Ed Moya – Did We Hit Peak Positive US Economic Data And How Will This Effect The Peak Fed Funds Rate?

Shad Marquitz
February 27, 2023

Ed Moya, Chief Market Strategist at OANDA, joins us to recap the potential that we’ve seen peak positive economic data from January, which was announced in February, and how that may affect the outlook on economic growth, Fed policy, and market reactions in the US general equities, bonds, and commodities.


After recapping the recent data and how the market is positioning, we discuss what the economic health of the US and global economies really are.  We ask Ed if a further recession is still on the table for later this year, or if we are not going to get any kind of economic landing at all, and if the markets are just going to keep flying higher?  We discuss the potential for the markets to bifurcate into some sectors doing well, while others may be in contractive territory  We then wrap up with a review of the oil and natural gas space and the over health and supply demand picture in the energy sector.




Click here to visit the OANDA website to follow along with Ed’s daily note.

    Feb 27, 2023 27:31 PM

    Is the ‘Fed Put’ Kaput? Gone for Now but Not for Good.

    By Lisa Beilfuss – Barron’s – January 23, 2022

    Feb 27, 2023 27:35 PM

    Wall Street pares gains, but ends green

    Karen Brettell – Reuters Off The Wire – Monday February 27, 2023

    “Wall Street’s main indexes ended Monday higher, but gave back much of the day’s earlier gains, coming after their worst week so far this year. Investors sought out some beaten down stocks even as nerves remained about the impact of higher interest rates on the U.S. economy. The Nasdaq Composite was the strongest performer with an 0.6% increase, followed by the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average , which were up 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively. Bond markets have repriced for higher rates for longer as the Federal Reserve battles still high inflation while a still strong economy gives it room to tighten policy further. Data on Monday showed that new orders for key U.S. manufactured capital goods increased by the most in five months in January, while pending home sales, based on signed contracts, jumped 8.1% in January, the biggest gain since June 2020. Benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields eased to 3.92% on Monday, after earlier reaching a more than three-month high of 3.978%. They have jumped from a four-month low of 3.321% on Jan. 19.”

      Feb 27, 2023 27:59 PM

      I think The Fed is juicing the stock market in the hope that speculators will pay any amount for money as long as prices keep on climbing. If you look at the shares of the companies that are leading the advance they are not shares of solid and conservatively managed companies. I certainly wouldn’t put Tesla in that category and Tesla as well as the other Fang stocks are leading the charge. DT

        Feb 27, 2023 27:32 PM

        Yep, the old FAANG leadership and Tesla are still leading the charge higher, but it would be healthy for the market to break up the huge weighting into just a few high-flying mega-cap stocks, and spread it out a bit more into different sectors and reshuffle the deck a bit.

        I’m not sure the Fed was loving the most recent move higher in most markets from Oct-Jan as it flies in the face of their initiatives to squash the “wealth effect” as well as future buying demand. However, they are also more emboldened to keep hiking rates with the markets having levitated back higher for a few months, and up until now, nothing really breaking in the economy.

    Feb 27, 2023 27:25 PM

    Wall St Gets Respite From Positive Data, Dollar Pullback

    Lawrence Delevingne and Amanda Cooper – Reuters – Feb 27, 2023

    “Wall Street and global shares rebounded modestly on Monday on favorable economic data and bargain hunting, but remained within sight of recent six-week lows, as investors prepared for higher interest rates in the United States and Europe.”

    “U.S. core capital goods orders accelerated in January, beating forecasts, according to government figures released on Monday, and contracts to buy previously owned U.S. homes rose the most in more than 2-1/2 years in January.”

    At the same time, Federal Reserve Governor Philip Jefferson said on Monday he was under “no illusion” that inflation would return quickly to the Fed’s target, with the cost of a broad array of services in the United States still “stubbornly high.”

    Feb 27, 2023 27:07 PM

    First NatGas retracement soon?
    Possible PM bottom.

      Feb 28, 2023 28:01 AM

      Likely NatGas pull back for a few days.

        Feb 28, 2023 28:02 AM


          Feb 28, 2023 28:35 AM

          Wrong! Main long trend continues.
          No significant pull back yet.

            Feb 28, 2023 28:37 PM

            That one could be a Gartley ‘Golden C’.
            If so, then back up the Mack!

            Feb 28, 2023 28:37 PM

            Saturated bearish engulfment on FCG!