John Rubino – Inflation, Fed Policy, US General Equities, Bonds, Gold As We Near Inflection Point

Shad Marquitz
February 14, 2022

John Rubino, Founder and Editor of The Dollar Collapse website, joins us to focus on the multiple currents affecting markets from inflation, to Fed policy, and how this is roiling general US equities and bonds, but makes the safe haven appeal of gold more compelling. We discuss how raging inflation showing up in so many areas of everyday life for citizens and in business will cause rates to surge, but then could lead to the mirror image of a deflationary recession a year or so after that.  Next we touched on the high levels of consumer spending seen in the marketplace to get in front of inflation, but often on credit, so not something that will be sustainable, as noted in slowing growth forecasts for the economy this year. 


Next the conversation gets into how long many have waited for this confluence of financial events to finally pin the central banks down in a corner where there is little that can be done, where generalists lose confidence, and we reflect in amazement at how long they’ve been able to kick the can down the road.  John references his pieces on the “Long Wave Versus The Printing Press”  outlining that at the time most of those wave theories were born out, it was during a sound money environment. The originators of those wave theories couldn’t have imagined a scenario where a world reserve currency was able to be printed in unlimited amounts injecting unprecedented liquidity, and he believe this is what has prolonged this cycle. Conversely this may mean the contraction cycle down will be far longer and extreme than most are planning for.   We wrap up with thoughts on how some allocation to gold and silver may be instrumental in weathering the financial storm and maintaining purchasing power in whatever system springs up after the great reset.

Click here to visit John’s site, The Dollar Collapse.

    Feb 14, 2022 14:11 PM

    Gold futures up in afterhours trading to $1,878.95.

    I thought we were supposed to be seeing the PMs pullback heading into the Fed rate hikes?

    Thus far it looks like the Q1 Run is playing out once again.

      Feb 15, 2022 15:00 AM

      It’s sure does Ex!

      Let’s see if we can now build a rounding bottom on that 4 hour chart and go tag $1910/$1920 and secure that higher intermediate weekly high that’s had us for a long period.

      $1910/$1920 first obstacle
      $1960 ish next
      $2000 plus

      All in due time..

        Feb 15, 2022 15:14 AM

        Sounds good Glenfidish. Yes, those upside targets will come all in due time at one point this year.

        While a weekly and monthly close above $1900 is key, I’m more interested in a close above $1920-$1921 as that was a significant peak last year, and $1921 was the prior all time high from 2011 with a lot of market memory there. Closes above that open up $1962-$1966, and then the all time high of $2089 come in focus.

      Feb 15, 2022 15:24 AM

      At the moment I think the situation in the Ukraine is the main factor for the markets behavior

        Feb 15, 2022 15:32 AM

        Thomas, I’d agree that the Ukraine situation is playing a part in some of the market gyrations, and the tension deescalating may have been why gold sold off today to a degree (but the emergency Fed meeting was also a concern and nothing happened).

        There are many complex factors playing into the gold price (interest rates, currencies, anticipated Fed policy, general market health, inflation expectations, etc…) Geopolitical events play into it, but are typically fleeting influences.

    Feb 14, 2022 14:20 PM
    Feb 14, 2022 14:33 PM

    Gold must be pricing in political winds of change such as, WHOSE on 1st….

    Feb 14, 2022 14:44 PM

    Justin Trudeau The Prime Minister of Canada was publicly humiliated by the truckers movement. Instead of dealing with the crisis he claimed to have covid and went into hibernation.

    The economic disease we are presently seeing is not temporary but organic and deep seated. Our leaders have gone so far down the road with endless money printing, that they cannot change the prescription without public embarrassment.

    The failure of the treatment of raising interest rates is so obvious to the point of humiliation that the only option left to The Federal Reserve is to lapse into silence. They can no longer offer cheerful prognostications, they must admit defeat and get on with being physicians of the economy or step aside. There is a lack of leadership unlike anything I have ever seen. DT

    Feb 14, 2022 14:24 PM

    While gold is rising versus the dollar it will be falling versus the gold miners.

      Feb 15, 2022 15:03 AM

      Time for the miners to outperform? long awaited

      Thanks for the chart below

        Feb 15, 2022 15:22 AM

        Watch out Glen…you may get stoned in the public square. 🙂

          Feb 15, 2022 15:39 PM

          I think getting stoned in the public square is legal in most places these days. 😉

    Feb 14, 2022 14:41 PM

    It’s interesting that the mainstream media isn’t mentioning the closed Fed board meeting that happened today under “Expedited Procedures.” We just might wake up to an announcement of a .5% rise in the Fed’s discount rate.

      Feb 14, 2022 14:23 PM

      That is interesting. Thanks for the heads up Matthew.

      Feb 15, 2022 15:06 AM

      R is 3/4 back in the PM sector/leveraged and PM stocks….hopefully we weather through this back-test and put this 18 month correction behind us!

        Feb 15, 2022 15:48 AM

        deja vu all over again.

        Feb 15, 2022 15:05 PM

        Thanks confused!

      Feb 15, 2022 15:17 AM

      Release of FOMC minutes is no longer listed for tomorrow!

      Feb 15, 2022 15:24 AM

      Fed Meeting…that is right. You mentioned that last week and now crickets. Maybe they decided that doing anything dramatic might cut their own throat and rather than issue a “surprise statement”, they elected to order out for Pizza….we need to keep an eye out as it would be manipulative to say the least.

        Feb 15, 2022 15:33 AM

        I don’t believe anything substantive came from the emergency Fed meeting, so it was a bit of a nothing burger.

          Feb 15, 2022 15:40 PM

          Burgers not pizza…

            Feb 15, 2022 15:32 PM

            It was a cheeseburger pizza…. (but hold the burger…) 😉

    Feb 15, 2022 15:19 AM

    Copper Lake put out initial drill results this morning and got some results … mostly zinc it looks like. But some copper,silver, gold along with it. Evidently there was a leak as it went up almost 40% yesterday on no news, but also has been going up and down a couple of times during the last couple of months. It is around .15 cents before news (US). Historic drill area, so some knowledge already.

      Feb 15, 2022 15:39 AM

      …and some lead. Thunder Bay area Ontario.

    Feb 15, 2022 15:30 AM

    War must be over which is bad for commodities evidently. Inflation doesn’t matter nor the unpayable debt. Corporate America shows signs of depression and disappointment. Only through War can we experience peace and happiness. … Just another counter intuitive day.
    PPI up 1% and hot…might give gold some recovery from lack of war.

      Feb 15, 2022 15:07 AM

      PPI 9.7% annual …I think.

      Feb 15, 2022 15:07 AM

      PPI 9.7% annual …I think.

      Feb 15, 2022 15:02 AM

      Some info circulating that the FBI indicated that Zero Hedge put up some Russian based articles that falsely represented the War situation. Don’t know if CNBC was using them as the basis to pump the general markets this AM or not…

        Feb 15, 2022 15:20 PM

        All put out by “Associated” Press………. AP………..
        zerohedge watches the Ker Orphan Section….. for the front running details…. lol…. 🙂
        Real News
        CIA, going after Irish Tony…. for cloverleaf trading… and trade mark infringements on the
        Lucky Charms……. 🙂

          Feb 15, 2022 15:34 PM

          Poor IrishT… They’re always after his Lucky Charms…. (and Silver horde)…..

          (even though we all remember his silver stash is buried under the fish pond).

          “Learn to swim with the fishes…”

    Feb 15, 2022 15:59 AM

    Make believe still looking good … crypto and banks up.

      Feb 15, 2022 15:30 AM

      Oil down despite Putin having his troops drive tanks and personnel carries in circles through farmland all over western Russia.

    Feb 15, 2022 15:55 AM

    i am out of boil on this lousy technical 10 minute chart retest…no volume no OBV behind it under 5 minutes…i consider this retest a gift….imho 11:55 est

      Feb 15, 2022 15:09 PM

      Yes indeed, a gift it is.
      Interestingly and bullishly, the silver miners are down much less than silver and even less than the gold miners. For example, at the moment, SILJ is down .16% (2 cents) while SLV is down 1.95% and GDX is down 1.6%.

        Feb 15, 2022 15:07 PM

        In the last second of trading, SILJ popped to 12.60, up 1 cent for the day while SLV finished down 2%.
        At its low for the day, SILJ was down about 3.75% while SLV was down about 3.3%. So even at its worst, SILJ offered bullishly little downside leverage to silver.

    Feb 15, 2022 15:34 AM

    Keeping up with my ongoing posting of information in the FWIW category:
    As usua,l another split day in performance:
    But …interesting fact at the moment:
    Of my 9 best performers long term: Only 1 is positive: Silver Tiger
    Of my 9 worst performers long term: Only 1 is negative: Millennial Precious Metals
    Conclusion: None as tomorrow may be the reverse.

      Feb 15, 2022 15:45 AM

      By George……. I think you got it……….. 🙂

        Feb 15, 2022 15:20 AM

        What do I take for it?

          Feb 15, 2022 15:35 AM

          1 low dose asprin for heart health.

            Feb 15, 2022 15:45 PM

            I will take it when they loosen the straps on my straitjacket.

            Feb 15, 2022 15:42 PM

            Keep me informed how that works out, as I’m just now getting fitted for my straightjacket.

            Feb 15, 2022 15:50 PM

            Just Tell them you prefer…….. short sleeves…………

            Feb 15, 2022 15:10 PM

            haha! good one OOTB!

    Feb 15, 2022 15:39 PM

    Despite everyone in authority insisting that War is possible in the Ukraine…Wall Street insists that the current social and economic conditions are Not in favor of commodities. As usual, there is no indication that reality will impact the direction of the metals that began at open today. The garbage continues to pile up, but is never removed.