John Rubino – Commercial Real Estate and WeWork Bankruptcy, US Credit Rating Downgrades, Gold Stocks vs The Gold Price

November 13, 2023

John Rubino, publisher of his newsletter over at Substack joins us to discuss the issues he sees in commercial real estate and the US debt. The WeWork bankruptcy is a starting point but John also brings up private equity being stuck and potentially starting to dump inventory. We then move on to the overall health of the US noting Moody’s recent negative comments on the US credit outlook. Finally we look at the gold stocks continued under performance. We ask when this will finally end. 


Click here to visit John’s Substack account to follow along with his commentary. 

    Nov 13, 2023 13:18 PM

    There are more than 2.2 Million Canadian homeowners that will be renewing their mortgages in the next two years. DT

    Nov 13, 2023 13:35 PM

    Inflation, Commercial Real Estate Among Top Financial Stability Concerns, Fed Survey Shows

    By Pete Schroeder – Reuters – October 20, 2023

    “The chance for persistent inflation to keep interest rates higher and potential losses in the commercial real estate market are among the top concerns of respondents to a Federal Reserve survey on financial stability, the U.S. central bank said on Friday.”

    “The latest version of the central bank’s semiannual report found that three-quarters of survey respondents cited those two issues as prominent near-term risks. Concerns over bank stability following the failure of three large firms this spring were cited by roughly half, similar to levels seen in the May version of the report.”

    Nov 13, 2023 13:36 PM

    Airbnb Rentals Are Plummeting in Its Biggest US Market

    Giulia Carbonaro • November 9th, 2023

    “The drop in Airbnb listings in New York City, which immediately followed the city authority’s strict new laws on short-term rentals in early September, has continued in October, as shown by a recent report shared with Newsweek.”

    Nov 13, 2023 13:50 PM

    The Clearest Sign Yet That Commercial Real Estate Is in Trouble

    Konrad Putzier – Wall Street Journal – Nov. 13, 2023 9:54 am ET

    “Foreclosures are surging in an opaque and risky corner of commercial real-estate finance, offering one of the starkest signs yet that turmoil in the property market is worsening.”

    “Lenders this year have issued a record number of foreclosure notices for high-risk property loans, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis. Many of these loans are similar to second mortgages and commonly known as mezzanine loans.”

    “Mezzanine loans have high interest rates and offer a faster and easier path to foreclose than mortgages. The Journal analysis found notices for 62 mezzanine loans and other high-risk loans this year through October. That is more than double the number for all of last year, and likely the highest total ever for a single year, as higher interest rates and rising vacancies punish the property sector.”

    “The increase in mezzanine-loan foreclosure announcements—while not large in absolute numbers—matters because it offers a more immediate measure of commercial real-estate distress than mortgage foreclosure rates.”

    Nov 13, 2023 13:00 PM

    Gold miners especially explorers are going to get whole lot cheaper if stock market has big sell off due to recession next year. Oil and other commodities could also fall, so right now I don’t think anybody really knows how recession will turn out, soft landing, hard landing or big crash due to debt reaching whopping $34T, real estate crash, inflation remains constant, who knows ????

    Nov 13, 2023 13:54 PM

    So here is the big M&A news today in the gold mining stocks. I’ve been waiting to see some of the cashed up mid-tier producers start grabbing some of these distressed developers.

    (CXB) Calibre and (MOZ) Marathon Announce Combination to Create a High-Growth, Cash Flow Focused, Mid-Tier Gold Producer in the Americas with Expected Annual Production of 500,000 ounces

    13 Nov 2023

      Nov 13, 2023 13:57 PM

      It would not surprise me if we saw a string of these transactions from the mid-tiers taking over the better developers.

      First it was B2Gold taking over Sabina.
      Now it is Calibre taking over Marathon.

      Who will be next?

      Nov 13, 2023 13:03 PM

      Newfoundland has become the 4th largest gold mining jurisdiction, it is drawing a lot of eyes, one of them is Bellevue Gold an ASX miner that has been kicking tires in The Baie Verte region. Newfoundland is no longer off the radar. DT

        Nov 13, 2023 13:06 PM

        Yep, there are lots of resource companies vying for attention in Newfoundland for sure.

        Marathon was one of the most advanced gold resource projects, and it is very nice to see Calibre scoop them up while sector valuations are so low. CXB sold off hard on the news which is par for the course with any acquiring company when the news breaks, due to the dilution, but in this case the acquisition of millions of ounces of gold in a good jurisdiction is well worth the candle.

          Nov 13, 2023 13:12 PM

          I’ve been waiting for CBX to take a hit and this is great news and it will sell off even more. It’ll then be time to take a position.

            Nov 13, 2023 13:20 PM

            Everything seems to still be selling off, I was looking at Silver Tiger and at one point it dropped to 13.5 cents CDN today. You could be right I am only buying a few select stocks which I sell as soon as I see a profit of 10-20%, but I had a winner with Bayhorse Silver that went up 130% in ten days, that was nice. DT

            Nov 14, 2023 14:20 AM

            Hi Doc – Good plan on grabbing Calibre CXB on the recent draw down from the announcement of the takeover of Marathon Gold. Using volatility to one’s advantage is one of the best strategies with commodities and resource stocks.

            I’ve had a profitable position in Calibre for a while now and it’s been one of my better performers and stocks that stayed in the “green” in my portfolio, but if we see the selling intensify at all, I’ll likely throw another log on the fire in that position, because I remain impressed with their grade-driven growth and continued exploration success expanding resources and finding new areas to develop.

            Nov 14, 2023 14:22 AM

            Hi DT. Yep, Silver Tiger has been on the clearance rack, despite putting out both an encouraging resource estimate on the larger project, and the recent PEA on the open-pit gold portion of their project.

            Good trading on Bayhorse and well done!

            Nov 14, 2023 14:52 AM

            I have been watching CXB very closely today and IMO only, it looks like a large seller or a large short seller is capping the price under $1.20, this is my opinion only! I think if you are a large enough short seller that it is a good investment to drive a stock in the position of CXB down with the “sell the news” axiom.


            Nov 14, 2023 14:52 AM

            Hi Dan – Good thoughts and the point on the price games being played by those that can effectively use FUD and news to drive a price down and benefit on the short side, or create enough volume to create a price wall. We see it a lot in many stocks (not just resource stocks) and some of these funds are able to throw their weight around for short periods of time in advantageous ways for their positioning.

            Nov 14, 2023 14:24 AM

            If there is a short position built up over the last few days then I hope it gets overwhelmed by the small investors piling in. I have some stock and think this company has huge potential along with it’s ongoing concerns looked after with good current sales.

          Nov 13, 2023 13:16 PM

          NEM is plumbing new lows and if HL takes out $3.50 on a monthly close, watch out below. This rally in gold was essentially a geopolitical move and doesn’t have a financial change to support it. 2024 will in all probability be a tough year for most markets.

            Nov 13, 2023 13:04 PM

            Looks CDE going below $2 this week

            Nov 14, 2023 14:49 AM

            Doc, I have an alternative theory. NEM put a long term top in 2022 and what comes will be a slow grind down.

            Nov 14, 2023 14:17 AM

            Newmont (NEM), Coeur (CDE), and First Majestic (AG) are examples of the larger producers now trading down near their 2020 “pandemic crash” lows.

            Most thought those spike low price levels in March of 2020 were just an outlier anomaly caused by exogenous events, and that we’d not see those prices again…. and yet here we are…. where even some of the more established names in the space are flirting with those prices. In contrast to then, the metals prices today are dramatically higher than where those prior lows came in during March of 2020 when alarmists thought the world was ending. One could shrug off those lows at that time, but the reality that many stocks are back to those levels in today’s current backdrop is more confounding.

            Yes, costs have increased some, and margins have contracted from their all-time highs in 2020, but it doesn’t begin to explain away the insane valuations many of these companies are getting at present with Gold in the $1960s and Silver above $23.

            The average cost in the industry for gold producers at present is around $1350 (taking into account those inflationary cost increases) and so at $1950 gold that is still a $600 margin. In 2010 the average margin was $440, and in 2011 at the peak of the mania the average margin was $620.

            The valuations in the same mining stocks then were 2-3 times higher in many cases… so again, “margin compression” in recent years doesn’t begin to explain away these valuations. A current $600 margin for gold producers is fantastic, and is also higher than at the 2016 peak where companies were getting a $450 margin and the mining stocks were still valued higher than where they were at the 2020 peak margin of $800.

            Again, anyone that looks at these valuations and the companies margins can quickly deduce “margin contraction” from “rising costs” doesn’t come anywhere close to explaining the current valuations or sour sentiment in the sector.

            Nov 14, 2023 14:53 PM

            Cali, without a doubt NEM put in a long term top in 2022. The monthly and especially quarterly charts make that clear. However, I think it is very close to cementing a very important low now that it has fallen close to 60% and reached an area of broad price support (the highs of 2016, 2018, 2019). Last month was very important for gold and the bulls are again in control so I doubt that NEM will go much lower from here. Turning NEM’s big charts bullish again will take plenty of time but that’s fine since it can (will) go up significantly in the process.

        Nov 13, 2023 13:29 PM

        Maybe you are a Newfie, DT. LOL

          Nov 13, 2023 13:59 PM

          Brumple, you aren’t smart enough to be a Newfie! LOL! DT 😊🤣😁🤩

    Nov 13, 2023 13:06 PM

    The Coming Currency Crisis: An Interview With John Rubino

    Collapse Life – Nov 11, 2023

    “John Rubino, a prolific financial author and analyst, joins Collapse Life to talk about the waning power of the U.S. dollar on the international scene, how a coming currency crisis will inevitably affect average Americans, and what we can do to prepare for what’s on its way.”

    Nov 14, 2023 14:08 AM

    Gold SWOT: Palladium dropped below $1,000 an ounce for the first time in five years

    Nov 14, 2023 14:13 AM

    Selling MInes……………… humm
    Newmont Corp., the world’s top gold producer, will forge ahead on a plan to find $2 billion in cash (including through mine sales and project divestments) after closing the largest takeover in the mining industry this year. Denver-based Newmont closed its roughly $15 billion acquisition of Newcrest Mining Ltd. on Monday, ending a nearly year-long effort to buy the Australian gold miner. Now, with all regulatory hurdles out of the way, Newmont CEO Tom Palmer says the combined company can start a process to sell mines and decide which exploration projects to prioritize over the next two years.
    Newmont has not decided whether to sell the Cripple Creek & Victor gold mine following its $15 billion takeover of Australia’s Newcrest Mining, the largest transaction in gold-mining history. However, Chief Executive Tom Palmer said the mine was smaller than many of the operations that Newmont now owns, and the company wants to raise some $2 billion from selling mines and rescheduling developments.

    Nov 14, 2023 14:15 AM

    I am reposting this……………….
    Peter Grandich……

    Go to the 18 min mark

    Nov 14, 2023 14:19 AM

    the Federal Reserve (apart from the Federal Reserve System) and the International Monetary Fund are owned by two separate groups of foreign interests, one founded in the wake of the Civil War (Federal Reserve) and one founded by ex-patriots that owned primary shareholder positions in Standard Oil (International Monetary Fund).

    the Federal Reserve and IMF have colluded to cheat their Creditors for decades.

    Nov 14, 2023 14:31 AM

    Record crowds during India’s most important celebration on Sunday could potentially be positive news for the gold market.

    Sunday, millions of people in India and around the world celebrated Diwali, the Hindu festival of light. The five-day festival is an important event for the global gold market as India is one of the world’s top gold-consuming nations and the precious metal is often given as a gift during the holidays.

    A BILLION PEOPLE………….can not be wrong…… lol…… 🙂

      Nov 14, 2023 14:26 AM

      I live in a neighborhood with mostly 1st and 2nd generation folks from India, and they’ve been celebrating Diwali all of last week, and end up putting up Christmas lights for it all over the neighborhood and then set off fireworks on key evenings. I like their vibe and their festival of light.

      Some of the younger people also did a Diwalloween festival of Light / Dark mixing Diwali with Halloween in a big dance party in early November. I found that interesting and it gave me a chuckle to see the mashup of cultures and a sense of humor. Fun times!

        Nov 14, 2023 14:41 AM

        I live in a University town with many grad students from India. They are top-notch.

          Nov 14, 2023 14:58 AM

          Yep, most of my Indian neighbors are doing quite well in the tech sector or medical sector and are very sharp with good career paths just in the conversations I’ve had and the stories they’ve shared. They celebrate the opportunities in the US as immigrants or children of immigrants much more so than many people I’ve met that were born here and overlook or ignore all the opportunities that exist.

    Nov 14, 2023 14:56 AM

    A McKibben With Fries – The environmental left wants to force Biden’s hand on US LNG exports.

    Doomberg – Nov 14, 2023

    “Western Europe managed to avoid a cataclysmic humanitarian disaster in the winter of 2022-2023 for three reasons. First, it was blessed with an unusually warm winter. Contrary to the narratives spun by climate alarmists, there are some advantages to a warming planet, and you can count Germany among the early beneficiaries. Second, coal was stockpiled and burned in huge volumes, making a mockery of European efforts to vilify its use. Finally, an armada of liquified natural gas (LNG) carriers—transporting fuel largely produced in the US—was diverted to the Old Continent, much to the chagrin of billions of citizens in the developing world.”

    “Europe’s ability to partially offset lost Russian natural gas with US-derived LNG is testimony to the technological and engineering miracles routinely on display in the shale patch. In a little over a decade, the US reestablished itself as the world’s preeminent energy superpower, becoming the global leader in both oil and natural gas production. The country, which had zero LNG export capacity, is now the largest seller of the stuff. Billions continue to be poured into the sector in pursuit of a globally harmonized market. In the long term, the arbitrage opened by wide regional price swings will be closed, and energy-hungry citizens the world over will benefit.”

    “Of course, nothing infuriates the progressive environmental left like seeing growing global energy demand being met with ample supply and shutting down US LNG exports has suddenly become one of their top priorities. Like all good environmental scare campaigns, this one comes complete with a molecular villain: methane leaks. For a sense of the hyperbole brewing among the anti-energy crowd, we turn to an article written for The New Yorker by Bill McKibben, a man we have previously described as being “so revered by the climate consortium that he has been bestowed with no less than 20 honorary degrees from various institutions of higher learning.” When it comes to dour alarmism, McKibben rarely disappoints, and this time is no different…”

      Nov 14, 2023 14:10 AM

      Didn’t the US have to blow up Russia’s pipelines to make their LNG system work….nice?

        Nov 14, 2023 14:49 PM

        Yes Terry, that was the plan The US was sabotaging the pipelines when they were being built long before they were blown up. They couldn’t stop The Russians from building the pipelines, they sure tried hard, and, in the end, they just blew them up. The plan all along was to make Europe dependent on gas from the US. If you can control a country’s energy supply, you can control everything including their industry and their government, and if you want their industry to move to The US because the energy is cheaper that too will happen. DT

    Nov 14, 2023 14:54 PM

    I said on Sunday that the miners are a buy and today there’s no shortage of double-digit gainers. Gold also got beat down by silver which I mentioned needed to happen.
    The silver miners look better vs the gold miners than they have since at least August.
    SILJ:GDX 130 min…

      Nov 14, 2023 14:33 PM

      You were right and here is how my Schwab account handled it and IBKR is similar but:
      More up than down, but Friday worked back from open to + .93%, Monday worked back from open to + 1.14% and Today worked back from open to + 1.32%. Had 7 double digits and 3 over + 20% …. But had enough in the red to achieve only + 1 %. Such a bold-face algo bunch of crap. … just because the Banks can’t earn an honest living in a traditional way. A RICO case of magnificent size begging to be pursued.

    Nov 14, 2023 14:57 PM

    IPT hit a 5 year low this morning before putting in a bullish engulfing candle.

    Nov 14, 2023 14:50 PM

    For those new to the metals game, and I wish I could remember dates … but someone in Congress years ago knew that The Fed and bullion banks were screwing up the commodities market and at some time would lose control… got a bill through Congress: permitting Wall Street and The Fed or whoever, to cap daily changes to 2% for the metals or gold … well we may be seeing a lot of caps in the near future. Just keep it in mind when things continue to not make sense.