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Dave Erfle – Takeaways From The Short-Covering Rally We’ve Seen In Markets

Dave Erfle, Founder of the Junior Miner Junky, joins us to review his technical and macro outlook on the short-covering rally that we’ve seen in the markets since Jerome Powell’s comments at the press conference after the FOMC meeting press conference and the weakening economic picture with the Q2 GDP coming in negative for the second quarter in a row.  The mining stocks have accelerated their move up that began 3 weeks ago, as did most other markets, and this was further underpinned by the US dollar rolling over from its highs and with interest rates pulling back down some.  There is still some trepidation and selling in the mining stocks though, and Dave pointed to the inflationary forces that hit the largest gold producer and bellwether stock, Newmont Mining, after a very rough quarterly operations report.

 

Next, we review that key support in gold around $1675 held for the 4th time in a row when tested a few weeks back, and importantly gold closed the month of July above $1780, which is a key technical level. Dave would like to see gold head up and close on a weekly basis above $1850 and $1900, and to see Silver close above $22 to signal a more intermediate bottom has been put in.  We wrap up with having Dave share some of the fundamental data he’ll be watching for as things unfold, and how he is managing his portfolio in this present environment.

 

 

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Discussion
17 Comments
    Aug 02, 2022 02:29 PM

    Tonight starting as a commodity walk back. They appear to be trying to pump the general markets and pretend “jawboning” will control despite inflation and debt. Too bad there are no leaders with character. Only thieves. Maybe in the morning the sun will come up.

    Reply
      Aug 03, 2022 03:01 AM

      Lake, I looked at the sky this morning and all I could see was a dark cloud enveloping the horizon. DT😎

      Reply
      Aug 03, 2022 03:16 PM

      No leaders with character…just criminals, of course…the system is designed and run for them and their cronies…and dang, do they say the most bizarre things…and no one bats an eye…just another day in the Empire…

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oihV9yrZRHg&t=408s

      Reply
    Aug 03, 2022 03:32 AM

    ok…i was ready to bail on the reversal in /GC today, but after listening…I will give it all a bit more time….tough bottom?…glta

    Reply
    Aug 03, 2022 03:37 AM

    PM miners still boring while other stocks get attention.
    I came around a company that seem tho have developed a PCR test (yeah I know, Mullins and all that) for MonkeyPox. Bought it yesterday with a nice profit. PreMarket is 5,50-ish. It got halted 38 times yesterday a la AMC/Dwac/PHUN. Let’s see how it goes.
    Any profits will go in to Abra.

    Reply
    Aug 03, 2022 03:27 AM

    Recession? Imminent? Already there? The single component to watch is housing. This is the best 10 min. view you can watch today: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z6JBX8Y8XQM

    Reply
    Aug 03, 2022 03:31 AM

    stopped out at breakeven…sucks…

    Reply
    Aug 03, 2022 03:49 AM

    Gold, miners in a 2 year consolidation while inflation roars, obviously the big bullion banks are not ready to let metals breakout.
    Big money and power want to have stocks run up ahead of elections to help Biden and Dems and to let smart money get out of positions and let retail investors hold the bag
    After November stocks crash and drag gold and miners to new lows, everything crashes before the big money QE of all times to help what will be a severe recession. Metals again fail to produce and protect your wrath unless you time it right.
    Your suppose to hold up to 20 percent of your worth to protect your wealth so what you doing with the other 80 percent, unless your day trader you better be in cash and load up truck when we retest the march 2020 lows again for everything.
    This is a global debt crisis and supply chain inflation caused by global lockdowns not going to be and easy fix this time around with the USA over $30 T in debt and heading fast to $40 T over next few years, also and energy crisis coming, possible major conflict in Tawain along with Ukraine and haven’t even mention when Iran gets the bomb. Those that have cash and deploy it at next bottom will survive but those that buy and hold junior minors will not see them produce those 10X that all were looking for last couple years only those in early and caught the ride from 2015 to August 2020 highs and smart enough to phase out before the last 2 year downtrend.
    Don’t know when the big crash will bottom maybe first half 2023 and then recovery will start but will take years.
    Just my thoughts. I’m just average working class individual that was hoping buying gold over last fiver years will pay off, mostly bought physical and store it, bought some junior stocks but what went up 2015 to August 2020 I’m ahead just little mostly held too long and gave back big chunk. I’m holding my core miners but have gotten out over last few bounces on many when break even and like Doc holding mostly cash. If wrong I have my physical and enough core stocks to do well but if right and can deploy cash will be life changing and could enjoy future but am prepared for something serious that this country is leading us into a global debt crisis ahead.

    Reply
    Aug 03, 2022 03:12 AM

    Same pattern and went negative. Going to do something else for awhile.

    Reply
    Aug 03, 2022 03:43 AM

    Today’s drop has done nothing to ruin the potential for a major low here and it is bullish that so little confidence remains after the action since the 25th of July.
    Gaps are getting filled on a low volume pullback after high volume runs to resistance and that’s not only “fine” it’s good. For example, GDXJ:
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&id=p55912956029&a=1205033362

    Reply
    Aug 03, 2022 03:06 PM

    The silver miners are bullishly having a harder time filling their 7/28 gaps but I’m guessing they will do so very soon if they are going to at all. SILJ’s gap is small and it already has a good bottom in place. It stalled precisely at a short term fork resistance yesterday…
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p94358384587&a=1149776311

    Reply
    Aug 03, 2022 03:07 PM

    SIL filled its gap on very low volume and finished the day over 1% off its low:
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SIL&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&id=p43279680171&a=1219698806

    Reply
    Aug 03, 2022 03:15 PM

    Junior miner funds like SILJ, GOEX and ASA have been bullishly stronger than their larger counterparts and have avoided filling their gaps so far as a result.
    GOEX:
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GOEX&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&id=p40713818423&a=1219899221

    Reply
    Aug 03, 2022 03:54 PM

    Hi guys, sorry to keep bothering you but the podcasts are still not available in the Google podcast app, best regards

    Reply

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