Craig Hemke – Big Picture Macro Movers In General Markets And The Precious Metals Sector
Craig Hemke, Editor of the TF Metals Report website, joins us to review the macroeconomic data that matters most to the general markets and precious metals sector. We start off looking at the strength of the US economy in relation to other global economies, and how that factors into the move higher in interest rates and the US dollar moves lately. The discussion then shifts over to how initial market reactions to headline numbers would be vastly different if they were the final numbers released retrospectively after revisions downwards.
We then take the discussion over to how all of this filters down into the precious metals sector, and how gold, silver, and the PM mining stocks have reacted, both more recently, but also in context of the larger move coming out of the sector bottom about a year ago in the month of September. We also dive into the Commitment Of Traders (COT) positioning and what that may indicate for gold and silver price action in the near to medium-term.
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SLV tested its 50 week MA all day but real silver has not yet reached its own 50wma so we’ll probably see more weakness tomorrow.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=W&yr=3&mn=7&dy=0&id=p81764172697&a=1350366006
SLV:GLD is down 6 days straight and sitting on speed line support.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV%3AGLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p36055834747&a=1480131604
Weekly Silver:Gold saw its parabolic trend flip “long” last week…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER%3A%24GOLD&p=W&yr=1&mn=9&dy=0&id=p46950957706&a=1493080524
USD is at proven resistance vs gold but still looks bullish…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD%3A%24GOLD&p=W&yr=6&mn=3&dy=0&id=p84424945942&a=1108461951
PM weakness is connected to the rise of DXY; Fine with me ‘cuz still need gas for my car & groceries type things, yanno? Lower PM’s go the easier it is to give Silver for Christmas & I’m a Gold buyer at $1850 Craig, thank you very much!
Don’t think for a minute that we’re not going into even deeper weeds economically…..likely socially too.
If we have a good day today, it is actually possible to have two Friday’s in a row up. The first 3 days of the week erased last week for me. Yesterday green, … So, if decent day might have 2 good Fridays and most of the rest of the time has been maintaing my account status quo. Never know …but, got to remember Lacy Hunt’s call that Recession could start Jan Qtr 2024. Soft landing may go the way of Dewey beating Truman announced in the media somewhere in the Political Past. Wonder what the Vegas odds are on Lacy vs Fed Governors.
Freaky Friday Again 👻🤯
It was a good start but they have been backing it down for several hours. That tells me demand is there until intervention takes over.
Two Years to Bust
Daniel Oliver – Myrmikan Capital – August 16, 2023
“As in 1873, managing the money supply cannot unwind the speculative
mania that the Fed’s credit policy unleashed. To do that requires interest rate increases,
and the Fed, which as late as February 2022 was worrying about deflation, began to tighten
suddenly in March of 2022, seventeen months ago.”
“We are still within the typical twenty-four month period within which few financial
accidents occur (though the sheer magnitude of the debt and rapidity of the interest rate
increases argue for an accelerated timeline). We may speculate as to why this period
exists—most likely because of the term structure of debt, the fact that even the most
reckless institutions have some equity or at least cash to burn through…”
“The initial liquidation is generally the spectacular collapsed of a highly levered,
interconnected financial institution: the New York Warehouse & Security Company, Otto
Heinze and his bank, Penn Central, Franklin National, Lehman, etc. The S&L debacle is an
exception, though in that case the government took the loss. In periods of globalization,
the collapse of a non-U.S. institution can be the trigger, such as Creditanstalt, and it is
possible that the collapse of the absurdly levered Chinese banking system could play that
role today. Commodities collapse; markets tank. In the fiat world, the short squeeze of
paper currency also sends gold reeling, though less than other asset classes. History tells
us what will happen when the accident occurs: the Fed will print, and markets will soar,
especially gold and the miners.”
“Give it some time (though not much). There will be other, larger accidents, and the
Fed will pivot. It always has. There is no choice other than a Great Depression-style
collapse, only worse since debt burdens are much larger. The difference with past episodes
is that military failures in Afghanistan and the Ukraine have put the U.S. in a much worse
geopolitical position. And deficits are already exploding even before Keynesian automatic
stabilizer spending kicks in and taxes dry up.”
“Gold bull markets of the past four decades were driven by easy money, which also lifted
stock markets; a panic out of the dollar would make those look tame, and stocks would go
down not up. It is hard to imagine a better set up for gold or more enticing valuations for
the gold miners.”
https://rambus1.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Two-Years-To-Bust.pdf
“and the Fed will pivot. It always has.” NOT TRUE! When the panic occurred on October 24, 1929, it was because the powerful bankers who were supposed to be able to support prices at any moment, did not show up and pivot as is suggested here.
This time unlike 1929 they cannot pivot because if they do there will be hyperinflation, either way the system will crash. DT
https://tinyurl.com/3y85c8wk
NatGas : OZ Again
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