Craig Hemke – Silver Breakout, Mining Stock Rotation, and Copper’s Tariff Spike
Craig Hemke, Founder and Editor of TF Metals Report, joins us for a wide-ranging discussion on precious and base metals, recorded Monday, July 14th.
Silver has broken out above multi-year resistance, with junior silver stocks leading the charge. Craig walks through what’s fueling this breakout, including speculative flows, tariff impacts, and positioning in the COMEX market.
We also discuss:
- Why silver is vastly outperforming gold and how the gold-silver ratio is driving sentiment
- How mining stocks are reacting, with smaller stocks outperforming majors like Agnico and Newmont
- Copper’s sharp move higher on new U.S. tariff announcements, and why Trump’s unpredictable stance is fueling volatility
- A cautionary take on silver hype, commercial short positions, and how bull markets typically unfold
- Inflation data, options expiry, and what to watch heading into the end of the week
Keep thinking it’s about to really pop and go ballistic.
Daily BBB:
https://schrts.co/dykkJJcT
There’s not much resistance above .45 for IPT.
https://schrts.co/VUKMwysi
Fact it’s green today really shows how strong this move is. Not going full consolidation mode like most silvers today
I agree. It’s been a picture of strength since breaking out 33 trading days ago…
https://schrts.co/WKVhaJCt
Silver is down more than gold today but SILJ is still up versus GDX and looks like it’s getting reading to run significantly higher.
https://schrts.co/wYuvsrBz
SLV:GDX is way off its recent low but still below last year’s low. I think it’s going much higher.
https://schrts.co/hMcTtxCE
HL filled Friday’s gap and is now 3% above today’s low.
https://schrts.co/NPfjHpfv
Remember, Abbra had a reverse 1:5 split 14months ago , up 130% since.
Mathew, I’d long ago followed you into Brixton. My full position has averaged down to about break even. How high do you anticipate this going?
Buzz, I wish I could give you a worthwhile target but I don’t believe that’s possible. There are just too many variables in play. The fact that it’s an explorer and not a producer obviously doesn’t help with projections. However, based on its properties (size/number/quality), its drill results so far and my outlook for copper, gold and silver, I believe that it is a very worthy speculation. The sector has been so starved of capital and investor interest for so long that Brixton and many companies like it will probably go 5x to 10x easily and long before the bull market matures. However, the possibilities are way beyond 10x because we have the bull market of a lifetime developing along with real potential for great drill results.
The 40 year-old bond bull ended with a bang a few years ago but not many seem to grasp what that means besides higher interest rates. And most don’t know that anything has changed at all. Remember when many thought that rising interest rates were going to be bad for gold? Such misguided thinking caused gold to close lower for 7 consecutive months in 2022 until it bottomed around $1,600. I called that low a bear trap at the time and it was. The low happened in September of ’22 with the Fed funds rate at 2.56% and the low monthly close happened in October with the FFR at 3.08%. Gold then climbed along with the FFR until it doubled. The point is that we are in a big bond bear (interest rate bull) and that means inflation is going to remain a problem, a bigger problem than it’s been in the last 45 years. That’s bad news for stocks, bonds and the economy but good news for all things real, especially the monetary metals. The money that’s going to come into the sector will dwarf the flows of the last 25 years and that’s regardless of good drill results or other company-specific good news. It’s like the ’60s and ’70s again since that was the last time we had a long term bear market in bonds. But now we have far more participation in the markets along with far less knowledgeable participants. So this new gold sector bull could go quite high before Joe and Jill Blow finally begin to take part in a meaningful way.
With all that said, we ultimately must assess the health of the market in real time and be ready for it to do the unexpected because that’s what markets do. Right now, I am not close to thinking about selling.
Thanks, I’ve been positioning in several other plays that are severely punished long-term survivors. For now, a low cost basis & whack a mole keeps me on my toes…
I picked up a little more Brixton yesterday on the backtest of its breakout(s) which happened early last month.
https://schrts.co/sFCwndPI