Weekend Show – Trading Strategies For US Markets Plus Energy And Resource Stocks
Welcome to another KE Report Weekend Show!
On this Weekend’s Show we focus a bit more on the energy and resource sector driving down into the stocks looking for value and which stocks could benefit in the near term from a revaluation. This week we saw a little bounce in markets but there is still a long way to go to turn the narrative more bullish.
Please keep in touch with Shad and I through email. Our email addresses are Fleck@kereport.com and Shad@kereport.com.
If you are still having trouble accessing our Daily Editorials on your podcast player please try to search again for “The KE Report”.
- Segment 1 and 2 – Dana Lyons, Fund Manager, kicks off the show by sharing his trading strategy for the broad markets and the current environment where the overall narrative and catalysts have not changed in months. We weigh the possibility of a quicker, waterfall type decline. Outside of the markets we discuss energy, commodities and the US Dollar.
- On Dana’s site, The Lyons Share, he is running a special promotion that he is extending to all of you. It’s a 30% discount on his trading service. Click here to take advantage of this special offer!
- Segment 3 – Dan Steffens, President of the Energy Prospectus Group joins us for a focus on the energy sector. We start big picture with some macro comments including the key drivers pushing oil and natural gas lower. We then get into the energy stocks Dan likes in terms of financials and growth plans. Click here to learn more about the Energy Prospectus Group.
- Segment 4 – Jayant Bhandari, Private Investor and Consultant wraps up the show with a focus on 2 companies who recently released PEAs that the market did not like. These companies at Maritime Resources and O3 Mining. Jayant is a shareholder of each of these companies. It’s not all bullish when you hear Jayant’s breakdown of where these companies go from here.
Exclusive Company Interviews This Week
- Skeena Resources – A Dive Into The Feasibility: After-Tax NPV (5%) of C$1.4B, 50% IRR and 1 Year Payback
- Chris Ritchie – Gold:Silver Ratio At Extremes, Economics Of Silver Assets, Where Will New Silver Supply Come From and A Production Update From Las Chispas
- Volcanic Gold Mines – Company Update at the Holly Project And Progress On New Land Concessions Along The Motagua Gold Belt
- Cartier Resources – Combined Gold Resource Now At Over 2.3million Ounces With Drill Plans To Continue To Expand
- Source Rock Royalties – A Pure Play Oil and Gas Royalty Company Focused In Western Canada
- Reyna Gold – Solid Exploration Results Returned From La Republicana And Main Zone
- TinOne Resources – Tin Exploration In Australia and New Zealand With A Focus On The Great Pyramid Tin Project
- Thor Explorations – Second Quarter 2022 Financial and Operating Results & Exploration Update At The Segilola And Douta Projects
Ditto…The finest resources programing on the entire net…IMHO
Much appreciated guys!
Thanks to all the KE Report guest contributors for another great week of daily editorials, company interviews with management, and another solid weekend show with Dana, Dan, and Jayant.
Also thanks to all the listeners of the podcast and radio show, and those members of the KER crew that post and participate here on the blog, sharing insights with our community. Ever Upward!
Thanks for a lot more good stuff. You all really keep it coming!
The kind words are appreciated Lakedweller2.
Yes, we try to keep a lot of content flowing out into the podcast universe, and hope it is insightful for investors.
How Much Is Simple Greed?
Bill Engdahl explains NatGas aspects of The Ukraine War:
“What the EU Commission and government ministers in Germany and across the EU are carefully hiding is the transformation they have created in how the natural gas price is determined today. For almost two decades the EU Commission, backed by the mega banks such as JP MorganChase or large speculative hedge funds, began to lay the basis for what is today a complete deregulation of the market for natural gas. It was promoted as the ‘liberalization’ of the European Union’s natural gas market. What it now allows is for unregulated real-time free market trading to fix prices rather than long-term contracts.”
“In September 2021 Gazprom completed its multibillion dollar undersea Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia across the Baltic Sea to northern Germany. It would double the capacity of Nord Stream 1 to 110 billion cubic meters annually, allowing Gazprom to be independent of interference with gas deliveries via its Soyuz pipeline going through Ukraine. The EU Commission, backed by the Biden Administration, blocked opening of the pipeline with bureaucratic sabotage, and finally German Chancellor Scholz imposed sanction on the pipeline on February 22 [2022] over Russian recognition of Donetsk People’s Republic and Luhansk People’s Republic. With the growing gas crisis since, the German government has refused to open Nord Stream 2 despite the fact it is finished.”
https://journal-neo.org/2022/08/31/europe-s-energy-armageddon-from-berlin-and-brussels-not-moscow/
Trends: https://tinyurl.com/4ypebbv9
Inflation Report 0830 Tuesday.
Crucial PM Point Then.
NatGas Bottom?
Ditto on the show Ex!
Excelsior
24 hours ago
Good thoughts Glenfidish, and as I mentioned about 2 months back, I had done most of my remaining shoring up of positions the first and second week of July, and then most of them rallied from July 11th/12th – mid August. I trimmed a little back to raise some funds in about 6 of the companies I had added to (out of 29), and trimmed back 3 more since then.
I did do a little adding of tiny tranches back in some names the last 2 weeks, and rebalanced some of the weightings in a number of gold and silver stocks to get everything in place in my portfolio for both weathering any further downside, but also positioning in companies that I’ve got higher conviction in that should get a bid if the PM stocks do take off in the next few months.
Thank you for your kind words and also yes you did purchase at a good time. I’m not surprised one bit!
Forever up soon…
Thanks Glendfidish. Ever Upward!
If interested:
First two recordings on king World News(MacLean & Turk) and the first 2 Articles on Wall Street on Parade about the Bad Guys and Girls.
MaCleod not MacLean
Stocks turned where they should have but I’d still sell them and buy the miners…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24COMPQ&p=W&yr=3&mn=11&dy=0&id=p54446964912&a=942652907
AMZN is going higher.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AMZN&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p91977623786&a=710290876
This one strongly suggests that silver stocks will outperform the stock market from here:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ%3ASPY&p=W&yr=3&mn=11&dy=0&id=p58999833693&a=1247984409
Hecla is well-positioned to deliver impressive moves higher:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HL&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p18451589797&a=1174402329
I hope so. Holding large positions in HL and AEM, I’m down on SSRM but I think it will recover and then some.
The picture looks so good for the whole sector that a failure here would likely not be a quick fakeout or trap. It would be catastrophic on some level. Monday doesn’t have to be strongly up or even up at all but we do not want strongly down (something like 4-5% or more).
NEM is 9% off its low while its weekly RSI(14) is back above 30 for the first time in almost 2 months…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NEM&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p41585135550&a=1205587517
NEM also just had its best week relative to the 5 week MA since it topped in April but finished on it to the penny as if to keep uncertainty high as long as possible…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NEM&p=W&yr=4&mn=3&dy=0&id=p15892297828&a=1213372658
Matthew, Holding small NEM but majority I’m focusing on AEM this time around. I think everything will go up though..
Nice, AEM is 17% off its July low and looks like it’s raring to go…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AEM&p=D&yr=1&mn=11&dy=0&id=p65900806479&a=977703006
HL needs to go up 7 points for me just to hit breakeven on my AXU position. I’m sure I will eventually will be in the money in HL, but it could be a while.
Not surprisingly at all, it looks like stocks will rise at least until the elections in November, even vs gold…
Nasdaq:GLD…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24COMPQ%3AGLD&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p68519127771&a=1029504727
The COT for silver enjoyed another very bullish improvement (as always such improvements are no good for short term predictions).
https://snalaska.us/cot/current/charts/SI.png
TICK TOCK, TICK TOCK….
The countdown to the next rate hike and subsequent smack down in PMs is underway.
Another week and half for the next bomb to drop, and PMs will be smashed down again.
You still have time, any rally in PM shares should be seen as a merciful window of opportunity to do one thing and one thing only…..
SELL
SELL
SELL
This is the LAST opportunity for you to unload your shares before the last quarter of the year starts and these stocks are ground into a fine powder.
Get your cash stockpile up, you’ll need it.
SELL
SELL
SELL
I would have to agree with Joe in this moment……….looks to me that there is more pain in PM trade……..
We live in a world of relativity…………….all asset classes are stores of value but in different time frames, relative to one another !
I think we all have to agree that owning the US dollar has been the great trade as USD has moved up 15 percent and interest rates are now paying over 3% on the 15 year. At some time the rate hikes will end and US will top and roll over. The market will then seek out the next asset class that is entering it’s bull phase…………….will stocks be at heir lows then ? we will see ! will gold have bottomed and start gaining strength ! we will see………………….lots of noise and opinions out there and it’s all good to chew on !
I’m just watching the charts and technical aspect of them……….. like Doc and others have suggested…………..better to join a party that’s already started than trying to be the first one there waiting for someone else to show up !
Just my second cup of coffee talking back to me !!!!
That’s interesting if Doc has ever said it’s better to join the party after it’s started since he has never once identified a party even way after one has begun and was even shorting the 2016 party in early February when he should have been buying with both hands.
Nevertheless, it’s a fine approach if you can do it. In my experience, those who can’t spot a low while one is happening also can’t spot one after the fact. In this sector where big moves happen fast it is better to learn what lows look like and buy them early. Either way, you can’t get away from the need to time the market and practice risk management.
Priced in dollars or gold, Barrick bottomed 6 weeks ago and has retested that low in a bullish manner. The whole sector is similar yet the “wait and see” and “time will tell” types are silent just as they always are when an obviously low is early in its formation. Of course some aren’t silent at all as a major low is forming, they’re BEARISH (Doc is consistently one of those). Volume is always greatest at major tops because most people are incapable of buying anywhere near a major low.
Barrick vs Gold:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GOLD%3A%24GOLD&p=W&yr=3&mn=1&dy=0&id=p99744492235&a=993135589
Larry, any mention of Doc, a quote in particular, is a no no with the site guru.
He’s been at this party well over a year buying successive gold equity lows which have been consistently crushed, rather than showing any kind of expected leverage, while gold is down less than 5% in the past year. Pure genius.
And here we are once again at another deja vu all over again moment with the usual babble.
The truth matters joni even if worthless characters like yourself don’t understand why.
Easy for you to document and report back as things unfold. In the meantime I’ll sell a few puts on DUST and JDST leading up to Sept.20 rate hike, just in case and to pad my coffee account. There’s a new Starbucks opening nearby my house, bringing them to five locations within 10 minutes walking distance. There’s also about 50 Chinese run Starbucks wannabes selling coffee at half their price.
I couldn’t disagree more with you Larry them i have in the pass lol..
You are my contradirían perfect picture when it comes to fear, not sure and emotions!
There could not be a better time right now to be in folks!!! 100% I will go against his call you all can choose after who was right.
Glen
EX…EX…Could you see if one of your guests could comment about economic data manipulation….Not really like John Williams on ShadowStats….. He compares the adjusted economic stats to historical and more reflective honest accurate data…
I mean true counter fit secretly revised data…..Ala ‘1984’ Ministry of Truth……This cannot be far off anyways…..IMHO….
Seems like Jesse Felder would have thoughts on this imminent new world of fake data?…glta
Larry:
Not exactly what your looking for, but there is an interview of Chris Powell (think the second item) on the gata.org site that is with a guy that hasn’t really heard the Gata message before. Chris talks a lot of history of Government involvement in “market manipulation” over about 50 years and includes a discussion of the WWII Nazis and their using the gold/ currency manipulation schemes that are being used by the US and Western money interests.
Hi Larry – We’ve had a number of guests (like Craig Hemke, Brien Lundin, Dave Erfle, John Rubino, Dave Kranzler, and others) comment on the massaged metrics and even silliness around some of the official numbers like CPI calculations, Jobs Data calculations, Unemployment calculations, etc… Some of them also pointed out how high inflation would be if still using the old formulas from the 1970s and 1980s (like John Williams at Shadowstats does).
We have had Craig Hemke point out a few times that a handful of large banks did have certain bad actors or trading desks that were found guilty of spoofing or fined as a result of trying to influence market action over short periods of time. In addition, we’ve also had Jeff Christian on the show where he dispelled some common market narratives around some extreme manipulation claims… that are simply not backed up by any data, and so there is also that aspect to consider.
Jesse Felder did point out in a recent interview we did with him 2 times back, how trying to use the TIPS as a gauge of real rates is a fools errand and a massaged number, as it is influenced and interfered with by the Fed for about 15%-25% of the buying, creating an artificial market. It is quite easy instead to just take the 10 year interest rate at 3.32% away from the latest CPI reading of 8.3% and see that real rates are still negative -5%. So some of the misrepresented data is staring people in the face and hiding in plain sight.
OK EX….Better answer than my question deserved…I just wonder if these exact numbers are faked on this reporting platform…or are independent honest actors keeping them honest somehow….
I was referring to these endless data points provided by government and non-government sources….I was wondering if these are still calculated without interference…
Larry:
As an informed guess, the data is manufactured. This is where Matthew’s charts become important as they report history. The powers that be have a bunch of computers and trading operations that can control direction and momentum and this has been going on for an extended period of time. They can make history by intervention and let the markets interpret them traditionally. We have to trade off the charts that, in essence, are directed by the data that is “counterfeit”. Reality is not an alternative until they fail. And that is the big glitch. Timing the failure of intervention. Should we rely on the data? We have to even if we know it is false. They throw a bone once in awhile to keep retail money in the market, but the bottom line is the transfer of wealth, and that is the province of governments, central banks and the very wealthy. We do the best we can. Ex has the process pretty well defined in that you look at the charts and grab what you can when you can and don’t get married to any stock as the system is not about companies, markets or earnings but about computers owned by insiders.
Good question Larry. You are correct to be concerned about the legitimacy of many of the data points shared in economic media and by the central banks themselves, and the mechanics around how they are calculated in first place.
Yes, there is reason to be critical of how many of the economic data points are generated, and just as an example, Craig Hemke pointed out how the birth-death adjustment of new businesses based on a 20 year average has all kinds of room for a model being perpetually miscalculated and massaged, and yet that critical “Jobs Number” is seen as sacrosanct by the Fed and economists. It is their proof we are not currently already in or slipping into a recession, but the number is a ghost and a guestimate at best… not hard data.
As for the inflation number in the CPI, again, we’ve all discussed how engineered it is, how it leaves out key aspects of daily life, and how the calculations are much different than the way the figure used to be calculated to minimize how bad inflation really is (which has actually been in double digits over the last year or two).
One also has to be skeptical of the consumer confidence numbers and polls, or other such data points, as they are not strictly facts or raw data metrics.
Some of the other data that gets de-emphasized, but that is far more precise, like percentage of new home build cancelations, or home sale contract cancelations, or weekly jobless claims, or percentage of small business laying off staff, etc… paint a much different and more accurate picture of what is really happening under the hood of this economy.
Plunger outlined this scenario about a month ago, when RSI gets below 37, it triggered a buy
Oil turned up sharply vs Gold:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24WTIC%3A%24GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p58117068965&a=1108848486
Not many are paying attention but XBI is in solid shape. I’m holding small positions in HRTX, CBAY, NKTR
Let’s see if possible fork resistance around 95 puts up a fight…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XBI&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p65876604488&a=1210554448
LABU has doubled last three months.
Biotech really has been on wild ride the last 2 years.
Don’t forget your JAB……….. covidly speaking…. 🙂
Everyone is tripping and that a perfect sign to me 100%
Matthew it’s few who get it!! We are embarking on a massive move yet lol not one person sees it.. it could not be better for the long term bull.
Here is a gift and a tip to many of you. I posted a w formation for xau and hui and it is bang on yet people still think we are headed lower. Sucks I can’t post it properly but only through stockcharts. Ex or Matthew please share with me how to post it via the print I just can’t get it..
Glen
Click “Print” at the bottom left of your chart next to “Annotate”
This will bring up your chart in a new window with its own address
Copy that address and paste it here
Perfect thanks brother lol! I suck ass at this..
Let’s give it a try. Also Matthew tell me you see oil up shortly but back down again that’s what I’m seeing. Just curious
You know we have hit the bottom, when everyone is gone… ………. LOL
The Seven Year Gold Stock Bottoming Cycle
David Erfle – Friday September 9th, 2022
“There were fortunes made by contrarian speculators that began to accumulate a basket of high-risk/reward quality precious metals junior stocks, just as significantly undervalued and oversold mining space situations appeared in 2001, 2008, and 2015. This seven-year pattern of bombed-out juniors creating significant bottoms is likely in the process of taking place here again in 2022.”
https://mailchi.mp/5d8083ed3d04/david-erfle-weekly-gold-miner-sector-op-ed-1601194
I read an article in 2020 and can’t find the link( driving me nuts) Author basically outlined why $1675 is critical and probably one final time gold would trade in this region before taking off. BBs would cover their massive shorts and It’s Katy bar the door.
One can hope.
November timeline has been pushed forward to December/January before a pause imo and then up again possibly start of second quarter. The bust is the w formation I believe is happening.
Try this link of above doesn’t work
Keep up the good work gents. Will try to find time to comment more as summer has ended and hopefully I have more time.
Just wanted to point out the pop in silver mountain is all about the promo job all weekend.
GSR……………………. 87…………. vs. 95 …………
My account up 5 figures and almost walked back to red.
Yep, a nice pop in the mining stocks today for sure, along with Silver making a hefty move higher.
Many stocks are up double-digits on the day, so nice to see some green on the screen…
News out on GR Silver. Drill results look good.
I think this is the price spike that will initiate a 6-9 month consolidation. I anticipate that silver could get to $24-25 within a few weeks, which should take it just above its 600 day MA.
After that I think it will come back down and test the 200 dma and thereafter stay sandwiched between the 600 and 200 dmas until the 200 dma crosses back above the declining 400 dma. This will form a pennant or box consolidation. When price finally breaks out of this consolidation, I think sliver will move to $90 within 2 years.
Michael Boutros (30:24 Gold, Silver, Oil) – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OYLkePzrRrc
For those who follow some of the Michael Gentile stocks that’s an interesting consolidation of land by Northern Superior with the recent take out of Royal Fox.
Also Orezone has announced their first gold pour after coming in on schedule and budget with mine construction.
Orezone has been solidly delivering on their strategy for the last few years and has been much more resilient than most of the other developers as it marched forward into first pour. This is the time period that concerns me for most newly minted producers, as they typically run into teething issues, unforeseen challenges when ramping up to commercial production, and some investors sell the news as first pour is made… I’ll be looking for any of those issues and potential pullbacks to add one more tranche onto my position.
Having said that, Orezone has done such a good job all along the way from exploration, to derisking, to development, and construction, that I get the impression they may get off the mat quicker than most producers. Their success at all stages so far reminds me of Atlantic Gold when they graduated from step to step in the mining cycle on solid footing, all the way until they became a key takeover candidate and investors exited with a big win and liquidity event.
Really, it would not surprise me if a larger producer came in and scooped up Orezone as one of the best-in-class in West Africa in the not-so-distant future.
Excellent interview with M. Jayant Bhandari, especially regarding the Maritimes Resources (MAE) merge scenario with Signal Gold (SGNL). I’m a shareholder of both companies and I arrived at the same conclusion regarding the situation MAE is finding itself in. I was there when the first bid was done by SGNL, formerly Anaconda Mining (ANX), and was supportive for it. It was clearly, and still is, a win-win situation. I’ve been “promoting” this idea since that time on different bullboards. Seeing M. Bhandari using this tribune to do the same is wonderful. A merge would be beneficial to both companies by creating a mid-tier gold producer in Atlantic Canada. This is a perfect example of 1+1=3 situation!
Another great KER show. Thank you.