Robert Sinn – Technical Levels In Gold and Silver, The PDAC Curse Continues, And Activity In The Yukon
Robert Sinn, known as Goldfinger over at CEO.ca and writer at the Energy and Gold website, joins us with his technical outlook, thoughts on seasonality and the PDAC Curse, and the recent activity and trading action amongst companies operating in the Yukon. We start off by having Robert share the technical pricing support and resistance levels that he is watching for in gold and silver, and looking at their level importance in connection with varying investors time horizons.
Next we shift over the pattern of seasonality we see in the precious metals sectors from year to year, especially as it relates to the buying pressure coming out of tax loss selling season in the first quarter, only to get faded with selling pressure leading into late February and early March. This coincides right in time for the annual PDAC conference; earning it the nickname the “PDAC curse” after happening fairly consistently for over 2 decades now. Robert points out some of the seasonal factors like the gold’s typical weakness in March, in conjunction with companies rushing their best newsflow out in the weeks leading up the conference, where investors have gotten wise to this pattern which precedes the inevitable capital raising window that occurs right afterwards, to fund summer drill programs.
We wrap up with getting Robert take on the dichotomy between the trading action in shares that clearly are running low on funds, versus companies that are still well cashed up to keep moving their projects and work plans forward for the balance of this year and into next. He highlights Banyan Gold (TSXV:BYN)(OTCQB:BYAGF) as company that is quite cashed up, exploring to expand their resources, and has been trending sideways holding onto most of their gains during this tough period for the sector. This brings up a larger discussion about how area plays can pull in more investor interest, and how there has been a flurry of M&A activity and majors taking over or taking key strategic positions in Yukon developers recently, which has been a net positive for the sector and that jurisdiction.
Click here to visit the Energy and Gold website.
Keep in mind this winning bid with ATAC and Hecla came on the back of an initial offer that was made from the newer producer in the Yukon, Victoria Gold (who Coeur has a strategic position in).
ATAC (TSXV: ATC) (OTCQB: ATADF) Acknowledges Receipt of Offer from Victoria Gold Corp. (TSX-V:VGCX)
13 Feb 2023
As mentioned in the interview, this move by Hecla into the Yukon was initiated last year when it scooped up the distressed Alexco. HL will be putting that mine at Keno Hill back into production in Q3 of this year which is good for that whole area, including Banyan that Robert mentioned, and for HL’s neighbors Metallic Minerals (MMG) that we’ve had on the show a number of times, which they have the other 1/2 of that area and the same mineralization runs onto their property.
Hecla (HL) Completes Acquisitions Of Alexco Resource Corp (AXU)
7 Sep, 2022
As Robert also mentioned, having the big boy Rio Tinto taking a strategic stake in Western Copper & Gold’s Casino project over the last 2 years has been a huge endorsement of the Yukon jurisdiction by one of the largest mining companies.
Western Copper And Gold (WRN) Announces Extension Of Rio Tinto’s (RIO) Rights
23 Nov 2022
You can’t spell Powell without at a POW!!!
Whammo, right in the kisser the PM bugs take it.
Sucker punched again by another bear market rally, you guys never learn!
Darth Powell whipped out his light saber of hawkishness and sliced the PMs like a hot knife thru butter.
Get in in your heads people, rates are going up and staying up for a long, long time.
Even oil took it on the chin today.
That is what you want, that is what YOU WILL NEED!!!!
I think my stink bid for IAUX @ $2.09 May execute this week.
Today was the 1st day in 3 years that I was looking to buy in hand Ag . There are some low hanging premiums out there in that < 15% range for 1oz rounds. I’m a buyer @ $19.50
There’s our special contrarian Joe indicator, just as negative and insulting to investors in this sector as always.
We’ve been waiting for you to show back up once a corrective move got going, after you went missing in action during the 4th quarter and January during the double-digit gains in the sector. Last time that you warned things would be the worst for PMs in the 4th quarter of 2022, and that “the PMs and mining stocks be ground to a fine dust” going into late 2022. (nope)
Instead, in late September it was actually one of the best times to do the opposite of your proclamations and to deploy cash (not sell everything an go to cash). Those that did the opposite of your repeated dire warnings, and accumulated into that weakness caught a rally that lasted from late September all the way through late January. 🤑
Now you have, once again, waited for the markets to get really oversold, and for a really tough day in the markets to pop back on here. It’ll be nice to follow along more closely in the near-term, to see where we end up putting in the lows, as you’re typically a fantastic contrarian indicator. Thanks for the heads up.
Notice there’s never a peep from Joe and the other two shysters until everything is oversold. If they had any competence at all they’d be doubling down on their bearish views when everything is overbought. The goofs think they’re going to call a major multi year low when 1.) they never have, and 2.) they can’t call an intermediate or short term low. All three were bearish AF at the September low and remained so as GDX/GDXJ gained almost 60% in 3-4 months. Expect a repeat during the next advance.
Joe ‘The Tell’ let’s us know:
Buy in Hell (two steps to go).
With respect to the issue of repetitive market actions and seasonality, I have never been able to understand whether the chicken or egg came first and the relation of that situation with that of the “ self- fulfilling prophecy” and those two situations relative to the use of “algos” in market intervention. If they relate, someone is a criminal.
I agree. Powell not going to let his legacy be the fed chairman that let inflation go wild and we have to battle it in long term, he is going to keep fighting and raising rates and when he hits his target he will leave it there for lot longer than people think. He doesn’t care about stock market, the best thing is for Biden and Congress to get control of spending and start putting back and get control of that 31 trillion of debt. If this country don’t wake up stop giving things out for free, nothing for free you will pay in taxes etc. This kids need to get their asses to work and pay their own student loans, get control of millions of illegals crossing borders and we have to pay for their medical, food and housing for years, we can pay for big lush hotel rooms in NY but have veterans on street, hungry and can’t get medical care but non citizens can come into country and we take care of them. China help Russia start this war in Ukraine so we pay for it and we probably will pay to rebuild Ukraine after war ends, mean while china will try to take Taiwan and we will have to fight another war and fund them too. What good is gold if we go into severe depression most will loose balls because they are not buying physical but going for grand slam in miners, those stocks need 2100 plus gold prices just to get back to recent highs of august 22.
Joe you were right all along for looking far enough ahead to gold miners coming crashing down and you will get bounces but been making lower lows for over 2 years since August 22 highs. Watch rates keep going higher and year from now we will get that stock market crash or debt crash with it and gold miners will get crushed to 2020 lows again and most of these bug that but and hold on dips will be crushed, big bullion banks will create a monster washout in metals before they start to get in for the real gold bull but way to early.
Paul, I believe you’re correct about Powell. He does not want to be an Arthur Burns.
I have been saying for years , the charts mean nothing in a manipulated market. How many of you people have made real money in the mining sector ….based on the charts, now be honest. The day traders may have.
IrishT. Until I started using technical analysis and charts more seriously from 2013 and moving forward, then I was a victim of narratives and market forces. By later in 2013 and really more so in 2014 and 2015, I was finally making better consistent returns even in a bear market in PMs, by looking for good risk/reward probabilities.
I still value all the fundamental macro data and micro company data, but wouldn’t be nearly as profitable on the short-term swing-trades or medium-term position trades I make without technical analysis as an important tool. To each their own…
The charts reflect a world that is “reality” and they are a necessity as the intervention represents an agenda contrary to fundamental theories that existed prior to computers. The charts represent both political and financial interests of those that have the ability and authority to alter reality. We can complain all we want but we have no means to alter the rigging unless the government changes their agenda from corporate interests to those of retail. Retail interests reflect those rights and freedoms laid out in the Constitution, but will not be followed if the ruling political and financial elites do not see the Constitution as benefitting their personal interest of financial and power advantage.
By Default we are forced to trade based on the charts they make, the ETFs they offer, the index funds they create and the world they do not wish to share. We feed on the crumbs and wait for the day their greed leads to failure … which never seems to occur.
I look at it much more simply, that charts contain the opening and closing prices for each equivalent time frame. (5 minute, hourly, daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, annually).
Price contains everything. Price is the culmination of all factors.
Price contains the actionable data from all market participants, for all fundamental/technical/quantitative/ sentiment/ emotional reasons for buying/selling. Everything that happens and the reactions to that is captured and recorded in price.
Charts document manipulation.
Edges. Tops and Bottoms.
These tell the tale.
Hold on just a moment, I’ve been hearing for years “its a good time to buy”
Lets not forget the mantra. 😉
The Mantra =
It is a good time to buy most of the time … then it isn’t. It is hard to have a bull market when the upside seems to be capped. Don’t forget that many years ago when the potential for a favorable metals market gained more potential due to the intervention in general markets that the “exchanges” got permission to cap metals to 2% when demand one way or another got “real”. Obviously, they would not have asked for such authority if what they were doing in intervening in markets in general wasn’t raising concerns that investors would react by seeking an abnormal amount safety in metals. Larry Summer wrote a white paper back in the late 80s or 90s saying the price of gold had to be suppressed to maintain the “image” of the fiat currency. So here we our with most fiat currencies ruined, the country in debt and no ability to pay it, and they are still trying to suppress metal prices to keep people in an alternate universe. It beats the hell out of me why they feel the need to save face when they have no where to hide. But here we sit, day after day, playing games of imagination and price suppression. Do I believe a “gap” has to be filled. No. Do I believe miners should all be having an extended “real” bull market based on the “fundamentals” of free markets? Yes.
Does what I think matter in the least? No.
Hi Lake … You nailed it.
It’s definitely not always a good time to buy. Even investors that “dollar cost average” into positions do it rhythmically, at the same time each week, month, quarter, year; so they aren’t always buying either.
Markets move both up & down. All markets, all sectors, and all individual equities have both bullish and bearish periods. Anyone that would dispute that or not understand that shouldn’t be managing their own money.
Never thought my stink bid on DOLLF @ $.602, and it did. Next & final stinker $.589
Stink for SILV @ $5.01 & $4.89
NFGC @ $3.09
Currently 11.2% cash
Thanks for sharing the trading levels you are watching in those stocks Marty. I may add a wee bit to my Dolly Varden position on yhis pullback as well… mulling it over…
It does look like the gap is the target considering the action this week. Gold is going to join the rest of the sector with a new weekly MACD sell signal of its own and it gave up last week’s close above the important weekly “P” price pivot. HL shot up to that pivot last week and closed on it to the penny but has been rejected by it this week and probably won’t get it back by Friday’s close.
HL has been on a weekly MACD sell signal for about a month and has tested its rising 30 week MA repeatedly as well as a nearby fork support. Finishing the week below 5 would be bearish.
Reposting Plunger’s article. I’m keeping powder dry until April/May – nothing looks exacting that warrants a buy
I showed my two sons the video of Suzy Staxx, and you know what they said, “I would rather have the silver.” Really! LOL! DT😍😍😍😍😍
Pierre Lassonde: Gold to reach $2,400 by 2028 as geopolitical tensions mount, central banks purchase more bullion…….
Hang on guys, only another 5 years. I think I’d rather listen to Joe.
You’re right about that with Joe’s macro view being at least as valid. Besides who the hell will remember Lassonde objective call ??, on the future price of his product in 2028.
Most here worry about what’s goin to happen in the next couple of hours in the penny arcade
Just more endless babble.
Trading off some shares trying to increase i-80 50%. So far increased 40% @ 2.05-2.07.
Got last 10% at 2.05. I think that whole Eureka area is worth looking into while the prices appear to be less than one would expect in a climate of growing demand.
Lakedweller2 – Your post inspired me to pick up another tranche of I-80 gold (IAUX) at $2.06 today.
I had just mentioned to Marty earlier this week (or maybe it was last week) that if it got back down below $2.10-$2.00 that I’d throw another shrimp on the barbie. $2.06 is right in that range. The chart almost looks like a non-conventional inverse head & shoulders, but may bounce around a bit on this right shoulder area to consolidate for a month or so…
Regardless of recent weakness (along with most of the sector), I really like I-80 as a medium-term position hold for the next 12 months, and I’ll likely keep some core position in it out through 2025, based on their growth profile as a longer-term hold for my portfolio. In a few years, I expect it to be up multiple-fold in shareprice and overall market cap.
There are a few other stocks I’ve been watching to add a bit more to them during this corrective move, but want to see how things play out going into the jobs number this Friday and then the beginning of next week once that news is digested by Mr Market. If things get really extreme to the downside on Friday then I may add to those other positions, or if the reverse happens, I may just love the ones I’m with.
The price on i-80 seemed worth an add. But in general, I am trying to hold the share levels and dollar amounts (despite drops) relatively the same until there is some form of market action that “appears to differentiate” between the stocks. For about a year, all mine have been treated equally bad except for Magna until recently when I took profits while the market was taking price. Now they are all badly treated so playing musical chairs within my account doesn’t change the account value, but it does reflect my opinion of their potential value if and when things reflect true value (what ever that us).
Good thoughts Lakedweller2. I’ve got more of dichotomy between stocks that have held up better or even gotten traction over the last half year and ones that have been taken behind the woodshed and beaten to a pulp.
Some positions were mildly up to flat (at least until March) but are still not falling apart, and then other positions I hold are down 20%-35% from my cost basis, reaching the “danger” levels of whether I should keep holding on them through further pullbacks.
Of course, the ones that have had it the worst with the biggest moves down, are also the same ones that will likely outperform the most to the upside on bullish legs higher, so they are just higher torque juniors in both directions.
The questions remain though: How much longer will the current corrective move will last? How low do the metals and mining stocks go before finding bottom? What is the opportunity cost for sitting in these mining stocks as they correct in the near-term to medium-term, and would it bet better to lighten up and then redeploy lower, or hold for the inevitable bounce and then lighten up into that strength? Or… is the best action to take no action?
I’ve already built up a solid portfolio of names that I really like and don’t mind holding for the balance of the year, so maybe the best thing is to just not look at the short-term noise and hold the current portfolio for the eventual improvement of sector sentiment and share prices for the 2nd half of this year.
option calls on gold generals like aem looking increasingly decent for a fling.
Also try two steps OTM in GDX (at the right time).
Why I think, if anyone cares, the fantastic jobs reports have been about demographics. I am a boomer not quite at retirement age but am now a covid retiree. To replace me physically, although I am healthy and active, isn’t too difficult, but to replace what I have learned after 45 years of work is difficult, hence the attitude of hire two to replace one, then keep the better one, oh, and maybe keep the other one too, just in case. The above is all exasperated by what are now unnecessary govvy job creation schemes.
One of these jobs reports is going to fail big time soon and as usual the Fed will flop to the other side. I think Tiff of the Bank of Canada has it right and Powell is going to look like a liar just like the transitory crap made him out as.
The TSX.v will swing up or fail at this point IMHO.
The Canadian dollar has completely filled its Nov. 4 gap and hasn’t been so oversold since Sept. If it breaks 72 it probably won’t be by much.
BTW, I think the reason the job market will fail is as a boomer retires in harder times the employer will be much less incentivized to hire one replacement let alone two, that’s when the new job numbers could do a faceplant.
Good points Dan. It is going to be interesting to see if this Friday’s job number is a bloated piece of fantasy fiction like the last one, or if it misses the expectations. Regardless of the what the “official” numbers are, I’m sure it will create some exaggerated moves in markets. Time to get out the popcorn!
(TSXV: ATC) (OTCQB: ATADF) ATAC Resources Ltd. Announces Letter of Intent with Hecla Mining Company (NYSE:HL)
21 Feb 2023