Erik Wetterling – Retail Resource Investors Are Asleep At The Wheel, While The Big Boys Are Going Shopping
Erik Wetterling, Founder and Editor of The Hedgeless Horseman website, joins us to recap his boots on the ground takeaway from the Prospectors and Developers Association of Canada (PDAC) conference, where he noted retail investors were mostly not engaged and yet many of the larger investors, producers, and multi-national conglomerates were out talking with junior explorers and development companies and looking to take strategic positions.
We discussed a few anecdotal encounters he saw like some of the Hecla Mining (HL) team visiting with Western Alaska Minerals (WAM) booth, or several folks from Japanese mining and manufacturing conglomerates visiting multiple times with Magna Mining (NICU) at their booth. This led to chatting about how, case in point, after the PDAC that B2Gold (BTO) (BTG) took a strategic stake in Snowline Gold (SGD) for a large premium. We also reviewed how recently AngloGold Ashanti (AU) took a strategic earn-in position in Inflection Resources (AUCU), or Newcrest Mining (NCM) took a strategic earn-in position in Headwater Gold (HWG), or that Freeport MacMoRan just took a strategic earn-in position in ArcWest Exploration (AWX). It is clear that this trend of larger Majors positioning in Juniors along with high net worth investors, capital groups, multi-national mining conglomerates, and even manufacturers is on the rise and will continue with juniors valued at such attractive levels.*
We wrap up with getting Erik’s final big picture takeaways from the PDAC convention, if he’d go back, if he’d truly gotten an edge by going as an investor, and if nothing else the sentiment gauge it offered on the sector and the ability to size up the character of mining management teams in person.
*In full disclosure, the companies mentioned by Erik in this interview, are positions held in his personal portfolio, and are also site sponsors of The Hedgeless Horseman website.
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As mentioned earlier, a silver breakout next week should be no surprise and that of course would be great for the entire sector.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p73071713419&a=1350384275
The daily SPY chart is bullish but the action has been labored lately. The trouble SPY has had at resistance this week is likely due to the advanced age of the intermediate cycle and of course the bearish big picture which is worse than most seem to think.
Daily:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=11&id=p33674375701&a=1374866151
When SPX:Gold breaks 2.00 and the fork support immediately below 2.00 (one week from today?) look out below! I am not at all convinced that stocks will crash in dollars but they sure could easily crash in gold/real money.
Monthly SPX:Gold:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX%3A%24GOLD&p=M&yr=35&mn=3&dy=0&id=p36022412496&a=1104681131&r=1679707635423&cmd=print
The weekly chart is not pretty!
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX%3A%24GOLD&p=W&yr=7&mn=9&dy=0&id=p12444520906&a=942651397
I forgot to address the obvious on that chart. No I do not think that nearby blue fork support will hold, at least not for long.
SPX:HUI monthly:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX%3A%24HUI&p=M&yr=25&mn=11&dy=0&id=t7359398531c&a=1184947781&r=1679709237383&cmd=print
It will take years but SPX:HUI will take out its 2011 low.
How long before the price of gold is more than the DJIA, and will they cross when gold is 8K, 12K, or
20K? Last time gold was higher than the Dow was 1981 when Jimmy Carter was president, and Biden make Carter look a genius.
Mr Market is Statistically an idiot
Erik Wetterling – The Hedgeless Horseman – March 23, 2023
“Below are three junior explorers that all are backed by Major miners…”
“I could add other examples but he point remains. Either the major mining companies are totally braindead or the prices set by retail investors right now is totally brain dead. And there is an overwhelming amount of evidence pointing to the latter.”
“If one built a diversified portfolio of junior companies with thumbs up by majors or other smart money it should be (almost) statistically impossible to lose if one threw away the password to the brokerage account for a few years (Forced HODL). This is not the first time the sector has gotten this out of whack but I would say the current opportunities are way better than the 2015/2016 bottom, when almost no mine made any money and producers were near bankruptcy. Today it is totally different but the retail driven junior sector doesn’t seem to be aware as the absolute valuations are not too far off from said bottom.”
“I hereby conclude that this sector is easy to beat, and will always be easy to beat, for any person with common sense and infinite patience. Since only a tiny minority can use those two main tools CONTINUOUSLY almost everyone ends up trading themselves to oblivion and wasting these no brainer lay ups that come around every 8 years or so…”
https://www.thehedgelesshorseman.com/investing-strategies/mr-market-is-statistically-an-idiot/