TG Watkins – Technical Outlook On General Equities, Precious Metals, And The Energy Sector
TG Watkins, Director of Stocks at Simpler Trading and Editor of the Profit Pilot website, joins us to review his technical outlook on the general equites as well as the energy sector. The recent 5 day bounce in equities looks to be more of a short-covering rally, but overall TG is more apt to short the markets and various general sectors again once things approach resistance levels. We discuss some of the pricing action in relation to key moving averages that have his attention.
Next we shift over the commodities sector taking a look at the recent undercut double-bottom patterns created in gold and silver, and covered how silver’s support down at $17-$18 goes back 15 years, and it was a natural place to see a rally up to fill the gap that was created on the charts.
We wrap up with getting the technical levels TG is watching in energy sector starting with oil via (USO), where he could see a bit more choppy volatility, but ultimately expects to see more weakness. If oil stays more rangebound to heading lower, then he doesn’t see how this will bode well for either (XOP) or (XLE), ETFs that represent the oil stocks. One area of note that we see a strong fundamental future in is the nuclear energy sector and related uranium stocks. Despite the longer-term macro, he doesn’t think the uranium stocks can remain being “honey badgers” and do their own thing, and expects prices to stay more rangebound in the near-term as a result. TG lays out some levels he is watching in US natural gas using (UNG), which has really been on a tear higher, and then reviews the more sideways and mixed technical set up than with oil.
Click here to visit the Profit Pilot website to follow along with TG’s trading strategies.
I am expecting an explosive move in the miners to start some time over the next 2 months. This should be of sufficient size and duration to get the 200 dma to flatten out and begin to turn upwards (IMO you will know that the miners have made a historic low when the 100 dma crosses back above the 200 dma). That being said, between now and the anticipated price spike, it’s possible silver price stays weak. I would not even be shocked by marginal new lows in silver between now and then.
I would buy silver miners, like PAAS, on weakness (like today), as the volatility will increase the odds that you will suffer a draw down if you buy on strength. I also have my eye on Brixton, which I believe could make a marginal new low in the next few weeks. It’s a very strong buy on weakness with the caveat that the weakness could continue for another month. I think October/November will be the month Brixton forms a historic pivot. When Brixton’s 14 day RSI hits oversold, I think the the time for an explosive turn will be nigh.
I agree Greenspanetc…..I think after this big intermediate correction we need a few more weeks anyways to get the upside in miners back into a big rally…glta
Hello Glen……..
thanks for the mention…. 🙂
We are in a coma toast world….. 🙂
oops………..some one opened the trap door……… Dow down 800 plus….
Hi Glenfidish. Thanks for the thoughts on the energy markets, and yes, TG was on point today regarding his take across the energy markets from oil, to nuclear, to renewables, to nat gas. Good stuff!
Hey Ex….you asked if anyone else was still in the uraniums a little while ago…I would have replied but by the time I read it that was days later and I’ve been reading and not commenting as I’m usually so far behind…..anyways I still have my long term uranium holding and have been looking to get back into more for a while but thought that gold and silver had more going for it short term …..during that time I’ve watched uranium slowly creep back up to low $50’s and still have my eyes on UEX and Kraken as the 2 I’d like to add to along with my fav the URC warrants. Looking like a more slow and steady increase this time rather than boom and bust like last time
Hi there Wolfster. Thank you for the response back on the question posed a while back of whether anyone was still in the Uranium stocks. A few others did write back publicly and privately that they were still positioned in uranium stocks.
>> I thought TG Watkins made some cogent points about the importance of Nuclear energy as part of the overall energy input mix in the interview above. He is spot on, and many countries (like Germany and Japan) that shot their mouths off about getting off nuclear are now bringing plants back online and extending them. California politicians had made a big stink a few years back about closing all their nuclear plants, and now facing runaway power issues, they’ve done a 180 and are looking to extend the plants useful life by many more years.
Many countries that attended the COP26 conference last year, conceded the only 24/7 carbon neutral power source that can provide consistent base lode power is Nuclear. There are also many countries that are in the process of building new nuclear power plants, with better technology and efficiencies than the old plants. Finally the lightbulbs are going off for many dimly lit bulbs regarding the importance of nuclear energy, and realizing that despite the narratives it is the safest form of energy production out of the larger sources, and kills the least number of people, and many of the greenies are having a change of heart and mind on the topic.
As for the U stocks, I’ve been swing trading them a lot lately, but just have 7 positions at present. They’ve been a real bright spot in the portfolio the last 2 years, and especially on that big run in 2021. I had trimmed my positions back from Sept-Nov last year, then bought them back from Dec-Jan, caught the nice pop from late Jan – Apr, trimmed them a little, added more back in June/July, and have seen them steadily increase the last 2 months. I’m sure I’ll keep swing-trading partial positions around the periphery of the core positions, but I’m happy holding the ones I’ve got for the medium to longer term cycle to unfold over the next 6-24 months.
As for UEX, they’ve already been acquired by UEC in late August, after they upped their bid over the counter bid that DNN had submitted. I own both UEC and DNN, so when there were 2 bids out, and then 3 offers out, I wasn’t sure if the bidding war for UEX would continue, but I didn’t really care because I owned both UEC and DNN. 😉
I’m in mostly the developers or producers/prior producers on standby, because the world is awash in Uranium deposits, and so the explorers are of less interest to me personally, but I’ve considered getting in 2-3 of them and have considered Kraken Energy that you mentioned as a newer entrant. I’ve also considered getting back in Purepoint, or Baselode, or ALX Resources, but haven’t pulled the trigger on any of those yet. Cheers!
Yeah. I meant UEC. I like the uranium plays that trade on US exchanges as they get nice volume when the runs start and have a tendency to lead the way I find.
Yep, now UEC containes UEX so it is a stronger combined entity than they were separately, and has a nice pipeline of projects for years to come.
Global Credit Crash maybe next to CRASH The Stock Market, say’s Rick Rule, who is not one to be an alarmist, he has said as much, after all that is what optimist’s always do, they hedge. If you are a realist like me I have been reporting on how dangerous the credit situation is Worldwide and especially in The US for a long time here! DT
Alisdair MacLeod of Goldmoney has been addressing the “Credit” issue very heavily in recent interviews. How can there be liquidity when there is massive debt, off balance sheet liabilities and massive derivatives, growing inflation, and irresponsible political leaders along with corruption.
Lately, I feel like there is a sort of hidden censorship creeping over the posting section of The Ker Report. This is not Gort’s fault but rather Klaatu is behind the curtain pulling the levers. I think what they are aiming for is a much more conservative site. It is hard to get a full picture of the investing arena if you travel down a narrow path. I hope this doesn’t start a firestorm but rather it should fit in with the narrative of being able to express your ideas, and thoughts. DT😉
The reason I am saying this is because , I just had another post that was accepted go missing. I believe it was because of the content, which I didn’t think was alarming. This seems to happen here on a much more regular basis these days. I am aware of the posting rules, by the way, in case anyone tries to refute this. DT
Hi DT. If you have a post not show up then you can always email me that it happened, instead of insinuating on the public blog that there is some kind of “hidden censorship” going on. I’ve not deleted any posts in many many months, and I don’t think Cory has been either. Big Al has removed a few from the political section that were particularly nasty, in looking at the trash bin on some days, but Cory & I don’t moderate that side of the site.
So far 100% of the time someone has come on here posting about some kind of censorship conspiracy or favoritism or whatever, because their posts weren’t there after submitting them, it was either held up in moderation and then eventually released when we were messaged about it, or they had simply not submitted their post correctly. As I’ve stated to a few others here, there is no conspiracy here.
What is interesting is that everyone has our emails, but instead of just messaging us to check on a post, people love to come on spinning accusations and wild narratives that are almost never true. Look, as long as someone is not slandering our guests or companies interviewed with blatantly false information, or lying about what people said, or making extremely ugly personal attacks, then we rarely remove any posts. There were only a handful removed all year long, and those posts were extreme and counter to function of welcoming forum of ideas.
I just released your post regarding the Global Credit Crash, and you’ll see it up above. I don’t know why it went to moderation, but if you had edited it any way, then one of the Gort triggers for the AI is that any post with a link that is edited goes to moderation.
Ex, I think you are a gentleman, I wasn’t trying to promote a conspiracy. Maybe in the future when a post with a link is edited and it gets deleted you could fix the problem so that a poster doesn’t have to send you an e-mail to get the post reissued. I think sometimes you take constructive criticism a little too seriously. However; it is what it is. That is how I see it, no offense intended, that is why I tried to use humor to deflect this misunderstanding. DT
Thanks DT. I was responding to these passages you wrote above, which I was not going to let sit and fester in people’s mind, as then the conspiracy wheels get spinning and untrue narratives spread. I don’t think any of this was constructive criticism DT, and it reads like some insinuation of censorship or us trying to only present a certain side.
DT – You wrote:
” I feel like there is a sort of hidden censorship creeping over the posting section of The Ker Report.
“I think what they are aiming for is a much more conservative site. It is hard to get a full picture of the investing arena if you travel down a narrow path. I hope this doesn’t start a firestorm but rather it should fit in with the narrative of being able to express your ideas, and thoughts.”
“The reason I am saying this is because , I just had another post that was accepted go missing. I believe it was because of the content, which I didn’t think was alarming. This seems to happen here on a much more regular basis these days.”
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I was simply clearing the air, because we get comments like this periodically from people that do something in their post to trigger it going to moderation (like editing a post with a link in it, submitting a post with 2 links in it, not using their correct username or email due to a spelling issue, etc…), and then they immediately assume the worst or that there is an agenda.
There isn’t an agenda, and almost every time it is the users fault for not submitting their posts correctly or editing one with a link (often used in trolling on many sites and why it is a trigger for the AI program). Trust me, we are way too busy to worry about every post someone submits here, and as long as people aren’t wrecking our place of business, then we rarely intervene.
Again, instead of making a big case about in on the public forum, where nobody else actually cares about the post except the person levying the charges against us as “removing their posts” when they don’t see there right away, then why not just email us privately and we’ll go check on it. Is that such a big ask?
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As for your other line here:
“Maybe in the future when a post with a link is edited and it gets deleted you could fix the problem so that a poster doesn’t have to send you an e-mail to get the post reissued. ”
Look DT, I try to check on the posts a few times a day when I log into the back office, but I’m not in there 24/7 and Cory is in there less than I am. People are posting on this site around the clock and sometimes we don’t read the site for 8-12 hours as we are busy with our lives, or sleeping, or doing the countless interviews and all the other business components to keep this place running.
If we see posts hung up, then we release them, but I’m not spending my entire day in there in the back office and have a life outside of this place, like we all do. So if you see a post not up that you submitted then email me. It’s that simple and will get prioritized when I check my email (which is more frequent than when I check the blog cue).
Ex, I didn’t want to set off a firestorm but sometimes you go way overboard on your assumptions and get way too personal. Nobody here is suggesting you don’t have a life, of course you do, and I make reference to your needs by stating that you are at the beach, and leave the guy alone! LOL! But I’m sure you will be fired up once again. Let’s just take a deep breath and practice Yoga! Life is just too short to be so serious. DT
Agree DT, but my response was outlining the facts, reality, and was not way too personal or a firestorm
The whole point is that a post that isn’t showing is not a big deal (except to the person that posted it) and doesn’t need to be something people are even posting about on the blog. If one doesn’t show just email me. It’s simple.
There doesn’t need to be speculation about censoring, or us managing the content, or “this is happening more often lately” or those kinds of charged comments, which ironically are personal. It’s an affront to our integrity, and comments like that set untrue expectations, and so I do take that seriously.
It is difficult to build a solid following and reputation and as we’ve seen out there in social media, people can lose in just one tweet. We don’t need regular posters coming on and accusing us of censoring their comments or trying to steer things in a more conservative manner, or implying that we aren’t open to many ideas and opinions. That would be untrue to cast us in that light, and again, that is making it personal.
Personally, I don’t take blog comments to be a high priority in what I do, as our focus is on producing quality content with our guest interviews and company interviews. I’m pretty sure Cory feels the same way. The interviews and podcasts are the focus of the site and the blog is just a value add for the community. We have hundreds of people that listen to many of individual podcasts, and 20,000 unique visitors each month. Very few of them are involved on the blogs, but some may read them from time to time, and it is not OK to suggest we are censoring topics or people. I think it is abundantly clear we leave up plenty of different opinions and unhinged comments on a weekly basis. 🙂
I pointed out I had a life when you said why don’t you just go and release them instead of a poster needing to email you, which implies I’m not doing my job. Again, that is making it personal, and so I simply replied back the truth… I have other things going on this site and in life more important that if a comment immediately posts, so if one goes to moderation, then just email me. To expect me to see them all real time so someone doesn’t have to email me, assumes I’m watching the comments all day, which is unrealistic. That’s all I’ll say on this, and it is not just directed at you, but for all to consider.
Lots of pontificating concerning open discussion without personal attacks etc etc by site management. Until such time as those outside the group think loop express their contrary views. Then the condemnation sets in as with Joe, Doc and others.
Contrary views are no problem. Doc’s dishonesty is very different as is your stupidity.
Jonsyl – I think you are missing the difference between a critique of one’s positions, and all out nasty attacks. Disagreeing is fine, especially if someone’s thesis doesn’t add up, or like Joe, if they don’t have a logical thesis given for their extreme advice to all other investors as they yell in all caps.
Pointing out an error is fine, and should be appreciated. Pointing out someone flip-flopping on their position or stance or outlook is fine. It can be done in a civil way, even if it makes that person a bit uncomfortable. The truth is sometimes painful, as are botched calls, botched forecasts, and botched investments.
When it turns to nasty inciteful attacks, then it is less helpful and is not a value add. If people come and take a big ole crap on the blog with cursing, religious or racial slurs, or outright lying, then we sometimes have to take out the garbage.
There isn’t anything wrong with holding people accountable if they said one thing, and then a few weeks or months later said just the opposite, and instead of acknowledging this, pretend they didn’t say it or lie about what they said. There is nothing wrong with refuting what someone claims if there is clear factual evidence to the contrary that they held a much different position and said so publicly. It is also fine to hold a dissenting opinion of a post here or to disagree respectfully with the guests on the interview, or even what a company says.
However, flat out lying or attacking people is not acceptable. Slandering a guest or a company and making blatantly untrue statements about them is not OK. What keeps the lights on here at the KER are sponsor companies and companies considering it, so if people come on and say completely untrue things about those companies or their management, that are blatantly false, then those are unacceptable to our site.
Hopefully that helps clear up your confusion on this topic.
So where does this post fit in your explanation for acceptable response Ex.
Critique or nasty
Matthew:
Contrary views are no problem. Doc’s dishonesty is very different as is your stupidity.
It’s your business if you want to be offended by facts.
It isn’t slanderous, or an extremely belligerent attack. People can have opinions, and people can not like one another. In this case they are based on prior comments he made where he unpacked his points as to why he felt that way, using logic and provided charts and quotes. I don’t have to agree with a post or share the same opinion with a post, and neither do you. It’s fine to disagree with someone else’s assessment of themselves or others. It starts straying from the topics of investing and usually gets too personal, but I’m not sure we can change human nature for people to find conflict with one another.
Personally, I’d prefer not to see the name calling towards one another, but once again, we didn’t remove these comments, just like we don’t remove most comments. You felt the need to repost it again, so now there is even more attention on it than if you had just left it alone. There are many responses you receive back that you wouldn’t have received if you’d just left things alone, something we’ve discussed about a half dozen times now.
Believe it or not, I have other things to do more important that break up every single disagreement here. I leave it up to you guys to figure it out and try and be civil in the disagreements or even dislike of one another. If it gets too ugly, then we can purge the comments, but seriously, can’t we just get back to discussing the markets.
Ask yourself if your next comment is really going to be a value-add?
I am not sure about Censorship on KE as I haven’t seen any. There are differing opinions but there would be something wrong if there weren’t.
DT: right after I read your post, this was on my Microsoft Screen: (statements from Sen Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, appearing on Mark Levin’s talk show)
“Sen Johnson is angered Democratic voters are allowed to go to church, college and be employed by these institutions and even the Federal Government, saying they have ‘infiltrated’ these essential areas of American life and many others” ….
Also: “On Sunday Johnson suggested to Levin that liberals, Democrats, and anyone on ‘the left’ as he put it, do not have an inherent right to participate in American life on an equal footing as Republicans”
I don’t see where Sen Johnson referred to a specific document or part of the Constitution as the basis for his thoughts nor whether he was acting in the capacity of a US Senator when making such statements.
Now there is some Censorship to be afraid of …
Lake:
Did you see that, my missing post on Rick Rule has reappeared. Klaatu has reconsidered! LOL! DT
Klaatu has spoken and all is well…
🙂 You guys are funny…
Plain XAU 240 minute chart…One more scary moment with a fast undercut of recent 9/1/22 trading cycle low….that seems very possible….
EX,,,,,,,,,,,THANKS for the COMMENT……….on the moderation…….
You should keep it, and post it for those who have not figured it out yet……JMO
Copy and paste…. will save you a lot of time rewriting the same thing to every
Tom, Dick and Harry…. 🙂
Thanks OOTB. Yeah, it is a topic that comes up every so often, that we are trying to remove people’s posts, or don’t like the opinions, or are censoring them. I’ve had to state the same thing over and over again, about why it isn’t us, but their error in posting to the site, so maybe I should just save this and repost it each time someone comes on crying afoul. 🙂
Again, with the very rare exception of a post that Cory or I actually do remove that has just gone way too far, is slanderous, lying, or too extreme of an attack, then we rarely remove anything. Those aren’t the ones that complain though when it gets removed, because they usually know they’ve gone way over the top. The complaints that we are doing something to their posts or censoring the site have all come from people that had their comment to go moderation for either a double link in the post, editing a post with a link, using the wrong username or wrong email due to a spelling issue, or because they simply did not submit it correctly in the first place.
Gold sites have a conspiratorial bent to begin with, so many people just jump to the most extreme narrative right out of the gates, instead of it simply being the post is held up in the moderation cue, and then politely emailing us. They want to make a big statement on the blog, in public for all to see, and then are surprised when we respond back defending our integrity and pointing out it was their error in posting, not a grand scheme to suppress their precious posts. Haha!
Oh well. Hopefully most people here know we appreciate all the different perspectives, points of view, and different links shared to news, charts, articles, or other interviews. It is supposed to be a forum of ideas focused on investing, and we believe by sharing insights we are all better informed and have a slight edge on these wild markets. Ever Upward!
Ex………….. thanks for the reply………….
and ditto……. some do need to be removed…….. some nut jobs are way out of line,
We have had our fair share of crazies and nut jobs over the years… Haha!
99% of the time we’ll even let them persist with the nuttiness, unless it just goes way too far and crosses a line of truth, slander, or extreme attacks. Eventually, those types usually lose interest and go onto some other sites to make those people’s lives a mess, and so most are just passing through…
I’m sure we’ll see plenty more unhinged comments in the years to come, and hopefully most of them will be a cause for a chuckle and not action. We are running a business here though, and sometimes we have to remove the cancer with a scalpel.
Wishing everyone prosperity, and asking everyone to try and at least be civil in disagreements or heated debates. It really is best when we are all trying to help other investors here, share good information, or at least share a laugh. 🙂
Ditto……….. Agree……thanks again for the reply…..
Have a great rest of the week……..
This pullback is for buying and changes nothing about the bullish developments lately.
60 min GLD:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=60&yr=0&mn=0&dy=18&id=t7391569686c&a=1249934695&r=1663090096456&cmd=print
It’s not a bad thing that SILJ vs SPY has now filled its huge weekly gap up nor is it bad that SILJ and GDXJ are showing more strength today than GDX or GLD. The latter have filled their gaps up from Friday while the former haven’t even reached them.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ%3ASPY&p=W&yr=4&mn=3&dy=0&id=p66034804206&a=1249929977
Like SILJ:SPY, SILJ:GDX also started the week with a big (5.5%) gap up which has now been filled:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ%3AGDX&p=W&yr=3&mn=11&dy=0&id=p82997111616&a=1215875558
Hey Ex. Any chance of getting the arb master Jayant’s opinion if there’s an opportunity in the recent Northern Superior/RoyalFox deal. Seems like there might be value in buying Royal.
Good suggestion Wolfster. Yes, Jayant is the arbitrage master, so we’ll ask him about that for our next call with him in a few weeks. I’ve not looked at the terms of the Northern Superior/Royal Fox deal personally, but there is usually a discount placed on the company being acquired, just in case the deal falls through; however, often the spread in the valuations can create and arbitrage opportunity for sure.
It’s clear as a blue sky…………………..what the Fed has done to date with interest rate cold shower for markets is insignificant……………….today the CPI says it all……………….still too much money in the system…………..need to kill more gdp !!!!!!
Dead cat bounce is over …………………more downside……………..earnings crunch has not even hit the markets yet, never mind employment downdraft that hasn’t started yet !
PM…………………more pain…………….USD more upside with Euro downtrend !
Just keeping things simple for myself !!
GLTA
I agree the equities are coma toast Jerry lol!!!
Thanks for the guest ex! I believe energy/ oil is headed much lower in the mid term/longer term before going much higher.
Also this!
Greenspansconcience
14 hours ago
I think this is the price spike that will initiate a 6-9 month consolidation. I anticipate that silver could get to $24-25 within a few weeks, which should take it just above its 600 day MA.
After that I think it will come back down and test the 200 dma and thereafter stay sandwiched between the 600 and 200 dmas until the 200 dma crosses back above the declining 400 dma. This will form a pennant or box consolidation. When price finally breaks out of this consolidation, I think sliver will move to $90 within 2 years.
Again I feel we are seeing the same things except I’m seeing opportunity short/midterm that will be explosive for the miners not sure of your seeing the same? I agree we will form a top which is the top that won’t break golds all time high this year. Next year as a few of us have stated we will finally get the bigger run!