Craig Hemke – Precious Metals Outlook Ahead of Jackson Hole
Craig Hemke, founder and editor of the TF Metals Report, joins us for his regular Monday discussion to recap the latest in the gold and silver markets and preview what’s ahead this week.
Key Topics Covered:
- Jackson Hole Preview: Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech on Friday is expected to set the tone for gold, the U.S. dollar, and broader markets heading into September.
- Fed Policy & Rate Cuts: Market expectations remain high for a September cut, but will Powell hint at more aggressive easing?
- Gold & Dollar Correlation: Why the recent sideways action could give way to the next breakout move depending on Fed signals.
- Central Bank Demand & Bull Market Longevity: How sustained buying continues to underpin gold’s strength, limiting major sell-offs.
- Gold Stocks & ETFs: With producers showing strong balance sheets what does that mean for investors?
Craig also shares insights on the revaluation of gold miners – from majors to juniors – and what could fuel the next leg higher in this ongoing bull market.
I’m thinking the opening could be a bit ugly in the morning but then back up in the afternoon. DT
The bid/ask near the open should give some guidance. BDC
Maintaining above 1.71 (esp. above 1.73) would be very bullish.
It went 37x in a year and 18x in the last two months. What’s the reason to suspect that it will go much higher before it makes a significant high?
It has now fallen as much as 62% so don’t count on a new high anytime soon.
Charlie Munger explains why you only need 3 stocks to get rich. DT
HydroGraph Adds Growth Strategist and Defense Industry Expert Cordell Bennigson to Its Board! They are definitely looking at Defense contracts! DT
DT: Interesting. Yahoo/HGRAF mention is a 3pm KB meeting today. BDC
https://echelonfront.com/instructors/cordell-bennigson/
Many connections possible. Meeting reason?
https://www.tradingview.com/x/vJBU6kvN/
HGRAF : Rare Pre-Market : 1.70
Bid/Ask : 1.60/1.70
Hi BDC, HydroGraph is hydroplaning again! LOL! DT
Yes. This is delayed 15 minutes. Note the Gap:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/BfuDgMSI/
If current low (1.43) breaks,
calculated target = 1.29
(note past peak).
Looks like same old intervention that has been going on for years.
China’s Strategic 2025 Gold Buying Mandate: Impact on Global Markets
John Zadeh – Discovery Alert – May 16, 2025
“On March 25, 2025, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) issued Directive No. 2025-03, requiring Chinese insurance companies to invest at least 1% of their assets into physical gold. This mandate applies to an estimated ¥32 trillion ($4.5+ trillion) in insurance assets, according to the CBIRC’s 2023 annual report, potentially necessitating hundreds of billions in gold purchases over the implementation period.”
https://discoveryalert.com.au/news/chinas-gold-buying-mandate-2025-markets-impact/
China’s on the right path but they need to be buying the miners. Probably they are saving that idea for their sovereign funds.
Much of this gold already exists in the ground in China. Consider the huge discovery by Hunan Gold. Sure, it is very deep underground but trust the Chinese to find a way to dig it up, even if it is only marginally profitable by American standards. For sure the government is involved, as they are in other projects of this importance.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/vocyyqIt/
HGRAF : This may not hold.
I got out, but it sure was a wild ride, I was in and out of that stock four times. If you don’t believe the markets are a dangerous game, you should probably rethink your trading strategy. I enjoyed every moment stocks like HydroGraph are a rare bird. DT
Hey DT Just curious as to what you need to see before re-entry into Hydrograph?
Hi Rod, I was watching the American market but trading on the CDN exchange (HGRAF) and for now I feel that if it gets above $1.34 US, I will start to get interested again. This stock is very volatile and we will see much more of this in the future. DT
Biggest losses so far in this downturn. Third this year. Powell is going to say something favorable about gold. No other reason to justify this attack of naked shorts. There is no news … so it is an intervention where they don’t want a riot …yet.
Back to mid-June …again.
DT…That’s a great read, I bought a bunch at the close down here in the states!
Tomorrow I won’t be trading, my family is going to The CNE. (Canadian National Exhibition) We go every year and do the same thing, it’s like Groundhog Day! DT
Hi Rod, I hope you are comfortable with trading HydroGraph, the shorts have been very active in this stock especially since it went parabolic. DT
Enjoy your ground hog day DT, those days are very important. Hydrograph is a strange beast, and one that is deep rooted in scientific method. To say i’m comfortable is a stretch but to be honest I have a bad case of fomo. The addition of Cordell Bennigson to me is the game changer that this company needed!
This is a must read by John Hathaway:
https://kingworldnews.com/all-hell-is-going-to-break-loose-soon-as-the-world-teeters-on-the-edge/
Think about NVDA at 30 times sales while reading this:
Thanks to David “Haymaker” Hay of Substack for Figure 3 and the context provided. Stocks trading at 10 times sales are generally considered to be in bubble territory. The illogic of paying this type of valuation for most, but not all, equities was famously articulated by Sun Microsystem’s co-founder and then-CEO Scott McNealy in March 2002.* This was after its stock price had been obliterated in the wake of the first tech bubble’s implosion.
*McNealy quoted in BusinessWeek, 2002:
At 10 times revenues, to give you a 10-year payback, I have to pay you 100% of revenues for 10 straight years in dividends. That assumes I can get that by my shareholders. That assumes I have zero cost of goods sold, which is very hard for a computer company. That assumes zero expenses, which is really hard with 39,000 employees. That assumes I pay no taxes, which is very hard. And that assumes you pay no taxes on your dividends, which is kind of illegal. And that assumes with zero R&D for the next 10 years, I can maintain the current revenue run rate. Now, having done that, would any of you like to buy my stock at $64? Do you realize how ridiculous those basic assumptions are? You don’t need any transparency. You don’t need any footnotes. What were you thinking?
Selling some puts on SQQQ for coffee money.
M2 money supply now is quite large compared to 2000 tech bubble and it’s not just US but the whole world invests in M7 stocks. I mean even Korean millennials are investing in Teslas and NVDAs. Is it in a bubble? I don’t know but Nasdaq is sucking money from every part of the world.
If a stock with a $4.25 trillion market cap isn’t in a Bubble, well I’ll be dammed. DT
Valuations determine bubbles, not the people buying into them. I stand by my view of months ago that it’s over for stocks despite the bounce to new highs and when the Fed starts a new rate cutting cycle, a bear market won’t be far off. Giant tops often take a lot of time to unfold and become obvious.
Technically and fundamentally, buying here is nuts so you can rest assured that those Korean millennials are buying from smart money. Big broad tops form because smart money exits carefully while the bag-holder class confidently goes long. The herd buys because of FOMO and not much else. The higher anything goes the more excited the herd gets. It doesn’t matter which sector of the market we’re talking about. That’s why so many people hated gold for decades after the 1980 top. Dumb money buys tops with reckless abandon. The dot com bubble is an even better example. That epic collapse was inevitable yet dumb money couldn’t have been more confident as it paid through the nose for horrible odds.
And bitcoin is next. It tracks the Nasdaq but of course with leverage so it is in for a rough time.
MSFT currently rates a “sell now, ask questions later” in my book.
https://schrts.co/dIrMZQau
Priced in HUI, MSFT fell 56% between 2/24 and 4/25 so the bounce since April made perfect sense. But now MSFT:HUI is getting ready for an even bigger drop, probably at least 80+%.
https://schrts.co/dIrMZQau
MSFT:GOLD is very similar:
https://schrts.co/KaMPhaZv
https://www.tradingview.com/x/OsovCgOA/
HydroGraph : Consolidation Pull Back