold.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AU&p=W&yr=5&mn=5&dy=0&id=p86589677142&a=978937985
GDX tested and held above three relevant fork supports today and the bearish implications of that “curly” and ugly daily MACD sell signal “should” be significantly mitigated by the bullish developments on the weekly and even quarterly charts.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p51003967057&a=1056562186
Ira Epstein’s Metals #Video (11/22/2021)
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#TechnicalAnalysis, Gold, Silver, Copper, Platinum
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https://youtu.be/i2Nttfb7r_w
Happy Holidays to all the Fib fans out there!
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Fibonacci Day – November 23, 2021
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“Also known as Leonardo of Pisa and Leonardo Fibonacci, Leonardo Bonacci invented a pattern of counting that continues to influence math and technology today. The pattern is made up of numbers that sum the previous two numbers before them — 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13 — and so on. The sequence is used in computing, stock trading, and architecture and design.”
“Once we discovered the sequence, it started showing up everywhere. Nature is full of Fibonacci patterns, from DNA to hurricanes, leading some to dub the Fibonacci sequence “nature’s secret code.”
“The Golden Ratio, a proportion associated with the Fibonacci sequence and also frequently found in nature, is roughly 1 to 1.6. This ratio shows up in the branching patterns of trees, the distribution of seeds in berries, the spiral arms of galaxies, and many more natural and human-engineered things.”
“Fibonacci Day celebrates this important mathematician and gives us an opportunity to marvel at the way math pervades everything around us. The Fibonacci sequence can be used to calculate the proportions of countless things on Earth and beyond, such as animals, plants, weather patterns, and even galaxies. Pause to observe your surroundings and you’ll start to notice the familiar spiral all around you.”
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John Quakes @quakes99 3:27 PM · Nov 22, 2021 · Twitter
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“Yee-Haw! @Sprott has just file an amended Base Shelf Prospectus for its Physical #Uranium Trust raising financing limit from US$1.3B to US$3.5 Billion in Trust Units. Having issued ~$1B worth of units via its ATM so far #SPUT now has $2.5B more for U3O8 stacking.”
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https://twitter.com/quakes99/status/1462925822625411074
That’s a big increase ($2.5 Billion) in the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust #SPUT units being made available to buy more U308 fuel out of the spot markets. Good luck to the utility companies trying to get any from the spot markets. 😉
I nibbled at a few gold & silver stocks into Monday’s weakness, and also did a tiny bit of adding to my uranium stocks, today, taking them up to 75% positions. However in both the PMs and U stocks, I’d like to see -10%-15%+ more corrective moves down in the mining stocks to start adding more. We may see one final round of tax loss selling here as weak hands capitulate, so if there are any exaggerated moves on low volumes where a stock really tanks, then I’ll jump on those kinds of trade setups.
Gold and Silver remain under pressure this morning with gold back down below $1800, and gold futures currently trading at $1787, and silver futures trading at $23.51.
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https://www.investing.com/commodities/real-time-futures
If we see the PM miners really fall out of bed here today, then I’ll likely add to some of my favorite positions into the weakness.
The numbers this Tuesday morning are disheartening for sure but let’s see what next week brings. I sense there is yet another beating to come for metals and mine investors.
One a different note – I just voted against the Agnico Eagle – Kirkland Lakes merger (I hold Kirkland Lake). I know it’s gonna happen anyway but thought I should express my discontent. I urge other Kirkland Lake owners to do the same.
By the way, isn’t it interesting that we still haven’t seen the date for the Corvus – AngloGold merger yet? I just sold off the last of my KOR shares and converted them to Santacruz Silver (SZSMF) so I’m no longer a player. Time will tell if 11+ SZSMF shares are worth more than 1 KOR share.
GDX day-bottom appears near…My call is 31.88 area of TD9 support…imho….unless this rising trend line holds…but the candle is very bearish strong for now…seeing a small RSI divergence w price on 10 minute gdx…not actionable yet…note that a .786 fibs retracement level is also 31.84…these sort of symmetries are not to be discounted…the allgos love fibs levels to stab at buying…lmao
Target GLD 166 : https://postimg.cc/WtPzg4QQ
Note declining comparison separation.
This also closes the final gap.
SPQ(PMs): https://tinyurl.com/2vc9pznu
Powerful Saturation. Turn soon?
/GC day…volume….we have much heading into 11/4 bar……in my world ensures a test of TD9 1769.30 breakout level…support? we will see
https://tos.mx/99VZDbJ
Hats off Doc. And to think some tried to kill the messenger. LOL
Never expected this second day dumper without at least a whimper up.
And what would that message be? To hibernate when we should be buying or are you referring to considering shorting gold after a huge breakout? Even worse, perhaps you’re implying that it’s a good idea to time one’s gold shorting based on changes to the COT which can deteriorate for weeks or even months without delivering what you expect. Such messages should be killed repeatedly and the last one gets an extra demerit for its lack of specifics.
If Doc had foreseen this action, he would have gone through with his short and gotten lucky. Yes, lucky. Thinly traded, abbreviated holiday weeks can easily go either way. With many professionals away from the market, gold could have jumped $50 or more to 1900+ and THEN come down. He didn’t know it was going to get hit so hard just like he didn’t know he was marking the low with his extra confidence that the sector was going to go nowhere this quarter.
I bought more IPT today. All the numbers on their Q3 going in a positive direction and they are finding more resources.
I believe you’re smart to do so. The company is in great shape and has plenty of cash for a lot of drilling.
I see no reason for concern on the weekly chart…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IPT.V&p=W&yr=6&mn=6&dy=0&id=p99888429728&a=630844502
The daily also looks fine but needs to turn the oscillators bullish again…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IPT.V&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p23351975907&a=786411872
It revisited the now rising 50 day MA for the first time in over 5 weeks.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IPT.V&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p04646023281&a=1069200136
Hard to be positive…….. with a world full of realism …. lol……..
Humm……. realism…. More like planned parenthood…. lol…..
bought NUGT 50.47…what ever…glta
monthly EURO…down looks done a while on down eg .618 retrace hit and DXY rolling over…odds…
NEM day….perfect .786 rapid pullback with MACD signal intact…Is Buffett a good stock picker….hope so…note the single a leg a down and perfect V reversal symmetry…a reaction move rather than a trending move?…me thinks so…glta
sold nugt at 50.61….did not like the /gc price reversal…sorry…forget most of the above commentary…something is wrong in golds ville…will wait for a better price level or bottom confirmation
X marks the spot? GDX tested uptrend and fork support this morning right where the two crossed and is up about 1% since.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=18&id=p07527850427&a=1069111411
The silver miners have held up very well relative to the metal they mine. Never mind downside leverage, most are down significantly less than silver. That would not be the case if the big money “price makers” turned bearish along with the easily scared price takers.
HL vs SLV
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=18&id=p07527850427&a=1069111411
HL isn’t quite the bargain it was in March 2020, but it’s starting to look cheap again given current Ag prices. The market seems to agree…as you say, it isn’t dumping with the price of silver.
Oops, so sorry I posted the wrong chart above!
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HL%3ASLV&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p52107556688&a=1069133678
Biden Keeps Powell as Fed Chief, Elevates Brainard to Vice Chair
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Bloomberg – (11/22/2021)
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https://www.investing.com/news/economy/biden-keeps-powell-as-fed-chief-elevates-brainard-to-vice-chair-2686830