Erik Wetterling – Investors Are So Focused On Macro Noise, That They Are Missing Micro Opportunities

Shad Marquitz
November 10, 2022

Erik Wetterling, Founder and Editor of The Hedgeless Horseman website, joins us to discuss portfolio management, and how he is continuing to block out macro to focus instead on the company-specific micro news and developments. 


We discuss 2 different companies, Magna Mining (TSX.V: NICU) and Montage Gold (TSX.V: MAU) (OTC: MAUTF), that have made substantive and very much under-appreciated project acquisitions lately, they have low valuations relative to their resources in the ground, have executive teams that have successfully built and operated projects in the past, access to capital, and key strategic stakeholders that have vetted the projects.


*In full disclosure, some of the companies mentioned by Erik are personal positions are covered and sponsored on The Hedgeless Horseman website.   Shad has a current position in Montage Gold.


Click here to visit Erik’s site – The Hedgeless Horseman.

    Nov 10, 2022 10:15 PM

    Matthew said, ….how “done” the Dollar is right now. Also the 2X short treasury ETF(TBT) also down -7.54% today.

      Nov 10, 2022 10:26 PM

      Yep, the US dollar was up over 114.74 and now is down 7 points to 107.75. That is a big drop in the greenback, and it has really picked up pace over the last week or so, which has been solid fuel for the commodities and precious metals to blaze on higher.

      Don’t ya just wish you had “Sold everything” and “gone running to Cash” last week? 😉

      Today, my trading account was up 8.4%, and GDX was up 7.16%, GDXJ was up 7.56%, and SILJ was up 7.08%.

      Many mining stocks were up double-digits again today, just like they were on Friday, Monday, and Tuesday. The “Joe was right” posters coming on post Powell-speak the middle of last week and declaring selling everything and going to cash was the best strategy, were the perfect contrarian indicators (once again) for another solid tradable rally. Gotta love it!

        Nov 10, 2022 10:18 PM

        Great performance Ex. I got a little more than half of what you achieved. But mine was a whole lot better than usual. I am still on alternating days unless tomorrow is green.

          Nov 10, 2022 10:54 PM

          Much appreciated LakeDweller2. I am happy to hear you also had some good returns today, and really it’s been a nice run over the last week or so. Let’s see how we close tomorrow, but overall Gold, Silver, and the mining stocks have fared very well over the last week or so.

          As we noted last month it was positive that silver seemed to have bottomed before gold, because as we know, the mining stocks track silver more so than they track gold. This has been good to see for the whole sector lately.

    Nov 10, 2022 10:18 PM

    We were able to get Jason from Magna Mining on a call today, so for anyone interested in NICU that Erik was discussing in this interview, then here is a nice overview from the company managment.

    Nov 10, 2022 10:32 PM

    Does Magna have a US Symbol that actually trades?

    Nov 10, 2022 10:53 PM

    Hong Kong and Shanghai miners are up substantially Friday morning but the Aussies are kinda pathetic so far.

      Nov 10, 2022 10:57 PM

      Thanks for the heads up on the overseas trading Terry.

    Nov 10, 2022 10:19 PM

    Ex, EVGDF, Elevation Gold, you follow them? Posted positive qtrly earnings, up big today on massive volume. Another one taken to woodshed, I loadeded up on hunch higher

      Nov 10, 2022 10:56 PM

      Hey there Buzz. Yeah, I have a tiny position in Elevation Gold that I just started back up in September, but it’s up some in the green from where I purchased it. I used to be in Northern Vertex back when it was doing better, but then I was displeased with the merger with Eclipse (which made no sense to me) as it was not really a value add for their Moss mine in any way, and Hercules just didn’t impress me that much when there are so many better gold development projects out there that are much more attractive.

      Anyway, I sold some last year on that news for a gain from where I had gotten in to Northern Vertex, but the core position I held onto got decimated and was a bigger percentage loss than I had seen in most other stocks so I made it tax loss sale earlier this year. I’ve only recently decided to wade back in with an initial tranche.

      What caught my attention recently was that the guys from Featherstone Capital – Doug Forster (passively) and Doug Hurst (actively) are now more involved, and those were the guys behind Newmarket Gold (eventually acquired by Kirkland Lake), and Calibre Mining, and Newcore Gold. I like that crew and the teams they assemble to reignite projects.

      In addition, they switched out the president from Mike Allen (now with Strikepoint Gold, which is a better fit for him with his geology background) and passed that President baton over to Tim Swendseid (who has more of an operations background with other successful mines, including one for Alamos Gold).

      I still consider Elevation Gold an “Ugly Duckling” stock like Pure Gold was, and McEwen Mining and Americas Gold & Silver are, but I took a flyer on it just because I could not get over where their market cap was (around $16 Million CAD) for a producing gold mine. There are greenfields drill plays with nothing but moose pasture and a dream that have similar market caps. There are developers still years away from going into production with market caps 10-20 times larger. I know Moss isn’t a huge mine, but it takes a lot of work, capital, permitting, and time to even build a producing mine these days, and based on most of the M&A deals, we see larger producers looking to bolt on smaller producers projects. I could see a Mid-tier producer being interest in bringing Moss into their portfolio.

      > Now, I’m prepared this could still unravel (look at what just happened to Pure Gold), but it could also go up multiple fold if they can just get a little momentum going. It could be this is more like a Harte Gold or Alexco where a larger company comes in as a white knight to take over the project, or it could just go bust. Personally, I’m interested in a 3rd option where they gradually get things on track and gain a little respect back, but I’m not betting the farm on that.

      I have felt for some time, and still do, that there is plenty of room for expansion of resources around the Moss Mine, with some targeted exploration, and that is where my initial interest came from when investing in Northern Vertex, but this stock has been beaten down into oblivion. I wish they’d have used their capital to do that exploration instead of buying Eclipse Gold, but whatever… what is done is done now.

      I honestly can’t think of a gold producer that is currently more destroyed than this one, (other that Pure Gold which is not in bankruptcy credit protection, as I mentioned was a distinct possibility a few weeks back when someone asked about their potential path forward). Harte Gold was smashed down pretty bad too before they were taken over and put out of their misery. I guess, that is one potential outcome – a takeover by a larger producer that wants to bolt on the Moss Mine to their operations, and then plow some real money into exploration and expansion. Personally, I’d rather not see that at these really low levels, and would like to see Elevation Gold claw their way out of the whole they are in over the next 1-2 years and really get some traction going first.

      I’ve not really talked much about this position because I consider it so very risky, and especially after what we just saw this year in both Pure Gold and Alexco. For a while I hit a good streak of turn-around stories that worked out, but I got spanked on the last 2 I speculated on. I may add a little more to the Elevation Gold story if I see a better pattern of quarterly reports, but for now it’s just a speculative punt in my portfolio, and one of my smaller positions at present.

      I feel much better about growth oriented gold producers like Karora, Minera Alamos, I-80 Gold Corp, Steppe Gold, and was very enthusiastic about both Calibre and Mako Mining, until the recent smash down from the market over-reactions to the news about the US sanctioning Nicaragua. We’ve had both Calibre and Mako on the show to discuss how those haven’t really affected them, but the market is so skittish and sentiment is so poor, that many abandoned ship before they got all the details. I still believe Calibre and Mako will continue to execute well on production, development, and exploration like they have been, but they’ve got a much bigger hill to climb now than they did just a month or so ago. All of those companies were up nicely today though, especially Karora (which is one of my heavier weighted positions).

    Nov 11, 2022 11:56 AM

    Right on, thanks!

    Nov 11, 2022 11:03 AM

    While I don’t disagree that the big move in lithium has already been made and the so called easy money of the whole sector being pulled up regardless of the companies actual assets, I think there’s still great opportunities that exist….. it’s more a stock picker situation now and Doc Jones 2 picks are looking good…..the slow but steady climb towards a new high by Lithium Ionic as it starts releasing drill results a prime example

    Nov 11, 2022 11:28 AM

    Trend Strength:
    Possible PM Topping Today.

    Nov 11, 2022 11:13 AM

    Refreshed data:
    My Account in reference to a breakout:
    Last Friday: green
    Monday: red
    Tuesday: green
    Wednesday: red
    Thursday: green
    Today: @ 9 cst: some up, some down, some unreported: even
    Still range bound

      Nov 11, 2022 11:32 AM

      My account just turned red. Does that fit the pattern? (My pattern began in Jan 2022)

      example: yesterday Impact +7.7% Today – 6.6%

        Nov 11, 2022 11:50 AM

        Emerita alone has put me in the green. I hope that counts for a 2 day green (if it holds. i shouln’t have mentioned it in public)

          Nov 11, 2022 11:46 AM

          The boot may be off the neck of Stillwater Critical. Maybe kick back from the Climate Conference in Egypt.

            Nov 11, 2022 11:03 PM

            A nuthin burger except for Emerita. Consider the day barely green.

    Nov 11, 2022 11:50 AM

    Looks like an EV pop. My lithium stocks I sold yesterday are moving but the copper stocks I rolled it into are moving also. Anyway…watch the battery stocks at least this afternoon.

    Nov 11, 2022 11:37 AM

    Another big up day was very unlikely for GDX as it has reached the serious resistance that a steeply falling weekly Bollinger Band always provides. 13%+ for the week is still not bad:

    Nov 11, 2022 11:58 AM

    Silver and silver miners–at this point, you buy the dip. The best risk reward would be buying any test of the 50 dma (or the 10 WMA).

    While the metals could continue running higher in the very short run, I suspect we will churn around here for a few weeks. A quick drop to the 50 day in some of the miners will be bit painful IMO, but that will be buying opportunity.

      Nov 11, 2022 11:10 PM

      Thanks for sharing your technical thoughts Greenspansconscience. Yes, some churn and chop is likely in order after such a powerful move higher in the PMs, especially Silver over the last 2 weeks. If we see a bounce in the US Dollar and interest rates next week, then that may put a lid on things for a bit as a headwind. Still it’s been nice to see the recovery in the mining stocks since the end of last week to this one, and it looks like we are putting in some encouraging weekly candles in gold and silver, so all in all…. good to see all the green on the screen.

      I decided to trim back a few PM stocks where my position is nicely in the green just to raise a some more cash to deploy on pullbacks, but did add to two PM stocks today that hasn’t fared as well lately. I considered trimming back some Uranium stocks that are also in the green, but since it is a market marching to the beat of it’s own drum I’m just going to hold the 7 positions and position sizings that I have for now.

    Nov 11, 2022 11:22 PM

    There’s at best 2 handfuls or less of distinguished mining analysts Eric. Same words from Moriarty and Eric for Novo2-4 years ago

    Nov 11, 2022 11:35 PM

    SLV is up 26% versus the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index since July and is just getting started: