Bob (aka BDC) – Technical Analysis On Gold, GDX, Silver, And The US Dollar
We are back with another special technical analysis video with long-time KE Report blog contributor Bob (aka BDC). We review some prepared charts analyzing gold, GDX, silver, and the US Dollar, through the lens of various technical tools like Fibonacci levels, Chapman Waves, and Gartley Patterns.
Bob also shares the value and functionality of his proprietary Saturation Table, which demonstrates trend quality via numeric signals for spotting potential market turns at tops and bottoms in a given sector ETF or equity.
Click here to follow Bob’s technical analysis at his website Fibonomics
Since January 2001 the 30 year T-bond is down 91% vs Gold.
https://schrts.co/kqaGzkjV
Data aside this ia beautiful writing
Thanks, I did not expect that!
Matthew, I understand your thinking, and admit (maybe mentioned) that my ideas are influenced by the possibility of a Gold backed currency which in current Dollar terms would equate to a range centered around $3000, as speculated upon here:
https://www.fibonomics.com/2025/03/american-dollar-gold-backing.html
Gold rising significantly above these precincts would likely reflect a collapse of unknown duration and unimaginable destruction. Such may be near, but I plan on better. BDC
BrianE, here’s a quarterly look at NDX as it relates to Silver:
https://schrts.co/TvXCtwxc
In 2019 Jim Sinclair predicted gold could reach 50 K in 2025, so I will not sell any or worry about corrections for a long time.
Matthew, Terry, Bonzo et al;
If I’m pretty much right about a top, and you have the inclination, please study this:
https://www.fibonomics.com/2025/04/gdx-put-option-pricing.html
Very little GDX price movement produced gains of 122% and 190% using Put Options. When the bottom eventually forms, particularly if presaged by Charts and Saturation, the Call Option Setup will make those numbers appear paltry as the PMs head North.
Patience! BDC
P.S. Doc: “If we live long enough.” 😉
Thanks BDC, interesting.
As for the gold-backed currency, it seems to me $3,000 is too low but of course there are different ways to do it. I’m for 100% backing.
Regarding the unimaginable destruction implied by a much higher gold price, we’re living it. The dollar has lost almost 99.5% of its value over the last 100 years and it was less than 20 years ago that people, including so-called experts, were saying we wouldn’t want to live in a world with $2,000 gold.
My ultimate target for at least the last 15 years has been over $8000 but now that looks like a conservative minimum. I do not expect it to get there without a serious correction along the way.
” I’m for 100% backing.” : Right On !!
When gold hit its intraday high of $873 in 1980 M2 money supply was worth about 6.5 times as much as the US gold hoard of 261.5 million ounce. Today, M2 is worth 24.7 times the US gold hoard assuming $3,350 gold. In other words, gold would have to be about $14,500 today in order to reach the same relative valuation that we saw in 1980.
I wanted to use M1 for this comparison but its definition changed significantly in May, 2020 so it wouldn’t have been an apples-to-apples comparison. The definition of M2 has also changed but not nearly as much from what I can tell.
The future, as always, is what we make of it.
I think BDC’s charts/reasoning for tops in gold and GDX are sound but I don’t see significant tops here at all – definitely not a 6 or 7 hundred dollar drop or a top lasting the rest of the year let alone years like the 2020 and 2016 tops. Those days are over and even the move from 1999 to 2011 is most likely a bad template for the current move. Systemic crisis potential is vastly greater now and that potential can be seen clearly in gold’s behavior over the last year+. In late 2023 I posted a quarterly gold chart with the claim that gold had the “perfect setup for a huge move lasting years”. Gold was about 2000 at the time and by the end of the quarter that immediately followed gold was up almost $200. The big move had begun and true to bull market behavior few seemed to notice for most of the trip higher.
Right now I think gold can quickly add another $400 or so before reaching a high that might last for awhile but still not years. And that assumes no real crisis happens. The downside to all this gold strength and crisis risk is that our miners might not take off in earnest until there’s some kind of resolution or perceived resolution to the situation. If we do get a top here at the current level a new high would probably happen this year.
Trump will get his rate cuts like he did in his first term because they are coming anyway. The Fed has no choice and considering the repercussions it makes perfect sense to let Trump take the credit.
TLT has collapsed 73% vs Gold since March 2020. That’s quite the safe haven!
https://schrts.co/vNCeUEVQ