The current trend may be muted somewhat (this is Euro positive):

ECB Needs Another Big Rate Hike in September, Kazaks Says

A euro zone recession is now very likely but that alone will not bring down inflation and the European Central Bank should opt for a big rate hike next month, ECB policymaker Martins Kazaks said on Saturday.

The ECB raised rates by 50 basis points in July to zero and a similar move is being priced in for Sept 8 but some policymakers have started talking about an even bigger increase as the inflation outlook is deteriorating.

“Frontloading rate hikes is a reasonable policy choice,” Kazaks, Latvia’s central bank chief, told Reuters. “We should be open to discussing both 50 and 75 basis points as possible moves.

“From the current perspective, it should at least be 50,” Kazaks said in an interview on the sidelines of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium.

The problem is that at 8.9%, inflation is more than four times the ECB’s target and it is still likely to go higher before a slow retreat.

Underlying inflation, which filters out volatile food and energy prices, is also uncomfortably high, indicating that some of the inflation is now getting embedded in the economy via second round effects.

With rates at zero, the ECB is still supporting the economy and Kazaks said the bank should reach the neutral level, which neither brakes not stimulates the economy, in the first quarter of next year.

“If we see that we need to go beyond the neutral, I have no doubt we will,” he said. “If we don’t see significant decreases in core inflation, we may need to go beyond the neutral. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves.”

He added that the ECB should reduce its balance sheet at some point but, for now, it should predominantly deal with interest rates.

https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2022-08-27/ecb-needs-another-big-rate-hike-in-september-kazaks-says

This may moderate the USD trend (Euro positive):

ECB Needs Another Big Rate Hike in September, Kazaks Says
“A euro zone recession is now very likely but that alone will not bring down inflation and the European Central Bank should opt for a big rate hike next month, ECB policymaker Martins Kazaks said on Saturday. The ECB raised rates by 50 basis points in July to zero and a similar move is being priced in for Sept 8 but some policymakers have started talking about an even bigger increase as the inflation outlook is deteriorating. “Frontloading rate hikes is a reasonable policy choice,” Kazaks, Latvia’s central bank chief, told Reuters. “We should be open to discussing both 50 and 75 basis points as possible moves. “From … (full story)”
https://www.energyexch.com/news/1175452-ecb-needs-another-big-rate-hike-in-september

The easy money policies and expansion of the money supply is the primary source of inflation, which then shows up in prices from everything from commodities like oil, nat gas (that were secondarily affected by things like the Ukraine war), nickel, copper, zinc, iron, grains and soft commodities, which all had blow-off tops to all time highs from 1-2 year bull runs earlier this year.

Sure supply chain issues and energy issues further spike the punchbowl in prices rising, but they were not the source of the problem, just the scapegoats for politicians and bankster cronies. If that were true, that is is only energy, then why are movie tickets, sporting events, landscaping, senior care, healthcare, education tuition, hair cuts, and every facet of daily life also going up? Food is going up in the grocery stores even if it is local, or nationally domestic or there aren’t supply chain issues getting products into the country from ports in L.A.

That convenient narrative the mainstream media and politicians lead with falls apart quickly under any moderate scrutiny, that it is simply supply chain issues or war in Ukraine, when one considers that everything, across the board, is going up in price. Inflation is a tax on everything and hurts the poor and middle class the most, as it outpaces their earning ability, and is eroding the savings and purchasing power by 8.5%-9% recently.

Dollars may be strong in relation to other more troubled fiat currencies, but their purchasing power is going down as their supply has increased. It’s basic economics, and yet many fools actually believe that energy prices are high at the pump now due to Putin. They seem to miss the part where oil and nat gas were already surging higher for a year before the Ukraine war started, along with everything else. Art and collectibles had been and still are racing higher. Real estate had been surging higher until just recently, when mortgage rates rose with Fed funds rates. Cryptos were surging higher until the end of last year when the bubble popped. NFTs were surging higher until the end of last year following the same trend. No revenue tech nonsense and growth stock garbage had been surging higher until the middle to end of last year.

It was and has been an everything bubble, blown from excessive liquidity and terrible government fiscal spending monstrosities of bills, and dovish central bank monetary policies and new money creation out of ever increasing debt burdens. This is why any thinking person had to laugh when the Fed came out in Feb/March of 2021 and proclaimed inflation would just be “transitory,” which was hilarious coming from the mouths of the very people that created the inflation. Then they had the audacity to shift the blame to supply chain issues, that they also caused with terrible government lockdown policies that didn’t work and after firing people in so many industries that didn’t submit to forced government mandates. They cried about a lack of workers after just forcing many of their senior and best-trained works out whether it was airline pilots and crews, truckers, teachers, nurses, shipyard workers, you name it. All of that could have been avoided with a more sane approach and it was self inflicted. The persistently higher inflation readings showed up as symptoms of the monetary expansion through higher prices in everything, and were only exasperated by other terrible policies causing the supply chain issues.

If the central banks keep hiking rates they can affect the demand side of the equation by inflicting pain on the equity markets, to the housing market, to bonds, to cryptos and NFTs, (as they have done this year). More recently the slowdown in economic growth and rising US dollar has inflicted pain to the commodities since they started hiking in late March, but the expansion of money isn’t getting less, but rather it continues to grow. The most recent and ironic policy to feed inflation further is the increased wreckless spending on climate change and social justice warrior causes in the Inflation Reduction Act. It’s criminal, it hurts everyday people and businesses, and it was done in full knowledge of what the results would be.

Ex, Many that visit here appreciate the site and its connections, but these times tend to mute comments by those who otherwise would. Big Al started something good. Thanks to all of you!

Spoken like a true bug Shad.

What I said is correct, since gold hit about $2000 it has not kept up with increasing prices.
You can make a dif story starting at $20.67 , no one alive that bought then but what the heck.

How well has silver done compared to cost of living since hitting $50? 10 years ago?
Same thing.

Maybe gold hits 10k or any other number, I have no idea

We will see.

What next? I think we are at (right now) an interesting juncture that will either launch a 6 to 8 week move higher and set us up for a fantastic winter and beyond OR we get another scary but quick drop to new lows that will be the final lows.
The very short term usually doesn’t matter much to the bigger picture but I think it does now. Since the action remained weak right into the close on Friday, we should have a good shot at a (preferred) gap down tomorrow instead of a gap up. This would give impetus for a bullish reversal and the potential for a surprisingly strong day which would be an excellent development. If tomorrow is nothing but weak then I’d want to see significant strength into the close of the month on Wednesday and more importantly the close of the week. This is the last good chance the bears have in my opinion. If they blow it, it’s over for them for a long time.
The action of SILJ:GDX, my preferred risk-on/risk-off indicator for the sector, since the July low amounts to a shot across the bows of the bears. In other words, the bulls appear to be in charge now even if most of them don’t realize it.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ%3AGDX&p=D&yr=1&mn=11&dy=0&id=p52060018931&a=1238076600

Gold hasn’t had normal volume since the 2020 panic 2.5 years ago but I bet that will change after Labor Day. Contrary to popular belief, a bearish outlook for the stock market is the best thing for the gold sector and is critical for the performance of the gold/silver miners.

Hi Ex, early last week I bought some Algernon Pharmaceuticals SYL-AGN, they are into drug repurposing, they take approved drugs and find new uses for them. This stock has a very low float they just did a PP one week ago and they still have just under two million shares issued. This stock can move very fast, I find bio-tech stocks to be very volatile and I like that. They are up more than 30% since I purchased them . DT

You guys are amateurs in the waiting game. I started in 2001. Those were the days when we weren’t sure who was the enemy other than the paper price setting markets. We got fooled by the run up in the miners as we thought it was a legitimate reaction and the crash of 2008 was what should happen. What we under estimated was the transfer of the silver market control to JP Morgan as the miners went up through 2011.
Then we got to experience the full brunt of Central Banking, Member Banks, Foreign Banks and Regulator intervention. Once the system became a full-blown corrupt system, with all Checks and balances design to curb corruption, neutralized…the markets became nothing but Casinos owned and operated by private money interests, with politicians also bought and paid for for the sole purpose of deregulation to undermined the operational effectiveness of institutional authority and control. Thereby, negating democracy and protection of the people.
Under that scenario, the corrupt system can sustain itself until world-wide stability fails and “natural economic” law returns to be restructured in a workable fashion.
Unfortunately, the society that lives through the crisis suffered for the self interests of a few. We must guard in the near term to prevent any form of authoritarian government to take hold which is the product of economic destruction and corruption. Then the system may not be fixed in many if our lifetimes.

That comment might be based on a nightmare rather than reality … but so is the economy… hard to tell

An important low is also forming for silver miners vs commodities…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ%3A%24GTX&p=D&yr=2&mn=1&dy=0&id=p00132553835&a=1240446500

Right…I see that silver strength also…..I track that new silver miners etf called silx…it is the only one that is 2x….but the volumes are truelove pathetic and illiquid as hell if a punch out is required…Matthew do you have an opinion on that?…You probably like a few small cap silver miners more than the etf…i just do not like single issues especially in the metals arena…glta

OK Ex…..That is the answer I was prepared to hear based on what I have learned on site….
This may sound a bit too simplistic….However,I just think that the normal rhythm and cyclic nature of gold is at play here…Mr. Effle mentioned that 7 year cycle on your following interview…Those cycles do exert major pressure…I have seen this over and over…my 2…behold the healing power of the ‘LMAO”

You are right, but more so with the miners. It’s hard to say whether and at what point they begin to discount a massive rise in silver. You would expect a prolonged period of low silver prices–even if it doesn’t make a lower low and stays range bound–could potentially lead to disproportionately weak mining prices. So as obvious as it sounds, silver will always be the less risky play since it isn’t in danger of going bankrupt or dilution.

I do believe that any buy of silver at or below the 400 WMA will pay off several fold within 3 years. But yes, you will likely have to endure crazy short term drops, maybe something as crazy as the covid crash, and some more frustating consolidative action.

But the thing is, you will never ever get the timing 100% correct. And this is not and will never be a classic trending bull market like we saw between 2000 and 2012, if that hasn’t already been made clear. So there are no clear moving average or trendline buy points.

No, this is going to be crap consolidative action followed by an explosion in price that will likely end within 2 years, just like wheat into its price spike in 2008, IMO. All you can do is accumulate during this crap consolidative action and sell when you are in the money.

A really conservative approach, if possible, would be to wait to buy silver when its 200 WMA positively crosses above its 600 WMAs. But just be prepared for extremely volatile and whipsaw action around that event. It’s quite possible if not likely silver will spike to a crazy level just weeks before that cross and then perhaps drop all the way back down to backtest the 600 WMA after the cross.

An extremely conservative prediction would be that silver won’t get a durable break out above $28 until sometime in early to mid 2024.

I missed a lot of the big move it had because I sold early but have been buying SCZ today. I don’t have much belief in the pm market right now but this is an exception. I have also been buying Dennison today.

When the silver market starts to move watch out for Santacruz, it will be spectacular, IMHO! DT

Santacruz Earnings looked pretty good to me. I am back in. It seems all news hit, whether good or not. That is typical when miners are hit. Fundamentals seem to matter little. I like Denison also, but I have to find a tradeoff, but haven’t yet.