Weekend Show – Adrian Day, Doc and Brian Leni – Macro Comments With Technical Analysis, Where Do Gold and Markets Go From Here?
Welcome to another KE Report Weekend Show! We now have April behind us which was a tough month for almost every asset, except of the US Dollar. Fed rate hikes, China’s lock-down and many other factors are contributing to a risk off shift by investors. The worry is that everything is getting sold off.We discuss it all in this weekend’s show.
Please keep in touch by emailing us at both Fleck@kereport.com and Shad@kereport.com.
- Segment 1 – Adrian Day, President of Adrian Day Asset Management and Manger of the Euro Pacific Gold Fund kicks off the show by focusing on the macro economic environment that leads to a discussion on recession fears. The Fed rate hike next week and market perceptions are key to recent market moves.
- Segment 2 and 3 – Richard Postma, AKA Doc, joins us for an extended segment on what he sees in the charts for gold, gold stocks, silver, the US Dollar and bonds. We keep it as simple as possible sharing price levels and times frame estimates for future moves.
- Segment 4 – Brian Leni, Founder and Editor of The Junior Stock Review wraps up the show by shifting out focus to mid tier precious metals development companies. These stocks have been sold off with the rest of the sector but some are generating great financial results and have already stated to bounce back.
Exclusive Company Interviews This Week
- Skeena Resources – A Discussion And more Details On The Inaugural ESG Report
- Reyna Gold Corp – Exploration Update On First 8 Drill Holes From The La Gloria Project
- Metallic Minerals – Maiden Resource Estimate At La Plata Comes Out Near 116 Million Tonnes Copper Equivalent
- Cartier Resources – Now The Largest Land Position East Of Val-d’Or, Here Are The Exploration Plans For This Year
- Mako Mining – A Review of 2021 Financials, Q1 2022 Operations, And The Upcoming Exploration Plan
- Colibri Resources – Exploration Update At The Pilar, Diamante, and Evelyn Projects
- Metalla Royalty & Streaming – The Market Environment For Royalty Companies and An Update On Assets Coming Online In The Near Term
- Kodiak Copper – 2nd Drill rig On Site Testing New Targets, Here Are The Key Targets Being Drilled
- Radisson Mining Releases High Grade Gold Intercepts At Trend 0 From Deep Directional Drilling
You’re absolutely right, Michael. Many are starting to wake up to the fact that they have been defrauded in the worst way but of course many others are incapable of waking up for a variety of reasons.
The Pfizer (PFE) chart does not look good and that’s probably because shareholders get a lot more respect than Pfizer customers when it comes to legal rights and therefore transparency.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U3bXXqUO6eQ&list=TLPQMjgwNDIwMjI1gjU8mYAdeA&index=8&ab_channel=Redacted
Normally I would think this is a great time to buy junior explorers, but with the supply chain breakdown and coming famine, and possible start of WW III, I wonder if we should be buying more food and ammo.
We could just buy all three.
Isnt there a sell in may rule? Doc, your not the first person Ive heard say gold is coming down, so far 1650 is the lowest guess Ive heard. one thing that doesnt seem to change is the payoff for PMs is always in the future.
I wonder what challenges to trading rubles there might be, if there is any point owning them.
The value seems to be rising. Should the Russian plans of “officially” be backed by commodities and gold its going to take alot of currency units to buy oil/gas etc, looks like rising prices for us.
Owning rubles could end up being a very positive thing to do.
Thanks to all the KER guest contributors for another great week of daily editorials, company interviews with management, and another solid weekend show with Adrian, Doc Postma, and Brian.
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Also thanks to all the listeners of the podcast and radio show, and those members of the KER crew that post and participate here on the blog, sharing insights with our community. Ever Upward!
Here’s Your Stagflation Roadmap
Jesse Felder – The Felder Report (04/30/2022)
‘We Are All Frogs In A Steadily Heating Monetary Broth’
Jesse Felder – The Felder Report (04/23/2022)
Gold & Us Dollar – What Is Going On Here? Hint: Inflation
Northstar Badcharts – April 30, 2022 #TechnicalAnalysis
“DXY is up from 92 to 103 and gold is also up over the same period. What’s going on? What does it mean?”
Ex, after we talked on Friday, the S&P took out that very important 400 EMA on the daily charts and closed below it. It also closed below the lows in March—-technically not a good sign. If you’re a bear, you would like the Monday opening to challenge that 400 EMA and then fail.
Yes, good observation Doc, and the general markets from the S&P to the Nasdaq to the Russell 2000 are showing more signs of weakness, and like Dana Lyons mentioned in his interview on Friday, they may bounce up to resistance, but then many of these sectors could head back down to test prior recent lows or even break lower, so we’ll have to see how things develop from here in the medium term.
BTW – Did you see my skype message on the growth-oriented gold producers? Cheers!
I did—-thanks.
Hey Ex – Can you send me that Skype?
Sure thing amigo. Here is the message I sent over to Doc.
Here are some of the “growth-oriented” small to mid-tier gold producers that I’m still quite constructive on and have been building positions in the last 1-2 years:
Karora Resources
Calibre Resources
Superior Gold
I-80 Gold Corp
Minera Alamos
Mako Mining
Steppe Gold
Aris Gold
* I would have included Argonaut Gold with this list, but when they completely miscalculated the costs for Magino and then got rid of the CEO Peter suddenly and out of left field I sold them and put them in time-out to re-evaluate how things will proceed with the higher capital now needed.
All of those companies are set to double production in the next 1-2 years, and some plan on doubling it again from there. Some of them are in what are considered riskier jurisdictions, but I believe their growth profiles outweigh those risks…. still, they are a factor to keep considering.
I still like all the usual suspects in the silver and gold producers like we’ve discussed in the past like Equinox, Silvercorp, Endeavour Silver, Hecla, Coeur, Fortuna, Jaguar, Alamos, Wesdome, etc… but they are keeping things more status quo in comparison to the companies mentioned above with bigger growth in their production slated for 2023 and beyond. Well, actually if Endeavour Silver gets their big development project Terronera into production, then it will double their production profile, so that could still be a big catalyst for them in the silver category.
In addition I still like some of the really ugly looking fixer-uppers and turn-around stories like McEwen, Americas Gold & Silver, Alexco, etc… that have been trounced by the markets due to mining setbacks and being behind schedule. I think the worst of the hiccups are behind those companies now, and that they’ve been overly beat up at this point, and may have more potential to run when the worm turns in the sector as a result. Also all 3 are dual-listed which gives them access to many investors on US platforms that can’t access OTC stocks.
Thanks Ex. Great summary. I bought some AXU Friday.
Yeah, I also bought some AXU last week around $1.08. It may go down and test the trough at $0.95, but if so I’ll add a one more tranche down there.
Hi Ex, I own the first three on your list and am happy to do so. DT
+3 DT.
I smell a market crash very soon. DT
In a stagflationary economy…I smell excremental growth…
That’s a classic clip Ebolan. 😆
Never try saying incremental and exponential in the same sentence. 🙂
+1
I don’t know about a crash but May and June could definitely get ugly since the bears did their job in April.
Nasdaq:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24COMPQ&p=M&yr=25&mn=0&dy=0&id=t1991988038c&a=1154968320&r=1651368947815&cmd=print
The NYSE does not look good either…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYA&p=M&yr=25&mn=0&dy=0&id=t1357791485c&a=1154970216&r=1651369835272&cmd=print
And poor Kathy Wood…she sure got the wood put to her (ARKK)…how do you think that plays out?
I don’t know anything about her but I bet her favorite line from a movie is the same as Fauci’s:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bo7zkd0kRS4&ab_channel=LakedaimoniosSparta
ARKK is already 70% off its high and at a 2 year support zone but I think it’s going lower. But even if it doesn’t, it will need a lot of time to get itself in technical shape again.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ARKK&p=M&yr=11&mn=0&dy=0&id=t1507140337c&a=1155034785&r=1651373895519&cmd=print
Or maybe this…ARKK Innovation Fund senior partners…
That is one ugly chart…and I agree about its possible future…my guess is it gets chopped in half from here…probably takes awhile for that…and what agony for the share holders twisting in the wind.
For the first time in 3.33 years, the S&P 500 priced in gold has a new monthly MACD sell signal. That’s a good thing but if history repeats, it could mean that we are about to get a multi month countertrend move.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX%3A%24GOLD&p=M&yr=35&mn=3&dy=0&id=t3541004028c&a=1104679669&r=1651371651252&cmd=print
Luckily, the gold-silver miners did very well following the SPX:Gold monthly MACD sell signals (which makes sense since it doesn’t take much stock market money seeking a new home to have a positive impact on such a small sector — a sector that happens to be a derivative of the safest of safe havens: gold).
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX%3A%24GOLD&p=M&yr=13&mn=3&dy=0&id=p82482386002&a=1155033830&r=1651372508036&cmd=print
This SPY:GDX chart is better, more clear-cut than the SPX:Gold chart above. The picture bodes very well for our miners THIS YEAR, contrary to the words of some around here.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY%3AGDX&p=M&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=t6791149288c&a=1155491804&r=1651465131482&cmd=print
How about forget about gold for couple of days and go with KWEB:SPY
or
CWEB:SPXL
In SPY or dollars, that’s kwite the KWEB kwash.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=KWEB%3ASPY&p=M&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&id=t0617985727c&r=1651467384889&cmd=print
The stock market is in for one helluva drop versus the gold miners and an even bigger one versus the silver miners.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24COMPQ%3A%24XAU&p=M&yr=13&mn=11&dy=0&id=p14136124269&a=1155502129&r=1651466597033&cmd=print
Yesterday’s SPY:GDX link went bad so here it is again.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY%3AGDX&p=M&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p53011880295&a=1155491804&r=1651512686326&cmd=print
Coming to a theater near you soon—-“2000 mules”.
Come on, Doc…our rulers are just making sure we get millions of new friends…so all us tax mules better open up our wallets wider…because friends ain’t cheap…
The Dow dipped two days for one thousand points last week. I wonder where the circuit breakers are set to go into overload, would 2000 points in one day do it, then we get a two week bank holiday.
Next the financial prophets, the wizards of the gong show in the Great Hall of the New York Stock Exchange try to decide whether things are going to get better or worse.
A banker with unsold securities on his hands is not likely to say anything that will make it more difficult to dispose of them.
Then they use the last tool in their toolbox, these soothing words come out of Washington, “the economy has hit a rough patch but we believe the worst is over”.
As the markets re-open the day after there is calm in the morning but in the afternoon the storm breaks out in full force! CRASH! DT✔
Paper hit on gold at about 8:00EST. Another potential Monday intervention probably sponsored by your local Central Bank.
Always darkest before the dawn Lake.
8:00PM Sunday EST “intent”. Intent would be important in a society that prosecuted criminal acts. In this case it doesn’t apply.
0uch!!
It’s ok though if you compare gold to spx ratios with its positive performance. No comfort with this touted strategy. The candy store offerings heading towards foreclosure LOL
You should learn how to read charts because the conclusions you draw are embarrassing. The first thing you should learn is to avoid making short term assessments based on long term charts. Today changes nothing about the bullish implications of the monthly S&P vs gold or vs GDX and that should be OBVIOUS to you.
what’s obvious is the fact you don’t make money by losing less by holding and then doubling down on anything that declines less than a pair counterpart.
Any insight on Sandstorm merger with Nomad ?
Hi Badgergal – I was a little startled to see the news on Sandstorm taking over Nomad, but not surprised, as we’ve been discussing on here for 2-3 years that we needed to see some consolidation in the royalty space, and we absolutely have seen just that over the last year or so.
First up we had Gold Royalty Corp taking over Ely Gold, and then they took over Abitibi Royalty and Golden Valley Mines, and now GROY is still in the extended period to take over Elemental Royalties, but it looks like it is going to fail to get enough support, because the deal is not that accretive for current shareholder.
I had mentioned here and over at ceo.ca that if the larger royalty companies didn’t wake up and pay attention that GROY was going to accumulate the whole sector, and mentioned the 2 best prizes were Nomad and Maverix, and then after that there was Metalla, Vox, Elemental, EMX, Altius, Anglo Pacific, Star Royalties, Empress, Orogen, etc…
Looks like Sandstorm is scooping up Nomad for a 34% premium, and Nomad holders will own 28% of Sandstorm…. which is fine with as they are my 2 heaviest weighted royalty companies in my portfolio already. Having said that it is a little bittersweet because Nomad had the most room to be rerated higher based on their cashflowing royalties alone, not to mention their development assets, and this deal nips that off at the bud. In that sense, I wish they had been given more time to spread their wings, but Sandstorm is still also pretty beatdown as well, so at least it wasn’t one of the bloated behemoths like Franco, Royal Gold, Wheaton, or Osisko that bought Nomad. At least with Sandstorm some of that same re-rating trajectory higher remains
Once they are combined I believe Sandstorm with have one of the most enviable royalty portfolios for growth around in the sector. Just to keep it confusing, as part of the Sandstorm / Nomad merger deal, Sandtorm is simultaneously picking up 9 royalties and a metals stream from a different company Basecore Metals (a subsidiary of Glencore), adding even more to the Sandstorm portfolio.
“At the closing of the transaction, Sandstorm’s resulting portfolio will total 260 streams and royalties, of which 39 are cash flowing with no asset contributing more than 15% to Sandstorm’s net asset value…”
Maverix has a fantastic growth profile though, so I’ve often thought, whichever company picks them up is going to have an amazing portfolio. At this point, I’d love to see Maverix and Metalla do a merger of equals before the big boy royalty corps scoop them up in separate vehicles. Then there is the new on the scene larger mid-tier Triple Flag Precious Metals. It could easily gain on Wheaton or Osisko by buying out Maverix or Metalla or maybe Vox, but I feel like Osisko has the most in common with EMX Royalty and would like to see them tie the knot if everything is going to be accumulated soon.
The US loves fiat currency, Russia and China love Gold, gold is being spanked because Russia is backing the ruble with gold and other commodities. The west and in particular The US wants to preserve their status as a Reserve Currency, so gold gets taken down at every turn. I know who the losers are here, Got Gold! DT
gdx weekly…if this was a simple daily chart correction you could say done…but if this is a weekly intermediate correction…say not yet imho…i am watching for a three gap play down on weekly, (speculation)….in other words…a cascade down in next 10 trading days…the MACD cross over just occurred on weekly now……..so i must hold…good news is it a small doji candle for now which is easily turned into a swing low next week…the support in my method is the lower TAS profile support line in this bearish structured profile…30.1..no idea for sure just putting it out there…
the daily macd beta is expanding now and so supports this sort of thinking…slow stoch daily is embedded, so is bearish..no daily rsi divergence yet…not strong yet imho
be patient…it matters to get the price soon after the turn….
but time analysis says we may get a bottom due to daily testing at the TD9 breakout level ..the red horizontal line…..i hold off when in doubt…glta….i think the market in general is dangerous for equity…right now anyways……daily shows meaningful support now..
PMs likely swing low today. More later.
ok BDC i do get what you are seeing…Also any input from all others on the fundamentals like what does FED day wed. trigger?…..buying or selling….
EX Matthew Chartster OOTB any idea about a/the FED trigger?…directionaly?…i have no real feel for any of this directionally
Hello larry………….
I am not guessing at this point….. anything can happen…… JMO
Price Quality: https://tinyurl.com/yc794bru
The tell was Friday into Pre-Market.
More L8r …
Strong Bottom, but general markets a drag. Will see.
.
OT: The CIA — developer of “Conspiracy Theory” to disparage those who questioned that a ‘single bullet’ killed JFK — now spreads the “Mad Putin” conspiracy theory using their Operation Mockingbird MSM resource, while an American (U.S.) military nearly devoid of flag competence complies. Interesting times.
Follow-up OT (last): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IPrDl414AFM
Russian author (U.S. citizen) Andrei Martyanov and others.
From today (may be best played for you at 90%).
ok BDC appreciate follow through….metal price inside day so no info in it yet
Todays action is a flaunting by Central Banks that they “own” the Justice Department. As long as the Justice Department sits silent and inactive, the Fascist State of Corporate Control will be ingrained. Todays market activity is a farce.
i just spoke w an ex f-16 pilot friend…he said sometime around may 9…Putin will be threatening the world w escalating the war and the rumor is he will launch a non nuclear icbm…notice the vix was up large w market up a bit…sometimes put buyers are correct when they buy insurance…rumors and rumors of war….gold will go up in icbm missile war but the miners will be crushed…this is not a normal market …imho
Ditto larry……….. this is not a normal market….. and has not been for a long time……
Note from Bloomberg
Japanese institutional managers — known for their legendary U.S. debt-buying sprees in recent decades — are now fueling the great bond selloff just as the Federal Reserve pares its $9 trillion balance sheet.
So he’ll launch an ICBM with no payload and drop it into the Nevada desert unscathed, just to prove to the US that he is capable of doing that?
target is England…this is just military rumors…was passing along…missile i did not think…but escalation yes…
BoJo needs some hardware landing on his roof but the other fine people of England shouldn’t be held responsible for his big mouth.
Russia has been capable of reaching US with Air to Air missiles for a very long time. The only thing Putin can prove is that he is a homicidal maniac. Since that is a known, dropping a missile in the US without a war head is the same as blowing up apartment buildings full of civilians as well as shooting them in the streets of Ukraine.. How do you stop criminals from doing irrational acts without the Criminal destroying everything they touch. Very difficult if they use the protection of misinformed loyalists that can not think or interpret what is before their senses.
Germany is going to hold a meeting with India to swing them over to an international rebuke of mad man Putin. There should be an effort to unite all leaders, except of course the other murderers in autocratic countries and get the word to Russia that they may get to kill a bunch of innocent people, but there will not be any of them left to write the history. Autocrats don’t see the importance of human life, but the rest of us do.
What is sad about you lakedweller, is that you are educated but you can’t see through “The Red Scare” that your government has been promoting since 1917. You can’t even see how many millions of innocent civilians The US has killed since the end of The Second World War. SHAME ON YOU! DT
DT:
I appreciate your lack of confidence in my training and education, but I can assure you I have had my foot in the door of the Constitution and its meaning much more than the average Q supporter. Corruption has gotten us here. Corporate power and influence has driven the train. Weakass self interested politicians with no understanding of Ethics spout the lies and spin the truth from every direction. The law overtime has matured until we have arrived at certain agreements that try to civilize war in hopes of keeping the mentally defected leaders that never seem to go away or capable of controlling their self interested behavior from overwhelming fair and equitable goals of all. Thus we have massive theft by Central Banking, negation of the checks and balances of a democratic system with the crowning blow the undermining of the Supreme Court for political purposes with the purpose of destroying the law (while the fools scream for the Second Amendment and don’t realize that their freedoms in every other way have been compromised).
But let’s get back to war. There is no purpose in War at all except take property of another by force which has always been “robbery” whether Indian lands or personal freedoms through slavery. But when your means to wage war is by killing defenseless civilians and attempt to justify it by nothing but Q level fabrications and misdirection…it is pure evil…just as destroying Arab Countries through preemptive strikes and invasions to secure economic control over resources or wealth. There are those among us that believe some how we as Americans are entitled due to a superior religion or race or just because we played right tackle instead of being a backstroke specialist on the swimming team, that being able hurt someone physically despite that requiring to set aside any rational thought about equality, that somehow bullying, name calling, hate, bigotry and self stimulation should always prosper over the rights of others. Much to the Contrary, it requires a sense of maturity and intellectual development to resist force and be able to diplomatically resolve issues, even if it means compromise rather than convert the personal property or freedoms of another. I don’t care what country, what town what city or what Club you belong to.
That brings me to my point: Putin is a murdering son of a bitch and there is no rationale for his actions any more than there was for Cheney and Bush doing a preemptive strike on Iraq. They are all war criminals and have subhuman intellect. I can expand on this if you would like,
Lakedweller, your country does not negotiate with others anymore, it hasn’t for a long time it merely dictates and expects others to heel, and if they don’t it strikes. The US has been a violent country that has been at war since 1941, and can’t accept others who don’t bow down to their wishes. DT
Right on DT, I was gonna say that myself.
So show me where I said my country does all the right things. I am saying corruption is allowed to rule. How about price suppression of metals. Did I say I love that we do market intervention better than every one else. No. Did I say I liked the fact that the US government puts out false economic data that distorts all markets, fundamentals and technicals. No. Have I said anything about all the wars we have been involved in result in failure because of misdirected purpose. No. Have you. Appears so.
Let’s talk strictly Geneva Convention. Rules resulting from a group of people representing the majority of people in the world, in an attempt to recognize that every person has a right to life. That no one person has a right to take that life. That we have a right to property and no one has a right to take property by force. That civilians and noncombatants including 1 year old kids have a right to remain free from a missile being shot into their living room by some psychopathic fruitcake. That property rights have been well established to make sure continued abuses of “force” don’t prevail. On and on and on like torture, no Guantanamo’s (that is US and I say No. ). If we have prisoners of war from a wrongful war, they should be treated under our Constitution and not Cheney’s misconception of treatment (hiring foreign nations to house prisoners for the US so they can torture and kill at will…I say No). Or Obama firing missiles into neighborhoods to kill a single person and wiping out the favorite grocery store and inhabitants.. I say no.
I am not sure of your point but this Corrupt society of the US has been fostered by greed and self interest. I say no. I say yes to the Constitution and fair and equitable treatment. I say No to tolerating the corruption. I say No to lies and Misdirection. I say No to the Justice Department not getting aggressive. I say no to filling the Justice Department with the “bad guys” from Wall Street and Corporate Defense Firms. I say no to Corporations and High Net worth people owning the Media. I say No to the dissolution of investigative reporting. I say Yes to state funded election and no special interest contributions. These are all things which deeply trouble me about our violent past as a country. I say No to all those that refuse to fix these issues and more.
Added: Putin or any other or person has no right to commit war atrocities or crimes. Saying “oh yeah others do it…is exactly why it is spreading and people are accepting their own death wish. Where does one draw the line. Campaign fraud, campaign contributions, false information, spin, fake news…rape, murder, genocide…. nuclear total destruction. Where does one personally draw the line….how far until we are too far down the line to stop armageddon. How many wish it could have been stopped at Voter fraud and redistricting.
Lake your not the only one with those convictions related to autocratic rule, except as you’ve discovered this is not the forum to express them. There is no corruption we have, or red scare since 1917 to justify Putin’s depravity, Or rationalizing his actions as somehow being understandable, or genius by dopes like Trump who also want to rule.
Looks like I am the only one that is opposed to War Crimes and Corruption. Very enlightening.
You are not enlightened at all, your thinking is very one dimensional and not thought out. DT
My comment is out for review. In the meantime, it takes 2 positions to have a debate. We have my 1 dimensional position vs a claim of a more dimensional view. A claim automatically does not add anything.
Another thought: My Lai v Putin’s Ukraine (similarity of targets)
Isn‘ t there a new paradigma on the table, that almost none of all the experts takes into account?
The well-being of the economies is not in the focus of the politicians and the Central Banks anymore!
Isn’t there the WEF-Gang which openly proclaims that they will take away everything from all of us?
What better way to expropriate the citizens than to drive them into bankruptcy, which, by the way, they have done everywhere big time during the COVID-regime?
Look at the leaders of Australia, Austria or Canada. Whom are they really serving?
No Big Pharma-guy, no Big tech-guy, no politician will feel the pain of the consequences of high inflationary periods.
The media will put the responsibilities on selected scapegoats.
I repeat: The WEF-crowd is openly talking about their aims and almost all of the Western leaders, even Xi JinPing from China, obviously are affiliating.
Here in Germany already certain ministers are threatening to expropriate Energy Companies.
So please, this has nothing to do with conspiracy-theory.