Featuring Jesse Felder and Rick Bensignor – The big picture of a breakout in Commodities and yields

February 20, 2021
Full Weekend Show

On this weekend’s show I focus on the rise in commodities, continued weakness in gold, and rise in yields. There are a few related themes that are the main drivers behind these trends.

Please keep in touch by emailing me at Tell me what you would like to see us cover on the show and any questions you have for companies that I interviewed throughout the week.

  • Segment 1 and 2 – Jesse Felder kicks off the Weekend show with a discussion on the balance between interest rates vs gold vs equity markets. We focus on the differing calculations for real yields and how growth stocks are impacted.
  • Segment 3 and 4 – Rick Bensignor wraps up the Weekend Show by sharing his thoughts on a wide range of commodities that are breaking out. On the breakout side we discuss copper and oil, while on the correction side we

Exclusive Company Interviews This Week

Jesse Felder
Rick Bensignor
    Feb 20, 2021 20:00 AM

    Thanks to all the KE Report contributors to another full week of daily editorials, tons of company updates, and another solid weekend show.

    Ever Upward!

      Feb 20, 2021 20:33 AM

      “Ever upward!”

      Yes, but don’t step in the excremental growth. 🙂

      Sorry, couldn’t resist. But I think Jesse very accurately describes the growth our rulers are causing!

        Feb 20, 2021 20:34 AM

        Don’t…try to say…exponential and incremental…in the same sentence. 🙂

          Feb 20, 2021 20:38 AM

          Yes, agreed Ebolan.

          As Rodney Dangerfield used to say: “Look out for #1, and try not to step in #2.”

    Feb 20, 2021 20:53 AM

    Current Gold Price Isn’t Factoring in Significant Inflation says Fund Manager Adrian Day

    MiningStockEducation – Feb 16, 2021

      Feb 20, 2021 20:03 AM

      Despite Gold having a rough week, and closing at $1783, it was encouraging to see Silver hold up pretty well, all things considered, and closing the week at $27.37.

        Feb 20, 2021 20:17 AM

        Silver Prices May Continue Outpacing Gold Despite Rising Inflation Bets

        Feb 17, 2021 – Thomas Westwater, Analyst

        “Silver prices have continued to track alongside increasing inflation bets. One likely reason is the higher reliance on silver as an industrial metal. While gold has applications, silver is used more heavily in manufacturing and industry. Hence silver’s outperformance versus gold since November. Investors are laser-focused on the economic rebound and those assets which will benefit most from the recovery. Inflation is likely well on its way but gold isn’t listening, at least for now.”

          Feb 20, 2021 20:25 PM

          $100 Silver Price Is Coming: Why We Will See It – Michael Konnert of (VZLA) Vizsla Silver

          ILoveProsperity – Feb 20, 2021

          “Michael Konnert explains why buy silver? We discuss the Silver squeeze, $100 silver price is coming and why we will see it. He discusses the macro-economic environment and the industrial demand that can send silver to triple digits and why buy silver & mining stocks.”

      Feb 20, 2021 20:44 PM

      $DV $DOLLF Dolly Varden hits 35 Ounce Silver

      Bob Moriarty @Fingerprint42 – Feb 19, 2021

      “Commodities are due a rest as gold and silver tap around looking for a bottom. The resource shares have been correcting since August and should catch a bid soon. There are a lot of good but cheap stories around.”

      “Dolly Varden Silver (DV-V) hit $1.17 when it peaked with the rest of the junior resource market in August of last year. It’s down some 45% since and that is a perfectly normal correction. I cannot stress enough times, if you want to make money in the market all you need to do is to buy when things are cheap and sell when they are dear.”

    Feb 20, 2021 20:56 AM

    Bitcoin price is $57,188 on Saturday morning. What a monster rally, but really getting frothy…

      Feb 20, 2021 20:16 AM

      Bitcoin Tops $55K for First Time, While Gold Drops to 7.5-Month Low as Stimulus Calls Grow

      Feb 19, 2021 – Omkar Godbole

        Feb 21, 2021 21:29 AM

        Bitcoin tops $50,000 as it wins more mainstream acceptance

        By Thyagaraju Adinarayan, Tom Wilson – Reuters

        “The move by Tesla, which also said it would accept bitcoin as payment, was the latest in a string of large investments that have vaulted bitcoin from the fringes of finance to company balance sheets and Wall Street, with U.S. firms and traditional money managers starting to buy the coin.”

        “The rally in bitcoin in part reflects the recent buoyancy of market confidence but also headlines suggesting an increase in corporate acceptability,” said Jane Foley, head of FX Strategy at Rabobank.

          Feb 22, 2021 22:33 AM

          Well, Bitcoin and the cryptos are down to start the week, but I was able to sell my last remaining crypto miner, (HODL) Cypherpunk Holdings for a nice gain this morning.

          At this point, I’ve pulled out of the cryptoverse for the short term, and want to see if there is a more meaningful correction from this point in the coins and related miners, before jumping back in.

    Feb 20, 2021 20:00 AM

    Dr Copper put on his dancing shoes and had quite a rally this week, closing at $4.07.

        Feb 20, 2021 20:09 AM

        Chart of (COPX)Copper Miners ETF, showing nearly a year of solid uptrend in place.

        > Got Copper stocks?

          Feb 20, 2021 20:44 AM

          Haven’t seen any comment on Copperbank CPPKF. Bought some initially after Cory’s interview over a year ago. It had some bad days but I averaged down much later and have a 125% gain at Friday’s close. Pays to listen to Cory!

            Feb 20, 2021 20:04 PM

            SD: CPPKF is tomorrow’s featured stock (see below).

          Feb 20, 2021 20:00 AM

          For a big copper bull I’ve certainly dropped the ball as far as making big money goes. I thought the timeframe was a year out still so I was playing exploration plays more. I saw you got into Excelsior Ex.

            Feb 20, 2021 20:38 AM

            Over the last year I’ve been steadily building up my Copper mining exposure , with (SMTS) Sierra Metals, (WRN) Wester Copper & Gold, (FILO Filo Mining, (TIG) Triumph Gold, (KDK) Kodiak Copper, (GCX) Granite Creek Copper, (ATY) Atico Mining, and on Friday I added starter positions in (MIN) Excelsior and (DCMC) Dore Copper. I realize that Copper and the Copper stocks are getting more extended at these higher levels, but Excelsior Mining had a reasonable sized pullback lately on the financing and Dore Copper hadn’t moved as much higher as other stocks yet, so they likely had less downside here than some of the other high flyers. Regardless, Copper still has years of good supply/demand fundamentals in front of it, and some of these stocks still have much further to climb.

            Feb 20, 2021 20:10 PM

            Good entry point to Excelsior Mining – I was quite unhappy with the financing. 15% below the price they had before and with a full warrant. 66 million new shares for a company that had a good cash position 12 months ago is not a good management performance.

            Feb 20, 2021 20:35 PM

            Thanks Thomas. Yes, this does appear to be a good price and time to get positioned in Excelsior Mining, now that the financing news has been digested and the reaction down has played out.

            Feb 21, 2021 21:54 AM

            I found it difficult to find a copper play with top management like at Aris Gold or WPM
            Ex, have you any copper play where you would say management is top?

            Feb 21, 2021 21:52 AM

            Hi Thomas. Well, who is “good management” is subjective as well as qualitative, as there are many CEOs that are loved and despised simultaneously by different pockets of their onw shareholders, or some really well run companies, that have management teams that are not popular celebrities at conferences or well known.

            In general, the Gold sector pulls in most of the most vocal or well followed Ceos, but I’d submit that most of larger and mid tier producers, and some of the largest development-stage companies have solid management teams, boards of directors, and experienced mid-level management teams executing on mining, processing/milling, exploration, etc…

            For Copper, I mentioned above the 9 companies I hold and personally wouldn’t own them if there was confidence in their teams pushing their projects forward or hitting their future milestones.

            Of the ones I mentioned, I feel very comfortable with the Metallic Group of Companies [Greg Johnson, Tim Johnson, Michael Rowley] being behind (GCX) Granite Creek Copper, and that the Discovery Group is backing (KDK) Kodiak Copper and that Chris Taylor (CEO/President of Great Bear) is at the helm. I guess, I own a 10th Copper company with Sombrero Resources, spun out of Auryn Resources, that has Ivan Bebek at the helm, but it just hasn’t officially listed yet.

            Quite often I back a capital structure team and will consider their menu of choices of companies, and dig a deep well with that team.

            For example, as mentioned above I like the Discovery Group (Great Bear, Kodiak Copper, Elemental Royalties, Fireweed Zinc, Bluestone Resources)

            Another is Inventa Capital with Craig Perry and Michael Konnert and their group of companies (Vizsla Silver, Tarachi Gold, Gold Bull, Surge Copper, IsoEnergy, Outbacks)

            Another is Oxygen Capital Corp with Mark O’Dea (previously had success with True Gold, Frontier Gold, and he was on board of NexGen), but have the current lineup of companies (Pure Gold, Liberty Gold, Discovery Metals, Sun Metals).

            Another I mentioned above is Greg Johnson’s Metallic Group of Companies (Metallic Minerals, Granite Creek Copper, Group Ten Metals), with a Silver, Copper, and PGM/Nickel company respectively.

            I’m very constructive on what Ivan Bebek has done recently with creating 3 companies (Fury Gold, Tier One Metal, Sombrero Resources), with a Gold, Silver, and Copper company.

            Another collection is Doug Forester & Blayne Johnson on their projects (Newmarket Gold – merged with Kirkland Lake, Calibre Mining, NewCoreGold)

            Another is the Crescat Capital & Quinton Hennigh companies (Novo Resources, Lion One, Irving, Eloro, Eskay Mining, Precipitate Gold, Nulegacy, Defiance Silver, Goliath Resources, etc….)

            Obviously there are industry icons and celebrity CEOs like Rick Rules “7 footers” such as Ross Beaty, Robert Friedland, Bob Quartermain, Amir Adnani, Frank Giustra, etc… that some love, or some love to hate, but they get a lot of market attention and are usually well funded and well marketed.

            So, while I’m fine investing with one-hit wonders that just run one company very well, as another strategy, I often follow the capital groups to see which companies are being launched, because those teams can share resources and human talent, get better deals on marketing their companies, and sometimes better deals from capital markets from their collective brand of companies.

            Feb 21, 2021 21:55 AM

            I like how Ross is backing Equinox

            Aris Gold with Neil Woodyer who put $15 million of its own money in the company is another good example

            Didn‘t found anything similar in the copper space yet

            Feb 21, 2021 21:35 PM

            Ross & Neil and multi-millionaires and can afford to backstop companies with such massive funds, and they are part of the 7 footer’s club from Rick Rule. The thing about companies like that is they get a lot of attention, publicity, and do find solid projects, so they’ll be winners, but they are typically more fully valued due to all the analysts and eyeballs on them, providing retail investors with less of an edge for a re-rating.

            With regards to all the ideas I just shared about quality capital groups and their baskets of companies, on a percentage basis, most of the management teams I mentioned still have significant amount of their personal funds invested in the companies mentioned, and are just as dedicated, but they aren’t 7 footers yet….

            If you want another multi-millionaire backstopping his company, there is Rob McEwen not taking a salary and having about 1/4 of the shares in (MUX) McEwen Mining, and they have some Copper exposure.

    Feb 20, 2021 20:25 AM

    Gold will become the forgotten barbaric relic for quite awhile and that’s when the gold stocks should be accumulated just exemplifying once again why a lot of investors don’t miss the early boat—-there are going to be some excellent buys in the next few weeks.

      Feb 20, 2021 20:36 AM

      Creating shopping list… prepared to go bottom fishing…

        Feb 20, 2021 20:54 AM

        Every week I purchase a little more SAND—watching SSR mining get beat up—-would like to purchase around 12. GOLD (Barrick) is heading off a cliff. AUY will be a buy again in the future—-I sold it awhile ago and hope to purchase it again.

          Feb 20, 2021 20:35 AM

          Yes, I’ve been beefing up my SAND Sandstorm position as well, and it is currently my largest precious metals holding. My rationale was that it has already pulled back quite a bit, and more than most of the Royalty companies have, and thus has less of a risk of falling out of bed here, compared to other gold stocks that could plunge further. Also, Royalty companies are more diversified across hundreds of assets, than individual miners, and they get paid the cream off the top as net smelter royalties, or on their streams they can buy the metals at very low fixed costs. I liked SAND a lot before it dove from over $10 down to the low $6’s, so it seems like a great one to have accumulated down at these prices.

            Feb 20, 2021 20:56 AM

            You’re correct technically about SAND—there’s some gold stocks that are going to be absolutely “clocked over the next 3-4 weeks while SAND’s downside has only a little more. It’s at great techincal support and will slowly slide while other stocks will do a March 2020 like plunge again.

            Feb 20, 2021 20:03 AM

            Another one you’ve liked in the past is arngf which I believe takes out support beginning next week.

            Feb 20, 2021 20:27 AM

            Yes, I still have a larger-sized weighting in Argonaut, and just added a bit more on Friday. If it breaks support next week, and dives down, then I’ll look for a good place to add a bit more, as longer term their growth profile is simply stellar, with Magino in development currently, and Cerro Del Gallo moving from development to production in a couple years after that.

            Argonaut is transitioning from a higher cost 150K-200K ounce per year gold producer to a solid low cost 300K-500K ounce per year gold Mid-tier. If I can accumulate more on oversold conditions, then that is a nice gift.


          Feb 20, 2021 20:15 AM

          Doc, thanks for reminding us of stocks you are keeping your eye on.
          As Ex stated, I’m adjusting my shopping list.
          I’ve been fairly quiet on the trading of shares this past week. Will probably dip back in again mid to end of this week.
          I appreciate Ker community comments about the pending drop, but I think we’re already here. Again, if it eases down a bit more, I don’t feel we’re going to see a dramatic drop in PM co. share prices.
          Treading forward cautiously.

            Feb 20, 2021 20:37 PM

  —Can; here’s the weekly chart of SAND—-notice how pricing is slowly making its’ way down to the support of the 200 week SMA. The RSI is hugging the bottom and will most likely for 2-3 more weeks. On the MACD the 12 week SMA is starting to move laterally toward the 26 SMA and will likely continue to for about 2-3 weeks. At any time in the near future the bearish red line will curve up toward the bullish green line which will turn down signifying a move up in pricing. I love a chart like this since you can pick away at it and buy small amounts each week without expecting a sudden significant move down that puts you in a significant loss position.

            Feb 20, 2021 20:39 PM

            Can; the red and green lines I’m referring to are on the ADX strength indicator.

            Feb 20, 2021 20:57 PM

            Bingo Doc. SAND is hugging that lower BB line all the way down, and approaching the 200 week MA. I’d imagine some bigger money is waiting down at where those 2 will intersect, and I’m happy buying in front of that, just in case it doesn’t make it all the way down there, but would also be happy adding a bit more down at those levels.

            Feb 20, 2021 20:11 PM

            Thanks for your charting Doc. Much appreciated.
            My most recent purchase of SAND was just inside of the last two weeks.

          Feb 20, 2021 20:04 PM

          M M M ! DOC ! Tank’s !

            Feb 20, 2021 20:11 PM

            What’s you’r opinion on Zijin Mining 2899 HK ? A Keep & Sell & Buy ? Tank’s !

            Feb 20, 2021 20:14 PM

            Franky, I would tell you what I thought if I could pull up a technical chart on this miner.

      Feb 20, 2021 20:09 PM

      Gold Price Is Falling, Here’s Why And Where Precious Metals Are Going

      ILoveProsperity w/ Jake Ducey and guest Steve Penny (aka SilverChartist)

        Feb 21, 2021 21:11 PM

        Feb 21, 2021 ILoveProsperity – w/ Jake Ducey and guest Steve Penny (SilverChartist)

        “In this video Steve Penny breaks down what an “invisible crash” looks like. Basically, this is when governments use hyperinflation to continually raise asset prices, so that people do not notice that the currency is collapsing. This has happened throughout history, and we’re beginning to see this more often, as countries are printing their currencies into a total economic crash. Steve says that Gold & Silver prices set to explode in an environment like this, because there will be a flight to safety. The important thing to watch is the purchasing power of your currency & when people are not able to buy the normal goods and services they are used it, they will begin spending their money faster, which will only increase the chances of hyperinflation or a collapse of currency.”

      Feb 21, 2021 21:14 PM

      What Is The Next Move For Silver/Gold? Follow Treasuries And Commodities Trends To Find Out

      February 21, 2021 – The Technical Traders – Chris Vermeulen

    Feb 20, 2021 20:26 AM

    “investors miss the early boat “. ‘”

      Feb 20, 2021 20:35 AM

      Is that similar to the “slow boat to China”?

        Feb 20, 2021 20:41 AM

        Or is it more like getting onboard the S.S Minnow?

          Feb 20, 2021 20:47 AM

          I am sailing on the Pequod under Captain Quinton and searching for the great golden whale.
          Been up to Labrador, down to Brazil and then around Cape Horn to Bolivia, Peru, Alaska,BC, Japan, Fiji,and Australia. What a trip!

    Feb 20, 2021 20:44 AM

    The narrative around copper is making copper stocks really attractive. I am purchasing a basket of crappy copper stocks. It could be an epic bull run if copper surges to a 5 handle over the next year. I will hold existing gold positions and add on pullbacks eg. Ely.

    Feb 20, 2021 20:10 AM

    I don’t like throwing cold water on the the speculators/investors but there are many speculative bubbles (too many to count) out there and they just keep getting bigger and bigger. The Federal Reserve authorities are trapped in a debt bubble of their own making. Speculation is clearly absorbing more and more of the surplus funds of the country. Funds that should be going into infrastructure building, and building businesses. The inflation of credit is becoming more and more dangerous. As long as prices keep rising in the stock market speculators will keep throwing more money into it. We are now at a point where the speculative fever can’t be stopped or contained it has only become more violent. The speculative fever can’t be cured without a terrific smash. The only way to deflation, because we have lots of inflation and soon hyperinflation is through disaster. I hope you have a plan because the authorities don’t, they can’t even handle simple things like the problems people are facing now in Texas. DT

      Feb 20, 2021 20:22 AM

      Soon the biggest Bagholders won’t be the little guy who didn’t sell in time it will be the speculators/investors that are caught with a boatload of undigested securities and no buyers. I don’t believe that precious metal investors will be exempt from the next real downturn. You can tell me about Homestake Mining all you want but even for us it will be too little too late. DT

        Feb 20, 2021 20:38 AM

        The only sure thing is holding precious physical metal, like Jerry and Irish Tony. Imagine the public holding tulip bulbs in The Netherlands in the 16th century, it works until it can’t no more. People are wired for mass psychology and easily embrace such a crazy idea, without a thought to what was happening around them. DT

          Feb 20, 2021 20:05 PM

          DT – In lieu of all this retail speculative frenzy, I’m thinking about starting a company that produces Digital Tulips on the blockchain, called TulipCoin.

          They’ve already had Dogecoin (initially a joke about an altcoin for dogs), and back in 2017 we saw the insane march in value in the CryptoKitties. There are so many analogies made about the tulip bulb mania, then why not go with it and start TulipCoin?

          Do you want in as “seed” investor on the Miracle Grow network? 😉

            Feb 20, 2021 20:11 PM

            Ex, that is a pretty insipid response from someone as smart as you. DT

            Feb 20, 2021 20:14 PM

            However, I like your thoughts! LOL! DT

            Feb 20, 2021 20:03 PM

            Yes. Just having a little fun with the retail frenzy, and TulipCoin sounded funny. 🤑🤑🤑

          Feb 21, 2021 21:48 PM

          Ditto…….DT……….phyz… in the bank…. lol

      Feb 21, 2021 21:32 PM

      Agree. Notice how nearly none of the newly created USD currency went into capital investment, which is the precursor to consumption. Instead it went towards speculation and into consumption that directly benefits foreign (i.e. China) producers. As a retired bank auditor, I assure you that this massive speculation occurring while at a 0% rate on deposits is now creating a “soft run” on bank accounts. Boomers are moving funds from bank savings and bank IRAs to brokerage accounts to feed the speculation.

    Feb 20, 2021 20:10 AM

    Enjoyed Jesse as always Cory, Thanks. Liked the comments on growth stocks. Another analyst who is watching three particular stocks (AMZN, APPL and MSFT) is Michael Oliver. I’ve been watching the same three for a sign and yesterday, the combined value dropped to to similar values of late January. MSFT looks to be forming a rounding top and it could signal something significant if it continues down due to these interest rate increases. JMO

      Feb 20, 2021 20:00 AM

      Matthew, what does the chart tell you about RDS.B? Thanks.

        Feb 20, 2021 20:24 AM

        Very positive action, Bonzo. My only concern is that oil is overbought and may pull back soon and drift mostly sideways for awhile. That’s a couple weeks to possibly a couple months. After that, Oil and RDS.B will continue higher (my opinion and I do not own it).

        Beware the lost deflationists who can’t fathom higher oil or high price inflation in the face of economic trouble.

          Feb 20, 2021 20:15 PM

          Thanks, Matthew, but I was hoping you’d say “SELL RDS!” When I look at that chart you posted I see a head and shoulders top forming. IN late Oct. RDS.B was 21. Then it went up to 37,down to 33, up to 40, down to 33, and now back up to 38. I agree with you that oil is good long term I’d rather own oil companies that like oil, like CVX, COP, or XOM, and not companies that want to be green companies, like BP and RDS. Last April I sold half of my RDS at 38 and put that money into PSLV@5.60. Eric Sprott just bought 3 million shares of PSLV for 38 million Canadian. I’m thinking about selling more RDS and buying more gold and silver miners while they are down. I have owned RDS since 1979 when I bought it at $4 when it had a PE of 4 and a yield of 8%.

            Feb 20, 2021 20:39 PM

            Ok, Bonzo, SELL RDS! Seriously, I think it’s a great idea to sell it and buy the gold/silver miners. The risk-reward of doing so is excellent even if RDS does not fall.
            It would be nice if the whole oil sector would fill those November huge gaps someday but it seems unlikely at the moment even though a healthy correction is sure to come to all these hockey stick (parabolic) sectors.

          Feb 20, 2021 20:18 PM

          Thanks, Matthew. I will sell another chunk of RDS soon to raise some cash and be ready to pounce.

      Feb 20, 2021 20:11 AM

      pdac march 8-11

      Isnt that “curse” time?

      We get a slow move down, then the curse, then the doldrums, looks to be an exciting year 😉

      Geez, if bitcoin keeps rising we could end up with a real “barberous relic” attitude.

        Feb 20, 2021 20:27 AM

        b, When Bitcoin fails the next big investment craze will be rain caps, at least they will be more practical than beanie babies! LOL! DT

          Feb 20, 2021 20:06 AM

          The thing is DT, there is no gaurantee bitcoin will fail

          Banks credit cards have begun to accept it.

          The american sanctions have drivin nations to using it.

          Im not saying bitcoin doesnt evaporate, all Im thinking is we have no evidence to believe it will.

          Tulips were not on the internet.

          Today, more people understand the criminality of our governments and banks.
          More people are catching on to the printing destroying the value of fiat.

          I just dont see a reason bitcoin should fall apart, at least not until the central banks introduce their own crypto.

            Feb 20, 2021 20:30 AM

            b, what backs Bitcoin, we all know what is holding up fiat currencies it’s called hot air, how is Bitcoin any different, banks and credit cards back the dollar? As far as the internet goes it has a host of problems that Tulip bulbs didn’t. Hackers, solar flares, nuclear war, space war, electromagnetic pulse bombs, and if it goes down it’s bye, bye, bye, for banking, for food, for water, for fuel, for security, for transportation, for Bitcoin, for survival, etc, etc, etc. ! LOL! DT

            Feb 20, 2021 20:56 AM

            All true dt.

            Feb 20, 2021 20:50 PM

            You may enjoy this video on Max and Dan Collins. I found it revealing…..

            Feb 20, 2021 20:17 PM

            Thx SD

            Ive been following this for some time now and its why I’m thinking bitcoin is not a passing phase, at least until the digital currencies come out.

            The world wants out of dollars.

      Feb 21, 2021 21:39 AM

      David H. Smith: The Financial System Starting to Crack

      Palisades Gold Radio – Feb 19, 2021

      “Tom welcomes David H. Smith, Senior Analyst for The Morgan Report, back to the show.”

      Time Stamp References:
      0:00​ – Intro
      0:36​ – Silver & Palladium
      7:40​ – Will Silver Break Gold Out
      12:45​ – Stages to silver’s rise
      15:40​ – Davos Meeting Basel III
      17:40​ – Digital Silver
      18:45​ – Physical Bullion & Premiums
      20:07​ – Blackrock & Big Money
      21:57​ – Miners & Leverage
      28:12​ – Bob Moriarty
      32:50​ – Australian Discoveries
      36:52​ – The Pareto Principle
      40:43​ – LODE Crypto Project
      46:33​ – 2020 Crisis & Gov’t
      48:40​ – Wrap Up

    Feb 20, 2021 20:57 AM

    (Replaced ESKYF with EQXWF.)
    Global Battery Metals Ltd REZZF:

      Feb 20, 2021 20:59 AM
      26 Jan ATHBO: 0.1634
      29 Jan Test(A): 0.1600
      ABCD(1:1): 1.4825
      8 Feb TOP: 1.5100
      Pull Back CW(D): 0.7500
      Possible Buy Zone.

        Feb 20, 2021 20:00 PM

        Each issue will feature one random stock.
        Today’s was REZZF. Tomorrow’s is CPPKF.
        Suggestions will be seriously considered.

          Feb 20, 2021 20:15 PM

          Thx BDC, REZZF…believe

            Feb 20, 2021 20:17 PM

            May take awhile but good looking chart,
            and consolidating in a favored industry.

    Feb 20, 2021 20:11 AM

    GDX violated the important weekly “P” Pivot by one penny before reversing to finish the week 19 cents above it. Just below P, there’s 89 week MA/EMA support…

      Feb 21, 2021 21:06 PM

      Hi Matt & EX & GLEN & DOC,
      Read this guys take….listening to Felix Zubof…gold is going down for now.

    Feb 20, 2021 20:16 PM

    This is the most important correction for gold and the gold stocks since they bottomed versus the stock market 2.5 years ago.
    The following chart is HUI priced in Dow. Despite pulling back 40% versus stocks since July, the gold miners are still up 67% versus stocks since the uptrend began. That uptrend is intact and the ratio has returned to its pre-covid price support. This action clears the slate of dumb money as it exits due to the false perception that covid had/has anything to do with the fundamentals driving gold. This is a fantastic time to sell the stock market and buy the gold/silver miners and big money is going to do just that.

      Feb 20, 2021 20:13 PM

      Another interesting chart Matthew. Thanks!

    Feb 20, 2021 20:43 PM

    The dollar’s wimpy countertrend bounce just might be over:

    Feb 20, 2021 20:38 PM

    What Inflation Debates Miss: Inflation

    Focusing on consumer prices allows economists to miss all the other social danger signs of bad prices.

    WallStreetJournal – By Joseph C. Sternberg – Feb. 11, 2021

    “There is a chance that macroeconomic stimulus on a scale closer to World War II levels than normal recession levels will set off inflationary pressures of a kind we have not seen in a generation,” Larry Summers warned last week.

    Never fear. “I can tell you we have the tools to deal with that risk if it materializes,” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen reassured the world Sunday. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell presumably agrees. He has lobbied for months for a fiscal blowout at the same time the Fed expects the risks to financial stability—a pillar of Mr. Summers’s worry about inflation—to be only “moderate.”

    “Don’t underestimate how silly this debate is. Even Mr. Summers’s attenuated warning about inflation is based on his precise calculations of things that are unknowable.”

      Feb 20, 2021 20:26 PM

      You can’t compare what happened after The Second World War with The US today. Europe was destroyed their industry was bombed into submission. America stood alone it’s industry was intact and only had to retool for peace time. China wasn’t even on the radar. America was a creditor nation with a currency backed by gold. America doesn’t realize they are the suckers in the room. Fast forward to now, this commodity boom and the one before was driven by China. America gave away it’s industry but they never gave away their ego. DT

        Feb 20, 2021 20:30 PM

        The only thing that Dr. Copper is saying is China is calling the shots now they are in charge. DT

          Feb 21, 2021 21:00 AM

          Summers is a four letter word…

        Feb 20, 2021 20:15 PM

        Yeah, Larry Summers isn’t the sharpest tool in the shed.

          Feb 20, 2021 20:24 PM

          Neither is Janet Yellen.

            Feb 20, 2021 20:30 PM

            Grant Williams – The Sovereign Debt Crisis Will Be A Central Bank Confidence Crisis

            Cambridge House International – part of the ‘End Game’ event on February 7th

            0:00​ Intro
            0:55​ Reddit vs Short Sellers
            8:06​ Naked Short Selling
            9:40​ Robinhood Response
            12:38​ Market Corruption in 2021
            16:43​ Redistribution of Wealth
            17:54​ 2021 Crisis & Social Media
            20:39​ Sovereign Debt Crisis & The Endgame
            22:42​ Signals of a Market Crash To Watch
            24:17​ Inflation is the Key
            27:36​ Safeguarding your Portfolio in 2021
            33:10​ Trends in Commodities Investing
            35:48​ Book Recommendation


            Feb 21, 2021 21:43 AM

            Grant Williams gives outstanding comments about where we are…One of the people I would like to have lunch with and just listen..

            Feb 21, 2021 21:01 AM

            Agreed David. I always enjoy getting Grant’s macro perspectives.

        Feb 20, 2021 20:21 PM

        The Next Commodity Supercycle

        Variant Perception – Feb 17, 2021

        > “There are three big drivers of the commodity supercycle:”

        “The long era of monetary-policy dominance is over, leading to a heightening of inflation risks not seen since the 1960s”

        “Investors are deeply underweight and will need real assets such as commodities as a hedge against inflation”

        “Commodities are generationally cheap, both compared to themselves and to other assets”

        “It is rare in macro-forecasting when the stars align so perfectly. The combination of substantially different inflation risks, capital scarcity across several commodity sectors, and 50 years’ of underperformance compared to financial assets make commodities one of the most compelling long-term investment opportunities at the moment.”

        “The convergence of fiscal and monetary policy represents a profound change to the investment landscape. Monetary policy, hitting up against zero rates and with central banks’ balance sheets already bloated, it is becoming ever more incumbent on more fiscal policy to boost economies and inflation.”

        “But policymakers should be careful what they wish for. Large government deficits financed by pliant central banks have preceded every high and hyper-inflationary episode of the 20th century…”

    Feb 20, 2021 20:28 PM

    “20% of Large Companies are Zombies” – Danielle DiMartino Booth Sold Her Stocks

    Cambridge House International – Feb 18, 2021

    Danielle DiMartino Booth | CEO & Chief Strategist, Quill Intelligence LLC

    1:10​ Navigating Market Chaos
    5:08​ Investing in 2021
    7:00​ Silver & Inflation Scare
    16:55​ FED Created Zombie Companies
    21:58​ USD & Currencies

      Feb 21, 2021 21:27 PM

      Howard Marks & Joel Greenblatt: Is It Different This Time?

      #RealVisionFinance – Feb 14, 2021

      “Howard Marks, co-founder and co-chairman of Oaktree Capital Management, welcomes Joel Greenblatt, founder and co-CIO of Gotham Asset Management, for an exploration on whether market exuberance is rational or irrational. Marks contends that the current investor optimism is largely a man-made artifact of monetary policy in order to stave off an economic recession. Marks and Greenblatt agree that the Fed’s promise to keep rates low for many years is a true gamechanger in the valuation of assets, and they discuss whether high inflation could change this.”

      “Marks and Greenblatt contend that the prospect of sustained low-interest rates may indeed mean that “this time is different,” and that optimistic valuations may be justified by the lowering of the “discount rate” by which future cash flows are priced in the market. Nevertheless, market optimism is very high, so having a sufficient margin of safety when allocating capital is absolutely necessary.”

    Feb 21, 2021 21:34 AM

    Gold Goes From a Star Commodity to Laggard in Shocking Reversal

    Yvonne Yue Li, Joe Richter and Eddie Spence (02/20/2021) Bloomberg

    “Gold began the year with lofty expectations on the back of a record high and its biggest annual gain in a decade. Instead, the precious metal is off to its worst start in 30 years.”

    With “rates going higher and inflation expectations peaking out, we’re seeing a lot of profit-taking in gold and people are going from gold into industrial metals such as copper,” said Peter Thomas, senior vice president at Zaner Group in Chicago. “It’s a perfect storm.”

      Feb 21, 2021 21:58 AM

      Gold makes financial criminals look bad. Makes them look like…Criminals. Studies show that Criminals receive smaller bonuses after conviction than criminals that are not prosecuted.

        Feb 21, 2021 21:28 PM

        Yes, Gold being “honest money” isn’t well-loved by the financial criminals. Fiat is their game.

    Feb 21, 2021 21:42 AM

    Gold is currently out of favor in the investment community for the time being. Commodities are beginning a long awaited new cycle upward. Treasury rates are moving up and will continue to for the near term putting more pressure on the gold price. Who cares about the dollar which has been minimally influenced by the move in treasury rates? The dollar may move higher yet with rates but won’t be that impressive in that move. Inflation is starting to stir a tad but is not that gold influential. Don’t expect any major rallies in gold in the near and medium terms. You may have some minimal rallies but nothing to write home about. There will still be downward pressure on PM equities throughout the spring with plenty of opportunities to take new positions and add to old positions. There is no hurry to catch “falling knives”. Gold may be forgotten but it will hibernate for awhile waiting to for deep spring to awaken from its’ slumber. This period of time reminds me of gold’s reaction in the years 2008-2009 in that particular gold bull run. Remember however that gold bull moves do not repeat but they do rhyme. In 2008-2009, gold moved all the way down to its’ 50 month SMA and EMA lines before starting its’ ascent again. There’s a strong possibility based on today’s overall equity moves that that senario could play out again. In fact gold is starting its’ move down this time from a higher MACD position then it did in 2008-2009 and for it to move up again in a sustained move we need it to move farther down to establish a base to make that move from. That’s why I mention over and over again that the first half of this year should not be friendly to gold and why I’m in no hurry taking massive new positions. We should see gold negativity for some time. I include the monthly chart that you can peruse.

      Feb 21, 2021 21:08 AM

      “ Inflation is starting to stir a tad”???? I don’t know about anyone else but for me inflation has hit my wallet big time. Food prices are way up. Household(heating water and electricity ) are up. Cable and cell phone have gone up a few dollars. Even filling up the tank has gone up considerably from the lows of last spring. The necessities of the average person are all more expensive at a time wages haven’t gone up and have gone down for many. They have altered the inflation calculation to give the impression there is none. The average Joe knows better based on his monthly budget

        Feb 21, 2021 21:49 AM

        Yep, I am seeing lots of inflation in Canada and have been for several years. I felt inflation was serious in 2019, it is far more serious in 2021. DT

        Feb 21, 2021 21:58 AM

        Agreed Wolfster.

      Feb 21, 2021 21:24 AM

      Thanks Doc for your thoughts.

      Feb 21, 2021 21:59 AM

      Doc – thanks for sharing a bit more details on your outlook for the PMs. Much appreciated.

      Feb 21, 2021 21:07 PM

      Hi Matt & EX & GLEN & DOC,
      Read this guys take….listening to Felix Zubof…gold is going down for now.

        Feb 21, 2021 21:15 PM


        Over a decade ago I use to check and compare charts and price action with rambus chartogy.. He has been wrong many times including myself. There is no perfect recipe. However Jerry is my witness and few have called price of gold like I have like it or not! I’m fact I think there are pundits out there listening and changing tune after they listen.

        I’m confident in my own model and I’m hitting it out of the park lately. I called for a break of November low long before many it is what it is.

        Thanks for sharing as rabbis reminds me of the earlier days when I figured the only person to trust was my own charts and learn from the best! Matt is one of those..

        Matt called that 2015 low and ex was also in there.. today glen is telling you we are close!


          Feb 21, 2021 21:22 PM

          It’s true that if you recognize your wrong it’s never to Kate to change paths! 100% 2015 imo was the most difficult bottom to call because I believe it was unchartered territory.. a long bear within a bull.. I took off for sometime to gather myself and compose and reflect. I had damage done to my portfolio something I shared with Matt personally. I think it was the best thing I ever did to walk away and learn. What I learned most was not to follow the million chartist but to bemieve on myself and that I did only trusting in the top three chartist I had ever seen. Today I’m a morphed by product of them and myself.

          I feel I’m nailing calls and that’s a great feeling. Why do I share? Because it’s my nature maybe same way Matt does.. it’s a great feeling.


          Feb 21, 2021 21:41 PM

          GLEN………has me as a witness…….so, I will agree with him…,
          do not be Confused….Glen has been spot on since the cup got filled… 🙂

            Feb 21, 2021 21:59 PM


            Thank you buddy! I remember the nice chat we had when you called almostblrecisely to the tea the top in gold! I give you credit.. I remember saying to you merry this handle is going to go very low.. do you remember? My reasons at that time was my original pattern however I believe I said something between $1550-$1680.. it was really hard to predict but my just was that we hit a long term massive resistance area the all time high.. If anyone in this world thought we were going to just pierce through it without pain, they were kidding themselves hence why I said this is a major correction.

            Fast forward here we are.. 6 months and counting downtrend which is justified yet the bulls don’t get it.. I do.. I’m realist when it comes to approach and I value each of you and respect your calls because I know gold is going so much higher but there will be pain along the way. This normal yet people write things to discourage me or mock me or discredit me because they hate in right. And fact is I don’t know how much more of this I can take at the ker. Pundints post to others with narrative clearly speaking of me and taking shots to boost there own ego instead of embracing my calls and acknowledging it and saying wow it’s great to have this type of “ team “ work no they are threatened by the realization that I’m making very valid and accurate calls.

            I’ve learned in my life to share and to grasp and retain the best from the best. This ker seems to be all about me and me and hearing there own voice and when wrong, try to make a narrative that works for them in making excuses as to why things go down instead of learning.

            I know Jerry tu get it and I also know how smart you are! Gold will go to much higher prices but I don’t want investors getting hurt without knowing the truth.


            Feb 21, 2021 21:04 PM

            Hey Glen……..some sound advice in that post.
            I do recall you mentioning the handle, and I will be upfront,…I did not expect , it to go this low, or long….So, Bravo…you were spot on.
            I would not be to concerned , on the others, wanting to be right all the time,
            You are a great asset to the KER.,..and with ME……

        Feb 21, 2021 21:02 PM

        Thanks Confused for that link and yes I’m familiar with Rambus. He is a good technician, but like Clive Maund, I find him to be 50/50 on accuracy. However, he does seem to be in agreement with Glen, Doc, Jordan, Gary Savage, and other technicans over at FX Empire that in the short to medium term, that Gold and the PM miners are likely to keep plowing lower.

        It makes me nervous when everyone lines up on one side of the boat in consensus like this, as Mr Market can be a cruel teacher and often dash the setup most expect, inflicting the most pain to both bulls and bears alike. However, it makes me more nervous to consider the potential downside we may face, as I have a very large allocation to the Gold and Silver stocks, and 2-6 more weeks of pain sound terrible.

          Feb 21, 2021 21:31 PM

          I would tend to disagree with this statement as you can go back clearly as recent as three weeks ago and everyone in here including you and Matt and many others had gold going higher with a slight bibs” possibly” going lower. The record is clear no matter how you cut the cheese I was alone for the longest time in her at the ker and the one who changed course very early with “ conviction” that gold would break November low. That to me is bullish on my call vs the the majority.. Remember early in Gary was bullish ther reversal was in he changed tunes later like rambus and many others. Glen was first to the race ask Jerry.. That is clear.

          I was not nervous one bit when everyone in here was singing higher. I think at one point the only one in here was chartser lol with me going down. Doc came on after record is clear.


            Feb 21, 2021 21:51 PM

            Glen has been on a roll so far,…so, I would not bet against his calls at this stage of the game……JMO….

            Feb 21, 2021 21:02 PM

            Thanks Jerry! Once again I can’t say more.. Is the reason why I amend you captain. The voice.. la vos!

            Feb 21, 2021 21:09 PM

            Glen, you were positive the low was in place several weeks ago. Remember that right shoulder you kept looking for?

            Feb 21, 2021 21:17 PM

            I see that you are now 100% sure that the low is not in place. Being 100% sure doesn’t mean much once you’ve been sure and wrong.
            I’ve learned not to be sure but to act appropriately as things unfold.

            The potential for a “bloodbath phase” definitely exists but the bears have been feeble so far and David was right to point out their failures and read them as bullish regardless of what happens next. This is an odds game and such failures usually are a bullish sign.

            Feb 21, 2021 21:27 PM

            Correct Matthew!

            But I changed the course as anyone should when investing and no one else did but myself in here.. I make calls cold blooded nothing in between and I win that way or I lose that way and I’m good that way. I don’t believe I’m between I just don’t.

            I made that change because the pattern I was following was not direct but prior to that I called an important too before hand and I made the change at the perfect time and shared it with all yet it’s not good enough lol..


            Feb 21, 2021 21:56 PM

            I see. When you change your call it’s different than when I do.

            Feb 21, 2021 21:13 PM


            I never implied that. I have nothing bad to say about you ever! Let’s make that clear
            Your the one who taught me to think outside the hat. I’m sorry if I come across wrong amigo..

            Feb 21, 2021 21:17 PM

            Glen, 3-4 weeks ago, you were still expecting your H&S pattern to hold, and had mentioned anyone warning of the November lows was just scaring people and BS.
            If you recall, for most of January you repeatedly felt we were near a bottom and would be beheading up soon. You felt different levels would hold and then bounce (1880-1890), then (1850-1880), then (1817-1827) and gold would move higher to break out from the right shoulder.

            Clearly that didn’t happen and the H&S pattern was a failed pattern, as I pointed out the first time Gold dropped to $1810, and then it removed all doubt of the pattern failing when Gold went down and closed at $1784. You have since changed your views, and have become vocal that breaking the November low is a foregone conclusion and the Gold is heading down into the $1671-$1685 level.

            For the last few weeks I had mentioned the range between the 55 day EMA and 233 Day EMA that gold was channeling sideways to down in that I’d like to see the that 233 day EMA hold or at least the higher low of $1784 hold. I was not saying gold was going higher in any of that. What I did say, was that Gold was building up energy for a big move one way or the other, and I had invested for the bullish case, and that eventually Gold would bounce as the correction had been going on since last August. As we now know, gold broke down to test the November lows this last week, and closed just a little over a dollar above that level.

            What remains to be seen in the next week or two is if that level will hold, making it a Double-Bottom, or if this level will fall and if Gold will plumb new lows.

            Doc has been saying since the end of last year that he expected there to be further weakness in the first quarter of this year, and there have been others like the guys over at FX empire, and more recently Jordan Roy-Byrne, Gary Savage, and Rambus that also expected gold to pull back lower for longer. It seems like that is the consensus at this point, and they came to that conclusion on their own, so with this many technicians all on the same side of the boat expecting lower lows in the PMs, my question was simply, if everyone is so convinced, then why don’t they go long the inverse ETFs JDST and DUST, and put their money where their mouths are?

      Feb 21, 2021 21:00 PM

      The August high for gold looks very similar to the high of February, 2003. Aside from similar appearances, both happened about one year after gold’s first monthly close above its monthly Bollinger bands. In 2003, the pullback ended near (but not at) the 20 month MA. That MA today is about 1700 and rising about $20 per month. So it should be about 1720 one week from tomorrow and if gold hits 1737 in March, the “382” retracement of the move that began in 2018, it would be within about 1 percent of the 20 months MA.

      However, I think it’s a mistake to focus too heavily on the monthly chart when the quarterly one has clearly been the dominant one. We just saw gold complete 6 closes in a row above the quarterly Bollinger bands for the first time in over four decades. 3 such closes was the best run of the 2001-2011 move and it’s probably no coincidence that the highest quarterly close of that move (1774.50) has been acting as support lately.

        Feb 21, 2021 21:08 PM

        Thanks Matthew. That is an encouraging thought on the strength of the quarterly closes above the B.B. on a historic basis. One would think that confirms the larger bull trend is still very much intact, and if Gold only dips down to $1720 or $1737, then that is not much further down, and would be much better than a move down into the mid $1600s that some are expecting.

        It will be a good time to capitalize on any weakness regardless, as longer term, we’ll look back on this weakness as a great time to have added to positions.

          Feb 21, 2021 21:51 PM

          Whatever gold does, the miners are gearing up for a massive move against it. This is simply NOT a bearish consolidation:

          Feb 21, 2021 21:20 PM

          Ex…….be quite……on that $1600 …might spook some people…. 🙂

            Feb 21, 2021 21:02 PM

            Haha! To be clear, I’ve not been calling for $1600 Gold, but some have mentioned it as a possibility. My point above was that if the quarterly closes have been so strong, it indicates that the longer term bull market is still well in place. Matthew had mentioned the potential of $1720 or $1737 as good areas of support, and so if gold does pull down to those levels, that that isn’t too bad or much more downside.

            Feb 21, 2021 21:20 PM

            Ex……I would agree with your statement……of “.if gold does pull down to those levels, that that isn’t too bad or much more downside.”

            Feb 21, 2021 21:25 PM

            Agreed OOTB. If Gold only fell another $50-$60 and then held and started the journey back up, then that wouldn’t be the end of the world, and at this point most of the correcting since last August is in the rear-view mirror. Until then…. we’ll take each day as they come.

            Feb 21, 2021 21:08 PM

            Ditto…….on each day……

        Feb 21, 2021 21:06 PM

        Hi MATT/EX/DOC/GLEN,

        thanks for the feedback….these are very tricky bets…certainly, not for the feint of heart!

          Feb 21, 2021 21:23 PM

          Agreed Confused. Gold is at a make it or break it moment in pricing, and it will be interesting to see if holds support near current levels and bounces off these price points, level with the November low, for a W-shaped double bottom, or if the yellow metal is going to hit the bloodbath phase for a few more weeks and fall into the high $1600s as some are expecting.

          No, all this volatility in so many sectors is definitely not for the faint of heart.

    Feb 21, 2021 21:52 AM

    Copperbank Resources Corp CPPKF:

      Feb 21, 2021 21:53 AM
      ATL: Mar 2020 .0742
      ATH: Jun 2017 .5540
      (19 Feb Top: -.0044)
      ABCD(A): 1 Feb .2500
      1:1 Extension: .5595
      (19 Feb Top: -.0099)
      CW(A): 28 Dec .1500
      CW(E): 19 Feb .5496
      MaxSat(7) if CW(F) ?

      Feb 21, 2021 21:02 AM

      Erratum: CPPKF Next HIGH?: Mon 2/22

    Feb 21, 2021 21:31 AM

    Midas gold corp has now instituted its’ name change to “Perpetua” and is listed on the Nasdaq exchange with the symbol of PPTA. I “nibbled” on a little last week since it appears that there is not much downside any longer technically.

      Feb 21, 2021 21:32 PM

      The original Perpetua’s story is a favorite of mine. She chose martyrdom in the arena–torn apart by wild animals–rather than renounce her faith. Her well off patrician family pleaded with her–the roman’s didn’t really want to kill her and would have gladly accepted a token renunciation but she forced their hand.

      Funny how her story can come to life again.

    Feb 21, 2021 21:06 AM

    Great interview with Bob Thompson on Sprott’s Weekly Wrap Up, Eric Sprott dropped $40 million into PSLV last week. If you haven’t listened in you should, sorry if someone else has already provided a link. DT

    Feb 21, 2021 21:19 AM

    Gold/$CAD Update!

    The time is fast and quickly approaching. I’m expecting the blood bad phase starting tonight When gold open.. Now I don’t know what silver brings but I do know with history that when these events take place silver can drop very quickly. This is not to say that exploration and micro/smal cap stocks have not bitten in either silver or gold. Some look to have indeed done that.

    My point is this, the pattern that I’m following with you guys has us dropping heavily this week and finally possibly putting the final bottom as I have explained in previous post. Could the bottom come week one or two of March possibly but we are here now and as I’ve said me and doc could not differ anymore then on timeline. I do not see this dragging much longer pass this final week of not one or two weeks into March that’s it.

    The price target I have for this low is bang on and very close to the pattern I’m following and is very promising as a previous string resistance zone.

    Coincidentally as I had discussed months ago, the cad has a date with higher prices and will be in a bull trend alongside commodities. I’m expecting this week if not next for cad to make a serious move into that $.85-.87 region before correcting.. by the looks of things of gold does put in its final low this week it could drag the cad down with it a bit but the move will target that $.85-.87 very fast and very soon..

    Best to all and have your shopping dollars ready some amazing deals to come.


      Feb 21, 2021 21:09 AM

      Thanks Glenster. Keep up with the updates, and let us know loud and clear when you think the low is in.

        Feb 21, 2021 21:53 AM

        Your welcome Cancukski! I will try my best, however I’m only human lol..

        For what it’s worth I have the equities/Dow Jones continuing to march higher possibly three, four or even five more weeks higher before A meaningful correction. Well that at least is what I’m gathering from the charts.


      Feb 21, 2021 21:56 PM

      There’s a reason that the Canadian dollar is known as a commodity currency. Thanks Glen.

    Feb 21, 2021 21:20 AM


    Feb 21, 2021 21:29 AM

    Gold fever has left me for COPPER FEVER! Prices are going up! I even ordered a copper supplement so I can deal with the stress! LOL! DT

      Feb 21, 2021 21:55 AM


      Copper is a good thing in fact it’s coming back in hole modifications and renovations my wife wants to make the kitchen all copper LOL..


        Feb 21, 2021 21:21 PM

        Hi Glen, that is an interesting thought, I get fed up with watching home renovations with stainless steel appliances, now copper appliances, I like that idea. My kitchen looks like it was designed by a mafioso capo, he got one thing right there is a window above the kitchen sink, if anybody gets shot it won’t be him. I figure by the time I leave this place it will be in style again. DT

      Feb 21, 2021 21:55 AM

      Hole=home lol

    Feb 21, 2021 21:52 PM

    Is anyone thinking of using an inverse mining ETF to short the miners this week?

    It seems many are expecting a further smash-down in mining stocks, and if so wouldn’t a position in (JDST) or (DUST) be a good way to back that conviction?

      Feb 21, 2021 21:33 PM


      That might be very interesting! I get what your saying.. As you know my conviction is 100% but the act of shorting or going bear etf goes against my principles lol.. Don’t ask me why..

      The only reason I come up with is, the bull is the bull and much more powerful so swings can happen rapidly and when your best friend is the Don at the party, I would not, could not betray it 😬..

      But you raise valid points as to not be married to any one side! I agree

      Have thought of it


        Feb 21, 2021 21:08 PM

        Yeah, if one is absolutely convinced that the Gold miners are going down, then a position in JDST or DUST would be the logical path to follow, and would allow good profits on the way down, that could then be rotated over to buying the bottom in miners when it is put in.

        It seems like almost everyone is bearish on the set up in the PMs for the short to medium term, from yourself, to Doc, to Jordan, to Gary Savage, to Rambus, and more. If everyone is convinced the miners are going lower, then shorting them would be the correct play.

        Personally, I’m still holding out a bit longer to see if Gold doesn’t do a W-shaped “Double-Bottom” at that $1767-$1768 area, and bounce from last week’s plunge, but things have been quite weak in the yellow metal for some time, and could get weaker, as most are pointing out.

        I’m extremely well-allocated to the PMs on the long bullish side of the bet, but have even considered just taking out a JDST or DUST position as a hedge to that long exposure, and I’m still not 100% convinced that we are going to plunge further.

        However, if I did feel that convicted, like many analysts do, that there was a sure bet that the miners were pulling down this week and over the next few weeks, then there is no logical way not to take out a short position to capitalize on that trend.

        Just some food for thought to mull over for the coming week.

          Feb 21, 2021 21:20 PM


          Yes you make good points! I’m comfortable the way I play the game. I’m 100% sure we are going lower that’s just me and my conviction but has nothing g to do with shorting or trying something different. Maybe it’s the karma in me or the don’t try your luck twice or jinx or vudu whatever it is, I’m traditional and play one side only. This does not change my outset we are close to a bottom but not quite..

          Then again would I be shocked if your w bottom and fake down turned? Not one bit.. I’ve been advocating buying these lows and many miners I believe have already bottomed. As Matt mentioned mid tiers and large cap are going to get handed soon. Also small caps will go lower but some have bottomed.

          We are well versed looking at daily, weekly and monthly we see the trends so easier to dictate bottoms. Nothing is guaranteed. For example to me Scorpio looks like it has bottomed ahead of gold.. what makes me think that? The price action, volume and no gaps left open.. Classic!


            Feb 21, 2021 21:45 PM

            Thanks for that response Glen, and everyone should do what they are most comfortable with for sure. Personally, if I feel there is a good chance the macro trend is going in a certain direction, up or down, then I’ll place my bets accordingly, as once can make money in either direction — a bullish market setup or a bearish market set up.

            I just can’t remember a time recently where more analysts were all in agreement that the metals and miners were definitely heading down, and so it just seems like this would the time folks would want to use inverse ETFs in the miners or options to back that position and profit from it.

            Coming into this week, the picture is less clear to me personally, on if we’ll see a swan-dive down into the blood bath phase, or if we’ll see an oversold bounce off the level from last week, that nicely synched up with the November low, as a big W-shaped double bottom.

            When things are unclear like this, sometimes, I’ll hedge a long position with a small short position, and if things do dip down, then pull the profits on the short, to redeploy into buying the dip. Since there was so much consensus on the direction being down, I just wandered if any other investors were thinking of deploying the same strategy. It makes me nervous when everyone is lined up on one side of the boat and in agreement, but I also don’t want to open myself up for too much downside exposure to my long positions without protecting myself with a hedge. Decisions… decisions….

      Feb 21, 2021 21:57 PM

      Hi Ex, I am treating the mining stocks as business as usual for now. DT

        Feb 21, 2021 21:01 PM


        Feb 21, 2021 21:09 PM

        Thanks DT. What does business as usual mean though?

        Do you expect the miners to keep plunging lower, or do you think we may see an oversold bounce here, and start a new uptrend?

          Feb 21, 2021 21:13 PM

          I think we are in oversold territory, I am constantly trading in and out of stocks and have been doing quite well lately. I think you have a much better handle on the short term direction in the mining shares, but honestly I believe the bottom is in, so I will keep trading and sell when a particular trade starts to turn against me. I believe a turnaround is very close, within a week to ten days. My biggest concern or fear is for the effect conventional markets will have on the miners and that could happen at anytime in the next six months. DT

            Feb 21, 2021 21:34 PM

            Thanks DT. Yes, after 7 months of correcting in Gold, mostly due to rising 10 year treasury yields, and stagnant CPI inflation readings, one would think both those trends would reverse course soon. As for Silver, it has held up much better than Gold during this period, and really, so have many of the PM miners. I agree with you that, ultimately, each miner needs to be analyzed individually, and bought/sold on it’s own unique journey, but was just looking at what you expected in a general sense across the mining stocks. Like you, I’m leaning more towards the bottom being mostly in at this point, but am listening to what most technicians are saying about the further weakness they see in the charts for the next few weeks to months, so it is definitely time to stay on high alert, and be vigilant. Cheers!

            Feb 21, 2021 21:10 PM

            -1 lol

            Dt I never give minus one but it seems what I feel you wanted to say may have been changed with due pressure! Speak your true voice.

            I believe what you were trying to say is the bankers/algo rythms have and always have been able to break miners lower so your use to what can happen but you know very well to wait it out because eventually you will be put in a winning position..

            However there is pain to come this week that will drop many miners down to prices that kick your chops and many don’t get it because they have been buying at higher prices trying to justify what’s coming..


            Feb 22, 2021 22:46 AM

            Glen, I never repeat never changed anything that I wanted to say or was pressured to do so, you are simply upset because I haven’t trumpeted your line of thinking. There are no experts when it comes to future predictions in life and even more so in the markets. I learned that a long time ago. DT

            Feb 22, 2021 22:37 AM

            +1 DT. Very well-stated.

    Feb 21, 2021 21:37 PM

    I will point out again for those looking at uranium to consider the uranium royalty warrants. Bargain value with nice leverage to uranium royalty.

      Feb 21, 2021 21:05 PM


      Your very diversified! Good stuff 🙂
      You are the king of warrants no doubt.. I will keep an eye out at the same time I hope your ready to make some serious coin in this coming down draft as I have predicted in the gold and miners..

      Gold night update!

      Gold opened up exactly were I wanted it to! And it should reverse very soon or midnight 2 am and head down!


        Feb 21, 2021 21:23 PM

        Thanks Glen. I have my eye on a few gold plays that I’ll be jumping all over if the selloff happens to the extent you’ve been talking about….have to be honest tho I’m hoping it doesn’t happen.

    Feb 21, 2021 21:25 PM


    We’re in the world are you? Gold is struggling here and now.. The line in the sand is $1791 watch the reversal! If it doesn’t the low Coolidge be in.. If it reverses glen is the man lol..

    Cheers buddy!

    Soon we will turn very soon..


      Feb 21, 2021 21:14 PM

      Metals want to go up. Several small smashes met with failure. Larger smash now. 3:00 Am in London is a good time. Morning before market opens is another shot. They always do it at the weakest point because it is fraud. Let us see what is going on at 11:00 AM eastern. But …if they want to do it, they will do it. Fundamentals are all great…

        Feb 21, 2021 21:14 PM


        You got some cojones to call me out.. nevertheless you will be made foolish.. you have your charts upside down 🙂


      Feb 21, 2021 21:25 PM

      Glen, what do you think of this quarterly chart? While you’re looking, notice that gold never had back-to-back negative quarters between 2001 and 2012.

        Feb 21, 2021 21:34 PM

        Here’s a quarterly silver chart that shows how the recent new high was really no different than the high in Q3:

        Feb 21, 2021 21:47 PM


        With all due respect, your up against a titan in charts.. I don’t recall every calling you out and trying to disprove your method.. Your reading the charts dead wrong and it’s going to look foolish..

        Gold is heading down and everyone in here ex, Matt yourself etc think otherwise and that is bullish sign for me..

        Again I’m not a bear and I’m not here to make people happy I’m here to show you my work and trend. You can fight me and argued me and try and convince me but we have a date with lower gold prices! Ain’t no one charting like me lately simply.


          Feb 21, 2021 21:54 PM

          Glen, with all due respect, I have not said that it won’t go lower. I differ from the bear herd in that they are way too bearish, especially when it comes to the miners. Among the “experts” there are far more bears than bulls right now and that should dramatically limit the downside since they have already influenced many followers to sell.

            Feb 21, 2021 21:11 PM

            Bot doubting you in the least. I was merely saying that if things are going down tomorrow, Sunday or any night means nothing. If they are going to do it to be consistent with the charts, they do it. I was just looking at your note to Jerry and saying…wait. Hours away from reality. I am charting challenged. I know criminality and that’s all… and we are in a market controlled by criminals. Hang in there…it is not as if the metals have been on a roll for 7 months. Only the general markets never correct.

            Feb 21, 2021 21:23 PM


            I agree with you 100% don’t think any different.. I don’t know what more to say to you. You are the professor all I’m saying is that there is a current magnet that is brining us lower. If you think about it everything I’m saying really lines up with what you have said. It just seems that we come across different.

            1. Gold is eventually going higher and in a bull
            2. Gold May head down and if it does it will be short lived
            3. The miners are diverging and gold on the charts
            4. Fed printing money
            5. Inflation to Ramp up
            6. Oil going higher
            6. Many small cap and exploration and some miners have already bottomed
            7. Silver is the only one I’m on the fence

            8. Finally the numbers you mentioned on ker for the down if we go is oefedrkt in line with my number lol..

            Matt we are in the same page!

            All I’m saying is if we go lower buying opportunity of a life time with some of these miners like my iamgold or barrick gold, golden star resources so many I see..

            We go from waiting to buying. That’s all amigo 😃



            Feb 21, 2021 21:30 PM

            MATT, GLEN EX, IT was a guy named Plunger who contributes to Rambus once every quarter…not as for Rambus….he got 100% out of the PM’s at the end of January, but has said there might be coming “turbulence”…and that it would not be a bad place to pick up gold miners here….but he said that he is not yet dipping his fishing-line back in the pond yet. He thinks is may be several months before the gold stocks really get going again. So he is a bit more nuanced…than the Plunger guy. I imagine if Matt’s scenario plays out many good chartists and their subs will get left in the J-Dust:)

            Feb 21, 2021 21:04 PM

            Glen, there are multiple magnets tugging at gold from below as well as above. The question is always which one will win.
            This has already been a worse correction than the crash last March.

            Feb 21, 2021 21:46 PM

            Thanks Confused. Yes, I’ve seen plunger post for years over at Gold Tent, but thought that was just Rambus’s name over there, and didn’t realize they were 2 separate people. Well it sounds like Rambus made the correct call to pull out of PMs back in January then, and Plunger is shifting over to the current consensus view that the PM sector is going to be heading lower for longer.

            As mentioned above, it makes me nervous when everyone is on the same side of the boat and expecting the same outcome (in this case that Gold is going to be plunging {pun intended} to much lower lows in a blood bath phase over the next 2-6 weeks).

            That may very well be what plays out, and why I asked if anyone was backing up these projections by taking positions in the inverse ETFs like JDST or DUST and putting money behind their conviction calls for the coming few weeks.

            I’m prepared to hedge my longer bullish bets, with a smaller stake in one of the inverse ETFs, but like to take each level as they come and not put the cart in front of the horse. Last week I wanted to see the 233 day EMA and the higher low of $1784 hold and they did not, but the daily close was at $1768.60 mid week, about a dollar higher than the November low, (after dipping down lower than that intraday). Before shifting over to bearish damage control mode or taking out a short mining position, I want to see if Gold has the potential of rallying this week, making last week’s move the test of the November low and a double bottom. If things open up in a blood bath phase, then I’ll take evasive action in my trading account to try and limit some of the losses, and will watch closely for a bottom to top up mining positions if they go on the clearance rack.

          Feb 21, 2021 21:17 PM

          Saying it another way…where ever we are the night before, means nothing. They hit it while we are asleep or while the market is closed for us. Tomorrow could be the worst day for metals in history… because they can do it.

            Feb 21, 2021 21:23 PM

            No David………that would be 1913……. 🙂

            Feb 21, 2021 21:27 PM

            But,….I agree….they can do it……

            Feb 21, 2021 21:40 PM


            I don’t agree because my charts had this coming. If you misread the charts that’s on you and so you must reflect back to the drawing board and see we’re it went wrong. Been there done that. Exactly what Matt says that manipulation can only go so far well maybe he can speak for himself.

            My point is this, cycles are 100% real and 100% sure that there not 100% identical! Not sure if you or anyone understands me. When you say they can, I agree they can paint different things shit they can’t change a whats evident and coming. Maybe by timeline or pattern but overall the market will speak and it is your job to read that charts and for see.

            I’m a student of the game and a real good visionary.. intuition is what has helped me rebound and succeed.. knowing who the best are and learning from them is key not putting them down.



      Feb 21, 2021 21:44 PM

      Hello Glen,
      I have been in shell shock, since being released from the KER JAIL…. 🙂

        Feb 21, 2021 21:06 PM

        I am still long……..and will continue to be… is still better than bonds… lol…

          Feb 21, 2021 21:12 PM

          Besides, …my platinum is doing great…phyz…..try buying some….harder to buy than silver….

            Feb 21, 2021 21:59 PM

            Jerry lol!

            I don’t even know we’re you would begin to buy platinum physical! Jerry I nominate you king of physical.

            Wolf king of warrants
            Jerry king of physical
            Matt king of charts ( I’m up your arse Matt lol)

            Feb 21, 2021 21:08 PM


            Feb 21, 2021 21:26 PM

            Yes Jerry. Physical silver is way above spot right now and ready to surge higher with its fellow ‘commodity’ metals.

            Nice to see you out of jail. We all understood that once that picture of you in the capitol wearing the buffalo robe and horns went viral it meant you would have to go to ground.

            Nice red/white/blue facial paint job too.

            Feb 21, 2021 21:32 PM

            Yes, it took me a lot of time in the make up department…

            Feb 21, 2021 21:49 PM

            And I assume you wear the paint when posting.

            Feb 21, 2021 21:51 PM

            Lol……just on the week ends…..

    Feb 21, 2021 21:36 PM

    Demartino (sp) said something interesting about the Fed in an interview this week. Something to the effect/affect that the Fed doesn’t need to be done away with or transferred to Treasury as neither would fix the problem. She was saying, I think, it needs to be totally restructured. Makes some sense when there may be a need for the concept, but have to keep it from being corrupted. …something to think about..

      Feb 21, 2021 21:42 PM

      To late for a restructure……

        Feb 21, 2021 21:46 PM

        Accounting rules have been changed…..FASBE 56 rule changed everything…..No accounting for anything…..the govt. can hide anything they want at this stage.
        Skidmore is coming out this week, I believe , and the stolen money will be in excess of $90 TRILLION………Fitts was out with some great info. at usawatchdog….

      Feb 21, 2021 21:04 PM

      FASB rules all part of the problem. Corporations proved they can’t be trusted to self regulate. The profit motive and level playing field are conflicting goals. Laws control fairness. Man can’t be fair.

        Feb 21, 2021 21:10 PM

        Problem……again…. no laws…….we are in a pickle and the general public does not know it….

          Feb 21, 2021 21:22 PM

          We have a whole lot more problems……than, if gold and silver go up or down….
          Freedom being one of them…..

        Feb 21, 2021 21:36 PM

        Had laws, can get them back. Even if you started a new country, you need laws. Just restore what we got. If start over, probably have to phase through a long series of autocrats with only self interest. Too many generations destroyed. Just fix what we got. Autocrats never have an alternative plan. Self interest is not a plan.

          Feb 21, 2021 21:43 PM

          Agree David……

            Feb 21, 2021 21:48 PM

            I will not go any further,….this gets off into politics….and this is the trading and mining sector…..

            Feb 21, 2021 21:19 PM

            Speaking of miners, they have walked back prices already. Won’t be too far to go by open. Nothing real about these actions…again.

    Feb 21, 2021 21:52 PM


    Yes I’ve heard of plunger as well and I can’t say to much but again he is another 50/50 like ex said previous with rambus. I just think Matt, ex, doc me and few others are very Strongly opinionated and it bolds well for us.. I have plenty of respect for them and the ker family including Jerry, Irish, dt, wolf, Gary, silver ( even though he took a cheap shot at me) , and many others because even when I’m upset or angry I’ve leaned not to let emotion take over and let reason win!


      Feb 22, 2021 22:23 AM

      I totally agree that the depth of TA knowledge on this site is absolutely top shelf. I have learned a lot and appreciated the generous insights that MATT/EX/ and DOCs have shared on KER for a decade now.
      I really hope that “the crew” can hold together through this next phase(s)….hopefully it will be a massive “impulse move” in the Spring!

    Feb 21, 2021 21:36 PM

    Declining Wedge. Not bearish.

    Feb 21, 2021 21:33 PM

    David Morgan talks to James McDonald of (KTN) (KOOYF) Kootenay Silver Inc. at the SIF

    “James McDonald, President, CEO & Director of Kootenay Silver Inc and David Morgan of The Morgan Report discuss the company’s near-term economic development of its priority silver projects located in the states of Sonora, Sinaloa and Chihuahua, Mexico, respectively at the Virtual Silver Investor Forum on February 11, 2021.”

      Feb 21, 2021 21:37 PM

      Glenn Jessome of Silver Tiger Metals Inc.(SLVR) (SLVTF) presents at the Virtual Silver Investor Forum on February 11, 2021.

    Feb 21, 2021 21:44 PM

    URA: The Uranium Rally May Be Getting Ahead Of Itself

    Feb. 21, 2021 – Harrison Schwartz – Seeking Alpha

    – Uranium mining stocks have skyrocketed in recent months following Cameco’s temporary shutdown of Cigar Lake and Kazatomprom’s efforts to stop a glut.

    – U308 prices rose considerably last year as COVID caused a decline in production – the renewal of production may have the opposite effect.

    – The long-term outlook for uranium is strong considering the shortage which is expected to arrive around 2023-2025.

    – The short-term outlook for uranium is weak considering there is unlikely be a shortage this year and most miners are expected to lose money.

    – URA and uranium stocks are surging, but it may be best to wait for the fundamentals to catch up before buying.

      Feb 22, 2021 22:16 AM

      It does seem like the Uranium stocks have really run somewhat beyond the current fundamentals with spot Uranium still hovering around $30, and with most U stocks up 200% – 1400% off their March sector lows.

      Performance #Chart of a dirty dozen Uranium Stocks from March 18, 2020 to present:

        Feb 22, 2021 22:29 AM

        Performance Bar #Chart of a dirty dozen #Uranium Stocks from March 18, 2020 to present:

        North Shore Global Uranium Mining ETF (URNM) – up 255%
        Cameco (CCJ) – up 204%
        Energy Fuels (UUUU) – up 541%
        Ur-Energy (URG) – up 335%
        Denison Mines (DNN) – up 500%
        NexGen Energy (NXE) – up 577%
        Uranium Energy Corp (UEC) – up 418%
        enCore Energy (EU.TO) – up 1407%
        Global Atomic (GLO.TO) – up 618%
        Laramide Resources (LAM.TO) – up 278%
        Deep Yellow (DYLLF) – up 425%
        Bannerman Resource (BNNLF) Up 779%

          Feb 22, 2021 22:23 AM

          Congrats on owning most of the uranium movers. Looks like this AM they did a walkdown of Platinum. That may be something to puck up as it has had a move but appears to have some relative space to move compared to other PMs. It used to be a more expensive metal at one time (relatively). Anyway “green and clean” is the theme.

            Feb 22, 2021 22:02 AM

            Thanks David. Yeah, I owned Energy Fuels, Ur-Energy, Denison Mines, NexGen Energy, and Uranium Energy Corp during that time period, and in the last few months had picked up Azaraga Uranium and Standard Uranium not discussed up above, and while they’ve trended higher, it wasn’t to the same degree.

            As for Platinum, it had been moving up quite nicely, so taking a small breather here makes sense. I only show it down about 1.17% to $1278, so that’s not too bad of a drawdown. 2/3 of the PGM miners are also still up in the green on the day.


          Feb 22, 2021 22:26 AM

          Cool charts! Is there a way to singularly numerate your Index?
          (NEM may have bottomed, no matter its Bearish Engulfment.)

            Feb 22, 2021 22:06 AM

            Hi BDC – The best index to use for the Uranium sector is (URNM) the North Shore Global Uranium Mining ETF, as it has a good distribution of companies and weightings in them.

            The list of 12 uranium stocks I listed above were just 12 of the most followed companies, but there were more U stocks of note that I couldn’t fit on there due to 12 company limit in stockcharts (like Boss Energy, Azarga Uranium, UEX corp, ALX Uranium, Purepoint, Skyharbour, GoviEx, Forsys Metals, Canalaska, Anfield Energy, Standard Uranium, etc…)

    Feb 22, 2021 22:28 AM

    Focus: Sierra Metals Inc (SMTS):

      Feb 22, 2021 22:29 AM

      ATL: Mar 2020 0.45 — Volume: 26 Jun 2.75

        Feb 22, 2021 22:31 AM

        CW(A): 24 Sept 1.38 — CW(F)ATH: 13 Jan 3.87
        Retrace: 17 Feb 2.67 — ABCD(1:1) Ext: 2.75
        Possible lower bottom: CD(1:1.5) Ext: 2.33

    Feb 22, 2021 22:16 AM

    Well, so far today, no real downside fireworks in the PM sector, and it has actually been a nice green start to the day.

    Gold has continued to bounce higher to $1806-$1807
    Silver has continued moving higher to $27.88

    GDX is up 2.44%
    GDXJ is up 3.4%
    SIL is up 3.75%
    SILJ is up 4.4%

      Feb 22, 2021 22:24 AM

      Breakthrough Dead Cat Territory?

      Feb 22, 2021 22:34 AM

      The bears should have known they had a problem when gold jumped to 1788 on Friday despite the new low on Thursday night going below 1760. Likewise, they were warned a week ago when they were unable to accomplish back-to-back weekly closes below the 50 week MA. The market speaks but most don’t listen.

        Feb 22, 2021 22:43 AM

        Matthew – Good comments regarding the 50 week MA. Yes, the market speaks.

        Well, at least so far, it’s looking like we had a nice double bottom bounce off the low last week, and even though the November low was pierced in overnight trading last week, on the daily close, it still came in $1768 and some change mid week, still $1 above the Nov low of $1767. This still could end up being a W-shaped bottom process, but it is still to early to know and we’ll need to see more follow through buying this week and next, but it is nice to see the $18 handle again on Gold, and most miners are responding quite nicely to the upside.

        At least so far, things are not as dramatic to the downside as some were expecting. Just to be safe I trimmed a few gold positions this morning into the strength to raise a few funds. I was and am open to considering what most of the technicians were saying about lower lows for longer, but am sure glad to see my portfolio rocking up to new all time highs today.

          Feb 22, 2021 22:08 AM

          To be clear, I’m not suggesting that we bulls are in the clear yet. However, even if there is more downside ahead, the market’s message last week was still a bullish one. So, any further downside should be quick and limited. It’s a big deal that they couldn’t exploit their advantage when they should have despite the “scary” and psychologically significant break to a new low. They should have been able to press their dominance AT THE TIME THE BREAK HAPPENED and not days later.

          Gold miners (GDM) at important resistance:

            Feb 22, 2021 22:57 AM

            Big Daddy Newmont will be featured tomorrow.
            (Friday’s impressive MaxSat 6 needs follow-up.)

    Feb 22, 2021 22:45 AM

    Dr Copper continues to strut his stuff… moving even higher today to $4.13

      Feb 22, 2021 22:58 AM

      Most Copper miners are responding quite nicely still.

      COPX is up 3.5% today

      WRN Western Copper and Gold is up 11% today
      (Doc, you got to be as happy about the action lately in this one as I am).

    Feb 22, 2021 22:52 AM

    Purchased another “tad” of SAND and of a stock noone is talking about: Oceana.

      Feb 22, 2021 22:46 PM

      you and me Doc re OGC

    Feb 22, 2021 22:53 AM


    Parts of your story add up but you’ve left plenty out of course to suit your own narrative as always I’ll leave it at that. First of all I did indeed mention that we were forming a right shoulder the pattern that I was looking at that time was very close or nearly identical to the one I’m currently following now which was my original pattern. All these numbers that you’re giving more numbers that I gave out before gold made its moves they were really high in accuracy in fact many times they came very close to my price points I did not see anybody else doing that. You’re right in fact this happened about three weeks ago when everybody in here including yourself was ultra bullish and very confident that the November law would not be broken you kept insisting that the price of gold action was oscillating between moving averages and that’s fine that’s great and dandy but I kept insisting with price action day today and predicting we’re gold was going before it was happening and before gold made It’s moved down I went against my own pattern and said ladies and gentlemen we are breaking the November low which meant the right shoulder is now in validated this was done in real time and before it happened all the while you kept insisting it was a double bottom and we would not break the November low which it was highly unlikely. Not only have we broke in the November little enclosed below it you’re still in denial that we may go even lower you’re fighting yourself.I never once heard docs say that gold was going to break November little three weeks ago or even way before that he may have said that he seen some weakness but I never heard on record doc say God will break November low and is headed lower in fact again the only person that I have on record saying that is chartser. In fact since you keep posting about other bloggers or other posters and you link them to the ker, I can’t recollect any one of them going as far back as three weeks when I broke my pattern and said we’re heading lower ever seeing that we would break November law convincingly nothing in between like I do.

    So if you want to talk about putting my money where my mouth is I’ve been doing that flat out in real time calling gold price action before it happens and even changing the pattern before it happens all the while giving everybody sound advice I’m sorry you have not done that. And that’s nothing against you am I record speaks for itself and everybody on here knows it.


      Feb 22, 2021 22:21 AM

      Glen, I don’t have time to get into this with you today, but there was nothing I posted up above that wasn’t exactly what you said, and it had nothing to do with a narrative.

      If you recall, for most of January you repeatedly stated, in your dozens of posts about the inverse H&S pattern you saw, that we were near a bottom and would be beheading up soon. You felt different levels would hold “very soon” and then bounce (1880-1890), then (1850-1880), then (1817-1827) and gold would move higher to break out from the right shoulder. You stated over and over that the right shoulder “had to hold, must hold…”

      Clearly that didn’t happen and the H&S pattern was a failed pattern, as I pointed out the first time Gold dropped to $1810, and then it removed all doubt of the pattern failing when Gold went down and closed at $1784. You have since changed your views 180 degrees, and have become vocal that breaking the November low is a foregone conclusion and the Gold is heading down into the $1671-$1685 level. If someone was following your real time quotes then they would have been wrong-footed from January to present, still waiting for that right shoulder to hold and for Gold to rocket up higher.

      Also, please show me where I was “ultra bullish” 3-4 weeks ago, because I wasn’t, and that statement is your narrative. I stated a number of times that gold was trading in a sideways to down channel that was continuing to narrow and build energy for a big break one way or the other between the 55 day EMA and 233 day EMA, and that I wanted to see the 233 day EMA hold, and more recently I wanted to see the $1784 “higher low” hold. How is that “ultra bullish”?

      You also chastised the other pro technicians analysis I posted and my comments about being concerned that the November lows holding, as being BS designed as “scare tactics,” before flip-flopping from buy the right shoulder for the imminent rally, to Gold is 100% taking out it’s November lows and heading down to $1675-$1685 level.

      I at least have remained consistently concerned that the November low not break decisively on a closing basis, as I didn’t want to see a new lower low and the associated chart damage. Again, none of my comments were ultra bullish in the slightest, but I did say I was invested for the bullish thesis, and on days like this, where we are seeing a continued bounce off the double bottom low last week, (when you expected a bloodbath today), then I’m glad to see my portfolio rocketing up to all time highs.

      Lastly, I’ve been discussing what I’ve been buying for stocks most days on here as “real time” as it gets, and have been for years. That is far more valuable in my opinion, than obsessing on every move that happens to the gold price. We’ll have to leave it there, and see how things develop and if gold can hold the double bottom, or if it does give way to lower lows for longer as most analysts have been projecting. I trimmed back my Coeur and Novo position a bit today, as well as selling out of my Cypherpunk Holdings (as mentioned up at the top of the blog…. “real time”) 🙂

        Feb 22, 2021 22:12 AM


        I don’t have time either your a champ lol.. keep positing your hesitant style of calls with know conviction. I at least make bold calls and clearly have kept all listeners day to day with what I’m doing and price action with gold has been stellar. Not perfect but stellar. An no it’s not an obsession with gold price but the gold price is the key fundamental driver of the miners and if you don’t know how to read it then you don’t have such advantage as I clearly see.. I hope you trimmed today.


    Feb 22, 2021 22:58 AM


    We will have to disagree on the no experts.. everything I learned came from experts lol. I also don’t need trumpeters or fans..



    Feb 22, 2021 22:13 AM

    Gold update!

    The overnight resistance of $1791 did not hold no fret..

    Is this a suckers rally? Did anyone sell into this strength for short term trading?

    The new line in the sand is $1810-$1816 strong resistance..

    I’m still expecting the hard smack down starting tonight going into Wednesday Thursday..

    Let’s see what gives..


    Feb 22, 2021 22:13 AM

    OceanaGold could still go lower based on that ugly weekly chart. I’d guess at least 1.44 (US) unless the whole sector takes off.

    Feb 22, 2021 22:19 AM

    Hecla has already cleared every price that followed the huge spike on Feb 1…

    Feb 22, 2021 22:22 AM
    Feb 22, 2021 22:14 AM

    Note Michael Boutros (30:55):

    Feb 22, 2021 22:56 AM

    It’s nice to Silver up with a $28 handle again today.

    Feb 22, 2021 22:24 AM
    Feb 22, 2021 22:26 AM

    GLD at resistance:

    I might have posted that already but that’s ok.

    Feb 22, 2021 22:33 AM

    Relative to this fork support, gold filled its March 23 gap:

    Feb 22, 2021 22:38 AM

    Great charts as always Matthew. Do you see Hecla in the $10’s if silver could get into the $30’s???

      Feb 22, 2021 22:59 AM

      Yes, easily. I also think $40 is the minimum target for silver and that 50+ is more likely. The writing is on the wall in neon paint so I don’t see the market allowing it to remain below 50 for long now that gold has shattered its old high. I’ve never seen such a bullish disconnect between the two metals and that is probably precisely because silver is going to catch up quickly.
      The gold-silver ratio hit AT LEAST a 90 year high last year and has been crashing ever since as all that clueless “gold only” money found itself on the very crowded wrong side of the trade.

        Feb 22, 2021 22:39 PM

        Yes, Silver likes to play catchup to Gold, and as we mentioned last year when Gold took out it’s all time high, silver still has a lot of outperformance in front of it, versus gold, to take out it’s all time high of $49. It is just a matter of time before Silver breaks out above the $30-$32 level of resistance again, and marches higher to make a run a that old high. Whether it happens later this year or next year, odds are Silver has a date with destiny to reach new all time highs.

        What is most interesting is how low the valuations are in the Silver miners at current Silver prices, compared to where they were valued the last time Silver was up around $28 back in 2011. Even at current metals prices the miners still have a long ways to run to get back to those valuations, and once the metals prices are above $30+ again, these stocks are going to be multi-baggers.

        Ever Upward!

          Feb 22, 2021 22:24 PM

          Need to run the cup over…again, but, with silver……as we mentioned last yrs….

            Feb 22, 2021 22:08 PM

            Yes OOTB. May the Silver Cupeth runneth over….

    Feb 22, 2021 22:19 AM

    GDX and its anchored VWAP based on the March low are currently both at 34.15…

    A close above it will be very positive.

      Feb 22, 2021 22:21 AM

      IPT needs to close above 1.00…

        Feb 22, 2021 22:57 PM

        Looks like it closed right at $1.00. Tomorrow?

          Feb 22, 2021 22:55 PM

          I like what it accomplished today and we don’t necessarily need a big “up” day tomorrow but that’s what we should hope for, and the stronger the better.

            Feb 22, 2021 22:46 PM

            That is a lot of convergence in that chart! Thanks. Looks good.

            Feb 22, 2021 22:31 PM

            Wow. Matthew – very interesting IPT chart, and I agree with Charles, that is a lot of technical convergences on there regarding today’s candle. Looks like Impact is at a key inflection point, and about to release all that energy in a big way. (With the recent strength in Silver it’s looking primed to pop).

    Feb 22, 2021 22:52 AM

    STATS preview (WIP):

      Feb 22, 2021 22:59 PM

      Hi BDC – Can you explain Max Saturation? Not familiar with it.

        Feb 22, 2021 22:04 PM

        Charles, thank you for asking:

        Saturation Timing and Trade System (STATS)

        Saturation can indicate a possible Turn: Swing, Correction, Interim Move, etc. Seven Saturation Factors determine Turn Propensity. Partial or Maximum Saturation is always required (or “X”), e.g. a MaxSat of 6 is strong: Six of the Factors are at Maximum Saturation.

        The Factors themselves are proprietary for now. They are used algorithmically in STATS, which has been in final stages of development for the past month. It may be computerized in the future, but for now “Caveman Computing” is used (I need another five fingers…lol).


          Feb 22, 2021 22:53 PM

          Thanks BDC for the explanation. I wish you all the best in developing it.

            Feb 22, 2021 22:36 PM

            Thanks again. Of course, no method works all the time.
            Remember to use stops, especially if short term trading.

    Feb 22, 2021 22:48 PM

    Thanks for all the great chart recently. Your instincts were right on about direction.

      Feb 22, 2021 22:57 PM

      You’re welcome, David. There’s a good chance we have a major low here and not just a bounce.

    Feb 22, 2021 22:21 PM

    Thanks for all your posts and charts. I have been lurking on KER since 2013/14 and you have been more accurate than anyone else. What do you see happening to the broader stock market- SPY or QQQ ? It is absurdly overvalued and has stayed that way for nearly a decade. I keep thinking of buying some long term puts but shorting seems so dangerous. Any long term thoughts on how to navigate the eventual bear market?

    Feb 23, 2021 23:25 AM

    You’re welcome, Pyrite. The stock market looks ready for a correction now or soon but I doubt very much that it will be a crash or even a mini crash. It is absurdly valued but the bond market is even more absurdly valued and generally probably much riskier than a lot of big companies.

    We are at the beginning of a commodities super cycle but most people won’t entertain exposure to it anytime soon, if at all. So stocks will levitate and even rise further on massive currency creation and devaluation. Keep in mind that the stock market bull ended decisively in 2018 in real terms. The 2011-2018 stock bull was very real as the S&P/Dow nearly quadrupled versus gold in those 7 years. However, following the 2018 top, stocks fell about 50% versus gold and have still not made a new high 2.5 years later. As you know, the government and the Fed are the reason for the smoke and mirrors and they are standing by with more of the same, to infinity. So investments in commodities and especially the gold and silver sector makes the most sense to me (not advice).

    You don’t have to sell all of your “mainstream” stocks to protect yourself from inflation and you also do not have to take the risks that come with the extremely speculative miners. You probably like to speculate, as I do, but people should know that they can resist the urge to make a killing and save themselves a lot of stress and risk while also still protecting their wealth from inflation. Even the safest, highest quality bets throughout the commodities complex will perform spectacularly.

    I think you are wise to avoid shorting stocks since there is a good chance they will continue to rise for some time (big picture, there will always be corrections).

    Of course, everyone should own physical gold and/or silver stored in a safe place (again, my opinion).

    Since I rely heavily on technical analysis and am always ready to make significant changes along the way, I can’t provide a detailed roadmap for navigating what may come far into the future.