Weekend Show – Featuring Jesse Felder and Axel Merk – Just How Likely Is A US Recession?

April 9, 2022
Full Weekend Show

Welcome to another KE Report Weekend Show! On this Weekend’s show we are joined by Jesse Felder and Axel Merk. It was a slower week for the markets and metals and while it wasn’t our intention, we spend a lot of the show discussing the potential of a recession in the US.


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  • Segment 1 and 2 -Jesse Felder, Founder of The Felder Report kicks off the show with a discussion on the potential for the recession in the US. We touch on the yield curve, interest rates, US market internals, and the end of the re-opening trade. Click here to learn more about the Felder Report.
  • Segment 3 and 4 – Axel Merk, President and CIO of Merk Investments wraps up the show by recapping the Merk Research Business Cycle Chart Book. This addresses a possible recession and the key economic data Axel’s group is focused on. We also recap the Fed minutes released this week. Click here to follow Axel on Twitter.


Exclusive Company Interviews This Week


Jesse Felder
Axel Merk

    Apr 09, 2022 09:26 AM
    Apr 09, 2022 09:17 AM

    I listened to the Jesse Felder interview, it seems that the market is dictating that interest rates must go higher not The Fed. With The Fed cutting back on liquidity and bond purchases, (artificial liquidity) this has caused stock prices in the conventional market to fall. When liquidity leaves the system the remaining money becomes harder to get so interest rates must rise due to less money sloshing around in the system.

    If there is a dizzy drop in stock market prices over several days or two weeks the system will face a pinch in money and a sudden and alarming panic like occurred in 1929. DT

    Apr 09, 2022 09:08 AM

    Thanks for the Show KER team!

    Apr 09, 2022 09:51 AM

    Jesse’s comments are very noteworthy, and many others have aired the same sentiment that the die has been cast for tighter monetary policy…………………..the thing that I am watching like a hawk, is the speed of the tightening…………….if slow, markets can readjust as required…………..if fast, could lead to panicks as the data comes in……………….Pension plans will have their work cut out for them……… fixed income will be marginally higher, with bond prices dropping, while risk assets take a drubbing………………high growth commodity stories still have a lot of merit in this environment if you can find them !

    Apr 09, 2022 09:24 AM

    Thanks to all the KER guest contributors for another great week of daily editorials, company interviews with management, and another solid weekend show with Jesse and Axel.
    Also thanks to all the listeners of the podcast and radio show, and those members of the KER crew that post and participate here on the blog, sharing insights with our community. Ever Upward!

    Apr 09, 2022 09:26 AM

    The Fed Just Disengaged Its Volatility Suppression Machine

    Jesse Felder – The Felder Report – (04/06/2022)

      Apr 09, 2022 09:27 AM

      ‘We Are All Frogs In A Steadily Heating Monetary Broth’

      Jesse Felder – The Felder Report – (04/09/2022)

        Apr 09, 2022 09:50 AM

        RIBBIT, when I looked in the mirror this morning I saw a boiled Frog, RIBBIT!

      Apr 09, 2022 09:05 AM

      Yes Ex, we are already seeing volatility in the price of many commodities, commodity prices have been kept at artificial levels for so long that the artificially maintained prices have become the more dangerous the longer they were concealed. I think we could see prices ratchet a lot higher and then have a day of reckoning where they fall disastrously. Especially if people start losing their jobs, I guess that is why The Fed is so worried about employment. DT

        Apr 12, 2022 12:14 AM

        That makes sense to me DT. Yes, the longer term Commodities Supercycle, kicked off in 2020, and while there will be pullbacks along the way, the prices of real “stuff” have been going up for the last 2 years for reasons far beyond just supply chain concerns or war in Ukraine. The commodities have been undervalued relative to most other asset classes for decades now, and are starting their revaluation to levels more in alignment to where equities, bonds, and real estate have run for the last 30-40 years.

    Apr 09, 2022 09:50 PM

    Home prices are already starting to crack. Conventional markets are in a slow mo topping pattern. Everyone is waiting for the May shoe to drop to see if the FED walks their talk. Inflation has mostly been instigated due to commodity supply issues reflected in driving inflation higher which is basic demand pull inflation; of course, unrestrained money printing didn’t help matters. Also helping commodity demand pull inflation are the sanctions put on Russia. Fortunately, we haven’t seen cost push inflation secondary to unrestrained wage growth which is much more contributory to inflation then commodity inflation. With QT and increasing interest rates be prepared for the coming recession which should moderate the demand pull inflation somewhat. The markets most affected will be the housing market, stock market, and bond market. The precious metal markets like the other markets are levitating to see if the FED action in May matches their jawboning efforts. The FED this go around is going to have to prove that they are not the paper tiger they’ve been in the past—-there could be considerable pain meted out this time since their options have narrowed even further.

    Apr 09, 2022 09:14 PM

    Hi: Horrible war waged —expect 5 or 6 dollar gasoline within 3 months . massive lack of replacement parts in russia and most auto and truck parts come from japan s korea and germany . Also Russia does not produce many semi conductors and will have a hard time getting them . expect Russian economy to crash in a month or 2 . D J TRUMP JOSH HAWLEY AND PUTIN ARE ALL IN THE SAME CLOWN CAR . buy copper stocks oil and gas producers vote for SANE PEOPLE NOT COO COO NUT CASES LIKE TRUMP . BEST OF HEALTH AND WEALTH TO YOU ALL R S HAMILTON

    Apr 10, 2022 10:25 PM

    Looks like just another Monday coming. Criminals can’t tell the truth … ever

      Apr 11, 2022 11:29 AM

      Might be a better Monday. Mixed bag an hour before open.

    Apr 10, 2022 10:33 PM

    Britain has the Backbench, DC has the Biden Bench …

    Apr 11, 2022 11:30 AM

    /Ng due for a top tomorrow…it should target the day ABC up at 7.211….which corresponds exactly to the weekly chart last set of swing point fib expansion 127%….glta

    i will exit today due to terrible risk/reward relative to my entry …..although i must say the slow stoch is embedded over 80% w a strong macd and RSi hitting high…but rsi is seriously lagging the old high 10/21 on week and month chart…warning will rogers

    Apr 11, 2022 11:42 AM

    Non-linear thinking may now be best.

      Apr 11, 2022 11:41 AM

      Non-linear thinking is always the best, even when linear thinking will do.

    Apr 11, 2022 11:02 AM

    My stocks were locked in at open. Holding same levels…

    Apr 11, 2022 11:27 PM

    Who has the nuts to invest in this, HND, Nat Gas Down x2 ETF…