Weekend Show – Dana Lyons & Josef Schachter – Volatility Playbook: Gold, Oil, and the Next Big Market Move
Markets are bouncing, but is the worst really behind us? This weekend’s show looks at the rebound in U.S. equities, gold, and energy, while questioning whether it’s a temporary pause or the start of a new trend. We also dig into the latest moves in oil prices and where value may be emerging for long-term investors.
With volatility still driving market action, our guests provide insights on how to navigate the current environment and what sectors may offer the best risk-reward setups right now.
If you enjoy the show, be sure to subscribe to our podcast feed (KER Podcast), YouTube channel, and follow us on X for more market commentary and company interviews. Don’t forget to subscribe and leave us a review!
Also check out our Substack where we email you summaries of Daily Editorials and the Weekend Show! Click here to check it out.
- Segment 1 & 2 – Dana Lyons, fund manager and editor of The Lyons Share Pro, returns to share his model-driven analysis of U.S. and global markets, cautioning that the recent rebound may be a temporary B-wave ahead of another leg down. He highlights relative strength in international equities and value sectors like utilities and defense, outlines key technical buy levels for gold (GLD), GDX, and GDXJ, and explains why he’s still short oil with further downside potential despite already significant price declines.
- Segment 3 & 4 – Josef Schachter, founder of the Schachter Energy Report, wraps up the show discussing the recent breakdown in oil prices and how it could set up a major buying opportunity in energy stocks. He outlines why he expects a short-term bottom around $55 oil, forecasts a rebound to $80 by year-end, and explains why dividend-paying energy stocks with strong balance sheets and low payout ratios could outperform amid broader market weakness.
Hecla drops 20% after first quarter results
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250501324223/en/Hecla-Reports-First-Quarter-2025-Results
Anybody an idea what’s wrong with the results that justify a crash?
Thomas, those first quarter results weren’t bad at all. I think the selloff had a couple of drivers that became synergistic. There are those that sell such news and those that “sell in May and come back after Labor Day” and adding to the selling in a big way was BMO Capital’s downgrade of HL from Outperform to Market Perform over concerns about Hecla’s Keno Hill (formerly an Alexco project) and Casa Berardi (formerly Aurizon’s flagship project).
I bought more on Friday when it was down 16% and will buy more if it goes lower and I suspect it probably will. If the “sell in May” phenomenon is in effect this year then HL could go much lower.
I’m betting on Hecla’s expertise over BMO’s analysts.
Btw, BMO’s new price target for HL is $5.50. It was $7.50 before the downgrade.
Hecla had a Q1 net loss of almost $6 million in 2024 but a net income of almost $29 million for Q1 this year.
Santacruz (SCZ) will be posting their 1st quarter 2025 results shortly, I wonder if it will be another event like Hecla, after all this is Sell in May and go Away! I have been lucky lately by selling, maybe it would pay to sit it out, and buy back in. However, I just noticed Santacruz is on a management cease trade order for late filing, (as of this past Friday after the market close) I will just have to wait and see what happens. DT
See what happens with CDE later this week. Maybe people realise that silver and miners are going nowhere but down for some time.
Hi Ex, just curious what are your top three holdings you mentioned Cerrado as #4, that is interesting, but now that Calibre has rolled over into Equinox they are out of the picture, so I’m curious as to the other three is Santacruz one of them. Maybe you could expand that into your top 5, now that we are getting closer to the Gold derby. By the way chesterfield is the number 1 pick for Churchill Downs. GIDDY-UP!!! DT
Hi DT. Cerrado is not my #4 position, but I am encouraged by their growth profile the next couple years.
My Top 5 positions are:
Santacruz Silver
Avino Silver and Gold
Calibre Mining
Energy Fuels
Coeur Mining
I will say Discovery Silver, Integra Resources, and Sandstorm Gold are all vying for 5th place, with weightings right under Coeur Mining (in 6th, 7th, and 8th place)
Mako Mining, Americas Gold & Silver, Silvercorp, Endeavour Silver, and AbraSilver all come in very closely weighted right after that…
Hi Ex thanks for sharing, it is always interesting! DT
Hecla released their first quarter results and drops 20%
The results don’t look that bad?
The Sweet Sorrow Of Warren Buffett’s Parting
Coincidental timing, or statement about what America has become?
Quoth the Raven – Substack – May 03, 2025
“It’s poetic that Warren Buffett is now stepping down at Berkshire Hathaway after one of the most extraordinary investing careers in modern history.”
“I’ll save you the adulation for his investing acumen and commitment to high-quality American companies, as the financial news will be replete with these testimonials for the foreseeable future.”
“I’ve occasionally tried to shine a slightly different light on Buffett because, in addition to being a savvy investor, he was also a tremendous beneficiary of monetary policy that simply kept markets moving higher over time. But don’t get me wrong: Buffett’s knack for outperforming the overall market undoubtedly solidifies him as legend.”
“He’s also far more of a shark than most people believe him to be. Some of the stories that get passed around in the financial underworld paint a very different picture of Warren Buffett than the jolly old man happy to sit and laugh with Becky Quick. His patience was unmatched, and his ability to leverage his brand into extraordinarily favorable transactions with companies who desperately needed capital became the best self-fulfilling prophecy investment tool there ever was.”
“Because Buffett had all the capital and all the brand equity in the world—and because his cheery demeanor belied his ruthless style—companies sought him out not only when they needed capital, but also a vote of confidence.”
“As I reflect on it now, Buffett was the perfect balance of cutthroat investor and public relations polish. And whether his ‘never bet against America’ shtick was honestly how he felt or not, it was instrumental in driving decades of goodwill toward the American financial system. He was the cornerstone of the list of reasons people globally wanted to invest in American exceptionalism…”
https://quoththeraven.substack.com/p/the-sweet-sorrow-of-warren-buffetts
The Quick, and the Dead……….. humm
“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of light, it was the season of darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair.”
― Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities
My favorite Dickens character is Ebenezer Scrooge. I have no doubt that Buffet had some if not a lot of Ebenezer’s personality running through his veins. The Grim Reaper has a checklist, and we are all on it. LOL! DT 🤣🤣🤣
Guys, Warren didn’t die, he just parted ways with Berkshire Hathaway and passed the baton on to the next chief.
Yes, we all have a date with the Grim Reaper at one point…
Another passage from QTR’s piece posted up above dealt with Berkshire Hathaway’s mountain of cash they built up selling into the strength last year, and when it will get deployed.
____________________________________________________
“As everybody knows, Berkshire is flush with almost $350 billion in cash. Media has harped on how large its cash position has gotten and everyone has speculated about how and when it said cash may be deployed. Ergo, one way to look at Berkshire today is that the company is waiting to pounce on the next great opportunity. But another way to look at it is that, sadly, there’s nothing worth buying. Buffett’s legacy will not be a couple of major parting investments in America, or in up-and-coming U.S. companies as he has preached, but rather a declaration that there simply isn’t anything out there that deserves his capital right now.”
Buffet’s cash is waiting for the crash, then it will be deployed. Buffet started getting out several years ago, remember he has patience and his successor will too. DT
I should have added…….
The Quick… was Buffy moving to cash before the crash…
The Dead…. is the market going forward….
🙂
Berkshire is not long for this world…. without Charlie and Buffy….. POOF….
See ya in a couple of years… for the prediction … come true or not… 🙂
Buffy….sounded very sick in his voice…
What does it say about the USD when Buffet is willing to let 350B of them sit around for any length of time?
‘What does it say about the USD when Buffett is willing to let 350B of them sit around…?’
It says he’s considered the alternatives. He has said many times that gold is just a rock. See any advocacy by Buffet for BRICS…for anything other than American corporations with pristine balance sheets, moats et al?
Buffet has said that a blanket purchase of the SP 500 would be his choice when pressed hypothetically how best to preserve his fortune after he’s gone.
He has also said that now and then the market decides to throw a huge bargain sale. In the near future I expect Berkshire will pick up quite a few of them.
Buffet’s $350 billion is nothing these days it will only buy him I/8 of Nvidia’s stock at today’s prices and if they hold on to it much longer with inflation it will soon buy 1/16, 1/32, 1/64. He should have bought physical gold he would have been much richer. Sorry, I didn’t mean to point out the obvious, America is swooshing down the drain and gold is signaling that Warren is no longer on top. Buy and Hold, only works for those who own physical gold, and maybe silver but the jury is still out on that one because silver (industrial metal) doesn’t do as well in an economic downturn. DT
America is not ‘swooshing down the drain’. Its just completing the transformation to an oligarchy of the wealthy begun in modern times by Reagan.
Trumpism is just icing on the cake. American style capitalism–often described accurately as socialism for the rich and dog eat dog for the poor–will thrive as never before.
Minimum wage Mcjobs for all. The middle class, already a pitiful remnant of its former self will dwindle to nothing. The resentment of working people feeling ‘lower classed’ will be channeled as by Trump against wet backs, immigrants and pointy headed liberals.
None of this is new. It’s been going on for along time. In historical terms the New Deal response to the Great Depression required a long time for the right to dismantle. Mission accomplished.
And no Berkshire would not be better off in gold than cash. When the market does crash the bargains Berkshire picks up will one day be worth more than all the gold in the world.
Blazesb, the middle class is what made America great, hint it’s gone. If you can’t hear the giant sucking sound maybe you should go to hearing life. The debt will never be paid.
America will come back but not for a long time, it will take decades to rebuild their industry like it took 60 years from the 1960’s to give it away. The EPA has destroyed their mining industry Trump is trying to kickstart that as well, but it too won’t come back for a long time and China has stopped sending The US vital critical minerals that you need to build and maintain a modern economy. China has also threatened sanctions on other friendly countries if they try resupplying the US.
America’s agricultural industry is starting to feel pain as The Chinese are now buying foodstuffs like soybeans from Brazil one of The Bric nations. (as well as pork from South America bypassing the US) Soon The Bric’s will develop a currency that will bypass the US dollar for trade amongst all nations not just the ones they are aligned with which is the case now. What is Trump doing, well he has started a trade war with the rest of the World, friend and foe alike. There goes, The US economy which has little consumer industry but a lot of war plants. I could go on and on, but to hear the swoosh you would have needed to have your ear on the ground a long time ago. Printing fiat currency by the truckload with nothing to back it up to fight wars has always destroyed empires. The American Empire is no exception the rules for this have been in place long before The Roman Empire. The Chinese buy gold because they know empires self-destruct, their country has been through this many times. America must learn it is a young country, but they need to feel the pain, and they are now.
SWOOSH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! DT 🤣🤣🤣
Trump thinks he can fight a war sitting on his gold toilet talking on his smartphone.
Not gonna work.
Portfolio Company Update With A Growth-Oriented Gold Producer – Mako Mining
Excelsior Prosperity w/ Shad Marquitz (05-03-2025)
https://excelsiorprosperity.substack.com/p/portfolio-company-update-with-a-growth