Weekend Show – Bear Market Action, Trading Strategies For Markets, Commodities and Gold
Welcome to another KE Report Weekend Show!
It was a tough end of the week as Jerome Powell, speaking at Jackson Hole, reiterated the Fed’s intention to continue raising rates in an effort to fight inflation. This send everything lower except for the USD which closed the week at a multi-year high.
On this Weekend’s Show we jump from sector to sector looking for defined trends and trades. We also spend the second half of the show focused on gold and silver.
If your podcasts are still not updating on a daily basis please try to search again for the podcast. Search “The KE Report”. This should sort out the issue.
As always please keep in touch with Shad and I through email – Shad@kereprt.com and Fleck@kereport.com. We love hearing what you think of the show as well as any companies, sectors or possible guests you think would be a good fit for the show.
- Segment 1 and 2 – Dana Lyons, Fund Manager joins us to share his outlook for US markets, tech stocks, bonds, the US Dollar, gold, oil and Bitcoin. Dana has been very accurate with his calls over the past few years which is why we jump around so much. Click here to follow Dana at the Lyons Share website.
- Segment 3 and 4 – Jeff Christian, Managing Partner at The CPM Group wraps up the show with a focus on his multi-year price projection for gold. We discuss the actual price level Jeff thinks gold will move to and the relationship between gold and the markets. Click here to learn more about the CPM Group
Exclusive Company Interviews This Week
- District Metals – Recapping Drill Results From The Tomtebo Property Yielding 25.5 Meters At 8.2% ZnEq
- Benchmark Metals – A Dive Into The Maiden PEA At The Lawyers Gold-Silver Project In The Golden Horseshoe Of BC
- Cartier Resources – A Dive Into The 25,000 Meter Drill Program On The Now Combined Chimo Mine Property
- Awale Resources – Exploration News From Odienné Gold-Copper Joint Venture, New Target Generation
Dollar Index : RELENTLESS : Bullish 38.2% Pin Bar : (Now to 110.25 ?)
Using different methods, Rick Ackerman (110.27), Dana Lyons, and yours truly have targeted the same level. Different time frames and the quantitative approach. Interesting!
The current trend may be muted somewhat (this is Euro positive):
ECB Needs Another Big Rate Hike in September, Kazaks Says
A euro zone recession is now very likely but that alone will not bring down inflation and the European Central Bank should opt for a big rate hike next month, ECB policymaker Martins Kazaks said on Saturday.
The ECB raised rates by 50 basis points in July to zero and a similar move is being priced in for Sept 8 but some policymakers have started talking about an even bigger increase as the inflation outlook is deteriorating.
“Frontloading rate hikes is a reasonable policy choice,” Kazaks, Latvia’s central bank chief, told Reuters. “We should be open to discussing both 50 and 75 basis points as possible moves.
“From the current perspective, it should at least be 50,” Kazaks said in an interview on the sidelines of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium.
The problem is that at 8.9%, inflation is more than four times the ECB’s target and it is still likely to go higher before a slow retreat.
Underlying inflation, which filters out volatile food and energy prices, is also uncomfortably high, indicating that some of the inflation is now getting embedded in the economy via second round effects.
With rates at zero, the ECB is still supporting the economy and Kazaks said the bank should reach the neutral level, which neither brakes not stimulates the economy, in the first quarter of next year.
“If we see that we need to go beyond the neutral, I have no doubt we will,” he said. “If we don’t see significant decreases in core inflation, we may need to go beyond the neutral. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves.”
He added that the ECB should reduce its balance sheet at some point but, for now, it should predominantly deal with interest rates.
This may moderate the USD trend (Euro positive):
ECB Needs Another Big Rate Hike in September, Kazaks Says
“A euro zone recession is now very likely but that alone will not bring down inflation and the European Central Bank should opt for a big rate hike next month, ECB policymaker Martins Kazaks said on Saturday. The ECB raised rates by 50 basis points in July to zero and a similar move is being priced in for Sept 8 but some policymakers have started talking about an even bigger increase as the inflation outlook is deteriorating. “Frontloading rate hikes is a reasonable policy choice,” Kazaks, Latvia’s central bank chief, told Reuters. “We should be open to discussing both 50 and 75 basis points as possible moves. “From … (full story)”
About 5 weeks ago The Bank Of Canada raised rates here by one full percentage point, that was on top of a 50 basis point increase around 3 months ago. Real Estate here is starting to groan and big condominium projects are being shelved because the cost of construction is financed through The banks and comes at a much higher premium. DT
DT, Powell’s terse statement did not sound like it came from a happy camper. The real shot-callers may now be getting serious.
Construction is by far the biggest industry here, when it goes, so does the economy! DT
The normal course for The Federal Reserve at this point in time is to raise rates, but these are not normal times. The inflation of credit has got The Reserve Authorities trapped. When you raise rates you hope that inflation can be subdued by making speculation unattractive and therefore reducing the volume of credit. But The Fed as it is known has printed so much money and flung it out into the system that The Debt becomes a bigger problem than speculation for inflation. You are forcing The Government, (federal, state, municipal) businesses, the private sector, (real estate), the public, (Heloc’s), and all debt holders to pay these new fancy rates.
Things have now come to such a point that the system will crash, but the only thing that The Reserve Authorities have left is the timing of The Big Crash. If they wait too long to wantonly crash the system it will happen without their authority.
The only question that remains is this going to be a Deflationary or Hyperinflationary event. I think it will be a Deflationary disaster like the 1930’s.
But is the current inflation just like all the other inflationary periods? Isn’t the primary driver today energy policy related. Seems like raising rates will solve the secondary drivers of inflation which is easy money….but will that solve the energy policies that are creating the other driver?
The easy money policies and expansion of the money supply is the primary source of inflation, which then shows up in prices from everything from commodities like oil, nat gas (that were secondarily affected by things like the Ukraine war), nickel, copper, zinc, iron, grains and soft commodities, which all had blow-off tops to all time highs from 1-2 year bull runs earlier this year.
Sure supply chain issues and energy issues further spike the punchbowl in prices rising, but they were not the source of the problem, just the scapegoats for politicians and bankster cronies. If that were true, that is is only energy, then why are movie tickets, sporting events, landscaping, senior care, healthcare, education tuition, hair cuts, and every facet of daily life also going up? Food is going up in the grocery stores even if it is local, or nationally domestic or there aren’t supply chain issues getting products into the country from ports in L.A.
That convenient narrative the mainstream media and politicians lead with falls apart quickly under any moderate scrutiny, that it is simply supply chain issues or war in Ukraine, when one considers that everything, across the board, is going up in price. Inflation is a tax on everything and hurts the poor and middle class the most, as it outpaces their earning ability, and is eroding the savings and purchasing power by 8.5%-9% recently.
Dollars may be strong in relation to other more troubled fiat currencies, but their purchasing power is going down as their supply has increased. It’s basic economics, and yet many fools actually believe that energy prices are high at the pump now due to Putin. They seem to miss the part where oil and nat gas were already surging higher for a year before the Ukraine war started, along with everything else. Art and collectibles had been and still are racing higher. Real estate had been surging higher until just recently, when mortgage rates rose with Fed funds rates. Cryptos were surging higher until the end of last year when the bubble popped. NFTs were surging higher until the end of last year following the same trend. No revenue tech nonsense and growth stock garbage had been surging higher until the middle to end of last year.
It was and has been an everything bubble, blown from excessive liquidity and terrible government fiscal spending monstrosities of bills, and dovish central bank monetary policies and new money creation out of ever increasing debt burdens. This is why any thinking person had to laugh when the Fed came out in Feb/March of 2021 and proclaimed inflation would just be “transitory,” which was hilarious coming from the mouths of the very people that created the inflation. Then they had the audacity to shift the blame to supply chain issues, that they also caused with terrible government lockdown policies that didn’t work and after firing people in so many industries that didn’t submit to forced government mandates. They cried about a lack of workers after just forcing many of their senior and best-trained works out whether it was airline pilots and crews, truckers, teachers, nurses, shipyard workers, you name it. All of that could have been avoided with a more sane approach and it was self inflicted. The persistently higher inflation readings showed up as symptoms of the monetary expansion through higher prices in everything, and were only exasperated by other terrible policies causing the supply chain issues.
If the central banks keep hiking rates they can affect the demand side of the equation by inflicting pain on the equity markets, to the housing market, to bonds, to cryptos and NFTs, (as they have done this year). More recently the slowdown in economic growth and rising US dollar has inflicted pain to the commodities since they started hiking in late March, but the expansion of money isn’t getting less, but rather it continues to grow. The most recent and ironic policy to feed inflation further is the increased wreckless spending on climate change and social justice warrior causes in the Inflation Reduction Act. It’s criminal, it hurts everyday people and businesses, and it was done in full knowledge of what the results would be.
Another epic show…I am not worthy…Many thanks to Cory and Shad….
Note: Thanks to this education right here, I actually understand inflation and many of it’s consequences…..
Much appreciated Larry. That is nice feedback to receive.
Ex, Many that visit here appreciate the site and its connections, but these times tend to mute comments by those who otherwise would. Big Al started something good. Thanks to all of you!
I know what you mean but if you are a realist you will realize that there is opportunity in any situation in life. That was what made Livermore so interesting, he made money when times were good and bad. DT
DT, the trading approach, once a choice, is now a near necessity.
Thanks BDC. Yes, this point in the cycle has many more disengaged with the resource sector, but things come in waves and cycles, and this too will pass. In a year or two when things are bustling and expanding, everyone will be a genius. I actually think times like these, when the sentiment is low and the mining sector is despised, separate the real contrarian thinkers and investors from the rest of the herd, when the prevailing uptrends become more obvious.
Very few investors are engaged at the ideal times for them to be most engaged – during correcting and basing periods. Once everything has really run higher in any sector or stock, when investors feel most talkative and encouraged, is precisely the time to be less engaged as most of the easy money has been made by that point.
At this point I don’t see gold as keeping up with price rises in the last year or so.
aug 2020 around $2000, 2021 around $1800 2022 today around $1750
Check the price of toilet paper,soup,the price of an oil change for vehicles, call a plumber
There are many daily products and services that have increased a great deal more than gold has.
So, stocking up on toilet paper for example was wise in comparison.
Should gold hit $2400 in 5 years will it have kept up with the rising cost of living?
Course, how much toilet paper can the average house store? 😉
SF, Yes, one aspect of Gold and its price is health of the economy. With disrupted supply chains, intended or not, a dearth of necessities causes increased cost. Gold is not needed to quell an empty stomach; however, it works wonders when used to benchmark the currency of a going concern.
You’re looking at things backwards. Gold has long been known as the “canary in the coal mine” because it is always the first to discount the Fed’s counterfeiting (inflation). You might be surprised to learn that gold’s blow off top vs commodities in early 2020 marked a 1,000 percent gain versus the CRB in just 15 years and a 4,100 percent gain in 50 years.
New highs for Gold vs CRB probably won’t be seen for decades but a large countertrend move is coming soon now that Gold:CRB has done an exact 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its entire 50 year move.
B – it is convenient to cherry pick the Aug 2020 high over $2000, but why not highlight the epic move from fall of 2018 or even the fall of 2019 to present and it paints the exact opposite picture you laid out.
Or how about noting that in just March of 2022 Gold was also above $2000. Your comment implies gold just went straight down from over $2000 to $1800 and then to $1750, when that is not what actually happened. We were just above $1800 a few weeks ago.
The picture is much more choppy and less orderly than the aforementioned comments insinuated.
Spoken like a true bug Shad.
What I said is correct, since gold hit about $2000 it has not kept up with increasing prices.
You can make a dif story starting at $20.67 , no one alive that bought then but what the heck.
How well has silver done compared to cost of living since hitting $50? 10 years ago?
Maybe gold hits 10k or any other number, I have no idea
We will see.
I’d disagree B. The point is gold was just above $2000 earlier this year in March, and it was above $1800 just a few weeks ago. That isn’t going back 50-60 years years… it was just earlier this year.
As Jeff Christian pointed out on the weekend show (and he is no gold bug), gold has been trending higher since 2019 on an average annual basis, and last year hit it’s all-time high on an average annual basis. That is a fact, and not subject to bias or hyperbole. Gold is also at or near all time highs in most other currencies. Does that sound like it is in a bear market or not keeping up to you?
I think ur missing the point Shad.
Gold maybe is up compared to itself at dif times in dif countries.
But toilet paper has about doubled in that time as have other products and many services have jumped more than the percentage gold increase.
Heck around here fuel and beef have far outpaced gold and silver.
Gold may catch up, I have no idea.
No, SFF, you’re missing the point. Gold leads all other commodities by such a gap that it only seems like it is lagging at times. The gold price has reflected increases in the quantity of fiat paper better than any other commodity with silver being the closest runner-up. For example, oil has gone up a massive 1,330% versus gold since bottoming in 2020 yet it still needs to TRIPLE from here just to match its 2005 high versus gold (and that’s if gold doesn’t go up at all). Despite the CRB roughly tripling vs gold over the last two years it is still commodities that need to catch-up to gold to reflect all the currency creation. In fact, the CRB is much further behind than oil and needs to rise 5-fold from here versus gold just to match its 2000-2001 highs.
Geez, u guys just dont get it?
Gold came down from $2000 (fewer currency units to obtain), food went up. (more currency units to obtain) it is not more complicated than that.
Gold not kept up with the cost of living for about the last 2 years.
If we see these famines so many people are predicting that could continue to be the case, food is far more precious than gold. To most people anyway.
No worries tho, Im sure gold will move higher
Geez yourself B. I just explained it to you and quite clearly. “Food” has never been the canary in the coal mine with respect to inflation and it isn’t now but it will blow away gold on net just like most commodities for many years to come and the reason is that most commodities need to rise massively just to catch up to gold. In other words, most commodities have lagged gold terribly and have NOT properly reflected inflation for DECADES and there are many reasons for that. The last 5, 10, 25 and 50 years show crystal clearly that gold has been THE store of value. Gold has discounted inevitable inflation so early that people like you can’t understand it.
If you measure the performance of gold and the CRB from each or their lows of late ’15/early ’16, both have doubled but gold did so almost 2 years before the CRB did. Now measure their performance from their 1999 lows to yesterday’s closes and you’ll see that gold is up almost 10 TIMES as much as the CRB (589% vs 65%).
The price has been scripted …it will continue to be scripted until they can’t.
I want to pick your brain.
Plunger has laid out his bullish thesis with Silver:Gold indicator,
“But we are now focused on the buy side trigger. When the monthly RSI closes below 38 while the monthly CCI simultaneously closes below -125 it triggers the initial buy signal.”
Here’s the chart. What are your thoughts.
Here’s the original article:
A good reminder for gold bulls (gold has much more upside versus the dollar):
Now that IS an interesting chart….Tanks for that view M…The question of course…What next….What my charts say is that a meaningful intermediate, traditionally called tradable low is due soon and very near….Wait for a nice divergence w a nice swing low on a 30 to 120 minute chart….If NO pullback of that breakout occurs early on….Well you are on to something……Also required, testing event of high volume or previous swing low bars and rejecting w buyers eg volume for a change, would be nice and vital…glta
What next? I think we are at (right now) an interesting juncture that will either launch a 6 to 8 week move higher and set us up for a fantastic winter and beyond OR we get another scary but quick drop to new lows that will be the final lows.
The very short term usually doesn’t matter much to the bigger picture but I think it does now. Since the action remained weak right into the close on Friday, we should have a good shot at a (preferred) gap down tomorrow instead of a gap up. This would give impetus for a bullish reversal and the potential for a surprisingly strong day which would be an excellent development. If tomorrow is nothing but weak then I’d want to see significant strength into the close of the month on Wednesday and more importantly the close of the week. This is the last good chance the bears have in my opinion. If they blow it, it’s over for them for a long time.
The action of SILJ:GDX, my preferred risk-on/risk-off indicator for the sector, since the July low amounts to a shot across the bows of the bears. In other words, the bulls appear to be in charge now even if most of them don’t realize it.
Gold hasn’t had normal volume since the 2020 panic 2.5 years ago but I bet that will change after Labor Day. Contrary to popular belief, a bearish outlook for the stock market is the best thing for the gold sector and is critical for the performance of the gold/silver miners.
A pullback in GLD:SPY tomorrow would present a good chance to buy gold and sell stocks.
anti-inflation freebee…last weekend of summer….”A Bronx Tale” plus beer…https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C_1oKRjBmOY
I want to pick your brain. What do you think of Silver:Gold ratio that plunger outlined in this article?
When the monthly RSI closes below 38 while the monthly CCI simultaneously closes below -125 it triggers the initial buy signal.
Here’s the chart,
Hey Ex, are you ready for the big economic roll-over, LOL! With John Rubino and Kerry Lutz! LOL! Again. DT
Hi DT. Yeah, I’m waiting for that big market correction that people have been gearing up for since 2009 at the tail end of the Great Financial Crisis. Still waiting for it…
13 years later and it still hasn’t arrived, although the macro backdrop here and now is finally much more conducive to a larger market rout and prolonged recession (inverted yield curve, PMI metrics under 50, 2 quarters of negative GDP growth, housing market rolling over and some reports say a housing recession, jobless claims up for 5 months in a row, and persistently high inflation).
If we are going to see a tipping point, then later in 2022 or Q1 of 2023 seems like the most likely culmination of forces (Europe and Asia in an energy and food crisis, central banks tightening monetary policy and hiking rates all over the planet, consumers maxed out, taxes being raised to levels that will further milk and hit consumers and businesses, and a lack of consumer confidence or confidence in elected officials and their policies).
I’m making up a batch of popcorn now to get ready for the big show! 😉
Hi Ex, early last week I bought some Algernon Pharmaceuticals SYL-AGN, they are into drug repurposing, they take approved drugs and find new uses for them. This stock has a very low float they just did a PP one week ago and they still have just under two million shares issued. This stock can move very fast, I find bio-tech stocks to be very volatile and I like that. They are up more than 30% since I purchased them . DT
You guys are amateurs in the waiting game. I started in 2001. Those were the days when we weren’t sure who was the enemy other than the paper price setting markets. We got fooled by the run up in the miners as we thought it was a legitimate reaction and the crash of 2008 was what should happen. What we under estimated was the transfer of the silver market control to JP Morgan as the miners went up through 2011.
Then we got to experience the full brunt of Central Banking, Member Banks, Foreign Banks and Regulator intervention. Once the system became a full-blown corrupt system, with all Checks and balances design to curb corruption, neutralized…the markets became nothing but Casinos owned and operated by private money interests, with politicians also bought and paid for for the sole purpose of deregulation to undermined the operational effectiveness of institutional authority and control. Thereby, negating democracy and protection of the people.
Under that scenario, the corrupt system can sustain itself until world-wide stability fails and “natural economic” law returns to be restructured in a workable fashion.
Unfortunately, the society that lives through the crisis suffered for the self interests of a few. We must guard in the near term to prevent any form of authoritarian government to take hold which is the product of economic destruction and corruption. Then the system may not be fixed in many if our lifetimes.
Hi Lakedweller2. My personal investing journey actually began in 1999 where I was still receiving the actual stock certificates and taking them in person to trade at the broker’s office. What a different world we live in today with online trading platforms that buy/sell at the touch of a button.
At that time during the final years of the dot-com bubble, I was mostly into the US general equities, and had no real interest in the narrative of the big collapse or gold/silver/sound money, and simply believed over time stocks and real estate would always trend higher and higher (just like most people still believe). Even after the dot-com bubble blew up in late 2000 into early 2001, it didn’t radically change my outlook.
I did remember in hindsight several years later that people kept trying to blame the market weakness on 9/11 in 2001. I repeatedly had conversations pointing out that actually things had crashed in the overzealous jubilation of the Tech Boom long before Sept 11th, and that was just a convenient scapegoat (as most crises become – like the Pandemic and Ukraine war being blamed for inflation, instead of the reckless fiscal policies and insane amounts of new money creation… the real drivers of inflation).
Because the housing market went vertical from 2001 to 2007, most didn’t worry too much about the paper losses seen in their general equities accounts, because they believed housing prices could only go up, up, and away…. Obviously, what goes up also goes back down, and housing prices collapsed in most US markets a year later in 2008-2009 in the Great Financial Crisis.
At that time I was working in insurance, banking, and financial planning and seeing the unraveling of the system was my personal wake up call. As fortune would have it, this happened to coincide with a tough financial time in my life and selling my entire coin collection in 2008. I immediately regretted selling my silver coins when I reviewed a DVD on investing in gold and silver. The remarks by David Morgan got me to consider stacking silver in 2008-2009, which timed out well for the bull market in PMs that occurred from 2009-2011.
By the middle of 2011, it legitimately did seem like the financial system was in deep trouble and gold & silver’s prices were the tell. Of course, Ron Paul pointed this out to Ben Bernanke, embarrassing him in front of Congress. No coincidentally, shortly thereafter the margin requirements in gold and silver were raised substantially, squashing the speculation in the PMs, and marking the top in September of 2011. This also coincided with the Fukushima disaster in Japan which marked the top in uranium miners, and China was forced to reverse output quotas on rare earths, marking the top in that sector. 2011 shouldn’t have logically been the top for any of those sectors based on true supply/demand picture: precious metals, uranium, rare earths, etc… but it became a bearish winter for the resource stocks for the next 4-5 years. Narratives were spun that everything was fine, and the general stock markets ratcheted higher and higher, so it was good times again…
The challenges that manifested in the culmination of the 2008-2009 G.F.C. still have not really been solved. The rot under the surface has only festered over the last dozen years as US fiscal policies and Fed’s monetary policies only blew an even larger “Everything Bubble” to try and reliquify the markets and inflate their way out of deflation. It’s been amazing to watch, but some how, they did actually kick the can down the road much longer than most assumed was possible… and they are still doing that to this very day.
Keep in mind we just saw the ludicrous “Inflation Reduction Act” which proposes by spending $700 Billion to fight climate change that this will actually reduce inflation. How in the world they think that by creating more magical money to feed pet partisan projects that it will reduce inflation is mind-numbing, but they hoodwinked the American people once again.
Again, now that we have central banks trying to get escape velocity out of the zero interest policies or negative interest rates in some countries, hiking rates into a slowing global economic backdrop, energy and food crises that look like they’ll only get worse, instability in geopolitics, the advent of digital currencies / social credit scores / and trying to microchip the population in the name of public safety (but really to just control and monitor all people and transactions), then it appears we are much closer to the tipping point than we have been. I’m sure all the kings horses and all the kings men will try to put Humpty Dumpty back together again, but there is a breaking point coming.
Remember, the globalist elites have been planning The Great Reset for decades, and this is not some new idea from the World Economic Forum. It was called Agenda 21 originally (and look how much control they gained from 2020-2021 under the guise of a pandemic), then it was called Agenda 2030 (not many years into the future), and now it is simply called The Great Reset.
People talk about the great awakening happening (like the Canadian truckers convoy or the Netherlands farmers), which is somewhat encouraging, but it’s all a day late and a dollar short. Most of the policy damage has already been inflicted, as has the reckless spending, and most importantly the molding of people’s minds through fear, propaganda, and disinformation. Look how many people were deplatformed, silenced, lost their jobs, had their lives wrecked just over the last few years, for simple statements initially labeled as disinformation by the thought police, only to be seen as common facts today.
Honestly, it sure seems like the globalist cabals are making much more progress towards latching down global control using The Great Reset, then there are people awakening and rising up to stop it before it’s too late. I used to be much more optimistic that people were smarter than that, and that governments and their puppet masters would not be able to carry out their bold plans. What we have witnessed over the last few years with citizens giving up their individual liberties and freedom with no fight at all, due to fear and group-think, and then bullying their fellow citizens into submission is quite discouraging. It was astonishing to see just how easy and quickly it was to get neighbors turning on neighbors and families turning on family members, in a 1984 or Fahrenheit 451 type manner.
If the last 2 years is a sign of how quickly people willingly become lemmings running over the edge of cliff, then the WEF has already won.
Ex, another great rant, I fear you are right, the elites have us cornered and are going to feed us crickets while they eat steak. It sounds like something Marie Antoinette might have thought up before The French cabal took her off to the guillotine. ( Let them eat crickets!) The elites always think they know what is best for the peasants, and this time they may get their way! DT😏
Excellent summary. I would only add the systematic deregulation of all the statutory law adopted to counter the causes of the Great Depression. There were a whole series of Banking Acts, Securities Laws and other regulatory actions to promote fiduciary responsibilities that were undermined and removed opening the door to corrupt and formerly illegal financial activities. Throw on Citizens United which gave Corporate wealth an avenue to buy politicians and parties, just added to control of the various monetary systems of the World primarily through Central Banking and election laws.
ditto..+11…smartest guy in the room..lmao
LD2, the number one cause of the great depression was the centralization of money and credit with the Federal Reserve Act yet those farcical government regulations did nothing to address it much less stop it.
“We have, in this country, one of the most corrupt institutions the world has ever known. I refer to the Federal Reserve Board. This evil institution has impoverished the people of the United States and has practically bankrupted our government. It has done this through the corrupt practices of the moneyed vultures who control it.”
― Louis T. McFadden, Congressman, Chairman of the Banking and Currency Committee for more than 10 years
McFadden had a handle on every facet of the creation of the criminal Federal Reserve:
McFadden’s book in a different format:
Alisdaire (sp) Macleods recent discussions on King World News highlighted the Crash and current pending crash are credit issues which is consistent with what you are saying. Obviously with $700 trillion or more of derivatives that are off balance sheet, we may have a fractional banking issue of greater magnitude than the 1920s. The availability of credit will very likely be a critical near term issue.
Sure wish the cabal would just get the great reset over with. Taking them a hell of a lot of time.
Though ‘Centralization’ and ‘Corruption’ are completely different things, when corrupt people are allowed to continue unabated they will increase (centralize) their theft. The primary problem is not the system or centralization, it’s the crooks, the people who enable them, and those fearful of taking them on, often because they don’t have the power to do so.
BDC, I disagree. The centralization of power over our money is corruption all by itself because such power is illegitimate/immoral/unsound and violates our natural rights.
Crooks and much worse are a permanent fact of life in all professions and sectors (just look the medical system) but especially in politics so it would be flat out nuts to allow such centralization even if we ignore the fact that it is completely unnecessary in the first place.
Central banking is 100% criminal from top to bottom and always has been.
Matthew, by obfuscating their deeds, you assist the doers. Systems are inanimate. They are made good or evil by the real live people that control them. You appear to fear power, yet power is necessary to defeat the scum bedeviling good folk.
Matthew, systems are inanimate. Real live people make them good or evil. Target the doers.
Systems of force/theft/violence are intrinsically evil regardless of the doers. Central banking is such a system. It’s an exercise in cognitive dissonance to maintain that totalitarian/tyrannical systems aren’t intrinsically evil.
Counterfeiting is theft no matter how it’s done and is destructive to society way beyond the comprehension of 99% of the population. The Fed has increased the monetary base by about 100 fold over the last 50 years, 7 fold since September 2008 and doubled it between Q3 2019 and Q4 2021. Had the Fed done a lot less “printing” it would still be wrong.
Ex, My post disappeared twice. I will try to gather my thoughts again.
Hi CaliJoe. I just now saw your comment and released those posts for you.
What triggered it was that there were 2 links in both of the posts you submitted. If a post has 2 links embedded then it goes to moderation, so it is better to do 2 separate posts rather than combining them.
Thanks for sharing those with us here on the KER blog for consideration.
I asked this question to DOC initially but I’d love to hear from anyone. Plunger had this article not so long ago where he outlined a scenario a bottoming of PMs and miners. One thing that caught my eye was his Silver:Gold indicator,
“But we are now focused on the buy side trigger. When the monthly RSI closes below 38 while the monthly CCI simultaneously closes below -125 it triggers the initial buy signal.
The silver/gold ratio and its associated monthly RSI & CCI provides highly valuable guidance on whether to be in the market or to simply go fishing. When the weekly RSI approaches 80 it is time to start making your way to the exits and stay out. (Aug 2020) If you ever see it run to over 80 be sure to get out and probably cool your heels for 10 years. That’s extremely valuable sell side advice.”
Here’s the article
Has anyone studied this relationship? and the RSI and CCI that plunger is talking about?
Cali, Gort the robot was hired by The Ker crew, when he gets a message he can’t compute he has to wait for his Master Ex to re-release the information. Ex is under guard now, but when he can slip away he will give Gort the go ahead! DT😁
Finally an explanation that makes total sense…
Too right DT. Haha! 🙂
Gort is a very unforgiving robot, and had been running amuck when I was out of pocket yesterday on a date with my lady.
2 links in a post, editing a post with an embedded link, or using one’s incorrect screen name sets off ole’ Gort’s programming. At this point all posts have been released and Gort’s artificial intelligence is back to calculating how far the Fed will get in their rate hikes for the balance of 2022 and heading into Q1 of 2023.
‘Central Banks Under Fire’
Jesse Felder – The Felder Report (08/28/2022)
And down the price of PMs go.
GLUG, GLUG, GLUG
They’re drowning under a rising tide of interest rates and market selloffs.
There is NOTHING going for PMs right now, NOTHING!
Just wait until December rolls around and the tax loss sellers finally give up and dump their shares, you’ll be seeing some of these PM miners trading for cash or less. Just you wait and see, if you do you’ll be rewarded with a short term buying opp that will allow you to sell for a profit in late January/early February.
Until then, SELL, SELL, SELL!!!!!
Do it NOW!!!
Very interesting. Like what’s new. It is Sunday night. They smashed it earlier in the day. I think it would help if you write the CFTC so they can give a proper response.
Joe glad I went to mastly cash with last bear mkt pop in miners, looks like Powell is forecasting inflation is bad and he must they must fight it now regardless of killing off economy, he hope for soft landing but the big message U see is lot of PAIN ahead for gold miners and economy. USA is still in much better shape than rest of world and all will keep raising rates and somewhere down road there will be a huge debt crisis that I hope these politicians don’t create a world wide depression, maybe that’s why they need to create another war, Russia/Ukraine the star big one could be Taiwan/China dragging it a long drawn out battle and chess game ending in lot money being spent and therefore major debt crisis.
In meantime all will loose.
If this over-extended dollar rally can reverse hard…that will trigger the pent up gold response…imho….
it is doable…weekly macd is flattening and a small drop has it curl negative…
Mentioned this the other day and it’s looking very possible.
In regards to the monthly candle for gold I see it ending exactly how it is today in the red possibly a red spinning top “neutral” or a doji
Third quarter should be nice for us for a change
Nothing has changed and last nights reversal of strength is showing the fight between bulls and bears. I don’t see gold making a new monthly low in the handle.
I also will revise my end year net with wolf I believe regarding gold breaking into new highs by then. I’m not sure if that was the bet wolf but any trader or investor has the right to revise before it happens. So I’m with the camp that new highs won’t come till possibly late spring/summer however we are going to attack the all time highs in the next 3/4 months that I strongly believe.
Best of luck to all
Dollar down, so just another day of running the “General Markets down…hit everything algo”. Requires no thought and no justification that has any substance to it. Another Monday in a long series of Mondays. Particularly when they are all on vacation and have left the quants in charge.
Orchestrated algo attack … on a roll
The Clown Fest continues.
Despite the failures of Central Banking, I added to Kraken and Nevada Sunrise. Also ….
I sent .25 cents to the Jackson Hole Resort to cover the room costs for those Fed Governors that walked out without paying due to having more Margin Calls on their private investing accounts..
Sounds like ……….entitlement to me……………… lol………… FAKE FED WHORES…………
That comment might be based on a nightmare rather than reality … but so is the economy… hard to tell
That’s funny, just took profits on Nevada Sunrise. Perhaps too early but have traded it up from 04 cents US.
And…another nail in the banana boat:
First article about Goldman: showing how they do God’s work. The manure pile grows everyday ….
Years ago Drexel Burnham Lambert was similarly touted. Then the end!
WOW…these freakin institutions really want miners cheap…They are workin it hard before major market participants return en-mass after labor day….Now is not the time to hit sell ….just go into LMAO mode…it helps…Pure theater pure farce……
Remember folks like Shad and Mathew etc have layed out the fundamentals workin it for hours w their labors on site….the technicals will fall in soon…soon…lmao…try it…LMAO…glta
Good suggestion Larry, but I am going for comfort food …. although very inflated in cost.
We will see larry…………… LABOR DAY………… ok……… 🙂
Remember, you are on record…. lol……. I will not try to twist the story…. lol
That’s right Larry. LMAO 😉
Silver and the silver miners are where it’s at which is why my little “risk-on/risk-off” indicator for the sector looks so good. SILJ is currently still up 14.5% versus GDX since last month and screams that this pullback should be bought.
All my opinions of course. No one should do anything I say.
An important low is also forming for silver miners vs commodities…
Right…I see that silver strength also…..I track that new silver miners etf called silx…it is the only one that is 2x….but the volumes are truelove pathetic and illiquid as hell if a punch out is required…Matthew do you have an opinion on that?…You probably like a few small cap silver miners more than the etf…i just do not like single issues especially in the metals arena…glta
Wow, SILX makes SILJ look like GDX when it comes to volume. I would rather buy SILJ (and gold heavy Hecla) and a bunch of Impact Silver and Kootenay Silver for the extra leverage that I am confident they will provide. I can see why you would avoid individual names but I choose the names that I do for similar reasons, one being to avoid company-specific bad news that every trader would rather not be hit with. Perceived risk is often much greater than the actual risk with many of these debt-free juniors and the potential upside is much greater than anything SILJ can deliver SILJ is very good. For example, it went up 390% in 2016 while GDX went up 156% and GDXJ went up 211%. However, Impact Silver went up 1,063%. It’s like a long dated call option.
Dollar being pumped but I think they should have waited until it was green to hit the miners. Gives a better impression of their control of algos.
EX your expertise is required…..How do you interpret Powell’s Future of tightening bias…Patriotic?…I doubt…Why would the FED want to fight the inflation they have created?…now, so late in the process at stalling economic recession levels..?..following the plandemic crisis and economic turmoil..why?…..To crush the economy and create a crisis mentality for Globalists easing into world domination?……to buy all the worlds companies on the cheap from the market crash they engineer?..why do you think Ex…I am interested…
..specifically point #3….Powell does not care about our government embracing fiscal restraint?…or does he?…why?
only thing to do, is to buy another one of them gold sector dips with whatever remains of cash position
Hi Larry. No, I don’t think anything the Fed does is “patriot” and in fact all central banks are the opposite of patriotic and rob from everyday citizens through the creation of inflation, and interfere with true and fair markets throwing around their excessive liquidity propping up markets that should have crashed earlier (like the bond market) and permitting larger financial institutions to escape the pain they should have felt in the Great Financial Crisis relatively unscathed. It is sinister what they do, and sad that we are forced to consider each macroeconomic data point through the lens of “Well, what will the Fed do in light of this?”
They are not corrupt, but they are not stupid. They knew they were instrumental in creating the inflation, along with reckless government fiscal policies (which they also backstopped as new debt), and they knew inflation was going to go much higher. That is why they started messaging that they wanted to see more inflation and acted like it was going to be a real chore to get it to 2% inflation when it was already there for most people in their daily lives. Then when they started reducing their bond buying they messaged that inflation would only be “transitory” because they didn’t want all the bond investors to run for the exit doors before they had exited first.
Now they have the gimmick going that they are “fighting inflation” by hiking rates, when they are the most “behind the curve” they’ve ever been, and have no mathematical way of getting the Fed funds rate up to 8.5% or even 6%-7% without crashing the whole system. It is all a ruse, and it is more important to watch what they do, then to listen to what they say… as they are notorious for either flip-flopping or flat out lying.
OK Ex…..That is the answer I was prepared to hear based on what I have learned on site….
This may sound a bit too simplistic….However,I just think that the normal rhythm and cyclic nature of gold is at play here…Mr. Effle mentioned that 7 year cycle on your following interview…Those cycles do exert major pressure…I have seen this over and over…my 2…behold the healing power of the ‘LMAO”
Take a look at a weekly chart of wheat from 1995 to 2008 showing the 100, 200, 400 and 600 WMAs.
Now compare it to a weekly chart of silver from 2010 to present showing the 100, 200, 400 and 600 WMAs.
Silver is going to do the exact same thing wheat did, more or less. Silver is currently basically where wheat was in summer/fall of 2004. Wheat proceeded to form base between the 100 and 400 WMAs for a about a year and a half before it finally got moving.
I don’t think silver’s gyrations will line up exactly, but I am expecting a similar base forming period to get the MAs in line.
The bottom line is the above long term moving averages are converging and should result in an explosion in price within the next 2-3 years. I could care less what silver price does in the short run because I am convinced that the MA convergence is going to lead to a huge move. But if you are banking on an imminent and durable break out above $26, much less $28, anytime soon, I think you could end up being disappointed. I do think silver and silver miners are worth accumulating here, but you may have to endure even more pain over the next year before the set up is complete. Silver is much less risky than the miners, because silver doesn’t have to pay overhead between now and then.
except for the flip the coin pop ups or day trades, why bother continue the bag holding with your scenario of the next 2 – 3 years.
Besides, who knows but the great reset by the cabal may just get completed by then and it won’t matter as we will all be doomed LOL
You are right, but more so with the miners. It’s hard to say whether and at what point they begin to discount a massive rise in silver. You would expect a prolonged period of low silver prices–even if it doesn’t make a lower low and stays range bound–could potentially lead to disproportionately weak mining prices. So as obvious as it sounds, silver will always be the less risky play since it isn’t in danger of going bankrupt or dilution.
I do believe that any buy of silver at or below the 400 WMA will pay off several fold within 3 years. But yes, you will likely have to endure crazy short term drops, maybe something as crazy as the covid crash, and some more frustating consolidative action.
But the thing is, you will never ever get the timing 100% correct. And this is not and will never be a classic trending bull market like we saw between 2000 and 2012, if that hasn’t already been made clear. So there are no clear moving average or trendline buy points.
No, this is going to be crap consolidative action followed by an explosion in price that will likely end within 2 years, just like wheat into its price spike in 2008, IMO. All you can do is accumulate during this crap consolidative action and sell when you are in the money.
A really conservative approach, if possible, would be to wait to buy silver when its 200 WMA positively crosses above its 600 WMAs. But just be prepared for extremely volatile and whipsaw action around that event. It’s quite possible if not likely silver will spike to a crazy level just weeks before that cross and then perhaps drop all the way back down to backtest the 600 WMA after the cross.
An extremely conservative prediction would be that silver won’t get a durable break out above $28 until sometime in early to mid 2024.
I have said before…… until it breaks $32…… silver going no where quick……..
I said that more than three years ago……….
I already have enough stocks labeled “next year”. (Had them for years). Any fall within the label “this year”. 🙂
Ha…… good one…….. it is always next year…… Mining shaft comes to mind….. 🙂
Just curiosity. I am interested what people think may be some of the better buys in your portfolios or on a wish list. Some of mine are (I think… do your own research. Possibility they can get cheaper):
— Eloro @ $2.60
— I-80 @ $1.85
— Vizsla Silver @ $1.09
— Lion One @ .83
— Emerita @ .66
— Summa @ .48
— Impact @ .23
—Stillwater Critical @ .1717
—Brixton @ 1145
GR Silver @ .0954
Makes me want more, but no way to know when they stop going down as they now must be tied to something other than the dollar.
Lake, I have been buying Santacruz Silver the last few weeks, they came out today with great Q2 financials and the stock tanked. All I can think of is sell the news brought out stop losses being triggered. Check out this news release! This is a bad week for news as many traders are away from their desks. DT
I missed a lot of the big move it had because I sold early but have been buying SCZ today. I don’t have much belief in the pm market right now but this is an exception. I have also been buying Dennison today.
I personally have nicely weighted positions in both Santacruz Silver and Denison Mines. Make it rain!
At least I was not hurt by previously selling SCZ before earnings came out …this time. 🙂
When the silver market starts to move watch out for Santacruz, it will be spectacular, IMHO! DT
Santacruz Earnings looked pretty good to me. I am back in. It seems all news hit, whether good or not. That is typical when miners are hit. Fundamentals seem to matter little. I like Denison also, but I have to find a tradeoff, but haven’t yet.
Might be more buying opportunities if that gap means anything. We will see.
I saw the news headline but have yet to read it. Thanks guys for the Santacruz memtion. I will look at Denison also. I think it was around $1.50 the other day. Thanks.
Whoa. Both down some.
GDX finished at two fork supports as it made a new low with a subtle RSI bullish divergence but I’m more interested in the weekly close ahead of the holiday weekend…
Selling NEM today at 42 is probably like buying it in April at 85 — not a good idea.
Dollar Index : RELENTLESS : Bullish 38.2% Pin Bar : (Beyond 101.25?)