Weekend Show – What Breaks First, US Economic Data or The Markets?
Welcome to another KE Report Weekend Show. February has been a rough month for markets, metals, pretty much everything except for the US Dollar all driven by stronger than expected US economic data. Everyone was bullish after the 4 month run that started in Q4 2022 but now that February reminded investors that it’s not smooth sailing ahead.
Please keep in touch with Shad and I through email! Send us your thoughts on the markets and companies we feature on the show, as well as any other companies you would like us to interview. Our email addresses are Shad@kereport.com and Fleck@kereport.com.
- Segment 1 and 2 – Dana Lyons, Fund Manger and Editor of The Lyons Share Pro website kicks off the show by sharing his trading strategy for market and commodities. Dana says sell the rips in tech and buy the dips in value. for commodities we get his outlook for oil, natural gas, gold and copper.
- Dana is running an anniversary special at The Lyons Share Pro website for 1/3 off just this weekend. Click here to visit The Lyons Share Pro website.
- Segment 3 – Marc Chandler, Managing Partner at Bannockburn Global ForEx and Editor of the Marc To Market website breaks down the inflation and retail spending data from Friday that pushed markets lower. Marc has a very different outlook moving forward for the trend of US economic data.
- Segment 4 – Josef Schachter, Founder and Editor of The Schachter Energy Report wraps up the show with a look into the oil and natural gas sectors. We focus more on the stocks that Josef thinks are the best buys over the next couple of months and how whether he likes oil or nat gas stocks more.
Hey there Glenfidish. Thanks for sharing your technical outlook on gold, oil, and the dollar.
That would be an interesting environment where the dollar broke out to a new high while gold did as well. They can travel in the same direction for periods of time, when they are both getting a safe haven bid simultaneously.
It would likely be a big time risk-on scenario with serious economic or geopolitical concerns to send them both up to all time highs in tandem, but that is entirely possible if we see a worse-than-expected recession set in later in the year.
On the interview above I asked Josef if there was a potential for oil to break down into the $60s and stay lower for longer in a sideways grind, and he didn’t feel that was likely at all. Instead he reiterated that he is confidently expecting more of a v-shaped bounce from the next brief leg down when oil breaks $70, into a big surge higher again, in the next month or two.
We shall see how it goes, but if Oil does go down into the $60s pricing, then I may add some more energy stocks back into the mix. Nat Gas has already cratered from over $9 down to near $2 in the last 7 months, so it looks closer to a low here than oil does. As a result, I may start accumulating the natty gas stocks first, then add the hybrid companies with mix a mix of gas/liquids/oil next, and then some more oily names after that.
Hoping you and all investors here at the KE Report have a prosperous 2023!
Eric Nuttall on BNN Friday…
He is more bullish oil for now than nat gas.
Eric Nuttall was calling for $140 Oil last year after it had already corrected from $125 down to sub $100 and into the $90s. He laid out a very compelling case at the time late last summer and early fall, but clearly the exact opposite happened and Oil dropped down to the $80s and now the $70s, with many expecting it to now break below $70. He was bullish oil prices all the way down in this move, and not surprising that he still remains bullish now.
It appears we are far closer to the lows in Nat Gas than we are in Oil, and between the 2 it is oil and the oil stocks that have more near-term downside risk than the nat gas sector, where most of the carnage has already been priced in at this point for the gassers.
He definitely gets too bullish and doesn’t discount enough for an economic slowdown.
This winter in Southwestern Ontario has been incredibly mild and if I look at the forecast over the next 14 days this mild weather is predicted to continue, by then we are into mid-March and winter is almost over. My home heating bills are still high but only I/3 of the bill is for a gas supply charge, the rest of the bill is 1/3 tax, and 1/3 is a transportation cost to get it to your home. The Tax component of my bill has gone up a lot because of a new Federal Carbon Charge.
With the economy slowing down as we are headed into a recession; I can’t see all of the natural gas power plants calling for increased consumption for the next 9 months. I would like to buy some nat gas stocks, but I don’t see a hurry to get into these plays in the short term. In Europe and elsewhere around The World this same situation is playing out, a mild winter and a slowing economy. I will use this time to have a look at the energy sector, but I don’t think there is an urgent need to get deployed in these stocks at this time. DT
Hi DT. Yeah good point on the more mild Winter than expected — not just in North America but also in Europe. A few months back everyone was worried this was going to be a very cold Winter and it would really spike natural gas prices even higher, but just the opposite has played out.
I still think that nat gas is down around the low at this point, after an epic run last year up over $9 and then the following cascade waterfall decline down to where it is just hovering above $2. We can still see gas usage go up in the summer months though if air conditioning bills go up and they use natural gas for energy generation. Nat gas is always highly volatile, and it is easy for investors to get wrong-footed trading it’s wild swings.
I’d like to see a bit more pessimism in the energy sector in general, and for the stocks to roll over even more with more investor and analyst FUD. However, a number of good energy stocks have already been chopped in half over just the last 3 to 6 months from their highs, so they are starting to look more compelling again.
Hi Ex, On the air conditioning front, the last two summers have been extremely hot and humid here. Last year in May I bought a new air conditioner for my home and I was really surprised at how energy efficient the new units are over my replacement (same model) which was 15 years old. With electricity you get charged for usage and not transportation costs and there is no direct Federal Carbon charge. The hydro utilities are upset at the loss of revenue from the new energy efficient air conditioners. I know because I have read a few articles on this subject and noticed quite a difference in savings on my bill. The future for air conditioning will be much the same. DT
Hi DT. Good points on the better energy efficiency for modern day appliances, but there are still big spikes and energy use in the summer when people need air conditioning. In fact, Summer is often larger for energy use than in the Winter.
Now, Nat Gas is a form of heating for many houses so that often causes a seasonal spike to natty gas prices leading into the Winter, but for those that have natural gas plants powering their electricity usage, then Summer (more so in the Northern Hemisphere) is still a big energy pull on global markets. I’m anticipating nat gas prices to start moving higher again in the summer months.
As a side note, people keep talking about how mild the winter has been, but here in the Pacific North West it has been particularly colder than average, and we use Nat Gas to heat our homes and have had much higher energy prices than the prior years. I was out skiing earlier this week in negative -17 degree wind chills… Brrr….
With regards to the hot dogs days of summer, the home we are currently living in, like 80% of the homes in my area unfortunately doesn’t have air conditioning. The last 2 years have seen record high temperatures in 2 different heat waves. As a result, on hotter days, I’m burning fossil fuels like Oil and Gasoline in my vehicle to head to the lake to swim and enjoy a crisp cold craft beer or two. Haha!
If it wasn’t for the discovery of beer, we would still be living in caves and throwing stones at each other! Beer is the nectar of the God’s. LOL! DT
On a different subject, anyone has experience using TG Watkins Moxie indicator? It comes with a hefty price tag ($500) but maybe worth an investment? I know Matthew is incredibly talented with stockcharts and interested in hearing more about it.
Thanks for bringing it up because I hadn’t heard of the Moxie indicator. I’ll have to look into it.
We’ve had TG Watkins on the show every 2 weeks for years now, and he has discussed his proprietary Moxie indicator in a number of shows, but I’m not sure precisely what is in the secret sauce (more so just what the technical set up is that he is seeing). Also, what he’s told us off-mic about some of how it is configured is just for his subscribers, so I want to respect that for T.G.’s effort and service.
What I will say is that we bring a lot of people on the show and TG Watkins and Dana Lyons are about the 2 most accurate of all of them based on how they do technical analysis and quantitative analysis. They’ve caught most of the swings in either direction correctly, both going long and going short at the right times, and when they’ve been wrong, they caught it quickly and were willing to admit so and reverse direction appropriately.
As mentioned weeks ago, it’s uncommon for an asset class that has a significant run when it reverses to unimpedingly move in the other direction. I mentioned months ago that the dollar would probably peak at the end of 2022 and when it fell hard that we would in all probability see it rebound not necessarily to new highs but an attempt to double top. Right now the charts are signalling a move to challenge the previous highs and do not yet signal a move to new highs. There will be continual pressure on oil into most likely mid year when the long term charts might reveal the next move for oil. A dollar moving higher would not in all likelihood allow a major move higher for the PMs but hopefully allow a moderation in its’ move down or in the best case scenario a holding pattern.
Doc, my stuff shows that NatGas hit its low last Wednesday morning before the New York market opened at 09:30. A bottoming consolidation is now underway. What is your projection for the intermediate term? Some say 4.00 is a good bogie. BDC
bdc, what symbol are you using?
bdc, I just looked at nat gas and I feel the odds are with your thought process. In fact, thanks for the alert. I’m considering on taking a position for a trade.
Thanks for the insight. BOIL (long) and KOLD (short) are good trading vehicles for the commodity, with unleveraged UNG a basis for charting.
Latest analysis: https://tinyurl.com/52euebw7. Note that FCG tracks drillers and producers.
Thanks BDC, and I saw your comments earlier in the week about Nat Gas and am generally in agreement that it seems the worst of the pullback in natty gas has played through already. I think there is more risk to the downside in Oil than Nat Gas, and that’s why I’ll likely scale into the gassers first before the oily stocks in the near to medium term.
Ex, note the adherence to Fibonacci: https://postimg.cc/rzZYGjMf.
Base 30.00 (0%) with 70.29 (100%) initial top.
An ETF 8-bagger in four months: https://postimg.cc/HcgrjRSj.
Indications are that key support at 54.62 may break soon.
BOIL’s line of least resistance will then be northbound.
Wow. What a move in KOLD as the inverse to the dramatic fall in Nat Gas. Yes, respecting those Fib levels too. Thanks BDC.
Another tradeable rally going to occur
Cali, it appears the long term trend for baba is down.
Joel Elconin discussed BABA briefly on his show yesterday (where I did my first guest cameo), and he also discussed how ugly KWEB was in sympathy towards the end of the call near the market close. Looks like some of the Asian stocks have been in the hurt locker again recently.
PreMarket Prep “The Closing Print” – February 24, 2023
Joel Elconing w/ guest Shad Marquitz
Thanks Ex. I will have to check out the show. Re: Baba, I think it put a long bottom last October and I guess it will become evident 4-5 months from now. I think it’s very close to a nice tradeable rally and bought a few last Friday.
CaliJoe – Thanks for the heads up on the bottoming process in BABA. It seems to represent the sentiment from investors towards Asian stocks more than any other stock, so it’s nice to track it in that sense.
China and BABA are getting ready to beat the US stock market for a long time.
Matthew thanks for posting the ratio of charts of BABA vs Amazon and BABA vs the triple Qs. Yes, it looks like it is turning up and ready to make some progress on US equities.
It may be interesting to look into emerging market ETFs that have a particularly higher weighting to stocks from China, Taiwan, South Korea, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand.
Hey Fellas, two things:
1. Thoughts on NAK (Northern Dynasty). Any chance over the next few years, if we have a Commodity/Gold Bull-Market, this comes back to life?
2. What are some Miners with great Gold exposure, but also Copper exposure? Thinking GOLD/SA/NG/WRN…
1) One never knows, but Northern Dynasty has been an irritating story for well over a decade now, because promoters come in every 2-3 years and get everyone all jazzed on the project, only for environmentalist/lobbyist/some community pushback, legal rulings, and permitting roadblocks to kill it, leaving yet another round of bagholders. I’ve seen that happen now 3-4 times and then watch retail that piles into the hype get crushed. People were just positive things would change with Trump in office and that it would finally get passed, and that seemed like an outside chance as he was trying to remove some red-tape around permitting and moving domestic business forward, but it was stalled and denied once again.
Having all that red tape removed anytime soon under the current administration still seems quite dubious, unless they were able to somehow position it from the Critical Minerals side of the project. NAK has been a money trap for about a dozen years for investors that got in repeatedly based on the latest narrative. Now maybe one day it finally does happen, but there are so many other solid stories to invest in, so my thinking has been why take the gamble on one with such an uphill climb, not just for permitting, but for the capital needed to bring the project into production.
2) There are actually a lot of Gold companies with nice Copper credits, and I used to have a list of these, but can’t find it, so just off the top of my head.
First up, both Barrick and Newmont have some copper exposure and are looking to add more, if you like the owning the Majors.
McEwen Mining has both Gold and Copper exposure (the copper is mostly through their Los Azules copper-forward project, but some of their other mines have copper co-credits).
Troilus Gold has about 8 million ounces of gold equivalent, and when they put out an updated resource estimate, I’m guessing it will be pretty close to 10 million ounces of gold equivalent. One of the big co-credits that they have in those equivalent numbers is Copper, making up 15% of the mineralized resources.
Clearly ATAC resources had some good Copper exposure with the Gold, because in the acquisition of it by Hecla, just announced this last week, they are spinning out the copper projects into a new spinco.
Speaking of acquisitions from this week, there is also Sibanye buying New Century for their Copper assets, so even though they are mostly Gold & PGMs, with some exposure to Nickel and even Lithium, they are bringing Copper into the mix.
We just had the royalty company Ecora Resources on the show this last week, and they’ve got a healthy exposure to Copper in their metals mix, as does Altius Minerals and even EMX royalty. Nova Royalty is mostly copper exposure, so there are 4 royalty companies with lots of copper.
Metallic Minerals is known for their bonanza grade Silver hits like their neighbors Hecla (previously Alexco) and lower grade bulk tonnage silver hits at Keno Hill, but they have a 2nd project with a large Copper resource in Colorado that is hardly being given any value in their portfolio, and it is substantial.
Another company in the Metallic Group of companies with a fair bit of Copper is Stillwater Critical Minerals, but their deposit is polymetallic with a lot of Nickel and Palladium and Cobalt, but still about 10% Copper.
I own a beat up small to mid-tier Copper-Gold producer called Atico Mining, but they are operating in Colombia and Ecuador and get a jurisdiction penalty for that. Still, I think they are an underdog story gradually turning their operations around with a nice development project in the pipeline.
Sierra Metals is also a polymetallic producer of Silver, Copper, Lead, Zinc, and Gold, and I believe copper is the 2nd heaviest weighted commodity.
Adriatic Minerals would be a good polymetallic Zinc/Silver/Copper deposit to highlight, if they didn’t have a copper stream on their copper production, so that isn’t really part of their value proposition any more.
Probe Gold is finding nice Copper intercepts along with Silver and Gold in assays, at their secondary Detour Gold project.
There is Western Copper & Gold, as a large development project in the Yukon.
Regulus Resources has a medium-sized Copper & Gold development project in Peru. Also their spin out Cu & Au project into Aldebaran is worth noting.
There are a ton of different copper gold explorers, but a few that get discussed here often are Brixton and Emerita.
I don’t have the energy to go find all the gold/copper explorers but there are likely about 50-100 of them. Still there are a few ideas up above worth researching if interested.
Thanks Ex, great info
Sure thing Nawanda. It is an interesting topuc because there are a lot of Copper deposits with some Gold, and the inverse of that with gold deposits with copper credits. There are a lot of other peojects others may be familiar with as other opportunities, but those were just some that came to mind where the copper credits are a bit more significant.
Significant GDX bottom next week?
Saturation is expected.
A significant bottom next week is likely and needed for my most bullish scenario to remain alive/possible in its original form. I like the fact that Friday began with a gap down which is still unfilled (and therefore a target) and a weekly chart gap down on Monday followed by a reversal would be perfect.
The HUI is now down a record 12 consecutive days and is very oversold.
Maximum level saturation is possible for PMs into mid-week.
Though a qualitative indicator, quantity is respected.
The turn was possibly Friday!
Noted this morning.
Yes the odds are good!
The dirtballs at the CFTC are still weeks behind in their COT reporting on gold and silver. As far as I know this is the first time in 60 years of reporting that such unwarranted BS has happened. Their little price management operation obviously needed a little help.
The following worthless update leaves the last 4 weeks of data unaccounted for:
What’s your take on AG?
Good place to buy or does it still have room to fall?
Thx in advance!!
I posted this chart about a month ago for First Majestic. I think it is going to retest covid low.
Cali, couldn’t agree more with your assessment on AG. The monthly close will probably take out the previous monthly lows and that’s a lousy omen. It could hit five and then bounce but I would be patient in taking a position here until it quiets down. I’ve been waiting months for AG to be slammed and to purchase and I’ll be patient and wait a little longer. There is no hurry in some of these stocks and it is best to see them bottom and consolidate before taking a position.
what is your conservative target for Gold/Silver to the downside over the next short-medium term? Does this play into a DXY at 120?
Nawanda, I wouldn’t be surprised to see gold at 1770 to 1800 before we get a bounce. 3 weeks ago, I mentioned silver at 20 but now it looks like we could see 19 before a meaningful bounce. This doesn’t play into dxy at 120.
For AG, this will be the lowest monthly close in 4 years.
Hi Doc, Thanks for sharing your technical outlook on First Majestic.
I have not owned them in many years (since the big run in 2016) and have felt they were overvalued for a long time. A couple years back they had issues in Mexico with taxes, with labor groups, which are still ongoing concerns, and this likely is why the broke their “one commodity, in country” mantra to diversify into Gold in Nevada, by purchasing the Jerrit Canyon mine off Eric Sprott.
The operations team for First Majestic over at Jerritt Canyon believed they could optimize it better, but clearly they have not been producing at the low economic rates as projected. As a result, AG has had higher operating costs and a big underperformance in revenues compared to analyst’s expectations. This has rightly put them in the penalty box with investors.
I hold 21 Silver stocks, but have not seen the reason to hold and First Majestic for many years now, as there are more compelling risk/reward scenarios from my perspective. For some reason though, a lot of investors like to pile into and out of First Majestic as a proxy for the Silver sector (likely due to the visibility and sector bullishness from CEO Keith Neumeyer), but it hasn’t been the best proxy for the sector for some time now.
Just look at the big run we just saw in Silver mining stocks from the period of late Sept of 2022 to late January of 2023. First Majestic was heading back down by the end of that period (only up very mildly from it’s Sep low by late Jan, and now in February trading below it’s September lows making new lower lows) and dramatically underperformed the rest of the sector. Many other silver producers were up 30% – 100% over that same time period by late January, and SILJ was up over 55%. Initially First Majestic was heading higher in October and early November, but then rolled over substantially in November and wend down for most of Nov + Dec + Jan while other silver and gold stocks were still trucking higher.
I had pointed that out about First Majestic’s underperformance of the PM sector on this most recent run on Steve Penny’s website when many investors there were bemoaning their results with AG as their primary or only silver stock. I had suggested some of that was due to actual fundamental challenges the company was having operationally, on top of a prior rich valuation of AG compared to other silver and gold producing peers, and that for a sector proxy on silver miners that holding SILJ was a far better and more accurate choice, that was far less risky, and much more diversified, but many of them still couldn’t hear that and are still comparing all the silver sector to their experience in First Majestic. Oh well, that’s what makes a market…
However, if First Majestic keeps falling like this and outperforming many silver and gold producers to the downside, then it’s valuation will start becoming more and more attractive for a potential entry and play for a bounce higher when the sentiment recovers.
(AG) (FR) First Majestic Silver Non-GAAP EPS of -$0.21 misses by $0.05, revenue of $624.2 Million misses by $2.2 Million
Feb. 23, 2023
My exposure to AG comes from SILJ so I don’t follow its fundamentals but I would still BUY here based on the short term charts especially if it and/or the sector gaps down again on Monday. It is extremely daily oversold 3.5 month following its last intermediate high. The last time it was comparably oversold 9 or 10 months ago it was less than 1 month after an intermediate high. So even though the chart is ugly and does point potentially much lower, it is likely to rally from here even if my outlook for the sector doesn’t work out. Therefore you can buy now and then monitor the action for signs of a problem. The risk-reward is very good.
If the sector performs as I’ve been expecting then it seems unlikely that AG would go to the low level that CaliJoe mentioned. Next week will be telling and SILJ’s Point & Figure chart seems to be foreshadowing a bullish outcome since its Price Objective is now 17.50 despite the fact that AG is its number one holding. Interestingly, HL’s P&F PO is now 8.00 and it wasn’t long ago that at least one poster here thought it was going to 2.00 or lower. Despite being 23 percent below its recent high HL is STILL 150% higher than 2.00
Thanks Matthew regarding AG
Your comments are always appreciated!!
It looks like peak premium of First Majestic over SILJ was during that Feb 1st 2021 “Silver Squeeze” temporary mania in dual-listed silver stocks on the back of the higher silver prices.
Since then AG has given back much of that outperformance and shifted much more to underperformance. As mentioned above, it may be time to consider the more oversold set up in First Majestic, and that possibly most of the fundamental challenges are now mostly priced in this recent leg lower. It could be a time soon to temporarily favor it as a catchup trade to SILJ, but clearly that still introduces far more individual company risks than holding the diversified ETF does. Still it may be worth the speculation soon.
As mentioned to Poko I believe the time is now and another gap down tomorrow would warrant aggressive buying.
Thanks for those additional charts Matthew.
It does look like the First Majestic pricing is now down at key trendline support both the longer-term rising one coming out of 2018, and that fork bottom prong support you highlighted. Yes, it could be a good time to take a stab at AG for a bounce soon.
Jim and to a lesser extent Al keep dancing around the main issue and spreading western propaganda. US/NATO need to stop shipping weapons into Ukraine, get the heck out of there and mind their own business. Victoria Nuland needs to shut her fat mouth and mind her own business for once in her life.
If Jimmy can’t admit these things then it is time for new leadership at KER .
Brumple, if anyone should understand that this is not the political sight it is you. However, I do agree with your post. DT
Whoops wrong side, you’re right
Thanks guys. Yes please keep political comments directed to Jim and Big Al over on their political blog.
THAT BE…….THE………ORPHAN SECTION….. 🙂
can not disrupt the money making machine here…. lol
Ha! Good one OOTB.
Yes, the front-facing economic part of the website is what keeps the lights on at the KE Report, allowing it to move forward, and generates the lion’s share of the site visitor traffic, which thus encourages more guests and companies to appear on the show.
ALL of the site sponsors that allow this platform to continue growing here and on our podcast network are companies in the resource sector. We are very grateful to those companies, our guest speakers, and contibutors here on the blogs that make the KER such a hub of insights for so many investors in a number of different countries.
Just remember who was here First……. 🙂
We are all working and uncovering the SCUM in the political area….
for those to enjoy their NEW FOUND WEALTH….. 🙂
Yes, indeed OOTB.
You guys are doing a great job of uncovering the scum in the main stream media narratives and political theater for sure, and it has always been appreciated.
Thanks Doc/CaliJoe on the comments regarding AG!
Bought some @ the lows on Friday but may wait a bit before buying more.
Doc…..Getting close to buying some tickets for Michigan/Os game this November( before the ticket price’s get out of hand/their sky high already) GO BLUE!!
Good for you. Michigan is actually starting to compete consistently with O for the first time in years. I even go into those games expecting them to win.
Google search -ancient michigan copper mining- includes the following:
Is there any copper left in Michigan?
Michigan’s native-copper deposits are found almost exclusively in the Portage Lake Lavas. The lava “series” consists of over 200 lava flows with 20 interbedded conglomerates, sandstone and shale. The rocks strike parallel to the length of the Keweenaw Peninsula and dip to the northwest beneath Lake Superior.
Why is copper no longer mined in Michigan?
The copper became harder and more expensive to mine until finally, when cheaper copper could be obtained from other regions, it became unprofitable to mine copper in Michigan. Michigan’s mines, although obtaining pure copper, could not compete with those western mines which obtained copper ores near the surface.
How pure is Michigan copper?
The mines in Lake Superior are the only known Bronze Age mines to contain copper with a purity exceeding 99%.
… Grist for the KER Mill.
Dollar Index : More Than A Bounce?
To 106.94 ~ 108.61 ??
The lower end of your range resonates with a fork resistance:
I will be surprised if it can achieve a weekly close at even 107.
The key level is 38.2%.
Brien Lundin talks to Mike Struthers CEO of Altaley Mining Corp. SYL-ATLY. They have two operating mines in Mexico with copper, zinc, gold, and silver credits. Campo Merado 1000 TPD and Tahuehueto 500 TPD. 14 million dollar market cap, and cash flow positive. DT
Why Markets Could Be In For A ‘Terrible Reckoning’
Jesse Felder – The Felder Report (02/25/2023)
Time to get out one beer, not one bottle of beer but one Olympic sized swimming pool of beer, end of discussion. DT
DT – I’m going to opt for heading to the beach to drink a cold beer or two with my lady, and watch the sunset over the snow-capped mountains across the water. 🙂
Are our in Salt Lake City, Exselsior?
No I’m in the greater Seattle area Big Al. We’ve lived somewhat near your neck of the woods the last few years.
We do go up to Anacortes/Deception Pass and the Chuckanut area for adventuring on trails, nature parks, and beaches, and then head over near you in Bellingham to go out for dining and drinks (especially in the warmer months).
My comment above to DT was referencing that we quite often go to a number of beaches along the Pugent Sound in the late afternoon to early evening to watch the sun set over the water and behind the snow-capped Olympic Mountains. We did that again today, and it was as scenic as always. Cheers!
Molson or Labatt? Only two I can think of. Not a biere connoiseur, sorry.
Then vs Now…
Following its October 2000 major low the XAU gained 60% in 7 months and then fell 26% in 6 months.
Following its late September 2022 low the XAU gained 55% in 4 months and then fell 21% in 1 month (so far).
The TSX-V looks great and is just below its low of November 1999 (the month of trading data)…
Still trying to get caught up with all the great interviews this week……on the market side regarding stocks I follow I’ll agree with DT(believe that’s who said it) that the volumes are on the slow side….had a couple of 😴😴😴 days but things did perk up a bit news wise with my 3 base metal plays. Emerita Magna and Osisko all had great news. Otherwise all is quiet on the western front. Cheers.
Thanks Wolfster and in the Dave Erfle and Craig Hemke interviews on the show earlier in the week, we discussed the volumes getting lower as the mining stocks were down about 13 out of 15 days at one point. There is the high potential that most of the selling pressure is now getting more exhausted, and daily charts are getting oversold again, so maybe a bit more downside, then basing to build energy for another leg higher.
I unwound and pulled profits on the rest of my JDST short hedge position last week, and started adding to long positions the end of last week. I’ll be looking to add to more positions this week into any further corrective action in the PM mining stocks.
As for the base metals and energy metals, I plan to talk with Doc Jones tomorrow, so we may reference a few of the stocks you mentioned there like Emerita, Magna, or Osisko Metals, as I know he follows those closely and mentioned those to me in a message. Stay tuned…
Great…. more interviews..🙄……..
Seriously,look forward to it…Doc Jones fundamental approach and patience and understanding of the macro outlook is refreshing
Doc Jones does incredible Due Diligence; he is a great guest, and he has provided a lot of people that visit this sight with some very valuable information. I always enjoy his interviews! DT
Thanks guys, for the positive comments on Doc Jones. I think he’s a great guest to bring on the show as well, and does excellent due diligence on the companies he gets interested in.
Unfortunately, few people in our niche resource sector took swipes at him publicly and went after him last year because he doesn’t share his real name with folks for his own personal/privacy reasons, and these guys started untrue and unpleasant rumors about him or blacklisted him from other shows. Their loss and our gain..
SLVR, Silver Tiger news
A good indirect commentary on social media, haha!
Looks like I-80 wanting to pick up Paycore. You may want to look at Golden Lake and Timberline as a result. They are all in same area and possibly share similar characteristics.
Interesting Lakedweller. Matt Geiger had menrioned Paycore’s proximity to I-80 in our most recent interview with him a few weeks back, when we were discussing CRD deposits in Nevada.
I think they may all have CRD hits or historic hits. There is also some Gold at depth. there is a fault that runs through the area and I don’t think it is entirely clear where the source may be for the whole batch of companies. It has been a while since I read up on them, so good for everyone to check it out. Nevada Eureka area … (Disclosure: I own I-80, Timberline and Golden Lake…I am biased and cheering them on).
Thanks for that additional info Lakedweller2. I’m biased and a shareholder of I-80 (IAUX) as well, and am also cheering them on, and feel that them taking over Paycore at this point just shows how confident that they are that this CRD deposit area is massive and quite richly endowed. I added more to my i-80 position on today’s news and the associated pullback with regards to the acquisition.
They walked back 50% of todays ( in my folio) gains on their way to red. Let’s see how they do …. again.
Overall it’s a mixed bag today in my portfolio, except for my newer position in Argonaut Gold that is getting spanked on the back of the news release they put out early in the morning on their Q4 and 2022 recap. While this is backward looking, and mostly discussed, I guess investors didn’t like the higher AISC costs in Mexico up near $1625-$1725, with some mines being throttled back or paused as they work to get more landholder rights to start mining in other new areas. It will be a moot issue when Magino comes online this year and lowers the overall company AISC dramatically, and even more so by next year when any kinks will have been worked out and Magino is running full steam ahead.
Again, my rationale for scaling back into Argonaut is all about Magino being a few months away from moving into production, and even though they also announced some of the production will be hedged, and capex creeped up from $730M to $755M due to delays until the first pour and some other earthmoving work, that isn’t a reason to whack the company by 20% in just one day.
It appears I’ve got more confidence than many skittish investors, because I’m looking at the larger story unfolding here and not stuck looking in hindsight or recency bias, and am actually relieved they’ve just brought in Richard Young (formerly the Terranga boss before they were acquired by Endeavour Mining) to get things turned around. This press release that just hit today was from before his time at the helm under the old interim CEO, so it just seems like investors are at peak “fear, uncertainty, and doubt” (FUD) with AR today.
Personally, I took this opportunity with the fishing line selloff and peak investor concerns to add another tranche of Argonaut to the position. It may keep falling for a bit longer, and if so, I’ll add some more to the position. By year-end I believe this will seem like a wise decision, and by next year it will look like a steal to pick up Argonaut at these prices and with this market cap of CAD $368M. I fully believe this will be over a $1Billion valuation company by the end of 2024, and am in it for at least a 3 bagger from here.
Monday is usually just a flat loss. Today seemed like we had a chance (although the ups and downs were mixed). However 75 % retracement so far with 45 mins to go. My bet is on the insiders. (My recency bias is in its 13th month. But, I have been swapping off stuff at an increased rate which has helped a little bit. Kind of like taking on 3 jobs to cover the one that one used to have.) (I should mention that they are using one of their usual tools and that is letting Emo run up to +6% and now it is red. That is their easiest “go-to” standard)
Just For Fun:
EMO did a 2% reversal on one trade and then the next went red. Just for fun lets see if just by chance Emo closes 1.5 to 2% green. Sometimes they flag the close early…
No fun at all: worked it green then closed Emo at low of day.
Stay tuned for the Doc Jones interview going up soon, as we discussed EMO on there amongst a bunch of other companies.
I love it when you talk that way….
CDNX looks like it’s time to fish or cut bait, it closed virtually on the high today. I think this week is pivotal for the CDNX to set a direction for the next breakout, IMHO…
(Substitute TSX.v for instances of CDNX)
I the next ten days the 50dma will be gaining a 620 and losing a 570, that will slam it into the 200dma in a couple weeks while leaving some gaps behind from a couple months ago, very interesting…
Thanks for the show Cory and Ex!
Was magnifying a long-term monthly chart on the US dollar but even more importantly, a weekly chart and sure it was telling. I’ve laid out my forecast for gold maintaining It will break to all-time highs this year, as well as WTI oil headed down into the summer possibly another 4 to 5 months red candle.
Now what struck me was the investor sentiment in regards to the US dollar and most investors that I came across were all Barash on the US dollar topping between 105 to 109. Considering the pattern that I’m following in the Bearish tone of the US dollar, I am going to go out on a limb and say that the US dollar will make a final higher high but here’s the key it will not take the miners down or gold. This is were gold and silver I believe as well as the miners will show their strength very shortly , once that higher high is made which has a timeline of 4/5/6 months then we will really take off!
Great weekend to all…