Craig Hemke – Markets Are Still At The Mercy Of Economic Data Flow

Craig Hemke, Founder of TF Metals Report, joins us to recap a number of economic data points that have been moving markets, and the what macro factors may move the needle moving forward.   We discuss the startling reality that the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th largest US banking collapses ever have just happened in the last 2 months.  Additionally, Craig noted that the recent plunge in regional banks led by the collapse of PacWest Bank over the last 2 days started just 30 minutes after Fed Chair Jerome Powell, tried to reassure markets that we could draw a line under the banking concerns with the takeover of First Republic Bank by JP Morgan. 


Clearly there are still economic challenges emerging from the aggressive rate hiking and monetary tightening cycle the central bank has been engaged in since last year.  We explore what kind of reactions we may see in the general equities, in gold, and silver, and the PM mining stocks should the Fed have to pivot to cuts later this year, versus what could happen if they paused for the balance of the year.   With no FOMC meeting for another 6 weeks, markets will be looking to economic data flow for signals, and with tomorrows jobs numbers being a key report. 




Click here to visit Craig’s site – TF Metals Report.

    May 04, 2023 04:09 PM

    Is PacWest Bank on the brink of collapse? Experts weigh in after shares plummet 50%

    3h ago – ABC News

    “Shares of PacWest Bancorp plunged more than 50% in early trading on Thursday, marking the latest spasm of financial distress after three of the nation’s 30-largest banks fell within a matter of weeks.”

    “In all, PacWest stock has fallen more than 85% this year, erasing hundreds of millions of dollars in value.

    “The Los Angeles-based midsized lender is exploring ‘all options’ as it weighs offers from potential investors as well as the sale of a $2.7 billion loan portfolio,” PacWest said in a statement on Wednesday.

      May 04, 2023 04:12 PM

      Wall Street Falls As PacWest Woes Fuel Fresh Selloff In Regional Banks

      By Ankika Biswas and Sruthi Shankar – Reuters – May 04, 2023

      “U.S. stock indexes fell on Thursday after PacWest’s move to explore strategic options deepened concerns about the health of regional banks, with uncertainty around the path of U.S. interest rates also weighing on the mood.”

      “PacWest Bancorp tumbled 49.7% to a record low after confirming it was exploring strategic options, including a sale, after shares of the regional lender and peers got hammered recently on fears of a worsening banking crisis.”

      “Regulators seized troubled First Republic Bank (OTC:FRCB) on Sunday and JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) agreed to buy majority of its assets, marking the largest U.S. bank failure since the 2008 financial crisis.”

      Regional lenders including KeyCorp (NYSE:KEY), Valley National Bancorp (NASDAQ:VLY) and Zions Bancorp fell between 5.8% and 9.7%. Western Alliance (NYSE:WAL) Bancorp tumbled 43.7%, with trading in the stock halted multiple times. The lender denied a report that it was exploring a potential sale that sent its shares down more than 60%. The KBW Regional Banking index dropped 4.0%, while the S&P 500 Banks index fell 3.3%.”

    May 04, 2023 04:22 PM

    Time to not assume The Fed is failing to correct a bad situation and recognize the Agenda is “more transfer of wealth and power” to Central Banking. We are being duped.

    May 05, 2023 05:48 AM

    FREAKY FRIDAY…………….. Again………………
    .. DUPED DAY…………. and everyday by a FAKE FED….

      May 05, 2023 05:53 AM

      JABBING GOOD NEWS(lol)………
      If, you thought the FAKE FED makes you sick………
      Then we have a perverted healthcare(lol) Drug Dealers…..which should be in prison…
      Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) Inc jumped 3.2% following stronger-than-expected sales for its COVID-19 vaccine for the first quarter.

    May 05, 2023 05:06 AM

    Saturation :
    Possible NatGas Slingshot Bottom.
    PreMarket Island Reversal.
    PMs Remain Strong.
    (NFP Soon!)

    May 05, 2023 05:59 AM

    Newmont Appears To Have Struck $19.5B Gold Merger Deal

    Greg Avery – Denver Business Journal – May 4, 2023

    “It looks like $19.5 billion will be enough for Denver-based Newmont Corp. to strike a deal and buy Australia’s biggest gold miner.”

    “The top executive of Melbourne-based gold producer Newcrest Mining indicated Thursday that the company’s board believed the increased offer made by Newmont (NYSE: NEM) on April 12 is good enough and is inclined to say yes to a deal, according to Bloomberg news service.”

    “The deal would make Newmont, already the world’s biggest gold producer, even bigger.”

    May 05, 2023 05:15 AM

    Employment #s up, Banks in Trouble, Apple Up … things couldn’t be better.

    Hit the metals
    (Zions Bancorp up premarket over 15%. )
    Not sure if there is a correlation between Corporate layoffs and unemployment rate? That’s hard to compute.

      May 05, 2023 05:30 AM

      Yep, both times this year when things were about to go off the rails due to legit economic concerns, and when the PMs were gearing up to break out, then we saw a “surprise” waaaaaay better-than-expected jobs report come to rescue. (oh…. what a shock indeed)

      How can anyone actually take these seriously or believe these reports aren’t being used to “manage” the market expectations?

      These jobs reports are also coming out right after Q1 earnings season, where we saw a sea of dozens of companies laying off thousands and thousands of employees. However, clearly the message from today’s report is “don’t panic, we are not heading towards an economic contraction or recession, and everything is just peachy… because, just look at these fantastic jobs numbers!” This charade is all becoming quite laughable.


      April Job Reports Shocks With 253,000 Jobs Created, Unemployment Falls

      Myles Udland · Head of News Yahoo Finance – Fri, May 5, 2023

      “The April jobs report showed the US labor market remains robust, with more than a quarter million new jobs added to the economy last month as the unemployment rate fell to match its lowest level since May 1969.”

      “The US economy added 253,000 nonfarm payroll jobs last month, with the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropping to 3.4%, data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed Friday.”

      “Economists had expected the report to show nonfarm payrolls rose by 185,000 last month while the unemployment rate was forecast to rise to 3.6%.”

      May 05, 2023 05:32 AM

      Recent survey of homeless revealed thoughts that unemployment rate of 3.4% may be somewhat on the low side.

        May 05, 2023 05:58 AM

        All made up numbers………….. for the Biden reelection committee of liars……….
        ZERO is real…………

          May 05, 2023 05:06 AM

          Think Criminals …. They have no allegiance to politics.

            May 05, 2023 05:39 AM

            Yes, they must pretend the sheeple have leadership…..
            Sheeple have a hard time thinking they are not being lead by a criminal organization…
            Extend and Pretend….. Sheeple think they can vote them out…. lol…..
            Never could, never will……. Thus J the Powell…. Yellen … …little snakes for the cabal…

    May 05, 2023 05:50 AM

    Cinco de Mayo Market Analysis – 5.5.2023

    CEO Technician – 05/05/2023

    May 05, 2023 05:03 AM

    Best Junior Miners to Own in Gold Bull

    By Jordan Roy-Byrne CMT, MFTA • The Daily Gold – May 04, 2023

    “The best stage to buy is at the beginning of a discovery or the months before initial production. We want to generally avoid development companies that are too far from production or stuck in the development stage because their projects are of low quality.”

    >> With that out of the way, let’s focus on these two types of companies.

    “First, I favor small companies with production growth potential. These companies have the asset or assets from which they can grow production. The market always loves growth and pays a premium. Within this group, we want to find the companies that can grow without destroying their capital structure and diluting their shareholders. Look for the companies doing a phased approach or those able to fund growth with limited dilution.”

    “The second type of company are exploration companies that are early in the discovery stage. I try to find explorers that have a discovery or something with defined value (a backstop) that has the potential to grow much larger and more valuable. This is a more difficult task than finding growth-oriented producers because there are far more of these companies and exploration outcomes are much less predictable.”

    May 05, 2023 05:04 AM

    For those that possibly think today’s data falls in the range of counter-intuitive, you may wish to go to
    And listen to the recent Michael Oliver interview.
    Take his Technicals and add to Current Fundamentals and you have a “meaning of life” moment.

    May 05, 2023 05:55 AM

    There are a couple of good articles on:
    Concerning short sellers and bank failures, and as usual, lack of Regulation by Regulators.

    May 05, 2023 05:01 AM

    Took a large position in Barrick today AM. I’m going to ride it out till it hits $25