Weekend Show – Featuring Jesse Felder and Axel Merk – Just How Likely Is A US Recession?
Welcome to another KE Report Weekend Show! On this Weekend’s show we are joined by Jesse Felder and Axel Merk. It was a slower week for the markets and metals and while it wasn’t our intention, we spend a lot of the show discussing the potential of a recession in the US.
We love hearing for all of you! Please keep in touch by emailing us at Fleck@kereport.com and Shad@kereport.com.
- Segment 1 and 2 -Jesse Felder, Founder of The Felder Report kicks off the show with a discussion on the potential for the recession in the US. We touch on the yield curve, interest rates, US market internals, and the end of the re-opening trade. Click here to learn more about the Felder Report.
- Segment 3 and 4 – Axel Merk, President and CIO of Merk Investments wraps up the show by recapping the Merk Research Business Cycle Chart Book. This addresses a possible recession and the key economic data Axel’s group is focused on. We also recap the Fed minutes released this week. Click here to follow Axel on Twitter.
Exclusive Company Interviews This Week
- Kodiak Copper – Drilling Updates After Just Closing an Oversubscribed C$9.6million Financing
- Volcanic Gold Mines – Exploration Update At The Holly Project In Preparation Of Maiden Resource Estimate
- Colibri Resources – Exploration Update At All 5 Company Projects In Sonora Mexico
- Big Ridge Gold – More Information On Initial Results From The Hope Brooke Gold Project in Newfoundland Yielding High Grade Gold
- Labrador Gold – Drill Results From The Kingsway Gold Project in Newfoundland Continue to Expand High Grade Gold Mineralization Plus New Targets Being Drilled
- Chris Grove – Comprehensive Review Of Rare Earth Elements Sector and Commerce Resources
I listened to the Jesse Felder interview, it seems that the market is dictating that interest rates must go higher not The Fed. With The Fed cutting back on liquidity and bond purchases, (artificial liquidity) this has caused stock prices in the conventional market to fall. When liquidity leaves the system the remaining money becomes harder to get so interest rates must rise due to less money sloshing around in the system.
If there is a dizzy drop in stock market prices over several days or two weeks the system will face a pinch in money and a sudden and alarming panic like occurred in 1929. DT
Thanks for the Show KER team!
Jesse’s comments are very noteworthy, and many others have aired the same sentiment that the die has been cast for tighter monetary policy…………………..the thing that I am watching like a hawk, is the speed of the tightening…………….if slow, markets can readjust as required…………..if fast, could lead to panicks as the data comes in……………….Pension plans will have their work cut out for them………..as fixed income will be marginally higher, with bond prices dropping, while risk assets take a drubbing………………high growth commodity stories still have a lot of merit in this environment if you can find them !
Thanks to all the KER guest contributors for another great week of daily editorials, company interviews with management, and another solid weekend show with Jesse and Axel.
Also thanks to all the listeners of the podcast and radio show, and those members of the KER crew that post and participate here on the blog, sharing insights with our community. Ever Upward!
The Fed Just Disengaged Its Volatility Suppression Machine
Jesse Felder – The Felder Report – (04/06/2022)
‘We Are All Frogs In A Steadily Heating Monetary Broth’
Jesse Felder – The Felder Report – (04/09/2022)
RIBBIT, when I looked in the mirror this morning I saw a boiled Frog, RIBBIT!
Yes Ex, we are already seeing volatility in the price of many commodities, commodity prices have been kept at artificial levels for so long that the artificially maintained prices have become the more dangerous the longer they were concealed. I think we could see prices ratchet a lot higher and then have a day of reckoning where they fall disastrously. Especially if people start losing their jobs, I guess that is why The Fed is so worried about employment. DT
That makes sense to me DT. Yes, the longer term Commodities Supercycle, kicked off in 2020, and while there will be pullbacks along the way, the prices of real “stuff” have been going up for the last 2 years for reasons far beyond just supply chain concerns or war in Ukraine. The commodities have been undervalued relative to most other asset classes for decades now, and are starting their revaluation to levels more in alignment to where equities, bonds, and real estate have run for the last 30-40 years.
Home prices are already starting to crack. Conventional markets are in a slow mo topping pattern. Everyone is waiting for the May shoe to drop to see if the FED walks their talk. Inflation has mostly been instigated due to commodity supply issues reflected in driving inflation higher which is basic demand pull inflation; of course, unrestrained money printing didn’t help matters. Also helping commodity demand pull inflation are the sanctions put on Russia. Fortunately, we haven’t seen cost push inflation secondary to unrestrained wage growth which is much more contributory to inflation then commodity inflation. With QT and increasing interest rates be prepared for the coming recession which should moderate the demand pull inflation somewhat. The markets most affected will be the housing market, stock market, and bond market. The precious metal markets like the other markets are levitating to see if the FED action in May matches their jawboning efforts. The FED this go around is going to have to prove that they are not the paper tiger they’ve been in the past—-there could be considerable pain meted out this time since their options have narrowed even further.
I tend to agree with your thoughts on the FED having no alternative but to ‘prove’ themselves. Yet it is hard for me to see the Chairman holding to his guns when things begin really biting. At some point, they won’t be able to continue with QT and rates increases. Problem is figuring out where that point is. Here are thoughts from El-Erian: https://marketsanity.com/mohamed-el-erian-the-fed-is-going-to-push-us-into-recession/
Hi: Horrible war waged —expect 5 or 6 dollar gasoline within 3 months . massive lack of replacement parts in russia and most auto and truck parts come from japan s korea and germany . Also Russia does not produce many semi conductors and will have a hard time getting them . expect Russian economy to crash in a month or 2 . D J TRUMP JOSH HAWLEY AND PUTIN ARE ALL IN THE SAME CLOWN CAR . buy copper stocks oil and gas producers vote for SANE PEOPLE NOT COO COO NUT CASES LIKE TRUMP . BEST OF HEALTH AND WEALTH TO YOU ALL R S HAMILTON
Buy copper stocks, okay. Do you have any specific names Russell, thanks.
COPPER STOCKS INCLUDE SOUTHERNCOPPER SCCO FQVLF FIRST QUANTUM AND TASEKO TGB
As part of their due diligence, Russell Hamilton, Mike and others should watch Oliver Stone’s 2016 documentary which has been banned by youtube.
When otherwise decent people find themselves in complete agreement with those who shut down free speech, we know that such people are ignorant of history and lack common sense.
Gold has resumed its move higher.
Thanks to the lack of volatility over the last month, the Bollinger bands have narrowed dramatically. It will soon revert to widening as the next move gets going.
This is the 89th week following the 2020 top which puts it in a potentially technically important Fibonacci time zone (like the lows of last March and August)…
Thanks for the charts Matthew. What does silver look like? I bought some more AXU last week as I thought it was getting a bit overdone on the downside.
Silver is still in catch-up/confirmation mode but looks good. I still think this quarter will be a big deal for silver.
20 day MA and KAMA resistance at $25:
We don’t want a weekly close below the weekly KAMA and Bollinger Bands…
The banking sector got a lot more bearish last week as gold got a lot more bullish (and that bodes very well for gold, of course)…
Thanks for those charts Matthew. Agree Silver looks close from your charts. That banking sector chart is interesting. Looks like it could form a head and shoulders pattern wish could make some sense with one more push up for gold before a more significant correction.
Looks like just another Monday coming. Criminals can’t tell the truth … ever
Might be a better Monday. Mixed bag an hour before open.
Another Monday smash.
Britain has the Backbench, DC has the Biden Bench …
GDX vs SPY looks great:
/Ng due for a top tomorrow…it should target the day ABC up at 7.211….which corresponds exactly to the weekly chart last set of swing point fib expansion 127%….glta
i will exit today due to terrible risk/reward relative to my entry …..although i must say the slow stoch is embedded over 80% w a strong macd and RSi hitting high…but rsi is seriously lagging the old high 10/21 on week and month chart…warning will rogers
Nice. Likely NatGas MaxSat(7) Tomorrow.
Price Quality: https://tinyurl.com/yc794bru
Non-linear thinking may now be best.
Non-linear thinking is always the best, even when linear thinking will do.
My stocks were locked in at open. Holding same levels…
Who has the nuts to invest in this, HND, Nat Gas Down x2 ETF…
Dollar Index : April : Topping?