Weekend Show – Peter Boockvar and Doc – A Blend Of Macro and Technical Outlooks For Markets and Metals

October 8, 2022

What a start to Q4! Volatility is here to stay and is seems like a bear market continues to be the dominant theme.


It’s important to balance out macro and technical outlooks when looking ahead for the markets. Both seem to be lining up for generally lower equity prices but if your a trader this is a great environment to play the swing. So far everything has been pretty textbook in terms of a bear market.


We hope you enjoy the show! Please email us with your thoughts on the markets, our guests and companies you would like to see us interview. Our email addresses are and 


  • Segment 1 and 2 – Peter Boockvar, Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Financial Group and Editor of The Boock Report kicks off the show by sharing the main themes of his upcoming talk at the New Orleans Investment Conference. It’s titled “Everything Is Clear As Mud”. This refers to central bank policy, economic data and a couple other key market drivers. We discuss everything from inflation data, interest rates, the US Dollar run and precious metals.
  • Segment 3 and 4 – Doc joined us on Wednesday for his monthly technical update on metals, markets and the US Dollar. This is a replay of that interview. If you want to get a good understanding of long terms trends, Doc is a great listen.


Exclusive Company Interviews This Week

Peter Boockvar
Richard Postma – Doc
    Oct 08, 2022 08:15 AM

    Dollar Index : Fall 2022 : There May Be More : Diminishing Upside Resistance

    Oct 08, 2022 08:03 AM
      Oct 08, 2022 08:25 AM

      Paybacks are a bitch, I’ve heard.

    Oct 08, 2022 08:45 AM

    Thanks to all the KE Report guest contributors for another great week of daily editorials, company interviews with management, and another solid weekend show with Peter & Doc.

    Also thanks to all the listeners of the podcast and radio show, and those members of the KER crew that post and participate here on the blog, sharing insights with our community. Ever Upward!

    Oct 08, 2022 08:54 AM

    ‘Corporate Earnings Suggest The Economy’s On The Brink Of Recession’

    Jesse Felder – The Felder Report – (10/08/2022)

      Oct 09, 2022 09:07 PM

      Why The Bear Market In Stocks May Only Be Halfway Through

      Jesse Felder – October 5, 2022

      “There are a lot of different ways to analyze markets; fundamental and technical analysis are two of the most popular. Certainly, assessing the likely future path for corporate earnings and studying price patterns and momentum are both worthwhile if not crucial to successful investing. Fundamentals tell a story about trends in the business cycle and technicals tell you how investors react to hearing that story. Each, then, is most useful when viewed in context of the other.”

      “As to the fundamentals, history suggests that the rapid rises in the dollar, interest rates and oil prices over the past couple of years represent a uniquely bearish trifecta that will likely have a very negative effect on earnings over the next year or so. Long-term technicals, notably momentum, appear to confirm this analysis. And bearish fundamentals paired with bearish technicals may simply be an effective way of defining a bear market (better at least than the arbitrary 20% rule).”

    Oct 08, 2022 08:24 AM

    Silver Stocks Leading After Gold Bear Trap Reversal

    David Erfle – The Junior Mining Junky – Friday October 7, 2022

    “With market focus having mostly been on the Federal Reserve in recent weeks, a banking crisis in Europe began to shake things up heading into quarter-end last week. The recent events surrounding the Bank of England (BoE) being forced to intervene to shore up its markets is bringing the realization that the trigger for the next recession could very well be abroad.”

    “After the BoE pledged to engage in strategic buying of long-dated bonds in order to support sinking bond markets, this form of quantitative easing was a surprise reversal of the central bank’s plan to start selling its existing holdings of government bonds. What this means is that a major central bank is now injecting monetary stimulus at the same time it is raising interest rates…”

    “Although the idea that a central bank might simultaneously buy assets while raising interest rates seems completely absurd, the stock market has also reversed sharply to the upside on expectations of the Fed pivoting monetary policy prematurely. There is a growing investor acceptance that the BoE is not going to be the last central bank to cap rates, and eventually, the U.S. will follow suit.”

      Oct 08, 2022 08:33 AM

      Staying Purposeful and Resolute in the Battle against Inflation

      Raphael Bostic – President and Chief Executive Officer – Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta – Oct 5, 2022

      “The past couple of monthly inflation prints produced a mixed bag, with some evidence that the pace of month-to-month price increases has slowed. But the August inflation reports were a sobering reminder that price pressures remain broad and stubborn.”

      “Over the next several months, as monetary policy takes hold, we will see aggregate demand slacken as we seek to bring demand in alignment with supply. The strength of labor markets will wane, and economic activity will weaken, which is fundamentally necessary to reduce inflation.”

      “What economists have come to call stop-and-go monetary policy—tightening in the face of rising inflation only to reverse course abruptly when unemployment rises—likely helped fuel inflation during the late 1960s and 1970s (see the following image). Moving too aggressively could introduce the temptation to abruptly shift course. Most notably, the risk there is that monetary policy could slam the brakes on economic activity, and then the Committee might conclude it should reverse course and ease policy. Therein lies the risk of repeating the stop-and-go approach that arguably contributed to economic instability in the late 1960s and ’70s.”

      “As the chair noted, there could be short-term pain. That may be the unfortunate cost of reducing inflation…. We’re seven months into the tightening cycle. We likely still have some ways to go. Ideally, I would like to reach a point where policy is moderately restrictive—between 4 and 4 1/2 percent by the end of this year—and then hold at that level and see how the economy and prices react. I do not think we should continue raising rates until the inflation level has gotten down to 2 percent. Because of the lag dynamics of our policy that I discussed earlier, this would guarantee an overshoot and a deep recession.”

        Oct 08, 2022 08:43 AM

        Based on that take from Raphael Bostic, the President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, then their messaging is that they plan to hike rates to 4.5% by year end, and then pause… That is what has seemed most likely the whole time anyway.

        As he mentioned, once they get the Fed funds rate up to 4%-4.5% their plan is to “then hold at that level and see how the economy and prices react. I do not think we should continue raising rates until the inflation level has gotten down to 2 percent.”

        So those still holding out for a quick reversal into cutting rates are still quite premature. The most likely scenario moving forward is 2 more rate hikes in Nov & Dec, followed by the Powell Pause that refreshes. As Marc Chandler pointed out, the Fed funds futures contracts are pricing in a cut by the end of 2023, but that has drifted back to Q3, where it was earlier pegged at Q1 and then Q2 of 2023.

        Now, if something in the economy does break, then we could see the same kind of lunacy Dave Erfle mentioned above with the Bank of England where the central bank might simultaneously buy assets (as in they’d go back to buying bonds which is QE), while raising interest rates. That is counterproductive in some ways, but I could see in a crisis the Fed implementing more bond buying as quantitative easing, before they just switch right back to cutting rates again. It would have to get real ugly real fast for them to go from hiking to cutting in such short order. It’s far more likely the that Powell Pivot would be more like what the B.O.E. just did keep hiking rates with one hand, and start buying bonds to backstop that liquidity with the other.

          Oct 09, 2022 09:17 PM

          Fed Officials Remain Steadfast: Hike Rates And Hold Them There

          Jennifer Schonberger · Senior Reporter Yahoo Finance – Sun, October 9, 2022

          “Fed officials cautioned markets against hoping for rate cuts next year by sending the unified message that they intend to hike rates and hold them there, even if confronted with signs of a weakening economy.”

          “The hotter-than-expected September jobs report released Friday justified the Fed’s intended actions to tame inflation and underscored that officials have room to do so without knocking the job market off course.”

            Oct 09, 2022 09:24 PM

            So there you go… People that are holding out for a sudden Powell Pivot to rate cuts are going to be sorely disappointed, if the Fed hikes again in Nov & Dec (and possibly one more small hike in Q1), and then pause rates there for quite some time. They are coming out and messaging this quite regularly, and have been for some time that they were going to keep hiking.

            Granted the Fed are notorious flip-floppers and said they weren’t even “thinking of thinking about hiking rates until 2023,” that “inflation is transitory,” and that they were only considering a 50 basis point hike when they came out and did 75 basis points. Clearly they did start thinking about rate hikes by the end of 2021 so that was a lie. Inflation was anything but transitory so that was either about the dumbest read on the economic conditions they helped create, or more likely purposeful misdirection and obfuscation. The increase in rate hikes after messaging another thing was misleading.

            So in this case, them stating emphatically that they are going to keep hiking through year-end and maybe Q1 and then hold those rates there in a big Powell Pause…. may be the best laid plans…. However, if push comes to shove and something does “break” then of course they may very well have to eat those words next year. We shall see how it all plays out…

            Oct 10, 2022 10:50 AM

            Federal Reserve Is OK Plunging Economy Into A Recession

            Brian Sozzi · Yahoo Finance Anchor, Editor-at-Large – Mon, October 10, 2022

            “Unfortunately, yes [the Fed would be OK with a recession]. I’m going to say yes,” BMO senior economist Jennifer Lee said on Yahoo Finance Live. “And the Fed has sort of softened its tone a little bit over the past two months. They used to say that they could probably do this and achieve a softish [economic] landing. But now they’ve already said that there will be pain felt. And it’s unfortunate, but this is what happens when a central bank is aggressively tightening.”

            Lee added she is looking for a “mild recession” in the U.S.


    Oct 08, 2022 08:50 AM

    Doc is 100% correct, this selloff is NOT over.
    The recent dead cat bounce will begin to roll over next week as inflation will still be running hot, partly due to the recent rally in the oil price.
    Higher oil = higher production costs = lower profits.
    Add in a lowering gold price and you get all you need for these stocks to continue to slide further down.
    The washout in this sector during Q4 will be one for the record books.
    SELL NOW!!!!!!
    With out CASH you won’t be able to take advantage of the incredibly low prices in these stocks come December.
    DO IT NOW!!!

      Oct 08, 2022 08:56 AM

      That was a better post than normal Joe. This time you actually provided some rationale to your thesis of why you think markets will keep correcting (tying into inflation next week and energy prices). Also you indicated that you want to raise cash to be able to buy the resource equities in December at lower prices, finally providing more color around what you want to do with this cash. Thanks for sharing your thoughts.

      (it would be nice if you didn’t have the multiple lines of yelling in ALL CAPS at everyone with excessive exclamation points… but hey overall getting better).

      Oct 09, 2022 09:05 AM

      I followed your advice and sold some last week

      Not sure if your forecast will work out

      Some say that $1616 in September was already the bottom

      Some say there will be a washout end of the year

      Some say the bottom is still 8 months away

        Oct 09, 2022 09:01 PM

        Yes, some say a lot of things… but as Bob M. stated in his book “Nobody knows anything.”

          Oct 09, 2022 09:05 PM

          However, Bob himself stated this last week that we just saw a major capitulation in gold stocks.


          Bob Moriarty: We Just Witnessed A Major Capitulation In Gold Stocks

          Energy & Gold w/ @Goldfinger – 10/05/2022

          “The last time we spoke with 321gold founder Bob Moriarty one month ago, Bob was very clear that a major tradable low in precious metals was imminent. It turned out that Bob nailed the low in silver to the day. But gold needed to run everyone’s stop-loss orders with a sell-off below $1670 in the futures last week, before reversing higher and reaching a high of $1738 yesterday. In this month’s conversation Bob explains why he believes we may have witnessed a major capitulation in gold stocks last week…”

          > Bob Moriarty:

          “Well, for some stocks like Barrick Gold September 1st was the bottom, it was the bottom for silver too. And then three weeks later, gold bottomed, and then everything fell apart because of the British pound, and it continued down. But certainly if you look at gold today, it appears to be strong. However, I will say that I think from a sentiment point of view, we had a bottom on September 1st and then we had another retest of that bottom. And I think that gold, silver, and the shares have seen capitulation and should move much higher from here.”

          Oct 10, 2022 10:19 AM

          Bob also said that we would not get tax loss selling in November/Dezember this year

          Would be the same scenario than last year where the bottom was in September

          I am not sure if he is right. JOE would als not agree with him 🙂

          We probably still get two rate hikes what makes this year different from last year

          Also the inflation is higher than last year through the war in Ukraine

            Oct 10, 2022 10:13 AM

            Yep, it’s possible that most of the tax loss selling has already occurred at this point, and so the late Nov – early Dec tax loss selling may be more muted. Also, people generally take their tax losses to wash out gains in other stocks, and since 2022 has a been a bear market in most sectors, it seems like there would be less tax losses needed to be taken.

            Now as for the Fed hiking in Nov & Dec that is different than last year, and that may trigger just more selling in general, and maybe people will attach that “tax loss selling” in their narrative, but it would be selling due to more weakness in the markets. As for the persistently high and non-transitory inflation, that is a different dynamic and the higher prices for energy, labor, chemicals, blasting supplies, and building supplies is continuing to pressure the producers at operations, and the economic assumptions in developers projects on their PFS or FS.

    Oct 08, 2022 08:52 AM

    Gold Price & US Dollar Update

    Christopher Aaron – iGold Advisor – October 6, 2022

      Oct 08, 2022 08:12 AM

      How To Interpret Today’s Jobs Report, And What Does It Mean For Gold Prices?

      Gary Wagner – The Gold Forecast – Oct 7, 2022

    Oct 08, 2022 08:02 AM

    (SAND) (SSL) Sandstorm Gold: Record Gold Equivalent Production In Q3

    Fun Trading – Seeking Alpha – Oct. 08, 2022

    “Sandstorm Gold indicated preliminary revenues of $38.9 million for the three months ended September 30, 2022, compared with $27.6 million for the comparable period in 2021.”

    “Sandstorm Gold Royalties reported that it sold approximately 22,600 attributable gold equivalent ounces in 3Q22.”

    “I recommend buying SAND at or below $4.85 with possible lower support at $4.35.”

      Oct 08, 2022 08:16 PM

      Ex, you may easily see a $3.00-$4.00 handle on Sand—I’ve been licking my lips waiting for this move lower. I say this because for the first time in 6 years, the 12 and 26 month moving averages on the monthly macd have broken below neutral this past 3rd quarter and are strongly moving lower.

        Oct 08, 2022 08:16 PM

        Thanks for the heads up on the price levels to watch in Sandstorm Doc. Yeah, pricing broke down recently when retail traders got emotional about the latest capital raise. They are a $1.5 Billion company that borrowed $80 Million to deal with the interest increases on a debt facility that was going from 3.5% to 8% and they don’t want to get stuck with the higher interest payments, and it will give them wiggle room to potentially do another acquisition down the road.

        Well investors were very unhappy with the timing of it and raising at a low point in the stock price, due to the bad market sentiment, so people just took SAND about the woodshed and beat on them.

        I actually added a little to my position last week into the carnage, as it’s like the market has completely forgotten about the massive transaction just completed where they took over Nomad Royalty (which was a very impressive collection of royalties) and Baselode Royalties (a spinout from Glencore). Those acquisitions are very undervalued now in the current situation, and the outsized move down recently is likely why the MACD broke below neutral.

      Oct 08, 2022 08:31 PM

      Hi E$x, when you list a price for Sandstorm are you referring to US dollars, a lot of Canadians would like to know. DT

        Oct 08, 2022 08:19 PM

        Hi DT. I didn’t actually make those price recommendations, the guy that wrote the article did named “FunTrading” on Seeking Alpha. There is a link right after that passage above to talk one to his analysis.

        He’s talking about (SAND) and most of Seeking Alpha is US ticker based, so those targets he mentioned of below $4.85 with possible lower support at $4.35 were US Dollar based.

    Oct 08, 2022 08:39 AM

    Over a longer term there are 2 highly respected analyst see the bottom in gold around $1550 2nd half of 23? Does that fit with your ideas Doc! I don’t want to mention any names!

      Oct 08, 2022 08:03 PM

      FIH, those guys could be right on; in fact it could happen sooner then they think; the important thing is to understand the odds are very good that we’re going to move lower over time and you should be able to pick up some of the high cap stocks at better pricing then we’re seeing now. I don’t normally like to pick out lows since that’s a losing scenario; I just keep buying here and there on pullbacks. Remember, Rick Rule was purchasing stocks last spring and said he might be early but that the could wait for the ultimate move higher. He was early and I could tell it from the charts. I will get a lot more aggressive the end of this year and into the first quarter of next year since I believe by March of 2023 the worse will be over for the sector. Certainly, some of the large caps could still move lower, however, the large % of the moves down will be in the rear view mirror.

    Oct 08, 2022 08:36 PM

    Hi E$x, in your portfolio are you more heavily weighted towards silver stocks than gold stocks, and silver producers rather than gold producers. DT

      Oct 08, 2022 08:01 PM

      Hi DT – I am pretty balanced in my portfolio now between gold and silver stocks, with the largest weightings to the producers and royalty companies, then advanced developers, and then a few explorers in each one. I had a lot more explorers in the past, but I pulled in my horns and reduced the overall number of positions since the end of last year to present. I also reduced down my battery metals positions a great deal in copper , nickel, zinc and am completely out of lithium stocks. I still have 7 positions on in uranium miners to keep a fishing pole in that pond.

        Oct 08, 2022 08:31 PM

        That sounds like a pretty sensible approach, Ex, and balanced risk-wise as well as positioned according to possible current trends (fingers-crossed with gold and silver stocks).

        I watched this video below from Finding Value channel which had some thoughts about portfolios, which revolved mostly around uranium, but towards the end Andy, the host, asks the guests about their approaches and then shares his (he gives his thoughts around the 1 hour 20 minute mark).

        There were two things that struck me. One was his approach towards physical metals, and with his allocating of them according to ratios, e.g., G-S-R (Bob Moriarty also talks about this – The other was his emphasis on energy stocks with potential for high cash flow values going forward.

        The video is here:

        Anyway, I know you guys have some great guests who share information on energy stocks that I’ve found to be very helpful, so thought I’d mention.


          Oct 09, 2022 09:35 PM

          Hi MoldyOle – Thanks for your feedback on portfolio rebalancing (yes, fingers crossed on gold and silver stocks indeed), and the 2 different links you provided. I’ll check those out and appreciate you sharing them here on the blog. Much appreciated.

        Oct 08, 2022 08:05 PM

        Still completely out of lithium…….interesting…… I was sucked into them after listening to Doc Jones…. had some Orezone warrants that expired in January so didn’t want to wait to last minute and was selling them so had some cash….. and on the other metal front what’s up with Stillwater these days???…. seems to be getting awfully cheap at these levels….I haven’t held it since a quick flip in the .40’s.( I’m talking C$)

          Oct 08, 2022 08:51 PM

          Yeah, I got out Lithium by the end of last year, and just feel most of the companies valuations are very rich, even after the pullback some had this year, and there are some new ones that have just gone absolutely ballistic in price and are out way over their skis at this point (like Patriot Battery Metals or Pilbara Minerals or Lithium Ionic or even the majors like SQM, Albemarle, or Allkem). Even that Sigma Lithium that Doc Jones mentioned is up at nearly a $4 Billion valuation right now and it’s still in construction, but that chart is has gone parabolic. Lithium Americas is also in development and pre-production with a whopping market cap at over a $3 Billion valuation which seems more than fully valued now. While I owned it for years, I sold it in tranches last year when it just kept climbing and climbing…. It did eventually pulled back some, but then whipsawed in a sideways channel, and overall it’s held onto most of those gains and is still up at a rather rich valuation at present.

          I mean sure…. in a mania things can always go higher, but it’s hard to chase these lithium stocks even higher here when they’ve already made their big runs and the best gains were made buying a few years back and riding it up to last year’s highs in many of the mores establish ones. However we’ve seen another handful really take off in the last 2 years and just keep running higher. It’s just too frothy and such an overcrowded trade for me now, after having having followed the sector for over a decade when the valuations were so attractive and begging for a re-rating higher. Now they’ve all had that re-rating in the last 2 years, so I’m more interested in other sectors that haven’t made their moves yet (like gold & silver). If Lithium stocks had a corrective move like many other commodities where they got chopped in half or even better went down 60%-80% in valuations, then I’d likely get back in, but right now that whole sector is already pretty juiced.

          It is similar with Uranium stocks, but their valuations still have much further to run before I’d consider then nearly as frothy and overbought as Lithium stocks. For that reason, I’m still in the U-stocks despite the really big moves higher we’ve saw from early 2020 into late 2021, and did sell 85% of them last Sept & Oct, and then repositioned during tax loss and caught a nice rally from Jan – Apr in many stocks. They rolled over again heading into early July, and then they caught a nice rally in August. Now they’re whipsawing again, but I could see Uranium and related U stocks gaining on the energy narrative and reality, where there have even been lightbulbs going off in in even the dimmest heads of many politicians and radical environmentalists and their lobbyists. Nuclear is going back into another renaissance period and so I see the potential for another breakout into the next 1-2 years.

          As for Orezone, I still have my core position left, after having pulled profits in it last year, and again earlier this year. Now that they are in production, I’m tempted to sell it in case they run in the typical startup and teething issues that so many plants have, but it has just been such a well run company, and such a quality asset, that it’s hard to sell out of it and rotate into something more subpar… even if the subpar assets may actually have more upside potential at this point. That’s the same way I feel about Silvercrest…. they are in production now, got everything built on time and underbudget, and should have very attractive margins, so it’s just as hard to sell that as it is to part with my remaining Orezone position.

          I don’t mind hanging on to a few of the best-in-class in my portfolio (like Silvercrest, Orezone, Wesdome, Silvercorp, etc…) to counter-balance on the risk I’m taking in betting on Ugly Duckling turn-around stories, or the #BestOfTheWorst with higher margin smaller and mid-tier producers.

            Oct 09, 2022 09:13 PM

            Thinking of buying an EV? Read this first

            Posted by DanSteffens – Energy Prospectus Group – Thu Oct 06, 2022

            FROM: Dr. Jay Lehr and Tom Harris

            “The utility companies have thus far had little to say about the alarming cost projections to operate electric vehicles (EVs) or the increased rates that they will be required to charge their customers. It is not just the total amount of electricity required, but the transmission lines and fast charging capacity that must be built at existing filling stations. Neither wind nor solar can support any of it. Electric vehicles will never become the mainstream of transportation.”

            > EV Charging Insanity

            “In order to match the 2,000 cars that a typical filling station can service in a busy 12 hours, an EV charging station would require 600, 50-watt chargers at an estimated cost of $24 million and a supply of 30 megawatts of power from the grid. That is enough to power 20,000 homes. No one likely thinks about the fact that it can take 30 minutes to 8 hours to recharge a vehicle between empty or just topping off. What are the drivers doing during that time?”

            ICSC-Canada board member, New Zealand-based consulting engineer Bryan Leyland, describes why installing electric car charging stations in a city is impractical:

            “If you’ve got cars coming into a petrol station, they would stay for an average of five minutes. If you’ve got cars coming into an electric charging station, they would be at least 30 minutes, possibly an hour, but let’s say its 30 minutes. So that’s six times the surface area to park the cars while they’re being charged. So, multiply every petrol station in a city by six. Where are you going to find the place to put them?”


            Oct 09, 2022 09:35 PM

            Flooded Tesla EVs From Hurricane Ian Exploding All Over Florida

            Thom Taylor – Motorbiscuit – 10h ago

            “In the aftermath of the devastating Hurricane Ian in Florida, things are going from bad to worse. The destruction is massive, and also ongoing. That’s because even though the hurricane occurred over a week ago, its after-effects are mounting. These include the instances of Tesla EVs exploding into flames around the state. The mixture of electricity and salt water leads to these latent fires.”


    Oct 08, 2022 08:03 PM

    Cory’s comments at the beginning of the Doic section are spot on. Cant believe so many commentators are so convinced they know exactly what’s going to happen, when there are so many cross currents and global events that are entirely unpredictable

    Oct 09, 2022 09:07 AM

    The Saudis and The Russians are warming up their relations. They are telling The World that we will decide the price of oil not The West. The petrodollar is now bankrupt.

    During The Second World War two things brought the German Army to its knees, the availability of energy to keep its war machine rolling and the Russian army.

    Guess who has a huge army stationed all over the globe. The US relies on cheap Russian and Saudi oil. The Americans achilleas heel is exposed for everyone to see. The US prints money to buy cheap oil, cut off their supply of cheap crude and their war game is over, not to mention the effect on their economy. That is a dangerous game in dangerous times. DT

    Oct 09, 2022 09:09 PM

    You can be sure of one thing, The Asian central banks are now buying gold hand over fist, because they intend to set up an alternative to the US dollar and using their US currency to purchase it. DT

    Oct 09, 2022 09:13 PM

    Wannabe bulls should not ignore the clear message being sent by SILJ vs GDX:

    Oct 09, 2022 09:51 PM

    Regarding silver’s bullish cup and handle patterns, neither of them are ideal. In fact it’s not even close unless stockcharts is wrong. Nevertheless, both are plenty bullish and we NOT need nor want a lower low as that would make the pattern much less bullish.
    We absolutely do not want this quarter to end with a quarterly MACD sell signal. We have that sell signal now but the quarterly close is what matters and that’s nearly 3 months away.
    Quarterly silver through the end of Q3:

      Oct 09, 2022 09:56 PM

      On the first trading day of Q4 the MACD and its signal line were tied at 0.986 luckily…

      Today that MACD is on a sell but it’s meaningless until the quarter ends. My bet is that the sell signal will be strongly avoided.

      Oct 09, 2022 09:34 PM

      Thanks for those longer-term Silver charts Matthew, and the thoughts on the Cup & Handle patterns (the big one going back to 1980 at $49 and $2011 at $49 to present, and the smaller one from 2012 to 2020/2021 in that $28-$30 zone to present.

      I’d agree that it would not be good for Silver to go down and make a lower low, below that recent flash crash low down to $17.40, and it would not be good to end the quarter with a MACD sell signal.

      Silver had plenty of time to get thrashed down in the low $teens, and took like what felt forever to get back up above $18 again. Then for over a year it got stuck in that $22-$29 trading range, until more recently where it finally broke down under $22 (and that support tested about 3-4 times at $21.41). This is what kicked off that swift capitulation down to $17.40 in the first place, and after seeing Silver recover so quickly and get back up above $18 and $19 again, and even breaking above $20 this last week, it would not be good to see that bear-trap and recent short-squeeze get reversed.

      Personally, I want to see a close above $21.41 again (prior support now resistance) on a weekly basis to get more excited about an upside rally. We are just a little over a dollar away from that area now, and it may be hard initially to break up through it, but still, that is a line in the sand, along with the psychological round number of $22, that would be nice to see Silver reclaim. A further breakdown in pricing in the next few months for Q4, would not only negate that potential, but set up a much worse longer-term situation.

      People that seem OK with one more proverbial “final flush” down in the Silver prices to $14-$15, don’t seem to realize the chart damage that would cause for the medium to longer-term. We’ve seen plenty of pain in the silver price for a long time, and at this point, reclaiming, $21.41, then $22, and then making the trek back up to the resistance and congestion in the $29-$30 resistance would be much better for setting up a good 2023.

        Oct 09, 2022 09:49 PM

        Yeah how many “final flushes” do we need? lol

        I meant to include this from stockcharts re cup-and-handles:

        3. Cup Depth: Ideally, the depth of the cup should retrace 1/3 or less of the previous advance. However, with volatile markets and over-reactions, the retracement could range from 1/3 to 1/2. In extreme situations, the maximum retracement could be 2/3, which conforms with Dow Theory.

        4. Handle: After the high forms on the right side of the cup, there is a pullback that forms the handle. Sometimes this handle resembles a flag or pennant that slopes downward, other times it is just a short pullback. The handle represents the final consolidation/pullback before the big breakout and can retrace up to 1/3 of the cup’s advance, but usually not more. The smaller the retracement, the more bullish the formation and significant the breakout. Sometimes it is prudent to wait for a break above the resistance line established by the highs of the cup.

        Read more here:

        Oct 09, 2022 09:27 PM

        Silver going to $14………. You will not be able to capitalize on it… the spread will be huge……
        Spot plus ………. Phzy…….. no way is anyone going to buy silver for $14……… pipe dream…..

          Oct 10, 2022 10:39 AM

          Hi OOTB. Yeah we’ve seen a few technicians mention that they could see Silver pulling back $14 on the futures market (not physical), where most of the market tracks the prices of the PMs. Again, I would see that as pretty bad technically for silver it was to have that further wash out, but it isn’t something I’m expecting to see personally; just a probability others have noted.

    Oct 09, 2022 09:08 PM

    Final Flush: Been there, done that. Ready for a final flush of Central Banking and corruption.

      Oct 10, 2022 10:56 AM

      Lake, the final flush will sound like the old two-piece toilet on All in The Family, 704 Hauser St! LOL! DT

    Oct 09, 2022 09:07 PM

    Gold closed 2 weeks below the 200 week SMA and EMA as well as the March 2021 low yet the bears couldn’t make anything happen nor could they stop gold from reclaiming those significant broken supports. Looks like a bear trap to me…

    Oct 09, 2022 09:01 PM

    Silver looks good in dollars or gold and went up 20%+ versus both of them in the last 5 weeks.

    Oct 09, 2022 09:05 PM
    Oct 10, 2022 10:04 AM

    Gold is back down testing that level again in the $1670’s today (currently at $1677).

    We’ll see how things develop and if it can stay above $1673-$1675 for the close today.

      Oct 10, 2022 10:16 PM

      This action is fine as long as it improves by Friday. An unambiguous positive is that the gold miners outperformed gold today while the silver miners outperformed the gold miners.
      The gold and silver miners (XAU) vs the stock market looks perfectly fine as well. After going up 29% in a month XAU:SPX has pulled back sharply but normally and is now up about 20% since bottoming last month…

    Oct 10, 2022 10:15 AM

    It looks like the Uranium miners are getting monkey hammered down today, so I added to 2 existing positions today in (UUUU) and (NXE).

      Oct 10, 2022 10:24 AM

      Uranium. I sold my one for a tax loss. So will need to either wait or find a different one.
      Since it is a Cad holiday, Schwab doesn’t publish OTC current price for Cad based miners.
      So how are things going with the miners today?

        Oct 10, 2022 10:04 PM

        Well, it appears to be a mixed bag in the PM stocks based on US listed big board companies and the OTC listings. We are seeing a few extreme moves in the OTC stocks actually, but that is common to see on a low volume day, with Canadian markets being closed for Thanksgiving, and with it also being a holiday in the US where some have off work, and banks are closed, so many traders skip today’s session. Also the bond market is closed today.

        Many of the best Uranium stocks have big board NYSE or Nasdaq listings so I can see how my positions are getting hit to the downside in UUUU – Energy Fuels, URG – Ur-Energy, UEC – Uranium Energy Corp, DNN – Dension Mines, UROY – Uranium Royalty Corp., and NXE Nexgen. I can see also that CCJ Cameco is down on the day, although I’ve never wanted to own it, and most of the uranium stocks on OTC are down on the day as well in sympathy with the big boys.

        That is the trend for the day, but I don’t really see what is causing it fundamentally, other than an across-the-board market selloff today, with the US Dollar up, and most other sectors down on the day. (except Copper which is up and that is an odd anomaly today as well).

          Oct 10, 2022 10:09 PM

          One would think with the further escalation with Russia & Ukraine lately, that it would actually underpin the necessity to get domestic supplies of Uranium, outside of Russia and ex-Russian spin-out states like Kazakhstan. If trade sanctions escalate from here it also should be a boon to higher Uranium prices.

            Oct 10, 2022 10:49 PM

            Thanks Ex. I listened to Quinton Hennigh talk about Eloro on Crescat’s Friday youtube program. I was going to look into adding some to that, but if they want to make uranium a better buy, it might be the near time better buy.

            Oct 10, 2022 10:58 PM

            Sure. Glad to share some thoughts on this slower day in the markets. Yeah, Eloro has been hitting some phenomenal long intercepts of polymetallic hits with Tin, Zinc, Silver, Lead, and other metals. It may outperform the Uranium stocks in the near-term if there are more great drill holes that get released, but it is a different focus, different metals, and in Bolivia, so hard to really compare it to North American Uraninum stocks, as they are a bit apples and oranges.

      Oct 10, 2022 10:56 PM

      I see little reason to buy uranium stocks now including UUUU and NXE.

          Oct 10, 2022 10:14 PM

          Yeah, NXE is at a more precarious place on that neckline, so it would be better to bounce from where it is now, because if it breaks down through there, it could be a swift move down the other side.

          Thanks for that chart Matthew, as I’ll have to watch Nexgen a little closer than some of the other U stocks to make sure I don’t get caught in a waterfall decline.

        Oct 10, 2022 10:11 PM

        It looks like UUUU has held that bottom prong on the fork support the last few times it’s tested it and is still channeling higher gradually. It’s not a screaming buy, and I wouldn’t want to see it break below that fork support, but still there is some room where it could go up to the top part of that range again isn’t there?

    Oct 10, 2022 10:41 PM

    It’s been 25 weeks since GDX:GLD closed a week above it’s KAMA but it’s likely going to happen soon. The tide is clearly turning…

    Oct 10, 2022 10:59 PM

    Petrodollar days numbered?
    Sen. Robert Menendez, head of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, is calling for freezing all U.S. cooperation with Saudi Arabia, including arms sales. It’s one of the strongest expressions yet of U.S. anger over Saudi oil-production cuts.

    Oct 10, 2022 10:15 PM

    Central Banking, by all the news floating around, has some issues that seem to be coming down the side of the mountain in an avalanche of disaster. How long can they overcome reality. We will see …

    Oh by the way, it appears no one wants US Treasuries.

    Oct 10, 2022 10:58 PM

    Since when did these markets make sense? I’ve still got 1/3 position in UVXY, day trading just in case market tumble escalates. Powell is no Paul Volker. Where is 31 trillion debt going to run & hide? Long JR miners

      Oct 10, 2022 10:31 PM

      The markets have always made sense if you accept criminal intervention as reality. If you attempt to make economic reality out of the markets, they won’t make sense.

    Oct 11, 2022 11:02 AM

    Michael Boutros (30:33 Oil Gold Silver):

    Oct 11, 2022 11:51 PM

    Disney back in control of the Mining Sector… I am going to pretend today never happened so we have the same mindset ….

    Oct 11, 2022 11:10 PM

    I saw a special newscast on the problems in the Rikers Island prison in New York. I think Bankers and Central Bankers have special skills that could make that place safer. I have proposed to the Governor of New York to draft all supervisors of Wall Street Banks for their immediate public service as guards at Rikers, Or stop intervening in markets.
    I am hoping the dollar adjusts downward tomorrow as a result.