Craig Hemke – Review Of The Macroeconomic Data That Is Driving The Markets
Craig Hemke, Founder and Editor of TF Metals Report, joins us to review the key macroeconomic data driving the markets, and the continued overall weakness in the general equities, bonds, and precious metals. We did note the brief bounce in bonds and corresponding pullback in interest rates, as well as the downward move in the US dollar that gave a lift to gold and silver today. The discussion covers a number of macro factors including the key support levels in the PMs, thoughts regarding the ongoing Fed rate hiking cycle, persistently high inflation, and some of the data and economic news that Craig will be looking for next week.
Bought Max Resources Monday. Was hanging around then popped to +14% if interested. Eric Coffin put out a letter, so maybe something in that.
Now NG Energy popped into close. News tomorrow???
I added back SSVFF, Southern Silver during MIF on Monday and it first dropped but today got back to even with about +10%. Nothing new that I saw today, but went back and reviewed last drill results: silver, gold, copper, lead and zinc. Good silver and zinc. The reason I mention is the .20 cent price
Lakedweller2 – Thanks for sharing your recent trades and what has been catching your eye. Out of those you mentioned I also have a position in NG Energy, and used to have a position 2 years back in Southern Silver, but haven’t looked at it recently. Not familiar with Phenom, and haven’t looked at Max Resource in a long time, but will check those both out. Cheers!
AXU trading like it is going to go bankrupt. Still making lower lows vs just about everything including silver.
The last 12 months and especially the last 3 months have been an absolute nightmare.
While AXU is certainly capable of double or tripling quickly, the sad reality is this type of chart damage is libel to be a drag on its upside potential for years.
Over the last few years I thought that it could retest its 2011 highs at some point. That seems a million miles off now. At this point I wouldn’t be shocked if it topped out at $3 when silver hits $50.
green, when silver hits $50, anything remotely resembling silver will be at highs. Including pgm already up over 16% today, now that’s a good start LOL
PGM: +16% … been awhile
Looked at a chart and it had a nice stair-step formation. Don’t know if that means anything but it looks good.
My biggest gainer today was Calibre (CXB) up 22% on the day.
Amex Exploration (AMX) also did well up 15% today.
Blackrock Silver (BRC) up 15% today as well.
Ex: Great performance on 3 I used to own. Are you good or what?
The good news…we are talking green.
Well done! I missed that one.
Thanks Lakedweller2 & Terry. I don’t mean to imply my whole portfolio was up that much today, as I have a large basket of stocks, but Calibre is my heaviest weighted gold stock at this point so it was a significant contributor today being up 22%.
It looks like even Taylor D. was impressed with their quarterly operations, and he rarely has much nice to say about most of the companies he writes up.
(CXB) (CXBMF) Calibre Mining: Organic Growth At A Very Reasonable Price
May 19, 2022 – Taylor Dart – Seeking Alpha
Up even more if you bought at recent low.
Well, I’ve bought Calibre in 12 tranches (which doesn’t include a 13th buy that I swing-traded out of for a quick trade). 6 of them were below or very near where things traded today, and the other 6 buys were at slightly higher prices. The lowest pricepoint I got was when I added a tranche yesterday on 05/18, so that was well-timed considering the follow-through action today.
On the position overall, including all 12 tranches purchased I’m still down about 9.4%, but will be holding from here and feel very confident that the Calibre will be trading at much higher levels a year from now. It is unusual for me to buy so many times in a row on a company (as I typically only do 3-5 tranches), but after talking with Ryan over a dozen times over the last 2 years and getting a pretty good grasp on their operation and exploration strategy, it’s my favorite growth-oriented producer and I have high conviction they are going to be a stand-out mid-tier producer in another year or two.
Big gap down for Gold vs HUI:
Silver set a bear trap and the usual suspects fell for it.
Let’s see if tomorrow is better. Fridays have been ok. It is Mondays that are dangerous.
I agree with you, Fridays have been unusually decent this year while Mondays have been the opposite. Another strong day tomorrow might add risk to Monday but I’m much more concerned about the weekly chart these days which is not always the case. Intraweek action has become noise.
Gold looks good and silver looks better which is a good sign. Likewise, the junior miners look better than the seniors.
Even COPX looks good.
However, the monthly chart shows plenty of risk, unlike the monthly charts in the gold space, relatively speaking.
I wonder if all those irrational USD fans see this loonie chart as bearish:
nothing irrational about not being a fan of loonie vs USD for more than the past year. Expecially as it has had the best possible fundamentals going for it with commodity and oil run.
Just maybe this will be the pop up that succeeds and your persistence will pay off.
I got my answer. You can’t read a chart.
Not that I bother with currency trades, but looks pretty clear to me and my seeing eye dog which I would have sold and bought going back a year.
Those Canadian snowbirds I met kept talking about the financial pain they felt converting their loonies while in Florida this past year.
Maybe next year they will all be happy campers.
Of course it’s lost on you that the chart I put up is a weekly one which shows that the loonie went straight up 22% to a new multi year high versus the dollar following the 2020 crash low and has now pulled back 8%. The chart is without any question bullish yet you’re preoccupied with the pullback and even put up your very own unrelated chart to make an argument that has nothing to do with my original comment. You simply don’t know what you’re looking at.
Don’t worry, you’ll get to celebrate the dollar’s next countertrend move against the loonie sometime next year.
don’t see anything irrational of not being fan on the loonie vs USD for past year. And it has had a great commodity and oil rally going for it
This may just be the pop up that’s finally the real thing.
previous post on this disappeared
well that’s true matt, maybe next year will be better for the snowbird loonie holders.
just hang in there and you’ll be right on all things as history eventually proves itself.
Yes, it’s true that you can’t read a chart. Good luck!
We have at least a short term top for gold versus silver and probably a longer term one as well.
Thanks for those updates. Appreciate your efforts. Go Fridays.
We have more potential upside here than the bears understand and another strong day tomorrow would help our odds.
Commodities look like they just topped versus silver which would be one more bullish development.
posts disappear after being up.
same issue as before for scrutiny??
You probably used the “edit” feature or had more than one link.
Joynsyl – I just released your posts from moderation when I saw your comment, and the yes, it was the same issue as we’ve discussed several times now —- you included 2 links within the post. That automatically sends it to moderation, as the moderation bot is trying to filter out spam with too many links in the same post.
It looks like you submitted it twice as well, and I released both of them just in case they had different links or info included.
Again, if you have an issue with a post you can always email me at firstname.lastname@example.org, as it most likely is something a user has done that triggered it to go to moderation.
Thanks for the feedback Ex. Forgot about the process with links.
I opened up, but it is neutralized now. All 5 days this week have been alternating. Will see if this thing can make a better showing at end of day. I am going to do a little more shifting. Calibre will be first this morning. Emerita appears to be sitting fat but I am still large there. Osisko Metals had a pop at close and that is one where I just need to round out share count. I like things in 5000sh increments as I have a tendency to trade anything that isn’t a round #. Anyway….zzzzzzzz
The weekly candles for some of my silver miners so far are looking like more weakness is coming in the weeks ahead. While SIL looks fine, higher beta plays like AG and EXK are not looking great at the moment. They have both underperformed SIL, this week, which is not a very positive sign for the sector IMO.
That being said, weekly AG:SIL is at least oversold in terms of stochastics and MACD.
GCC continues to hang in there. I am expecting a very bullish consolidation for GCC until sometime early next year. I do expect the weekly MACD to reach zero before the next leg up can begin. So one of these weeks, I expect a fairly large drop in GCC which should really set the MACD downward. But I do expect price to recover fairly quickly, but not enough to halt the weekly MACD’s downward trajectory. So basically, I expect GCC to work off overbought momentum indicators by going sideways in a fairly narrow range–the most bullish type of consolidation there is.
Silver:nasdaq has arguably had a price breakout of a two month pennant on the daily chart, despite today’s action so far. The daily MACD at least suggests there is further upside. The weekly MACD is still constructive as well. FWIW.
I agree. Here’s a weekly version flipped the other way, QQQ:SLV…
Back into Calibre. Where is the Company Picnic this Year. Any good bands coming?
QQQ and the rest of the stock market are facing ugly weekly closes that could in some crash-like action early next week. This makes 7 straight weeks lower, and all-time record for SPY and a first since 2011 for QQQ. You’d have to go back to 2008 to find 8 straight and a break of the 200 week MA. Luckily for stock bulls, any breakdown/breakout now would likely not stick under the circumstances so it could (should) be bought aggressively. Or, even better, buy more silver stocks on such a QQQ plunge (opinion not advice).
Well, QQQ managed to close the week above the 150 week MA but still at its most weekly oversold RSI reading since 2008. Between that, the close below the weekly Bollinger Bands and the 7 straight weeks lower, maybe next week will bring the beginning of a significant relief rally.
Back-to-back weekly closes below the weekly Bollinger Bands are rare for QQQ. It happened in 2011 but that setup was more like January this year. You’d have to go back to 2008 to find an example with a setup that is more similar to today.
Gold now has back-to-back closes above its 500 day and 2 year MAs…
500 day and 2 year. Not many following those. … but I would say the longer the better. Thanks for that chart.
It’s interesting how well the 500 dMA tracked the bottom of that fork over the last year.
Overall, it was a good week that delivered the action we needed when we needed it.
Brixton is 28% off its low on good volume. It hit the same low last September/October before rising 92% by early November.
I didn’t get the strong day that I wanted but everything still managed to look pretty good for next week.
There were three large (HUI) declines since the 2020 top. The first lasted 30 weeks and averaged roughly a 1% decline per week. The second lasted 19 weeks and average about a 1.5% decline per week while the third lasted just four weeks (if last week was the low) but had an average weekly decline of over 7%. The declines were 33%+, 31%+ and 29%+ but the correction low was 40% off the high. The action illustrates how markets scare out the majority of bulls and then wear out the rest.
I obviously think last week was the low and it is a good sign that the miners and silver bottomed the week before gold did.
Good news….thanks for your great work.
FWIW: I bought some Phenom Resources, PHNMF, on Mon and Tues after their presentation at MIF and my two batches up 21%. Just thought I would throw it out for info. Might be some interest somewhere.