Weekend Show – Recapping The CPI Data And A Focus On Precious Metals and Energy Stocks
What a week for investors! Metals followed through on the pop last Friday and the US markets joined in on the rally on Thursday after the slightly softer than expected CPI number came in. It’s a nice reprieve from the downward pressure throughout this year and takes many sectors and indexes nicely above key support levels.
On this Weekend’s Show we focus on the precious metals and energy sector with a quick recap of the CPI number from this week and corresponding moves in currencies.
Please keep in touch with Shad and I through email – Fleck@kereport.com and Shad@kereport.com. We love hearing your thoughts on the show – good and bad 😉 – as well as the companies you would like to see us interview.
- Segment 1 – Marc Chandler, Managing Partner at Bannockburn Global ForEx and Editor of the Marc to Market website kicks off the show with a focus on the CPI data. We discuss the trend of the inflation, where Marc sees inflation bottoming, currency moves including the US Dollar crashing this week and where this all leaves the Fed in terms of future policy.
- Segment 2 – Jeff Christian, Managing Partner at CPM Group joins us to recap the pop in precious metals prices to kick off the week and what the key drivers are moving into next year. Jeff also comments on the origins of inflation and what to watch in upcoming data.
- Segment 3 and 4 – We shift our focus to the energy sector with Dan Steffens, President of the Energy Prospectus Group. We start with a quick overview of the macro environment for oil and gas. We then get into a stocks Dan likes and what he thinks investors should be looking for when analyzing potential investments.
- Dan is also offering all of you $100 off when signing up for the Energy Prospectus Group! Simply email firstname.lastname@example.org and say that you heard him on our show.
We will be hosting a webinar with Awale Resources (TSX.V:ARIC) on Wednesday November 16th at 12-noon PT. Glen Parsons, President and CEO of Awale Resources will join me to provide an overview of the Company’s renewed exploration strategy which includes the highly prospective acquisition in Suriname and an update on activities at the Odienne Project JV (Newmont is earning into this JV). Glen will also be answering any questions you have. Please email me directly with your questions (Fleck@kereport.com). You will also have the opportunity to ask questions during the live webinar.
Click here to register for free!
Exclusive Company Interviews This Week
- Arizona Sonoran Copper – Initial Results From The 32,000 Meter Drill Program At Parks/Salyer, Including 217.7 Meters Of 1.01% Total Copper
- I-80 Gold – 14.5 Million Ounces Of Gold Resources, 4 Projects, Over $1 Billion Of Infrastructure, And Multi-fold Production Growth Over The Next Few Years
- SilverCrest Metals – Commercial Production Declared, How This Silver Miner Stacks Up In The Sector
- Awale Resources – Priority IOCG Targets Defined At The Odienné Project With Newmont In An Earn In JV
- Dolly Varden Silver – Further High-Grade Drill Results Expand Torbrit Resource Area And 50 More Drill Holes To Still Release From The Wolf And Homestake Areas
- Capella Minerals – Completes Acquisition Of Lithium and REE Projects In Finland And Closes An Oversubscribed Financing
- Lion One Metals – More Information On The 500 Zone, Recent High-Grade Drill Results, Size and Up Coming Drill Results
- Magna Mining – Two Nickel-Copper-PGM Development Projects On The Pathway To Near-term Production
FTX crypto’s have gone into bankruptcy, The Ontario Teacher’s Pension fund had a huge position in these worthless tokens. My take is “Appearing smart but being stupid”. Crypto’s belong in the crypt. BYE, BYE! DT 😏
This news with FTX is just another black eye for the Cryptoverse, and in particular demonstrates the immense 3rd party risk in Crypto Exchanges. We’ve seen about a half dozen epic fails on the crypto exchanges over the last few years from cyber hacks, to freezing of customer funds, to straight up fraud.
It is a curious case where often investors are not using digital wallets to store their cryptos directly, but instead are using an intermediary 3rd party exchange to buy and hold coins, as the custodian. There are a nunber of different kinds of problems that can arrise when another company actually owns the crypto that you think you own, especially if they issue you some kind of derivative token as a placeholder for value.
This also flies directly in the face of investors in Bitcoin and other security Altcoins that claim the benefits are it being “decentralized without 3rd party risk.” They rail on about the risks of keeping fiat currencies due to the national risks to that fiat being devalued. However, if someone is using a crypto exchange then they are doing the same thing, (which is the opposite of what they claim they want), and introducing a cenralized 3rd party between them and the actual cryptocurrency. Craziness!
Ex, I know something the other posters don’t know, you are not from this planet. LOL! DT
Actually there are some folks that were expecting this –
Folks need to go over to YouTube and listen to Marc Cohodes over at Hedgeye Investing. You can start at about 36min into the conversation to hear about FTX, but you will miss some good stuff about silicon batteries. Hear it at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VbDiWXFxqr8 In this interview he talks about how SBF and Gary Wang and strongly suggests that they are all vaporware. He also goes into Dan Freidberg, the Chief Regulatory office at FTX. The guy was part of a poker cheating scandal on a gambling website. What a bunch!
Implosion of a Trusted Exchange Shakes the Cryptocurrency Faithful
David Yaffe-Bellany – Wed, November 9, 2022
“Over the past two years, Sam Bankman-Fried, a 30-year-old entrepreneur, built a crypto exchange called FTX into a $32 billion company. He spent hundreds of millions of dollars to prop up struggling crypto firms. And he became a major political donor to Joe Biden’s presidential campaign as well as a frequent, welcome presence in the halls of Congress.”
“Then, in a matter of days, it was suddenly Bankman-Fried who needed a bailout, thanks in large part to Twitter posts from a rival that questioned the stability of FTX’s business. The tweets sparked what was essentially a three-day bank run of an estimated $6 billion that sent FTX into crisis.”
Wow the dirty crypto linen is starting to be hung out on the line for all to see –
It seems that many of the YouTubers that have been flogging FTX and spreading praise all over SBF are apologizing all over the place. The news that you can use on this point is that the “floggers” were being paid large $’s to push FTX. Who would have thunk it! Endorsements based on payments. Look for revelations showing that those folks are getting in on new tokens before the public offer so they buy very cheap, do a public pump then they dump theirs before the bottom falls out. The tears are flowing like rain and run straight to the bank.
Yes, dirty crypto linen indeed…. What a mess…
FTX saga unravels more after the crypto exchange’s bankruptcy filing
David Hollerith · Yahoo Finance Senior Reporter – Sun, November 13, 2022
“The bankruptcy filing of crypto exchange FTX on Friday did not stop the chaos surrounding the once prominent and trusted crypto trading venue. Since the filing that included 135 affiliated companies, millions of dollars in crypto have been stolen from the company, which is facing a shortfall between $6 billion and $10 billion. Bahamian officials are also probing the matter.”
“I don’t think it’s an understatement to predict that the FTX bankruptcy will be the most complex in U.S. history,” Caitlin Long, founder and CEO of Custodia Bank, told Yahoo Finance Live. “These were leveraged players who were just rolling the dice. This was a casino. Good riddance to them.”
“From Friday to Sunday, the global market capitalization for crypto assets is down 3% from $856 billion to $831 billion. Since November 1, it has fallen by 18% from a little over $1 trillion, according to Coinmarketcap.”
I’m sure a lot of the other holders of these worthless tokens will be disturbed to find their accounts frozen come Monday. Remember, everything is intertwined and interconnected these days and some of these crypto’s are run by venal promoters. The majority will expect the market for crypto’s to go on and on. LOL! DT
Yep, it’s sad, but we’ve seen this same thing happen to other crypto exchanges where customers could not get their funds out of the exchange and/or owners vanished with everyone’s money. Those will be unfortunate learning lessons for the diamond-handed HODLers.
Unfortunately the FTX exchange users that held their funds in accounts on the exchange got MF Globaled. Gary Gensler should be fired immediately. As a CFA Charterholder I’m embarrassed for my industry that this type of malfeasance and outright brazen theft can be allowed to take place.
Yes, it’s downright criminal behavior, and all too common.
Where’s that clown Joe? Probably won’t be showing up much around here any more.
All cryptos a ponzi scheme – FTX just the latest where early ringleaders of the ponzi pulled their dollars and went home.
Crypto another fancy name for “Alchemist” – where for 2k years they’ve tried to turn lead (electronic digits this time) into gold.
Hope all the goldbugs continue to stay on the sidelines and think this is just a bear market rally. Maybe they will finally buy in at $3k.
You guys can have your dollars, pesos, euros, cryptos, whatever. Nothing but a worthless piece of paper (or worse in case of crypto) backed by nothing.
Ryan, I wouldn’t be too surprised if Joe made a guest appearance on Monday or the beginning of next week. I think his cage is starting to rattle and the door might soon open. DT😉
Joe conveniently doesn’t ever show during the rallies, but if we see the dollar move higher and the metals roll over a little, then I’m sure he’ll pop on to say “hope you enjoyed the rally… now sell everything.” (never actually acknowledging that his prior “sell everything” comments marked the near-term low, and that he missed another rally for double-digit gains once again).
Gotta love it as a contrarian indicator.
Joe was right for awhile but nothing is permanent in investing. Something that is oversold it is, ( junior miners especially), it rewards you being a contrarian. Patience = Gains
Anyone can pop on periodiacally and post a vague “sell everything” or “buy everything” post with a megaphone, but using no fundamental, quantitative, or technical data, but that is just pissing in the wind, and has a 50/50 chance if being “right.”
It’s the equivalent of someone walking into a casino, going up to people around a roulette table and screaming at everyone to put everything on black. If the ball then lands on a black nunber instead or a red number, does that make them clairvoyant? Nope. Just a guess…
I’m not sure why anyone would give a moments thought to some random guy on the internet yelling “Sell” or “Buy”, just because they say so or they have a hunch.
In stark contrast, if someone provides a logical thesis and data and rationale as to why they expect an outcome, with at least some parameters, and then that us what ends up playing out, then that actually has value. One could even say an analyst like that had a thesis that was “right ” Sadly that is not the case with ole Joe’s megaphone proclamations.
Dan Steffens saying oil shortage and energy stocks going to grow, and just couple weeks ago Josef Schachter saying he was expecting oil prices to possible drop to sub $70 in December or short term and stocks will fall and offer a great entry point
I hate to be purchasing Dan’s picks here after energy has already up big, what if Josef us correct.
Just goes to show how two well known people in their sector just like gold have different views in short term.
Heck Ryan calling Joe clown when Doc has just as negative view as Joe for whatever reasons you have to be respectful of their views.
Market intervention leads to undermining traditional ways of attempting to “predict” future performance due to 3rd party sources being able to inject false variables upon a market. Since the false variables have no natural basis for applying them to a market, and come from an artificial source, there is no way to predict when or how they will be applied, and therefore no way to “predict” future action. We can track historical application of intervention of false variables, but we can not rely that historical application will be anyway consistent with moment to moment application.
One of the purposes of intervention is to convince the “retail investors” (noninsiders) that any efforts to predict future investment success is hopeless, forcing retail to turn over funds to “managed accounts” so Central Banking (Wall Street) has absolute control over markets and pricing. Of course that is illegal but sanctioned by politicians. Corruption is rampant but appears hardly ever to be a campaign issue to impact voters decisions.
It’s an interesting observation on the outlook that Dan Steffens has versus Josef Schachter, but we like both guys and value their input, and like to get a range of different opinions and ideas as to how people are viewing the market. They both laid out their case both, bullish and bearish, and we’ll see which way it ends up shaking out in the energy sector. So far, Dan has called the moves higher in the energy space the last 2 years a bit better, and Josef was bearish during large bull moves to the upside, but again, we like both guys analysis, and that’s what makes a market.
I love Doc but he missed this one. He can hang out with Joe in the clown room. Way too negative on gold and silver in this clown world environment we call an economy.
Also – this weekends lineup stinks. Does Jeff Christian even like gold? Sure doesn’t seem like it. Trading FX is a waste of time too. Moving from one worthless pile of debt to another seems pretty foolish.
I hope energy goes to zero – improve those miner margins quite a bit lol.
We like bringing on guests with different opinions and vantage points (both bullish and bearish), to get a range of ideas on the show. Some will resonnate with people and their biases, and some won’t.
Hey man sorry about my comment about this weekends guests. This is a great site and appreciate y’all’s hard work. This site is a must daily read for me. It’s probably good not to just have an echo chamber here of buy buy buy. Jeff Christian just rubs me the wrong way.
Same Same on feelings for Christian.
Understood Ryan, and thanks for the kind words about the show and for being a regular listener. Yeah, you are not alone in that feedback, but Jeff is a friend of Cory’s and likes our platform too.
We try to get some good candid conversations with him, that are less controversial, and more based around the research the CPM group works on. We realize not everyone is a fan of his opinions, but again just like presenting different vantage points and views on the markets.
There are plenty of times we have on guests with opinions I don’t agree with as we are doing the interview (where I’ve got to hold my tongue), and same thing with Cory, but that’s what makes a market.
Like with music or food or travel, everyone finds value in different places, and beauty is always in the eye of the beholder. We just try to bring on a lot of thought leaders– be they fundamental, quantitative, technical and let listeners decide which ones they resonnate with.
Sometimes it helps crystallize ones own thinking to be faced with a narrative, or information that has been cherry-picked to present a certain thesis, even if that does irritate or rub one the wrong way. Of course there is also no harm in skipping a particular segment or post if it just doesn’t jive. We’ll have plenty more guests on that will take a different angle or theme to balance things out.
does anyone have experience working with Sprott on having them manage a portfolio of Junior and Early Stage Explorers/Developers? Wanted to get some insight/feedback on what you guys have heard or experienced?
Hi Nawanda. Cory and I have a lot of respect for Steve Todoruk over at Sprott. His approach is to get into an exploration story after he sees an impressive discovery hole, and then ride it for the rest of the move higher into resources and a potential takeover.
I’ve also heard good things about Sam Broom (The Nude Investor) at Sprott, for his ability to discern potentially relevant exploration stories that many have overlooked.
Is Birdman back? If so, it should be a fun weekend.
On second thought, I guess it isn’t him. He actually had some smarts.
It’s not Tweety…
Unless I am missing something the general public is unaware of how dire the economic situation is, sentiment is too positive. I think I will wait for weeping and gnashing of teeth before I buy these cheap stocks. The black swans are circling so I am still waiting for a credit crisis and tax loss selling.
Until the general public finally capitulates and gives up on “buy the dip” thinking, and finally they leave the markets in disgust, then the bear market is not done with it’s work.
We are nowhere close to that level of capitulation yet in the general markets, and yes, traders are far too eager to jump right back into momo positions at the first whiff of a favorable narrative. That hasn’t been grinded out of them yet, so the bear will bide it’s time before clawing away any gains once again.
‘History of Asset Bubbles’
Jesse Felder – The Felder Report (11/12/2022)
‘May The Force Be With You’
Jesse Felder – The Felder Report – November 9, 2022
“This trend has now gone so far that some, like hedge fund manager David Einhorn, claim that value investing may, in fact, be dead.”
“I don’t know that it ever comes back. Most of the value investors have been put out of business. Nobody knows what anything is worth.” – @davidein
Kyle Heinemann – The Financial System Is Already Broken – Wait For What’s Coming Next.
I Love Prosperity w/ Jake Ducey – Nov 9, 2022
“In this video, Kyle Heinemann (good friend of Steve Penny and contributor over at the Silver Chartist) breaks down why the financial system has already been broken, and what is coming next. He shares his macroeconomic analysis, where the economy is heading from here, what to expect, and how to prepare for what’s coming next.”
Interesting and disturbing at the same time. However seems consistent with criminal behavior.
This interview needs following up on.
Yeah, I find Kyle to be an interesting thinker and have been following him over at Silver Chartist the last 2 months. He’s Steve Penny’s best bud, but did quite well after the banking reverse repo crisis in 2019 going into the early stage of the pandemic in Feb/Mar 2020 speculating on crypto, but is also a huge fan of precious metals as well as trading general equities markets. His gift seems to be looking at large macro trends unfolding.
The comments in this interview with Jake were thought provoking in that he thinks a market melt-up to new highs the middle of next year, once the Fed indicates they are going to pause, that will be followed by a large deflationary event on record, wiping out most asset classes.
It makes sense that if a big market rally kicked off on the back of the central banks “pause” messaging, that it would gain traction slowly and then all at once. This new wave of buying and bull market action would kick in the fear of missing out from momentum “momo” traders, sucking in all the hedge fund and retail money from the sidelines.
Then as everyone pats themselves on the back about the “new bull market has begun” and new higher highs being achieved, and they are wearing hats celebrating the new levels reached in the S&P and Nasdaq…. that it would be at that moment of peak confidence in the bull…. that the rug will get pulled out from everyone’s feet. That would be the ultimate time to short the general markets, but not until the melt-up has run it’s course.
Right now most are positioned completely opposite of that. People are more hedged than they’ve been in years, and some are playing the volatility instruments, anticipating an imminent crash and deflationary event to play out really soon, and many are out of the markets in cash or are even short the general equity markets.
It would be business as normal for Mr Market to do exactly the opposite of what everyone expects and instead have one more big blow-off top in the middle of next year, sucking in all the capital on the sidelines, and then when everyone finally gets really bullish again, to dash their dreams and bring in the big deflationary rout, once they are more unhedged, and “all in.” If we do see that big melt up and euphoric event the middle of next year, then when it looks too good to be true, I’m going to short the chit out of the general markets.
To his thinking, Wall Street insiders will make sure to get their money out during this melt up, and pass the bags to the hedgies and retail investors, before the major correction so many are expecting. That really would throw off the largest percentage of traders (and algo machine trading) to see a big rally first (instead of a market crash), where the cash comes in off the sidelines for one big parabolic rise of irrational exuberance once the pause is the new message, but is then followed by the big deflationary event.
Definitely an idea to mull over, where after the Fed funds rate hikes are done in Q1, that we get the central bank “pause” narrative for Q2 & Q3, kicking off a huge rally in risk assets of all stripes, and then it all rolls over and gets flushed closer to the end of next year or heading into 2024.
M&A Heats Up as Gold Miners Carve Out a Significant Bottom
David Erfle – Friday November 11, 2022
“In a sector where investor confidence has been extremely low for the past several months, mining companies have begun to re-kindle efforts to explore alliances and partnerships to bring promising projects online and share the risk between parties.”
“In late May, South African gold miner Gold Fields (GFI) announced it was buying Canada’s Yamana Gold (AUY) in an all-share deal worth $6.7 billion, which would have made it the world’s fourth largest gold producer. But backlash regarding the deal came immediately from Gold Fields investor Redwheel, who called for the transaction to be scrapped in June.”
“Fast forward to last Friday. As the gold price began to move sharply higher, Yamana received an unsolicited offer from Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) and Pan American Silver (PAAS) to acquire the company in a near $5 billion deal.”
“With mining space M&A deals typically coming in bunches, on Thursday morning the precious metal’s royalty space announced a friendly merger as well. Canada’s Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp (TFPM) and Maverix Metals Inc (MMX) agreed to a friendly combination in which Triple Flag will acquire Maverix for cash and shares valued at US$3.92/sh, at 10% premium to Maverix’s share price and valuing Maverix at US$606 million.”
“During this time, the gold price has risen more than $130 over the past five Comex trading sessions, culminating with a CPI data released yesterday that came in well under estimates…”
I spent some time on yesterday’s blog from Craig Hemke reviewing the series of M&A deals we’ve seen out of the royalty space the last few years, touching up on the takeovers of Golden Valley / Abitibi Royalties by Gold Royalty, the takeover of Ely Gold Royalty by Gold Royalty, the failed attempt by Gold Royalty to takeover Elemental… leading instead to a different transaction where Elemental & Altus Royalty merged, and the recent takeovers of my 2 favorite royalty companies… Nomad by Sandstorm, and now Maverix by Triple Flag.
Personally, I’ve still got a solid position in Sandstorm (now with the assets of both Nomad and Basecore Royalty inside them), a heavier weighted position to Maverix (converting over to Triple Flag in this new combined company), as well as Metalla, and I’ve started a new position in EMX Royalty recently,.
However, now I wonder when the other 2 may get nabbed as the space is getting consolidated very quickly. I could see either Franco Nevada or Altius Minerals having a go at EMX Royalty, and I’m not sure who the suitor for Metalla could be (Wheaton? Royal Gold? Osisko?). There is also Vox as another junior royalty company that may get scooped up soon (maybe by Gold Royalty Corp?). Then further down the food chain… Orogen Royalties, Empress Royalty, and Star Royalties. Who will get taken out next?
–> Anyway, people like to postulate constantly about M&A in the sector, and keep asking when we’ll see more deals. Well the “A” is for acquisitions, and there are about a dozen royalty companies that have put out news on key acquisitions they’ve made to add assets to their portfolios. The “M” is for mergers and we’ve seen about a half dozen of them spring up in the recent past.
I keep wondering, “Dang… don’t you guys hold any royalty companies?” There have been a crapload of M&A transactions in the royalties subsector almost every few months for anyone that was in position with the quality Jr royalty companies.
Excellent thoughts about the royalty sector. My dark horse royalty holdings are Vulcan, Electric, Empress, and TNR.
Good thoughts Jetty, and yeah we need to reach back out to Brendan at Electric Royalties for an update soon. I have been working on getting Alex on from Empress soon, just working out the scheduling. I’ve never heard of Vulcan or TNR, so thanksfor sharing those, and will check them out.
Pan American and Agnico Team Up for Yamana
Adrian Day – Streetwise Reports (11/7/22)
Two of the companies on our list, Pan American Silver Corp.(PAAS:TSX – PAAS:NASDAQ) and
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. (AEM:TSX – AEM:NYSE), have joined forces to offer US$4.8 billion in cash and stock in an effort to outbid Gold Fields Ltd. (GFI:NYSE; GFI:JSE) for Yamana Gold Inc. (YRI:TSX – AUY:NYSE)
“Three of the four involved companies are clear winners: Yamana gets a higher bid, while Gold Fields avoids the potential embarrassment of its own shareholders voting down the deal, which seems more than a remote possibility. It also collects a US$300 million break fee.”
“Agnico gains 50% of its prize mine, Malartic, that it does not already own, resulting in obvious synergies as well as giving it full ownership of Canada’s top gold mine. Agnico will also get Yamana’s other Canadian project, Wasamac. It is paying above NAV for the assets, a fairly hefty price, and it is dilutive to its NAV and cash flow but a prize worth having.”
“More uncertain is what this means for Pan American. Not surprisingly, it was the only one of the four stocks that fell Friday after the transaction was announced. Stock of acquiring companies often fall. It is arguably paying a high price for increased exposure to Latin America, including two new countries in which it does not already operate (Chile and Brazil), adding to complexities for a company that has not outshone itself in operations recently.”
Ending the Ukraine War will affect Energy and PMs. But how?
Gen. Milley wants ceasefire … (and more).
Hi BDC, I am of the opinion that ending the war in Ukraine will have a positive effect for investors and you should expect a very strong market rally across the board. DT
Wars are easy to start but hard to stop just look at the time they spent negotiating the size of the conference table after The Vietnam War. It was different in Afghanistan all The US had to do was withdraw the troops. For this war to end it will require negotiations between several World powers who all have nuclear weapons, and to disarm Eastern Europe of nuclear weapons as required by The Minsk Agreement. Ukraine will lose territory and these divisions will take a lot of twists and turns before there is a treaty. Lots of work and time will be spent on the agenda before a deal gets done. Lots! DT
You said it, DT. I’ve followed this Ukraine fiasco from back before 2014, when the American State Department ran the Maidan Coup. Much of the earlier chaos was based upon Color Revolutions and ‘Otpor!’ (Balkens). All of it, including Putin, may be part of a Grand Reset Design.
In any case, peace should free up energy markets, with whatever that means for PMs. Current Dollar weakness is signalling something just over the horizon, whether daylight, darkness, or twilight head-fake. – BDC
Expert Says Now ‘Is a Great Place To Load up on Silver and Silver Investments’
Clive Maund – Streetwise Reports (11/8/22)
“On the 1-year silver chart, we can see how the price dropped back in the summer. The breach of the support in the US$22 area was somewhat surprising but was due to a combination of a strongly rising dollar, shown at the top of this chart, with a trend of rising rates in the U.S.”
“However, since mid-July, the price has marked out a base pattern that approximates to a Head-and-Shoulders bottom or Triple Bottom, and the duration of this pattern has allowed time for the 200-day moving average to drop down closer to the price and for downside momentum to drop out as shown by the MACD indicator, making it more likely that a rally will develop and it should be noted that if such a rally develops as a result of the dollar breaking down from its parabolic uptrend, it could be a scorcher that makes light of overhead resistance.”
“On silver’s latest 4-month chart, we can see the large white candle that formed on Friday on strong volume and drove the Accumulation line sharply higher, which is a positive sign. This move, which coincided with a large gain by gold and a heavy drop in the dollar, brought the price up into resistance at the upper boundary of the recent trading range.”
I believe Clive Maund likes Santacruz Silver Mining; (SCZ) I saw one of his charts about four weeks ago where he figured it would break out, it took a little longer. DT
The mining stock influencer Gold Ventures, active on Twitter, is a big fan of Santacruz Silver lately as well.
As mentioned on Friday when SCZ was brought up, I’ve still got a pretty good position in Santacruz Silver. Over the last few years I’ve had a number of solid swing-trades in it around the periphery of the core position, but have maintained a very positive green position in the stock for some time. Santacruz is one of the stocks I’ve not had to fret over for the last few years, as it has blasted higher and held onto most of those gains, instead of falling apart like so many other junior producers, developers, and explorers.
I’m still curious to see how things look after a full year of production in 2023 from all the new mines, mills, and development projects that SCZ acquired from Glencore, to get a sense of what to expect moving forward. Regardless, I already liked the company back when they only had 2 small mines, and then eventually ratcheted things down to just the 1 Zimapan mine (prior to the recent transformational acquisition).
All things considered, I still believe Santacruz is trading at a stark discount to the value of all their resources in the ground, potential increased production profile, all their sunk costs in infrastructure and operating mines, development work and derisking, and even now having their own power plants. That is not really fairly reflected in their current market cap, but that is also the case for so many different producers and developers at present, so par for course in this brave new world. Over the next year or so, we’ll see if those combined company assets get valued in a bigger way by the market, and what kind of optionality and torque they may also have to rising silver/lead/zinc prices.
People like to dream of 10-baggers, but Santacruz has been a legit 10-bagger (even more than that if actively traded), and it wasn’t just a speculative drill play, but rather, one of the “best of the worst” higher margin silver/lead/zinc producers, that got fiscally responsible, divested some non-core projects to pay down debt, reduced down their costs through improving mining conditions, and made some wise acquisitions.
That is a management team that is delivering value creation for shareholders. I wish that was more common, but it stands in stark contrast to so many junior PM companies, because most simply dilute down existing shareholders and destroy capital not creating much value over time.
From a technical perspective (SCZ) Santacruz Silver has had a pretty epic run since mid 2019, going up more than 10x, and again, has been able to hold onto those gains, unlike so many juniors in the PM sector. It appears that the pricing respects the 200 day SMA, and that after putting in a high-water mark at $0.58 in May of 2021, that it may be forming a rounded cup-like bottom up to where it is trending currently at $0.51. If that is the case and it can tack on another $0.07-$0.08 soon, then pullback for a bit (maybe a few months, then it could really blast higher after that pause that refreshes, and breakout into the $0.60s and $0.70s in short order after that.
I got the jitters with jurisdiction risk in South America and sold my silver stocks(SCZ, AGX) for small gains. But still watching them closely.
There are so many opportunities in N.A. that it doesn’t seem necessary to take on what feels like more risk.
Yes, Mexico is not without some risk, but it’s not nearly as bad as much of Central and South America. If people want exposure to Silver, the vast majority of the companies are in Latin America. Sure there are a few good ones in the US and Canada and Australia, but the vast majority of the Silver companies are in Mexico and Bolivia, and I’d rather be in those, than the ones in Peru, Chile, Ecuador, etc….
Also, there are companies like Santacruz, Impact Silver, Avino, First Majestic, Endeavour, Pan American, etc… that have been producing in Mexico and working with local teams for over a decade, and have long-standing relationships, so in that sense they are more known entities with a good track record.
Bolivia has a long tradition of Silver/Tin/Zinc/Lead production; most famously the Potosi mine and district. Today you have companies like Andean Precious Metals and Santacruz Silver (formerly Glencore assets) producing there, and companies like New Pacific Metals, Eloro, Silver Elephant, and Whitehorse Gold exploring for Silver and base metals there. These areas are just more prolific with their mineral endowments than many other areas.
Personally I’ve diversified my Silver exposure into Canada with Dolly Varden, Metallic Minerals, previously Alexco (now in Hecla), and in the US through Hecla, Coeur, Blackrock Silver and Summa Silver. In addition, despite all the handwringing about China, I find Silvercorp to be one of the best-in-class silver/gold/zinc/lead producers, with some of the lowest costs in the sector, and again with over a decade of successful production and operations history there.
I’ve got some other companies with Latin American exposure down in South America too, but the vast majority of my silver producers, developers, or explorers have some or total exposure to Mexico. That is just where the silver is.
Also, when one thinks of the companies that have really knocked it out of the park as far as exploration in Silver, it would be companies like Mag Silver or Silvercrest, and more recently Vizsla Silver and Silver Tiger, and they are all in Mexico.
I’d submit that Blackrock Silver and Summa Silver have hit repeated impressive drill hits in the Tonopah, Nevada area though, and that is a much safer jurisdiction, and both their projects will likely be consolidated by one of the majors (maybe First Majestic) at one point down the road. Coeur has their Nevada exposure too. There are also all the projects in the Silver Valley of Idaho (like Hecla, Amercias Gold & Silver, Silver Hammer, Bunker Hill, etc…).
In Canada, Dolly Varden, Alexco, and Metallic Minerals have been leading the charge with bonanza grade drill hits, but now Hecla has Alexco’s property, so it won’t have as much leverage to exploration news. There are some of the companies in Canada operating over in the Cobalt camps of Ontario with high grade over narrow intercepts, like Canada Silver Cobalt, Brixton’s Langis/Hudon Bay project, or Kuya’s Silver King project, etc… but none of them have really moved the ball down the field much with relation to those deposits for quite some time.
One of the only real outliers that has made consistent bonanza grade drill hits outside of Mexico, the US, and Canada is Abrasilver in Argentina, or some of the Bolivian companies mentioned above in the other post.
Hi Ex, Influencer is one of those new words that sound fancy but ring hollow, much like my “forever home”. My neighbor (female) tells us all that she is an influencer, I call her skeltor because she is so skinny. She has tattoos all over her body, some in places you can’t imagine but she fools some people by being up to-date with all the trends and fashions. It’s nice to just stop and see how daily existence is changing in our society. DT
Agreed DT, that the only constant is change…
Yeah the term “influencer” has gained traction for online thought leaders that garner a following for their opinions and information shared, but is just the latest in the everchanging memes and trends of the current age.
Some online “influencers” have YouTube channels, or popular Twitter/Instagram/Ticktock feeds, or podcasts, or radio programs, or websites, or are just popular users in chat forums like Reddit or even site specific ones. I’d submit we’d probably fall in that category here at the KER, as do many of our guests and also you key contributors here on the forum. Haha! 😁
As for the “influencer” Gold Ventures, I don’t know much about him personally and don’t have an opinion really, but know he has a lot of followers, and similar to a newsletter writer, if he adds or sells a company in his porfolio, it often creates some short term volume.
For example, when he sold out of Defiance Silver it created a mini selling wave in the stock (which I used as an opportunity to get a position started once again). Conversely, when he touted Snowline Gold, Santacruz Silver, and Outcrop Silver it created some solid buying volume. I see people on ceo ca, youtube, and twitter discussing G.V. so he is having an influence. I checked out his portfolio listing somewhat recently out of curiosity, just to see where he had the heaviest weighting.
Among other things, the weekly GDX bull hammer of one week ago should have turned observers bullish.
Gold has put in a convincing major low on the best volume since the first week of March.
To the bears and even neutral people around here, I told you so for months. SILJ:GDX bottomed many months ago and then took off over 30% while SILJ and GDX priced in dollars were both still falling. That action was unusual and BULLISH and I kept pointing it out while most doubted it and every other obvious positive development.
For investors (as opposed to traders) Joe’s SELL, SELL, SELL calls were buying opportunities ONLY because they came on severe down days. His advice was no different than telling people to buy a BIG top.
SLV:GLD just painted an inside week following a bullish engulfing week. That’s bullish.
Oops that gold chart shouldn’t have been there.
For the first time since mid June, silver is back above its important highs of 2008 and 2016.
Silver also took back its 40 week MA for the first time since losing it in April and did so on its best volume in 17 months.
Like SILJ, silver finished the week well above its weekly Bollinger Band. That’s bullish since doing so means that it was strong enough to overcome the selling that takes place when the upper BB is reached.
The pattern continues to follow us going higher this month and finishing strong! We will have possibly follow through in December maybe a week or two max and then we will print a red monthly candle for xau/hui/gdx/ and many miners. This is the chat green and Matthew have had back and forth. From one perspective he speaks of the moving averages and from and other he speaks of strength and divergence within the miners and every pullback will be a buys green has said that as well.
You know my stance i have shown my chart long long ago with the monthly xau/hui and it remains bullish. This move is still stealth like, and will keep perma bulls out as mentioned and everyone else in denial. We do have a drop which Matthew mentioned will be “scary” but it will be a buy.
I will end with docs conservative view and next spring/summer breakout as well as Roy and his scare tactics lol, will have you losing out on these opportunities to make coin but will also have you get once last chance to purchase breakout level but not “lower”.
I believe greens dream of buying Brixton at .8/.09 level which I have buy order will not materialize. But .15 will be filled as a monthly gap thank me now it’s a free bee 🙂
Thanks for sharing your technical outlook Glenfidish, and yes, we have had a lot of great technical insights shared by both Matthew and Greenspansconscience for some time now, as well as regular contributions from BDC and Dan Calgary on the technical side. We’ll be speaking to Doc about this recent pop in the PMs earlier next week and get his input as well, from a longer term trend perspective.
Good stuff guys, and nice to get the range of viewpoints and key technical factors that folks are watching on the charts.
You as well for all your post and contributions. I do enjoy your video links as i do with others.
Thanks amigo. Looking forward to more green days, weeks, and minths in the sector. Cheers!
Glenfidish, Matthew and others have Brixton well covered but really need you to focus on IAG and explain their story since nobody else seems interested in it.
It’s been a long time since I owned or followed IAG but I can say that it is technically behaving very bullishly. The move so far has been powerful and impulsive but is daily overbought so it could easily begin a pullback within a week (probably along with the whole sector). I have no plans to buy it but consider it a buy on a good pullback, scarier the better.
well said matthew and thanks for the charts. That monthly chart is very telling.
i will only respond this one time with you since you have some type of personal thing with iamgold and have been repeatedly at the forefront with it.
Iamgolds big 4 institutions alone will make sure to turn this ship around and they have begun to do so with the most recent let go of directors and interim ceo.
with the current sale of rosebel and proceeds of $360 million in cash and take over of lease equipment at 40 million, the cash raised is an a plus in my books and ready to be put on its book after the new year when regulatory body approves.
The current debt iamgold has is no different then the debt kinross, barrick and so many more mid/large cap companies have. The obligation is interest payment and that is a no brainer. Iamgold comtinues to produce roughly 550,000-600,000 this year. It latest release beat analyst expecations by 17% a huge miss by analyst probably aslo why its outperforming many of its peers.
With its enourmous cash on hand of 500,000 roughly and 360,000 comin on board soon, you can see why the financing wont be as big an issue as many think. They will manage to raise the rest of the cash no doubt and im sure without affecting the core assets.
Iamgold will turn into a large producing companyat 1 million plus by 2024/2025 at the meat of the gold bull. You cant ever discount anything but i feel good about my chances and the assets we have speak loud for themsleves.
With cote high margin project to come on board and be a world class leader in equipment and machinery being used, i would classify iamgold ahead of the pack in some regards with future. as you probably know they will be running man less trucks and equipment.
with approximately 860, million cash by first quarter 2023 and 1 year away from production at that point you can see why iamgold is going to move before the production date imo.
esskane and westwood will hold the fort combined with approx 450,000-475,000 next year..
with cote coming on board the additional 500,000 will allow iamgold to nearly reach its 1 million an ounce per year..the icing on the cake should come from boto project and its development which will eventually tip us at over 1.1/1.2 million
getting this ship on track is all that is needed and funding if needed can always come from the huge exploration land packages they have or private placement. i dont consider 500 shares outstanding to be huge when eventually we will be producing like 1 million plus at low cost.
by the way 1.2 or 1.3 billion revised to build a plant is the new norm.. inflation will make gold and silver reverse to the means and a repricing of the metals is and will happen in any due time.
Glenn, comprehensive and eye opening details on IMG, much appreciated.
thank you brumple
I think this has been Glenster’s longest post… and I enjoyed it. Thanks.
The USD topped at a steeply rising fork resistance that it last engaged 5.5 years ago:
The dollar topped at speed line and MA related resistance and is now suddenly sitting on .382 Fibonacci fan support (which won’t hold):
David Brady shares all kinds of interesting insights over at Steve Penny’s website at TheSilverChartist, and there was something he posted yesterday that really sums things up well. Here are just the opening paragraphs of a longer piece he wrote, but definitely some good food for thought for investors to consider as it relates to trading psychology, recency bias, and technical analysis.
Everything Is Pointing Higher, For Now
By David Brady, 11/12/22
“It is human nature that when a definitive trend occurs, that they will believe it will continue indefinitely and it’s only when it’s blatantly obvious to the contrary do they change their minds.”
“This can be observed best in financial markets. When Gold fell to 1045 in 2015, 1124 in 2016, 1167 in 2018, 1450 in 2020, and now 1618, people were inclined to believe that the downward trend would continue indefinitely.”
“Gold rallied from 1045 in 2015 to 1377 in 2016. Gold rallied from 1124 to 1369 in 2018. Gold rallied from 1167 in 2018 to 1700 in March 2020. Gold rallied from 1450 in March 2020 to a record high of 2089 in August 2020. Despite the massive rallies post each low, people still believe prices are going lower after they have already fallen significantly, even when the risk-reward is clearly skewed in the other direction….”
I don’t know Joe, but I don’t discount him yet. He wanted to accumulate during tax loss selling. There may be one more down leg. Even if Gold only goes to 1599 combined with a liquidity crisis, it could mean bigger miner discounts. I am going to wait two to four weeks.
I think we are living through a distinct era of American history. It is quite an exciting time to be alive. We have witnessed a Big Bull Market in stocks and now we are seeing the destruction of the same coupled with a destruction of the bond market due to numerous bubbles caused by excessive money printing.
We are also living through an era of open government corruption unlike anything that has happened since the Harding Scandals of the 1920’s.
We are witnessing the end of empire for America and the demise and de-industrialization of Europe.
We are also seeing this vacuum in World affairs being filled by the positioning of China, India, and Russia as the World goes from a unipolar era to a mega polar one.
The effects of all this are too hard to judge as to how it will change daily life for all the citizens of the world as that is still happening. The end result is sure to change our habits and ideas about life. DT
Interesting… never seen ASA before.
I’ve posted it many times due to its composition (which is appealing to me) but I can see how one could have missed it. Here’s one that I posted about 16 months ago:
And one that I posted recently:
Thanks Matthew. Yes here are the holdings and it is a very different kind of portfolio makeup than other funds or ETFs, this one being a close-ended fund.
ASA Gold & Precious Metals Holdings – Ticker – % of NAV
Orla Mining Ltd OLA CN 8.2%
Aya Gold & Silver Inc AYA CN 4.9%
Endeavour Mining EDV CT 4.5%
Emerald Resources EMR AU 4.1%
SSR Mining Inc SSRM 4.1%
G Mining Ventures Inc GMIN CN 3.9%
Perseus Mining Ltd PRU AU 3.7%
Barrick Gold Corp GOLD 3.5%
Predictive Discovery PDI AU 3.4%
Alamos Gold Inc AGI 3.1%
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd AEM 3.0%
Anglogold Ashant – Adr ANG SJ 2.9%
Gold Fields Ltd-Adr GFI 2.8%
Arizona Metals Corp AMC CN 2.7%
Calibre Mining Corp CXBSR CN 2.7%
B2Gold Corp BTO CT 2.3%
Prime Mining PRYM CN 2.1%
Probe Metals Inc PRB CN 2.1%
Discovery Silver Corp DSV CN 1.8%
Marathon Gold Corp MOZ CN 1.7%
Red Dirt Metals Cvt RDT AU 1.6%
Benchmark Metals Inc BNCH CN 1.5%
Bellevue Gold Ltd BGL AU 1.5%
Aya Gold & Silver Inc Wrnt AYA CN 1.5%
Thesis Gold Inc TAU CN 1.3%
Liberty Gold Corp-Plc LGD CN 1.3%
Skeena Resources Ltd SKE CN 1.1%
Gogold Resources Inc GGD CN 1.1%
Millennial Precious Metals MPM CN 1.1%
Silver Mountain Resources Inc AGMR CN 0.9%
Sibanye Stillwater- Adr SSW SJ 0.9%
Cygnus Gold Ltd CY5 AU 0.9%
O3 Mining Inc OIII CN 0.8%
Osino Resources OSI CN 0.8%
Auteco Minerals Ltd AUT AU 0.8%
Silver Tiger Metals SLVR CN 0.8%
Net Cash Or Equivalent Cash 0.7%
Max Resource Corp MAX CN 0.7%
Americas Gold & Silver Corp USA 0.7%
Pan Global Resources PGZ CN 0.6%
Integra Resources Corp ITR CN 0.6%
Sable Resources Ltd SAE CN 0.6%
Pantoro Ltd PNR AU 0.6%
Bunker Hill Mining Corp BNKR CN 0.6%
Emerita Resources EMOT CN 0.5%
Westhaven Gold Corp WHN CN 0.5%
Adventus Mining Corp ADZN CN 0.5%
Highgold Mining Inc HIGH CN 0.5%
Roscan Gold Corp ROS CN 0.5%
Lotus Gold Corp LOTU CN 0.5%
Nighthawk Gold Corp NHK CN 0.5%
Castile Resources CST AU 0.4%
Andean Precious Metals APM CN 0.4%
Newcore Gold Ltd NCAU CN 0.4%
Mawson Resources Ltd MAW CN 0.4%
Talisker Resources Ltd TSK CN 0.3%
Tdg Gold Corp TDG CN 0.3%
Alicanto Minerals Ltd AQI AU 0.3%
Desert Gold Ventures Inc DAU CN 0.3%
Geopacific Resources Ltd GPR AU 0.3%
Dacian Gold Ltd DCN AU 0.3%
Euro Sun Mining Inc ESM CN 0.3%
Barton Gold Holdings BGD AU 0.3%
Red Dirt Metals Wrnt RDT AU 0.3%
American Pacific Mining USGD CN 0.3%
Prodigy Gold Nl PRX AU 0.2%
Gold Mountain Mining GMTN CN 0.2%
Los Cerros Ltd LCL CN 0.2%
Atex Resources Inc ATX CN 0.1%
Angel Wing Metals Inc AWM CN 0.1%
Monarch Mining Corp GBAR CN 0.1%
Thesis Gold Inc Wrnt TAU CN 0.1%
Lahontan Gold Corp LAHO CN 0.1%
Prime Mining Wrnt PRYM CN 0.1%
Marathon Gold Corp Wrnt MOZ CN 0.1%
Bellavista Resources BVRZZ AU 0.1%
Pan American Silver Cvt PAAS 0.0%
Huntsman Exploration HMAN CN 0.0%
That was taken from their September 2022 fact sheet, but could have adjusted slightly over the last 2 months.
The USD index has definitely displayed a sudden loss of upside momentum, and maybe sharing a rolling over and is oversold in the short term…………………….also respecting the 50 month MA since 2014, with only two dips below, then resumption of uptrend…………50 month MA is still trending up !
Tea leaves, tell me a consolidation is in store for the USD as it’s pays attention to rate hikes over the next quarter or so and decides what to do…………. and a good sign that PM’s have put in a medium term bottom……with 1618 as strong support….and 1800 as serious resistance……….we need more chart time for longer term thinking……….but a great short term trade………….sure looks like many PM stocks have found their bottoms…………..good for nibbling ! GLTA
Ira Epstein has a free special report “currency chart analysis” this weekend, for those interested………….go to his website and click research !
There will obviously be bounces along the way but I think the dollar is going much lower for a long time.
Matthew inagree with the bounces! I might differ from you when i say the dollar will make one more possibly two more higher highs which won’t affect the miners going to new lows.. I would say one more high comfortably to get “ big money” out of that game and retail to suck it up. Just my thoughts.
Curious to see if you feel the same 🙂
I think we’ve seen the final high for the dollar for at least months and probably years.
Silver:Gold at resistance:
The Canadian dollar is perfectly confirming the low in our miners.
+10 rarity 💪
Bob Moriarty: It’s Time To Literally Make Your Retirement
w/ Goldfinger (Robert Sinn) – 11-10-2022
“In this month’s conversation with 321gold founder Bob Moriarty we focused on the big turnaround in precious metals and mining stocks. Gold is up more than $100/oz in the last few days and Bob is of the opinion that the pervasive fear in the precious metals mining sector offers the opportunity of a lifetime. In his words “it’s time to literally make your retirement” by investing in these beaten down stocks. He also has a variant view of how the tax loss selling season in junior mining stocks will play out this year. Without further ado, Energy & Gold’s November conversation with Bob Moriarty…”
Silver is going to beat commodities in general and has been a buy versus the CRB since July:
The same goes for silver versus the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index:
XAU:CRB has bottomed too…
It bottomed at big fork supports (monthly):
Friday’s NatGas action explained?
Houston, TX, November 11, 2022 – In response to false information circulated today about the restart of Freeport LNG’s liquefaction facility, the company provides the following statement:
Freeport LNG has not made an any public statements today regarding the restart of our liquefaction facility. Any Tweets and/or posts on Freeport LNG branded letterhead that may have been obtained or published, are reporting false information and are not legitimate, official public information from Freeport LNG.
Short via KOLD. Close stop.
Freeport LNG has been less than forthcoming with news in the past, and a close read of the above could land them in legal trouble if untrue — whether spoofed or not.
IPT doubled versus NEM in a short time during the summer and is now ready to do it again but this time will be more impressive since both will be rising in dollars as it does so.
Green, but Emerita and Nine Mile up and all others together are -$200. Same algos, same Monday, same range bound and same intervention.
Brixton will probably need to consolidate for a month or so before it begins another leg higher. I am not expecting a major drop at all but instead a nice sideways to up consolidation. Buy on any weakness IMO, with any tag of the 20 dma being a strong buy.
Whether it goes lower in the short term or not, I think it will manage to go higher than its recent high before it takes a break that lasts a month.
Well now we know why GASX hasn’t been going higher despite all the good news….another red light special financing for all of the CEO’s family and friends
Yep, that financing in GASX wasn’t well received by the market today, down 12% on the day. I sold my position in it a few months back, but after the recent carnage, and especially if it continues, it may be time to take another stab at NG Energy for the potential upside as more of their nat gas wells come online over the next 3-6 months. I love a good market rout for accumulating unloved growth stories.
Based on the SEDI filings it looks like ole’ Frank Giustra was the one selling GASX today, and may have accounted for the liquidation in shareprice.
Filed 2022-11-14 12:52
Tx date 2022-11-11 $GASX
NG Energy International Corp. Giustra, Frank
3 – 10% Security Holder of Issuer
Holder: Modern Farmer Media Inc. (Indirect Ownership)
10 – Acquisition or disposition in the public market $-91,512.56
Dollar Index : Fall 2022 : Tumbling Down
Turn? Much Deeper?