Craig Hemke – Is This The Pause Before The Storm Or The Pause Before The Party?
Craig Hemke, Founder and Editor of TF Metals Report, joins us to reflect on the recent Fed meeting and press conference, and how that relates to the precious metals sector and general equities. One of the questions posed is if the coming conclusion in central banks monetary tightening cycle, where they wait to see what effects it will have, will end up being the pause before the storm and further weakening economic picture, or if it will be the pause before the party of risk-on speculative buying frenzy in the markets?
Craig points out that regardless of how it plays out, it will be key for investors to ignore some of the short-term micro noise, and instead focus on the longer term macroeconomic data and trends. He still feels the odds are the first half of the year will remain choppy, but that the latter half of the year may be similar to 2010 or 2019 where the Fed is eventually forced to start cutting again due to weakened economic conditions. His advice is to hold through any volatility in the near-term, expecting a more positive advance in gold, silver, and the PM mining stocks in the second half of the year.
New daily chart/short term sell signals for gold:
Notice that the last round of such signals in December resulted in choppy sideways-to-higher action. Such strength is common in any bull market.
Nice. I think it will find a strong support at 50% retracement.
With your chart skills, how are you not working for hedge funds or wallstreet banks? Maybe you do lol
That would be interesting but my last employment was over 20 years ago!
Silver is down a lot more than the silver miners which is a particularly good sign on a big scary gap-down day but how low will silver go?
Turd Ferguson Thursday Conversation w/ Jim Iuorio
Craig Hemke – TF Metals Report – Feb 2nd, 2023
“Jim Iuorio is a veteran trader with over three decades of experience trading just about everything. He’s here today to share some of his hard-earned wisdom so that you are better prepared for the volatility to come as 2023 progresses.”
> A few primary topics:
– his current take on the markets following the volatility of Wednesday and Thursday
– my concept of “One Universal Chart” for risk assets
– trading against the algos
– option strategies that he employs
– his favorite trades as 2023 begins
Sounds like we need a market for Companies and their stocks that have a direct relationship to fundamental values associated with economic historical theories. Then the crypto markets, options and other gaming programs could be a separate market for the house to take a cut and random players get rewarded. Let managed money always win so they devote all their efforts in the Casino market and let the naive victims in the “fundamental” market seek profits earned through traditional methods.
An alternative option is pull bank charters and give them casino licenses and create a new regulated free market system and close The Fed as it serves no legitimate purpose.
I like the idea of getting rid of the Fed and having somewhat more free markets. Their continual intervention, and the markets waiting constantly for the next monetary injection fix, like the addicts they’ve become, are a big contributing factor as to why things are so divorced from free markets. Same thing with bailouts and subsidies. These are all interference and to a degree a form of manipulation (although that has become such a charged word)… but yet, that is exactly what it is.
No company should have been “too big to fail” and companies like Tesla would have never survived if it wasn’t for government subsidies and handouts. In a real free market, it is survival of the fittest, and certain companies should fail and blowup, and people lose their jobs, and other companies grow, take their market share, and hire people as they expand.
If a car company, or airline, or hotel, or rental car company, or financial institution, or insurance company didn’t run it’s business well, then boom, it’s gone. People worry about that, but in a truly free and fair market, there would always be other businesses that would swoop in an innovate, or new companies that would arise to fill the void.
That is precisely what should have been allowed to play out in the Great Financial Crisis of 2008-2009, and there never should have been government intervention to bail out companies deemed “too big to fail,” nor should there have been a dozen years of the Fed doing quantitative easing. That is clearly intervention, and is not capitalism, or free markets. It creates a warped distorted market, with certain poorly managed failures of companies being allowed to keep doing a crappy job and exist.
Naturally, there needs to be a certain amount of death to make way for new life… a certain amount of forest fires to cleanse the land for new growth… a certain amount of erosion for new gems to come to light and shine. To try and prevent that and keep companies on life support for optics or for a few thousand people to persist to have jobs in a terribly run unprofitable company, is keeping zombie companies alive and interference.
I agree that that the Fed should not have ever existed and is an existential threat to free markets and freedom, but most of the braindead lemmings on Wallstreet or the financial media or their bankster cronies love the control the central banks have to interfere with natural processes of elimination, rebalancing, and true impeded competition. As a result crony capitalism, oligarchies, and favoritism have allowed the current markets to be truly dependent on the central banks manipulating markets, and bonds, and by extension currencies, and commodities. It’s a racket, it’s a shame, and unfortunately it is encouraged and yearned for by many of the clueless masses… just as they planned it.
“Too Big To Fail” is a crime in and of itself. If you (nonspecific you) want to play that game with making Corporations protected Crime Operations, then make them unaudited like the The Fed and get rid of the Constitution and put in place a Dictator. If that sounds distasteful, then go back to restructuring companies, breaking up monopolies, fire Corporate Boards and Management and put Criminals in jail like the Law provides . Too Big To Fail was a Wall Street Promotion adopted by a Wall Street Lawyer that should have never been Attorney General.
Some good information from Luorio about his options trading, thank you.
Gareth Soloway – Gold, silver to outperform in 2023, how to become a master trader
Kitco News w/ David Lin – Feb 2nd, 2023
0:00 – Investing principles
3:59 – AI and trading
9:40 – Trading rules
11:52 – Correct Bitcoin call
16:20 – Education for traders
22:58 – Hedging
24:14 – Gold
26:11 – Bitcoin
28:05 – Fighting the Fed?
29:00 – Crypto bear market
30:22 – Silver, other assets
32:04 – Gareth’s experience
I remember in 2008 when Hank Paulson bailed out Countrywide Real Estate and AIG with 800-900 billion of taxpayer’s money, they should have been allowed to go bankrupt to cleanse the system. Of course, a lot of other companies and jobs would have disappeared because they are all attached at the hip. Instead of this being viewed as crony capitalism Paulson is viewed as a savior.
They never mention a Depression anymore because they believe the markets can be manipulated for a soft landing. I see hardship all the time out on our streets. This way of life can’t go on much longer the debt which has been accumulated because of money printing and favoritism can’t exist when you are competing with other countries who have a real economy that is manufacturing based or backed by resources as in the case of Russia.
There are faint signs of improvement in the conventional markets, but March is coming and the uncertainty will be seen to be false. Discouragement will deepen as dividends are reduced or omitted. Failures will multiply and the bottom line will be will the bottom ever be reached. Crony capitalism is really socialism, and we all know you can’t spend other people’s money to support a failed regime.
The Russian based economy backed by resources a model for us to follow. If only the sheeple would realize how good it is, they would stop breaking down our borders in order to get in. Russians included.
There is a white tornado blowing through the economies of The Western World, and the devastation will be unprecedented. There could be one last Big Hurrah before the meltdown. DT