Craig Hemke – Macrocast 2023 – One Step Beyond
Craig Hemke, Founder and Editor of TF Metals Report, joins us to reflect on the continued bounce in the precious metals to start the year, and shares some key themes from his Macrocast 2023: One Step Beyond forecast (linked below this interview).
We start off discussing the pop in gold and silver and the PM mining stocks the first 2 days of 2023, which was a continuation of the trend we’ve seen the last few months. Next we shifted into reviewing how markets like the US dollar and bonds / interest rates played out in 2022, and how they could be setting up for 2023. Some of the trends discussed hinge upon expectations around inflation, data stacking up for a growing recession, labor trends, and the potential for a quicker than expected shift by the Fed to rate cuts the middle to end of next year.
Craig emphasized it is a year that could be much like 2019, where it will be wise to be patient, block out a lot of the main stream financial media noise, and focus on what actually plays out as things evolve into the middle of the year to come.
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Click here to visit Craig’s site – TF Metals Report
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https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/11886/macrocast-2023-one-step-beyond
I bought more SILJ and IPT today. I wasn’t planning on more IPT but the drop to its KAMA at .33 was appealing (I was filled at .335, .34 and. 345 for an average price of .3403).
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IPT.V&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p31787634846&a=1286177532
Mixed bag opening with BBB the worst. What do they know. Possible green day but have to wait until close. All red days for the year, so far.
BBB is a super strong buy here. That being said, it appears to want to tag the rising 50 day MA before it can move higher, so maybe it hits .23 in the near term. BBB.V technical action has been absolutely stellar, and I do not expect any deviation from that for the remainder of the bull, which I do not believe will last beyond early 2025.
There are no guarantees of course. Do your own diligence. But if you believe in the bull, any tag or close below the 50 dma should be reversed extremely quickly IMO. Buying low within the context of an extremely strong uptrend is a speculator’s dream.
Look at the daily chart of BBB with 500 day bollinger bands (500,2) and you will see why BBB has run into some resistance. I am expecting it to launch itself off of the rising 50 dma.
Magna Mining has taken over as best performer in my portfolio, but due to having a good day yesterday, it has taken over as the worst of day today. BBB is barely positive after this weeks action, so I am concentrating on ones that are doing better like Magna, i-80, Fission 3.0, and Surge Battery. When they walk those profits back or I take them, then I will look at the flavor of the week. Seems to be the only thing that works. A lot of charts look good in the explorers until they don’t. Will see … but thanks. (Might add, there are several in my portfolio that have had golden crosses, but that is only a sell trigger.) Just me.
I agree. BBB went up 180% since July and is acting just fine. I bought a tiny bit today at .245 but agree that it could easily go lower.
I bought quite a bit more SILJ today as it filled its opening gap (best price today: 10.97 Average: 11.03 Currently: 11.40).
Matthew:
Silj looks good as it has been on an upward trajectory since late September. Today got a pop also. Good choices.
“The Fed is never right about anything”, hahaha, no kidding! They are so wrong that they have to be doing it all on purpose.
Just a reminder that these crooks are all educated by prestigious institutions that are generally revered by the great unwashed. I say that all their motivations are towards the survival of their own selves and the banks they revere.
My thinking is that if the Fed is always wrong, their agenda is different than we think.
Being fans of Volker I think their primary goal is to keep the price of gold down as much as they can, nothing else matters. BTW, they are failing on that too!
It is as if they own each and every dollar in circulation and they want them back after giving them away for a decade.
Yes. Larry Summer wrote a paper back in the late 80s or 90s saying the Fed had to discount gold in public in order to protect the “unbacked” fiat currency. The Bernank carried through with that by taking every public opportunity to call gold an archaic relic. That has been carried over the last 30+ years and probably delayed the process in the US of the failure of the Dollar, but not so much in the rest of the World. Holding the status of Reserve Currency has aided in the deception, but they abused the privilege so much that the whole phony system that resulted in the massive transfer of wealth and unpayable debt is coming to an end.
Looking in retrospect at the whole process including Larry Summers White Paper, it appears the only conclusion we can make about the Privately owned Fed, that their goal has and always been the stealing of the US Treasury for Corporate and Banking interests and they never intended to make a safer economy for the US. (It could be after Volker pulled the economy out in the past, that they made sure the debt was so overwhelming “a Volker type” couldn’t do it again without destroying everything. And the destruction of everything is the goal as the Banks come out on top.)
+1
Defiance, DEF, showing that the land claim against the company is probably bogus and the stock price belongs where it was many months ago, IMHO.
Agreed Dan.
Does anyone do technical analysis on the Gold Silver ratio? I can’t imagine it will return to 95, but it does appear to be going up.
CDNX, looks friggin’ bullish to me!
CDNX one month chart, I hope this week ends at the Jan 3rd high or higher by EOD. Higher lows and maybe higher highs shortly.
The CDNX did close above it’s Tuesday close and it’s 50 DMA… nice!;-D
Both EXK and AG are acting sick relative to the rest of the sector.
AG should be hitting $11, not struggling to break above $9 as it is currently.
It is so frustrating to see these silver miners underperform the metal so dramatically at precisely the time you would think they should be taking off on a relative basis.
Maybe Mexico is planning to nationalize its mines soon, or both EXK and AG are getting ready to dilute or make an acquisition. There is very little other explanation. There are probably loads of people who are selling these two right now for their pathetic risk adjusted performance and getting into something that is actually outperforming.
AG has a 3 week window to start moving IMO, otherwise it is never breaking above $10 in the near term. A break past $10 would then only come in May or maybe even late 2023/early 2024. So god damned frustrating.
Everything else across the metals sector is breaking above their 50 week MAs as we speak or has already done so weeks ago (e.g. Hecla).
Fear not, good times are imminent for those laggards. It was just this morning that SILJ finally took out its high of a month ago so it has joined GDX, GDXJ, GOEX, SIL, etc. in that regard. AG has yet to do so and that looks like an opportunity considering that good-looking multi month base it has formed…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AG&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=13&id=p81695140457&a=1323717277
I believe those lagging silver miners have somewhat corked the whole sector but now they will uncork it.
Hi Matthew, Yes! I wondered why PAAS is not reacting the way some senior gold miners are. I believe they will catch up. Not selling PAAS until it hits $50
Hi CJ, PAAS looks quite appealing! ⌛
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PAAS&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p88729141664&a=1323725214
PAAS is much more mature technically than the rest of the sector (check out the very long term moving averages like the 600 WMA). In a sense, its already had it’s run, so to speak. It’s very similar to NEM in that sense. While I think it will do very well, it’s not going to perform like a mid-tier producer from here on out IMO. That being said, could it get to $100 in a bubble mania? why not.
I don’t own PAAS but it looks superb. The recent low was the type that only happens every several years. The lows of 2016 and 2019 were similar but inferior in terms of potential upside to follow.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PAAS&p=W&yr=4&mn=2&dy=0&id=p97161448051&a=1323725214
Two months ago I said that silver would make quick work of the 100 WMA after it got through the 600 WMA and that’s what has happened. You gave me a 1 percent chance of being right. Yesterday’s low btw amounted to a successful backtest of the 100 WMA.
After a 42 percent move in 18 weeks silver has earned any rest that it might take now.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=W&yr=6&mn=11&dy=0&id=p58727350415&a=501194637
Senior miners should not be expected to perform like mid tiers just as mid tiers shouldn’t be expected to perform like juniors.
Not sure why you are calling me out for my call re: the 100 WMA. It is backed by tons of empirical evidence, and I would still make that same call. It is exceptionally rare to get a move like this once the 100 WMA turns down, especially with the distance between the 100 and 200 WMAs.
You made loads of terrible calls all the way down, but I am not holding that against you.
I don’t hold it against you. I brought it up because you gave me a one percent chance of being right.
Silver has never looked so beautiful
Based on that 40 yr monthly chart, silver is at the ground floor based on stochastics
I agree and would emphasize NEVER.
Looks like everything wants to go up. BABA back above 50 week MA
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BABA&p=W&yr=3&mn=8&dy=0&id=t9704761338c&r=1673026204325&cmd=print
The banks are outperforming stocks:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=KBE%3ASPY&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p21485823468&a=1312159218
Probably just The Fed Governors buying. 😎
DOC in November mentioned January will be the tell-tale whether these moves are legit or not. It appears that they are.
CaliJoe – Stay tuned for the weekend show, where we are featuring Doc and he’ll be expanding on this outlook for the medium term and longer term in more detail.
Someone mentioned AG and EXK. They are on my radar but will add only on corrective days. I have starter position in both of them. Gold miners doing a bit better than silver stocks. I think AG will reclaim it’s lost glory at $22 lol
THE NEW……………….. FREAKY FRIDAY………………. NEW YEAR…….. Same stuff…….