Weekend Show – Dave Erfle & Dana Lyons – 2025 Outlook For Metals Investors, Equities and Technical Analysis
Welcome to the KE Report Weekend Show! This Weekend Show is all about investing in resource sector equities, from majors to juniors to the ETFs.
Looking past just the GDX or GDXJ, there are a lot of resource stocks, mostly miners but some more advanced developers as well, that are at or near all time highs. The juniors are still lagging and volumes are still relatively low. What does this mean for 2025? It’s a question we focus on a lot this weekend.
We hope you all have a great weekend. If you are in Vancouver next weekend for any of the conferences please reach out and we can meet up at the conference or for a drink.
- Segment 1 & 2 – Dave Erfle, Editor of the Junior Miner Junky kicks off the Weekend Show outlining his outlook for resource stocks (mostly precious metals equites) for 2025. We start by discussing the current challenges and opportunities within the resource stocks, particularly the impact of Western investment demand, market corrections, and sector rotations from AI and crypto to undervalued resource stocks. Dave also talks about the importance of company catalysis in investment decisions and the potential for exciting M&A in 2025. The discussion covers themes such as constructing a personalized GDXJ-style portfolio, the expected performance of gold and silver stocks, and the broader economic factors influencing these investments.
- Click here to visit the Junior Miner Junky website to learn more about Dave’s investment letter.
- Segment 3 & 4 – Dana Lyons, Fund Manager and Editor of The Lyons Share Pro wraps up the show sharing his technical analysis of the major commodities; gold, silver, copper, il and natural gas. Dana also shares insights into the U.S. equity markets, providing both short-term and long-term outlooks based on internal models and historic trends. We also discuss interest rates, the U.S. Dollar, and Bitcoin.
- Dana is extending his holiday sale at The Lyons Share Pro. For 20% off please email me at Fleck@kereport.com or Dana directly at dlyons@jlfmi.com. For all you traders it’ll be worth your time to test out his subscription service.
I just read …..BLACKROCK….is pulling away from the same…..
BlackRock Exits UN-Backed Net-Zero Climate Pact
Tyler Durden’s Photo
by Tyler Durden
Saturday, Jan 11, 2025 – 08:45 AM
Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager overseeing approximately $11.5 trillion in assets, has decided to withdraw from a climate pact backed by the United Nations (UN) that advocates for aggressive de-carbonizing of the economy.
https://www.fibonomics.com/2025/01/markets-stan-harley-top.html
Markets : Stan Harley Top Confirmed : Natural Gas
Natural Gas (backup): https://www.tradingview.com/x/P4Cg01SO/
Nice Nat Gas chart BDC. Thanks for sharing it here with the KER crew.
My pleasure. (The “Natural Gas” link, under the QQQ chart, now works.)
Re: Dana Lyons comments.
Natural Gas is a high beta commodity, but extreme volatility as seen in 2022 is not common. That was due to an explosion at a major LNG plant (Freeport LA) and also a potential rail strike which would have cut coal supplies to many power plants.
Being structurally volatile, with a relatively clear cyclic nature, once a general trend begins NatGas can be successfully traded with futures or ETFs (stops always in place).
Traditionally, weather is its primary price driver, but increasing demand for energy in general, and for industrial uses, is having an important effect. Less capital intensive Nuclear Energy may well become more prevalent; however, this will likely fill other needs, and Oil is still critically important. BDC
Yes, the seasonal weather cyclicality and inventory drops or builds are the main drivers for nat gas, but I believe all the effects from the LNG terminals in Canada and the US will start to be felt in 2025, and especially moving into 2026. There is a large delta between domestic and European or Asian nat gas prices, and companies selling product into the LNG contracts, as well as the midstream-services companies and pipeline companies stand to do very well over the next couple years.
Well put, with energy fulfillment across the board, our goal.
Ex, there are currently no LNG export facilities in Canada. The conservative party wants to build them but that will have to happen when they assume power and can build these facilities. There is one under construction in Kitimat BC. but the present government is anti-fossil fuel. It will get built but it won’t be completed by this year, and it will probably require a new government to move it forward. DT
I guess I was thinking of the 4 LNG liquefaction facilities and 2 LNG import facilities that Canada currently has. We’ve had Josef Schachter, Dan Steffens, and Sean Brodrick discuss the LNG terminals that are coming in both the US and Canada, and since some of the US ones were completed, I was thinking that Canada had 1 completed and another coming online this year, but maybe the timelines have been pushed back as you say.
There are 7 LNG export projects in development in Canada. That is a substantial amount of future export capacity that is coming and a growing demand factor.
When combined with the US LNG export terminals built, currently under construction, and planned, then the point is really the same about the increasing demand likely to lift pricing. There will be the opportunity for oil & gas and service companies to capture the delta between domestic pricing and European or Asian pricing of nat gas. In addition to the need for more nat gas power plants, this LNG exporting will also create more overall demand, and will likely underpin higher nat gas prices in the US and Canada over the next 1-3 years.
It’s going to be an interesting sector to follow for sure…
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Canadian liquified natural gas projects
“There are seven liquefied natural gas (LNG) export projects and one infrastructure project in various stages of development in Canada. Cumulatively, these projects represent a possible capital investment of almost $109 billion and a potential production capacity of 50.3 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) of LNG.”
“All of the export projects are in British Columbia. Additionally, there are four LNG liquefaction facilities, and two LNG import facilities, operating in Canada that serve the domestic market. Most operate at low volumes.”
“LNG Canada, in Kitimat, BC, will be Canada’s first large-scale LNG export facility once complete, aiming for first exports by 2025. The majority of the other projects target beginning operations between 2027 and 2030.”
NatGas Update (Gap Up) : https://www.tradingview.com/x/YaaBrVo2/
Commodities Update – Gold, Silver, Copper, Uranium, and Nat Gas
Excelsior Prosperity w/ Shad Marquitz 01-11-2025
https://excelsiorprosperity.substack.com/p/commodities-update-gold-silver-copper
I hear you on the copper Ex. So hard to decipher where things stand with the global economy. US looks like it may have pulled off the soft landing but need more data to confirm it. China looking like they will throw everything and the kitchen sink into stimulating their economy all while we have the unknown variable of trade wars as the carrot top clown sabre rattles with tariffs and taking over Greenland Panama Canal and Canada
I’m still in the camp that copper demand will outpace supply with all the AI infrastructure needed and despite others thoughts,the EV and hybrid markets growth.
Way overweighted in magna but never felt so comfortable with my holdings. So far the yr of the wolf2.0 has been solid. Cheers
Good points Wolfster. Yeah, like I mentioned in the article, I’m a fan of copper in the longer-term, as there is not enough new mine supply coming online to meet the growing demand, but I don’t know if it is a “now” thing, or later this year or next year thing.
Last year when copper ran to $5.199, I was all over it in the months leading up to that and captured some nice gains in the copper developers and producers. However I scaled back or sold most of my copper positions over the 2nd half of last year and have not been tempted to start many new positions, with the exception of Magna (when they went into copper/nickel/PGM production last fall), and Denarius towards the end of the year. I still have positions in Arizona Sonoran, Faraday Copper, and Surge Copper for the developers. Additionally, I lament my hesitation to have failed to get into position with both Regulus and Aldebaran, but they’ve both ripped so hard over the last year, that they’d have to pull back quite a bit for me to get into positions at this point. I was in COPX and COPJ a few different times last year to trade the larger producers and smaller producers/developers respectively via those ETFs but don’t have either position on at this point.
I have enough copper exposure that if it rips higher then I’ll be happy and adjust course accordingly on a momentum trade. However, right now I see more immediate opportunity in the PM stocks and uranium stocks (if they can get out of their funk). Nat Gas has been epic the 2nd half of 2024 into early 2025, so I’m considering adding in more gassers to the mix, but it can turn on a dime and I’d love a nice short-term washout to get into more positions.
May you have good trading in 2025. Cheers!
Can’t disagree with anything you said Ex. This past fridays numbers threw me off. They showed a stronger economy than I anticipated. Even here in Canada rate cuts aren’t as straightforward as so many of us expected.
Can’t disagree with anything you said Ex. This past fridays numbers threw me off. They showed a stronger economy than I anticipated. Even here in Canada rate cuts aren’t as straightforward as so many of us expected.
Nevertheless, in a matter of weeks Fartcoin has skyrocketed from an initial market cap (ICO) of $3 million on October 18 to a recent peak of $1.5 billion on January 3rd. That’s a 510X gain in barely 70 days, including weekends and Christmas.
Irrational exuberance! Fartcoin is on a tear! To think I missed such a great investment! LOL! DT 🤣😉👍
Following the rise in Fartcoin has been a gas. Granted, most of the valuation is full of hot air…
Fartcoin’s price has been imploding lately, and fell by 44.93% in just the past week.
Unfortunately for HODL’ers of Fartcoin, a lot of that hot air has leaked out of the valuation, where it cut the cheese from a $1.5 billion peak to a mere $761 million in market cap at present.
Maybe speculators will hold their noses and keep buying more of this valuable asset class, and let it rip once again.
Good toilet humor, your Father would be proud.
🙂 The fact that Fartcoin became a cryptocurrency more richly valued than many legit small cap companies, is too funny to pass up on, and speaks to the absurdity of these current markets.
As an update, Fartcoin did end up ripping higher today, back up to a $1Billion valuation.
Maritime Resources has finished refurbishing The Pine Cove Mill and is getting ready to process ore possibly from New Found Gold, Maritime’s stock has been dead in the water for a long time and now it has started to move. The Pine Cove Mill is ripe to be acquired, the drama could heat up there is another gold producer nearby that could also be interested in this asset. DT
I believe that there is a future for Ev’s but not now the technology hasn’t caught up with what is needed to make them viable. The amount of copper alone is ridiculous, from transmission lines to charging stations to the actual amount of copper required to build these vehicles. The government should let the market decide instead of throwing taxpayers’ money in the toilet for a product whose time hasn’t come and thinking that they know what is best for the consumers. Most government decisions are accidents waiting for a place to happen. DT
Chinese know something we don’t. Oil is limited while electrons are evwrywhere.
‘Speculation Has Run Amok’
Jesse Felder – The Felder Report (01/11/2025)
“Speculation has run amok on Nasdaq,” writes Helene Meisler. “And it’s not as though the speculation stops at the stocks themselves. It veers right into options land as well.”
Of course, options aren’t the only form of leverage available to traders these days. Leveraged ETFs have also exploded in popularity. “If we proxy these levered funds as alternative for margin debt, nearly $1T in additional leverage has been added in the last 15 months,” writes Mike Green.
And, as Ruchir Sharma notes, “Momentum runs tend to reinforce the assumption that good times will roll, pulling in retail investors in the late stages. That’s happening now. American consumers have not been more bullish on US stocks since surveys began tracking this sentiment. Momentum investing looks poised to crash in a way that could hit many investors hard.”
Current NatGas : https://www.tradingview.com/x/jcw36x6t/
THIS IS IMPORTANT: US banks abandon Mark Carney climate initiative. The sooner our governments start trying to address real problems that afflict our society the better. In Canada our economy is the worst it has ever been because of the silly notion that we must save the planet by protecting our environment, while the elites jet around the World and their citizens can’t afford proper food or shelter. Mark Carney is no stranger to Canadians he was the governor of The Bank of Canada and went on to head The Bank of England. He was advising Chrystia Freeland our finance minister on economic matters and she had to resign because of the reckless government spending that caused our deficit to balloon. In Canada his nickname is “Carbon Tax Carney.”
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/topstories/ahead-of-trump-presidency-u-s-banks-abandon-mark-carney-climate-initiative/ar-BB1rgCvk