Weekend Show – 2022 Outlooks For US Markets and Commodity Stocks
We hope you all have a Happy New Year and a successful 2022!
On this Weekend’s Show we replay segments from this week all focused on 2022 projections for US Markets, commodities and all the underling stocks.
- Segment 1 – Dave Erfle, Founder and Editor of The Junior Miner Junky kicks off the show with his 2022 outlook for gold stocks and the short term trading strategy after tax loss selling season.
- Segment 2 and 3 – Richard Postma, AKA Doc took time with us this week to share his thoughts on how the US markets and metals are set up into next year. As Doc outlines Q1 will be very important for all markets but there are some key levels to watch for gold and the gold stocks.
- Segment 4 – Josef Schachter, Founder and Editor of the Schachter Energy Report joins us for a year end recap of the energy sector and outline the setup heading into 2022. We start with the supply and demand fundamentals focusing on the supply coming out of the US and OPEC.
Cory, Shad:
Just wanted to post my thanks for all you have done this year. One thing for sure I have learned a lot. This is truly a place that teachs “how to fish” as well as what to fish for.
As I look at my holdings I can see the effects of what I have learned here on KE Reports and other places. Knock on wood, but I know I’m making better choices today than I have in the past. Re: 2022 – I’m thinking Doc is more right that I would like him to be. I’m hoping for a Jan bounce to do some house cleaning but the crazy economic environment we live in hasn’t changed and the forces against economic sanity are still in place and running the show.
When I used to work in a lab doing research I spent many days, nights and weekends doing the same experiment over and over again knowing it should work but watching it fail. We are in the same place right now. Either you give up or wait for the “environment” to change to one where gold should do what it historically has done. That period may not last long but it will occur. I believe that in the long term truth is still the same. As I understand more about the history of gold in the 1900’s I see it has always been a problem for the “powers that be” and they do what they can to control it but ultimately the yellow metal will have its say and its day. It always has and always will.
Thank you Mike, and that is very nice feedback to receive, and very good thoughts you shared, as per usual. We work hard to bring on interesting thought leaders in the resource sector, generalists in macro economics, technical analysis, and company executives in the spirit of learning and refining ideas like you mentioned.
.
The goal is to have a hub of activity around investing where we all learn, share ideas, flush out different perspectives, and come out better informed. From all of that crowd-sourced thought exchange, we hope everyone can make better decisions and develope better strategies that match their own unique investing styles.
.
Wishing all the listeners and readers and contributors here at the KE Report a very prosperous new year in 2022.
‘No Escape From The Fed’s Money Printing Quagmire’
.
Jesse Felder – The Felder Report (01/01/22)
.
https://mailchi.mp/felder/money-printing-quagmire
I hope the change we experience in this New Year, takes us down a much different path than what we travelled in 2021. Happy New Year everyone! I’m looking forward to a more pleasant lifestyle in 2022. DT
+1
+ another 1
Jason Burack (Can Fed Raise Rates? Asset Bubbles, Commodity Bull Market, Gov Debt Problems)
.
George Gammon – The Rebel Capitalist – Dec 30, 2021
.
https://youtu.be/3aOirkk9hFw
Ex, Jason Burack is very knowledgeable, and may be a good one for the show occasionally.
Duly noted BDC. This is the first time I’ve come across him, but he had an interesting take on the macro markets. I’ll run the idea by Cory next week.
3 Big, Profitable New Year Trends
.
By Sean Brodrick on January 1, 2022
.
https://weissratings.com/en/wealth-wave/3-big-profitable-new-year-trends
After A Dreadful Year It’s Time For A Santa Rally In Gold Miners
.
by @Goldfinger on 13 Dec 2021
.
“After a stellar year in 2020, the precious metals mining sector has had a dreadful year in 2021; the GDXJ Junior Gold Miners ETF is down 25.2% so far in 2021 and many individual gold mining stocks are down 50% or more. Suffice to say, there isn’t much to be cheery about if you’ve been long gold miners in 2021. However, that could be about to change as bullish seasonal tailwinds begin to take hold over the next couple months:”
“Over the last 20 years gold has average about a 5% gain between mid-December and the end of February. A 5% gain from today’s price of $1788 would put gold tantalizing close to $1900, and likely trigger a sharp rally in beaten down and out of favor miners.”
“The largest gold miner in the world, Newmont (NYSE:NEM), is also sending a positive signal for the gold mining sector…”
.
https://ceo.ca/@goldfinger/after-a-dreadful-year-its-time-for-a-santa-rally-in-gold-miners
Here is a larger graphic of the 15 Year Seasonality Chart in Goldfinger’s article and that we discussed in yesterday’s interview with Robert. It highlights the strong tendency for Gold to climb out of the year end and into the January & February #Q1Run. At the bottom the 5 year and 30 year seasonality patterns are also included, and mirror this same seasonality trend of gold climbing out of December into Jan/Feb.
.
No 2 years are exactly the same, but the 30 year, 15 year, and 5 year seasonality charts all show there is a greater probability of seeing the bounce up that started in late December in the yellow metal continuing into the early part of the new year.
.
https://cdn-ceo-ca.s3.amazonaws.com/1grfb2s-GC%20G%20seasonal%20chart.JPG
Gold Stocks in 2022 with Pro Mining Investor David Erfle
.
Mining Stock Education – Dec 30, 2021
.
“In this interview pro mining investor David provides his commentary on the gold price and junior gold stock sector. He expects a strong January ’22 performance from the gold stocks and is overall optimistic for 2022. He also shares his biggest winner and loser from 2021 and the key thing he learned in 2021 as a mining stock speculator.”
.
https://youtu.be/PYEJ6-43jOw
Top Gold Stories Of The Year And What To Expect In 2022
.
Mining.com Editor | December 29, 2021
.
https://www.mining.com/top-gold-stories-of-the-year-and-what-to-expect-in-2022/
Gold Miners: Technical Action Is Solid
.
Morris Hubbartt – Dec 31, 2021 – Super Force #PreciousMetals #TechnicalAnalysis #VIDEO
.
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/sfs/hubbartt123121.html
The loonie is behaving the way it should be if the miners have bottomed.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDW&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&id=p36650571187&a=569434196
Nice break of that upper fork line! Hopefully it keeps going into the new year, but maybe a small pullback is in order early next week?
I think the odds do favor a pullback soon. It has moved up quickly and powerfully so the intraday charts are overbought and above their Bollinger bands. A caveat is that the daily chart is fine and leaves plenty of room to run so any pullbacks could be quicker and/or shallower than expected.
You remember the bet on Lithium vs Silver that we had in the summer where we wanted to look back at the end of the year?
Lithium was the clear winner in 2021
Nearly 500% over the year
LIT has been topping versus this sector since the summer. Here’s SILJ bottoming vs LIT (notice that it is down about 10 or 12 percent since we discussed the two):
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ%3ALIT&p=W&yr=3&mn=3&dy=0&id=p28841524822&a=997294166
The turns in each sector have dragged on and on but the message is the same if we care about risk-reward. LIT remains a “sell strength” while the gold space remains a “buy weakness”. LIT is unlikely to hold up in the weeks and months ahead and finally closed a month below its 5 month EMA — the first time in 20 months or so.
I posted this chart in November and so far so good…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=LIT%3AGLD&p=W&yr=3&mn=3&dy=0&id=p07203683413&a=1067169840
That’s a nice chart. I haven’t seen it in November
Thanks for reposting
I agree that lithium has gone a bit far with 500% in one year and is ready for a correction
Good discussion on Lithium guys. As we mentioned a number of times on here over this year, Lithium was a stellar performer in the commodities space in 2021, and many of the stocks were up 3x-10x off their March 2020 pandemic crash lows, but it looks like most of them have run their course at this point. I started the year in 5 companies, trimmed it down to 3, and eventually 1 and I’ve been out of Lithium stocks altogether since the late summer, to rotate those funds more into the PM sector, which looked much more overvalued. We’ll see if that was a good plan as we move into 2022, but based on the chart Matthew posted, it looks like that will be a good sector rotation out of Li and into Au and Ag stocks instead.
From today’s Jay Martin show:
“The NAV of bitcoin has to be a negative number. It’s an attenuating electronic fart with a chart. Just crazy stuff. Psychosis is the best explanation.”
What else is there to say …….
HAPPY NEW YEAR 🎊
I am more optimistic for 2022 than DOC is
I don’t see a liquidation event like 2020. There are first signs that the pandemic situation changes to an endemic situation and we might get back to normal life in 2022. If true, that should be positive for the stock markets
Inflation will be higher I think, what will be good for precious metals and precious metals miners
My favorite are still the battery metals for 2022, lithium, copper, nickel …
I think copper is probably a good bet, as lithium had already a good run in 2021
Some gold price predictions for 2022
ABN $1500
ANZ $1725
Scotia Bank $1850
World Bank $1750
It’s revealing that all those predictions are bearish to flat for 2022, and none of them have Gold breaking above $1900 this year, much less taking out the all time high of $2089. I believe we’ll see both those resistance levels taken out by Autumn 2022, or I wouldn’t be so heavily invested in the PM miners, but we’ll see how it goes…
Copper predictions for 2022 are between $4 – $5.39 ($/lb)
I like Goldman Sachs that see copper reaching $15000 per tonne in 2025
Joe Lowry‘s new year thoughts on lithium
$50000 is more likely in 2022 than the return to $13000
Copper predictions for 2022 are between $4 – $5.39
Goldman even sees $7 by 2025
There are a number of pundits that believe Copper will break the $5 level for good in 2022, but there are many on the other side of the fence expecting weakness in commodities for this coming year and see it pulling back down into the $3’s. We’ll see how it goes, but as the PM stocks get more traction an provide more profit taking events on rallies in the coming year, I’m going to start refortifying the copper positions I sold in 2021 to build up that sector again. I still have a handful of copper stocks, but want to add about a half dozen more by the end of the year to be going into 2023 with a dirty dozen copper stocks.
Wishing everyone a happy New Year. Thanks for producing the website Cory and Shad.
Thanks Aetas Aurea. Much appreciated and may your 2022 be very prosperous in health, wealth, family, fellowship, and life.
I am in several oil and gas producers they are moving up but not enough . My gold and silver stocks are not preforming and my decision to buy more food and soda pop stocks has done nicely. especially KO FIZZ PEP AND KDP ALL UP NICE FOR ME . If PUTIN DECIDES TO IN VALDE PART OF UKRAINE ALL BETS ARE OFF OIL , NAT GAS AND GOLD PRICES UP STOCKS DOWN. But Putin will probably not do it as his economy is poor in spite of higher gas oil price. after 20 years of putin he still has not developed a russian based computer chip bis , or his other sectors he over relys on commodities exports just like 20 years ago. Putin is smart . But his backing a destablising person like TRUMPET was a mistake a weaker USA makes for a weaker RUSSIA in the long run. more worried about China moving against hong kong [already happining ] and Tiwan . once again REPub paarty tries to weaken Biden when usa is under attyack by russia and china at same time. Trump is a disaster for GOP as it makes for warfare in GOP I pridict LIZ C AND LISA M will win thier races for Senate against TRumpet mouth. western voters dont like to recieve orders from NYC based Trumo although he pretends to be a FLA resident now. Reality is sinking in as covid infecton rates in fla texas and south sky rocket upward , hospitals slammed . pray for sanity and peace rsh
P leased get vaxed i just got my booster shot yesterday love to you all and best of health rsh
russell: Thanks for saying this. Just attended a funeral for a parent of a friend that refused to be vaxed. Sadly, I expect more of this to come.
I know we’ve asked this a number of times, but can folks please us the politics page to debate all things Covid 19, vaccines, and the range of opinions on the topics? It would be greatly appreciated, as this is the economics blog.
.
Having said that, if people have comments on how policies around Covid 19, shutdowns, vaccine mandates, etc… may actually effect the economy, the markets, small businesses, Fed policy, supply chain interruptions, etc… then those kinds of comments are more fitting for the comment sections here on the economic side of the site. Encouraging people to get the jab, or warning people against getting the jab… not so much… as that is more a personal preference and not really in the realm of economics or investing.
The pandemic is over, but it could take 18 months to get the “bombed” out of People’s Temple, Guyana.
https://twitter.com/SweetPeaZen/status/1478021398714990597
James Kunstler author of “The Long Emergency’ writes about The Dumpster Fires, and The Dumpster Divers of 2022, and beyond into the future. If you haven’t read Kunstler you should at least read this article, it will help you prepare for the future. DT
Will we see a stock market cash in 2022?
Harry Dent sees it coming in Q1
Matt McCall don’t sees a crash coming
Brussels Proposes Green Label For Nuclear And Natural Gas
.
Mehreen Khan in Brussels – December 31 2021
.
“In long-awaited plans, the European Commission has paved the way for investment in new nuclear power plants for at least the next two decades and natural gas for at least a decade, under a green labelling system known as the “taxonomy for sustainable finance”.
.
https://tinyurl.com/y8r26bsu
World’s Third Nuclear Reactor With Hualong One Tech Connected To Grid
.
02-Jan-2022 – CGTN
.
“Another nuclear facility using Hualong One technology, a domestically developed third-generation reactor design, was successfully connected to the power grid in southeast China’s Fujian Province on January 1. Unit No. 6 of Fuqing Nuclear Power Plant of the China National Nuclear Corp. became China’s second and the world’s third Hualong One reactor to achieve grid connection. The first nuclear reactor that uses Hualong One technology – Unit No. 5 of Fuqing Nuclear Power Plant – began commercial operation last January.
.
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-01-02/World-s-third-nuclear-reactor-with-Hualong-One-tech-connected-to-grid-16v7l47UyLC/index.html
Possibly fueled by CGN(1164:HK), which closed up 10+% Monday to start the new year.
SPQ(PE) : https://tinyurl.com/2vc9pznu
Happy New Year! Uranium Sunrise:
Bottom Monday or Tuesday?
Long BOIL.
BDC..agreed…..my major Resistance is the gap down on 12/2/21 at 4.056…the TAS support is double at 3.754…..meaning that both the bottom and middle TAS profile lines are at the same price point…big support…big…so if that fails to hold price something else is going on that i cannot comprehend at all…glta…oh, also look at the time symmetry in the two purple rectangular box’s from the original price breakout 7/8/21 down here to this low?….perfect….
BDC..I meant that the TAS at 7.54 is strong resistance…But i expect a few more days of building cause to pop above that price and it becomes strong support…..price is above my red OUL which is a positive in this bottoming process…cold weather will help…i am lousy yper and multi-tasker..lmao
https://postimg.cc/GBvWmcTx
There was a Chapman Wave bottom on Thursday (F). We are now in a deep Wave D up, which forms the BC of an ABCD. Hoping for two more steps to 27.63 (1:1). Maybe better.
This chartist (posted by Jason Burack) calls for one more significant NatGas dip, which probably won’t affect the current swing, but should definitely be taken into account. At about 8 minutes: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lPTuakRPcrg
Sold half. Now 50% long BOIL.
BOIL turned near a fork support that happened to be near BOIL’s shallowest uptrend support. The odds look good for at least a decent bounce.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BOIL&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&id=p56179439487&a=1065538381
Yes, and somewhere around 22 would be good after this swing concludes. Will see.
Thanks Matthew..The weekly view is real crisp……I actually think we get a retest of the high volume high back a few months ago……which is an atypical move for NG…I know…but problems in supply chains are effecting demand for NG in fertilizer production…plus all the demand building w russian pipeline shut off to europe…imho…glta
Sold remainder pre-market. Flat.
Contrary to popular belief, 2022 has been cancelled and we are entering the 13th month of 2021. General markets looking good… factual reasons supporting the positive General Markets are as follows:
There’s got to be a pony in here somewhere. Another great buying opportunity, so many double downs. Yes Doc, best to watch the paint dry, no rush for anything. Gary was cautiously optimistic for gold last trading day and opposite with general markets. By tomorrow he may flip again. Fun to watch the pundits.
Is it time to get into beaten down small to midcap producers that already have infrastructure in place?
Inflation caused by obstructed supply lines and shortages could really make projects less economic to build.
Is pure gold a good turnaround candidate?
Steve, there’s been a lot of commentary on small and midcap producers here so the answer to your first question is probably going to be ‘yes’.
Yes to part 2 as well I’d say…..but it may take a quarter or 2 for them to get out of the proverbial penalty box.
In the day The Day The Earth Stood Still, the aliens come to earth as friends of mankind. A flying saucer lands in a Washington D.C. park. Out comes an eight foot high robot named Gort, and a mild mannered, silver suited human called Klaatu. This is so typical of American domestic and foreign policy, The American government sends out the army to surround the craft. When Klaatu comes forward with his gift for The American President, the soldiers shoot the alien without waiting for him to speak. This movie was made in 1951, nothing has changed since then. DT
Aussie U
VMY +10%
DYL +7%
PDN +6%
BOE +4% Tuesday AM
Agreed gentlemen.
Happy new year!
cheers