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Craig Hemke – Gold Tests Key $1673 Support Level Today, But Won’t Result In A 5 Year Desolation

Shad Marquitz
September 15, 2022

Craig Hemke, Editor of TF Metals Report, joins us to review his technical outlook for gold, in the event of a corrective move, as it tests the key $1673 support today.  We again review some similarities in that chart from 2011-2013 compared to the chart from 2020-2022, but also point out some of the key differences in the macroeconomic backdrop between then and now.   If we do see a plunge, as sell-stops get triggered in the near-term, then while we may see a brief capitulation move lower in gold, Craig feels it will not result in a 5 year desolation. 

 

One constructive area we discuss is the recent outperformance of silver over gold, the bullish contrarian reading in the COT reports, and the general bounce we saw recently in copper despite the higher US dollar.  This could present a scenario where silver is signaling that it already bottomed and bounced, and that the drop in gold may be more short-lived to where it’s COT report is more similar to that of silver.

 

 

Click here to visit Craig’s site – TF Metals Report.

Discussion
27 Comments
    Sep 15, 2022 15:30 PM

    Credit Suisse downgrades its average gold price forecast to $1,725

    The bank is leaving its 2023 average price forecast unchanged at $1,650 an ounce. For 2024 the analysts see gold prices averaging the year around $1,600 an ounce, down from the initial estimate of $1,650. The long-term price forecast
    What happen to $2500 plus

    Reply
    Sep 15, 2022 15:53 PM

    One thing we can be sure about concerning Wall Street, Central Banking and Politicians is that for the most part they are White Collar criminals. One thing you can also be sure of about White Collar criminals that they never admit crimes, but continue the lie as it is about winning and not morality. The agenda is always you lose. Think about that when evaluating who controls markets. They have to fail and be removed before it stops.

    Reply
    Sep 15, 2022 15:11 PM

    The high for silver this week (so far) is $20.00 exactly the same as the 233 week MA. Despite being 3.6% off that high silver is still 11% above its low of two weeks ago. The same fork provided support at both the July and September lows…
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p55989403593&a=1199723462

    Reply
    Sep 15, 2022 15:42 PM
      Sep 16, 2022 16:25 AM

      That vaguely looks like a cup and handle of gigantic proportion. Maybe not so vaguely…☝️

      Reply
    Sep 15, 2022 15:58 PM

    Silver closed above its 55 day MA for the 4th time (today by one cent). The last 4 straight happened in April.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p29204931754&a=1251775979

    Reply
    Sep 16, 2022 16:40 AM

    (CXB – TSX) Calibre Mining Corp. – Panteon North Really Shaping Up; High-Grade Results

    Cormark Securities – September 8, 2022

    https://cdn-ceo-ca.s3.amazonaws.com/1hi8kia-Cormark%20-%20Panteon%20North%20Shaping%20Up%20with%20high%20grade%20results.pdf

    Reply
    Sep 16, 2022 16:50 AM

    Three-Part Approach to Advancing Gold Project Gets Results: Research Report

    Mike Niehuser – Streetwise Reports (9/15/22)

    “Lion One Metals Ltd. (LIO:TSX.V; LOMLF:OTCQX; LLO:ASX; LY1:FSE) recently made two discoveries at its Tuvatu alkaline gold project on Fiji, as a result of its three-pronged strategy to move its Tuvatu project to production by mid-2023 and “develop one of the highest-grade, multimillion ounce gold mines in the world,” reported ROTH Capital Partners analyst Mike Niehuser in a September 12, 2022 research note. The Canadian explorer continues to expand the existing resource, aggressively explore the Navilawa Caldera, and infill drill.”

    “Establishing a new resource target, potentially replicating Lion One’s experience at Tuvatu, would further demonstrate the potential of the Navilawa Caldera to major mining companies and investors,” Niehuser purported. “Altogether, these comprehensive initiatives may potentially produce a world-class, low-cost, and long-lived gold mine,” commented Niehuser.

    https://www.streetwisereports.com/article/2022/09/15/three-part-approach-to-advancing-gold-project-gets-results.html

    Reply
    Sep 16, 2022 16:53 AM

    Red Lake Miner Posts Record Monthly Gold Production

    Streetwise Reports – (9/12/22)

    “Red Lake, Ont. exploration and development company Pure Gold Mining Inc. (LRTNF:OTC; PGM:TSX.V), yesterday announced that during August 2022, it produced a new monthly record total of 4,595 ounces of gold at its PureGold Mine. The firm stated that it achieved this milestone by processing a record amount ore throughput and further benefited from improved grades.”

    “The company noted that during August 2022, it processed a record amount of ore throughput measuring 25,188 tonnes, equal to 813 tpd (tonnes per day), and enjoyed record gold production of 4,595 oz. Pure Gold Mining added that it is reaffirming its Q3/22 production guidance of 8.7-12.3 Koz Au (thousand ounces of gold).”

    https://www.streetwisereports.com/article/2022/09/12/red-lake-miner-posts-record-monthly-gold-production.html

    Reply
      Sep 16, 2022 16:15 AM

      I was going through my watchlist of “Ugly Duckling” companies that have really sold down to ridiculous levels, and which investors really are hating on. I was trying to think about which companies retail investors had soured on in a most extreme way and some companies that came to mind were Wallbridge Mining, Integra Resources, Novo Resources, Liberty Gold, Elevation Mining, Americas Gold & Silver, and Pure Gold Mining to name just a few.

      When I looked at how Pure Gold has simply imploded after first gold pour in December of 2020 to present, and just how far down the valuation of the company has been smashed, it really piqued my interest in getting back into the stock (which I have just done this week). With some of the old management team and directors being reshuffled, and with Mark O’Dea, a force of nature in the mining sector, coming in personally to man the helm as President and CEO, I now have much more confidence that he is going to get this ship turned around. Mark also placed some substantive insider buys, and that is also a good signal to the market.

      The latest operations report looks like a step in that direction on getting things moving in a better trajectory for the company. The forecast is a bit sunnier than the prior 2 years storm clouds, based on some of the changes in mining strategy, personnel, what area they are mining from now, and their projected guidance for the balance of the year and moving into next year. As a result, I believe this beaten down gold producer may surprise investors to the upside over the next few quarters.

      I got into a first tranche earlier in the week and then the stock jumped over 30% the following day, so I sold it for a quick scalp, but watched it pull back a little the last 2 days and just got back into again with a first tranche. If we see the gold sector pull back now that the yellow metal has broken that key $1673-$1675 support, and we get the final wash out that so many have been calling for, then I’ll likely average down with a 2nd and probably a 3rd tranche in (PGM).

      The other wildcard here, is that I still believe a larger producer, and most likely Anglogold Ashanti, could take Pure Gold over in the not-so-distant future, and that could be an immediate 30%-50% premium as an added kicker. I’d prefer to see PGM dig out of the hole they fell into first and gain some traction to the upside first, before any takeover, but if that plays out, then it would be an easy exit strategy as well. Just a few thoughts and perspectives on this Ugly Duckling, that is very unloved and even despised by many beleaguered longer term shareholders.

      Fortunately I pulled a large share of my profits right before first gold pour in Dec of 2020, but I have jumped back into this stock 2 other times over the last 2 years and got spanked on both trades and eventually exited the position last year for tax loss purposes, because I don’t like just sitting in sinking ships if there are clear market concerns about the company. Looking forward to this being “3 times a charm” on the plan to get a position reestablished (not counting the quick swing-trade for the 31% gain as that was just a 2 day trade). This time I’m looking towards beefing up this position, especially into any further market turbulence, and making this more of a medium term position-trade as the sentiment will eventually switch from famine to feast.

      Reply
        Sep 16, 2022 16:42 AM

        With one foot in the grave before open, I had to pull my foot back out to get my wallet out of my pocket. Once accomplished, I bought back into Pure Gold after reading a blog somewhere this morning and also added to my gungnir, Palladium One, Brixton and GR Silver. Then as I turned around, I slipped in the mud all around me and my foot went back in the grave. I will post something if I need help.

        PS: I already own Calibre and Lion One and I want more.

        Reply
          Sep 16, 2022 16:47 AM

          Hi Lakedweller2, I’m hoping you get that foot out of the grave as we have not even seen the real bull market fireworks even kick off yet in the precious metals, and you’ve got quite a list of company positions growing in your portfolio. Once we see the sentiment shift and a flip to the other direction, it would seem you’d do quite well in a number of those companies.

          Yeah, Pure Gold has been one I’ve traded and followed for a number of years, and just recently got established in it again this week. I discuss that quick swing trade I did with it in the back half of the interview with Erik Wetterling that just went up, along with a lot of the other beaten down stocks that are being shunned by investors that look like they are at compelling points of entry. Ever Upward!

          Reply
    Sep 16, 2022 16:10 AM

    3 Drive play set up on day/GC chart…..https://tos.mx/uuEWqch

    Reply
    Sep 16, 2022 16:17 AM

    Hi Matthew, I would like your opinion on this chart by Bob Hoye, do you think that Silver is finally positioned for a multi week rally? Thanks DT
    http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hoye/hoye091622.pdf

    Reply
      Sep 16, 2022 16:38 AM

      Hi DT, yes I do agree with Hoye. In light of gold’s action this week silver looks even better. SLV was too strong to allow this week’s big gap up to get completely filled which is impressive under the circumstances. It is currently up 3.55% for the week, up 6% versus GLD. Gold has also been impressively resilient considering its break to a new low but Monday will be the real test since it follows this negative weekly close.
      https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p36810125598&a=1230908007

      Reply
    Sep 16, 2022 16:28 AM

    Just another FREAKY FRIDAY………………

    Thank Ex….. for putting out the “Ugly Duckling” report……….
    I was reading , and I kind of thought for a moment I was reading 321 gold Bobby M reporting… 🙂
    You the Man… Have a great one…….

    Reply
      Sep 16, 2022 16:48 AM

      Much appreciated OOTB.

      Yes, ya gotta love those ugly ducklings at their current valuations. I got into a few more of them on the interview with the Hedgeless Horseman that just went up, but ultimately I’m hoping over time that investors realize that a few of them are beautiful swans. Haha! 😉

      Reply
    Sep 16, 2022 16:45 AM

    /Gc responses are tightening up…half percent dollar pull-back triggered 2 plus percent in miners…glta

    Reply
    Sep 16, 2022 16:03 AM

    The more I look at silver’s monthly chart and the 20 and 50 month MAs, the more depressing it gets.

    Specifically, when you get the 20 month MA sloping downwards as strongly as it is currently is and this far away from a gently rising 50 month MA, it is quite often the sign of a long term bear market.

    And even if it is not a long term bear market, silver is either likely to go much lower in the next several months or it will be trending sideways to down for at least the next 6 months until the 20 month MA crosses below the 50 month MA.

    The 20 and 50 month MAs look nothing like back in 2008-2009 (in particular the steep incline of the 50 month MA back then) and so the idea that the 20 month MA will flatten out instead of continuing to decline is simply not credible.

    Any way you slice it, April to July of this year broke silver’s chart. At best its in for a long slog of volatile rangebound trade for another year, with the strong possibility that it is headed much lower in the months ahead.

    At worst, it is in a new bear market that could last years.

    Reply
      Sep 16, 2022 16:51 AM

      Thanks for sharing your technical outlook Greenspanconscience. As someone with a healthy weighting to the Silver stocks in my trading account, that is a depressing forecast indeed, but appreciate you sharing the rationale you have regarding the price action in relation to those key moving averages you discussed.

      Reply

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