Erik Wetterling – Volatility Is The Only Currency To Use For Investing In Junior Mining Stocks

Shad Marquitz
December 2, 2022

Erik Wetterling, Founder and Editor of The Hedgeless Horseman website, joins us to review why some junior mining stocks are not moving despite the continued rally in gold, silver, and the precious metals producers.   We discuss that quite often the value drivers of earlier-stage explorers in the junior mining sector have little in common with the specific direction of the underlying metals price action or even whether it is a bull or bear market. 


We get into the current environment we are in here in tax loss selling season, where a junior can pop or drop by 10% or 20% on no fundamental news and even if metals are flat on the day, just because larger investors are getting into or out of positions as their rebalance their portfolios into lower volume.  Erik also pointed out that the best offense and defense for him has been consistently buying into the weakness when he felt valuations were cheap.  He clarified that a stock being cheap is not equal to the last day of selling or a bottom in a stock, so if it continues to fall it is just varying degrees of absurdity. 


As the sector gets more absurd, volatility is the only currency he uses to capitalize on market inefficiencies. He reiterated that most investors have been shooting themselves in the foot by only trying to find stocks that will no longer go down anymore, and then are stuck chasing rallies to the upside, having sacrificed many multiples of gains that could have been had if they were just comfortable with the idea that the stock could still go a bit lower after buying a cheap valuation.


*In full disclosure, some of the companies mentioned by Erik, such as (IAU) (IAUX) I-80 Gold Corp in this interview, are personal positions in his portfolio and may be covered or site sponsors on The Hedgeless Horseman website.   



Click here to visit Erik’s site – The Hedgeless Horseman

    Dec 02, 2022 02:47 PM

    Investing theory, Volatility & a look at a HODL portfolio

    Erik Wetterling – The Hedgeless Horseman – Dec 2, 2022

    Dec 02, 2022 02:08 PM

    Trend Quality:
    Monday/Tuesday PM Swing Top.
    NatGas Bottom Too.

    Dec 02, 2022 02:59 PM

    Some things go against the algos until they correct the algos. They do not want people to determine value as it may not correspond with absolute control of all managed money. Price suppression is necessary to overcome investing on fundamentals.

    Dec 04, 2022 04:06 AM

    I have been following Eric’s approach. This year I have added aggressively in September at what appeared to be a low and my portfolio YTD is down only 10% while many of my holdings are off up to 50% YTD. But what has really changed is the number of shares I own per position has risen hugely since the start of 2022. Many of my stocks are better businesses over the past 2 years as they de-risk while their stock price is off 50% or so – Discovery Silver for example. I am now building a position in GROY, off 40% since IPO with huge revenue growth coming over the next 5 years as per presentation by CEO – I need income as a Senior in next 3-5 years.

      Dec 04, 2022 04:27 PM

      Good comments Jack, on both buying into the September weakness, and also growing your position-sizing in the stocks you have higher conviction in to get a better overall cost basis.

      I’ve added a bit to my Discovery Silver position a few months back as well, after watching it correct all year long, as I see it is a one of the best optionality plays in the silver space, with over a billion ounces of silver equivalent resources in place, and the plan to focus on the higher grade core of a few hundred million ounces first for the economic plan. If silver does get back up above $30 again, the exponential revaluation of all those resources in the ground will dwarf the resources of any other silver junior, and most of the mid-tiers and majors.

      As for Gold Royalty Corp, I’ve avoided until just recently where I just started a small first tranche position, because, as you mentioned, it had also sold off so much harder than most other royalty companies, and does have a good growth profile over the next few years.

      Personally, I was not happy about them acquiring my position in (ELY) Ely Gold, as I felt that company would have much more upside torque on it’s own as a smaller company, rather than being brought into Amir’s Gold Mining royalty portfolio fold at that time (which was not that impressive). However those assets are now inside of (GROY). Then Gold Royalty Corp scooped up both (RZZ) Abitibi Royalties and my position in (GZZ) Golden Valley Mines in the next transaction, which was a good deal for GROY, but truncated the potential at both companies before Canadian Malartic got into production at the portions of the deposit that both companies had royalties on. That was a bit of a bummer, but at least GZZ got properly valued in relation to RZZ as an exit strategy. In both takeovers, with Ely Gold and Golden Valley I decided to sell my positions on the big moves on that news, rather than hold for shares in GROY, which I was not that interested in holding.

      Then the whole saga started with GROY trying to do a low-ball hostile bid takeover of Elemental Royalties, and refusing to make a better and more fair counter offer. I didn’t like the look of how that whole deal went down, and we had Fred from Elemental Royalties on the show here at the KE Report to unpack what happened, and my takeaway was that it was not the best deal for shareholders, and it was GROY trying to buy some cash-flowing royalties on the cheap to beef up their production numbers and paying royalties, since many of theirs are still longer dated. Obviously, that deal fell through and didn’t work out for GROY, which was the best thing for Elemental shareholders, and I had sold 1/2 my (ELE) on the initial news and revaluation higher of the potential hostile takeover, because I still didn’t want GROY shares at that time.

      Fast forward to this year and Gold Royalty Corp optioned one of their properties to Almaden for $16.5 million, then did a transaction with Nevada Gold Mines (Barrick/Newmont JV) on a few properties I really like — I-80 Gold’s Granite Creek project and Kinross’s Bald Mountain project. That was a good transaction and raised a few eyebrows.

      Then more recently, GROY, did a transaction with the other 2 GZZ spinout companies – (VZZ) Val-d’Or Mining Corporation to pick up 12 royalties in the Abitibi Greenstone belt of Québec and Ontario, as well as the Aussie properties from (IZZ) International Prospect Ventures. Those all used to be inside of (GZZ) Golden Valley Mines, and were spun out, but those baskets of properties were never were fully appreciated. Those are all still early stage and need to find suitable partners, but still, it was smart transaction for GROY to get NSRs on all those projects at an early stage when they are not considered valuable or being worked aggressively (yet…).

      So overall Gold Royalty Corp has done a lot of transactions to grow it’s royalty portfolio over the last 2 years, as it’s share price and market cap has continued correcting. It was far to richly valued initially, due to the marketing and promotional prowess of the team behind it, and the usual suspects they brought into the initial financings. However, over time, they have consolidated good properties with good operational partners, cannibalized a few of the smaller junior royalty companies, did some transactions with 2 largest majors in Nevada, and expanded their reach into more earlier stage exploration and development opportunities. As a result it felt like the last 2 months has been a better time to start accumulating GROY for the longer term game. I could see them being an easy double, and likely triple, in just the next 1-2 years, and they likely have more acquisitions to make. They aren’t my favorite royalty company, but they have evolved and grown into one that I’m glad to have some exposure to.

    Dec 04, 2022 04:14 AM


    He is right, but the narrative make move the market and some junior can stay low of be victim of shorts campaign. So they can stay low for a while. Only price pays.
    There are other opportunities