John Rubino – Resource Stock Investing Trends For Oil, Nat Gas, Gold, Uranium, and Copper
John Rubino, Founder of the Dollar Collapse website and editor of his recently launched newsletter over at Substack, joins us to discuss resource stock investing trends in various commodities like oil, nat gas, gold, uranium, and copper. We start off with some of the macro drivers in the oil patch, and the recent OPEC+ production cuts which as buoyed crude prices back above $80 again. In contrast, natural gas is still down at very low levels, but John postulates that companies with more exposure to it may represent a contrarian buying opportunity as the rising oil prices may lift many stocks across the sector in sympathy.
With Gold there are a number of macro factors we discuss that are underpinning value in the precious metals, and John lays out the conditions we want to see for the PM mining stocks to get more of a bid. Wrapping up, we look at what commodities may still do well in the face of an overall slowing global economy, but counterbalanced with supply/demand factors. John points to underlying macro currents in both uranium and copper as areas of growth that may run higher, regardless of any economic contraction, and thinks there is still opportunity in the related mining stocks.
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OPEC+ Panel Makes New Oil Production Cuts Official
By Tsvetana Paraskova – OilPrice.com – Apr 03, 2023
“OPEC claimed the measure was precautionary and designed to ensure stability in oil markets.”
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/OPEC-Panel-Makes-New-Oil-Production-Cuts-Official.html
But as it happened, destiny has other plans, and it doesn’t include Pax Americana, what we are witnessing is the dismemberment of The American Empire and the petrodollar. Saudia Arabia and the gulf states are going their own way. DT
Yep, we knew this trend has been in motion for a while now…. the circumvention and death of the US PetroDollar.
India Abandons US Dollar In Trade Deal With Malaysia
By Paul Aubert – April 1, 2023
“Trade between India and Malaysia is now able to be settled with Indian Rupees, the India Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) announced in a statement Saturday.”
This move strikes a blow to the hegemony US dollar. “This initiative by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is aimed at facilitating the growth of global trade and to support the interests of the global trading community in Indian Rupees (INR),” the statement from the MEA reads.
https://trendingpoliticsnews.com/india-abandons-us-dollar-in-trade-deal-with-malaysia-paub/
Has been going on for half a century, since the Oil Embargo of 1974.
Cory, “…the US was fracking everything…”, hahaha!!!;-D
Great job guys!
+1
Impact Silver Closes Acquisition of the High-Grade Plomosas Zinc-Lead-Silver Mine, Mexico
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/impact-silver-closes-acquisition-high-215700514.html
Fred Davidson of IPT talks about the acquisition.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ffGwbE1BRUs
Thanks guys for the Impact Silver updates. It’s a big position of mine, and I’ve been following along with the acquisition a little bit, but not done as much homework and research on it as I probably should have. There has been an onslaught of news from so many companies as well as macro news, that I’ve not really had time to fully consider the IPT acquisition of the Plomosas mine quite yet.
Nice wide ranging interview. It almost feels like the stagflation trade might be back on. That tech over energy may have put in a local top.
If oil prices hold this gap up, then I expect the energy companies to do well and the bottoming out of breadth to have completed. I was buying Canadian heavy crude producers under $70 oil. I rarely bottom feed like that, but the risk-reward made it worthwhile. I plan on adding to some if they hold and go higher. Baytex hasn’t even completed the failed breakdown yet (hoping that’s what it is) a couple closes over 5.50 and I’ll likely double my position.
BTE chart:
https://schrts.co/eYuwYIQn
Taking signals from RSI and momentum indicators doesn’t always work after a big drop as every bounce triggers them before headed lower, but this looks like it took it’s time to make a flush out base before gapping up. Back above the 20 day EMA. Not quite in the area to confirm a failed breakdown (my 100% favorite chart pattern to buy in the natural resource space). I admit to having bought early on this and taken a big risk and still think it could roll over and I’ll have to try to get out at break even or better, but if we get follow through, I’ll be very happy.
MEG though has been a rock star this whole time. I think it’ll continue to be a relative outperformer. A breakout or a pullback that holds over 21 will both have me buying more.
https://schrts.co/RUZIDXGC
Cenovus CVE just keeps chugging along, sort of between the two. It had a failed breakdown. Hopefully it confirms a hold over the 200 day. If oil holds at $70 a barrel, this thing should return 10-14% in a combination of base dividend, buybacks and bonus dividends. MEG is better if you want no dividend and pure buybacks.
https://schrts.co/EyyRggZR
As for breadth
Bullish Percent Index:
https://schrts.co/cbDHvjig
I really want to see this get up over 75 and spend a while in the top half of the chart.
Silver Cross Index (more all-or-nothing and slower to respond, I use it as a confirmation signal more than anything else):
https://schrts.co/rPiKjvxv
If we are going to have a run in energy stocks, it’s early despite the gap up. It’s going to take some time before moving averages start to cross and a period of out performance brings back in the money that goes with relative momentum.
Good comments and links DL, and congratulations on picking up some energy stocks on the recent pullback. I had my finger over the buy button when Oil briefly dipped down into the mid $60s, but hesitated, waiting to see lower prices.
As the saying goes… “He who hesitates is lost.”
Well done on taking action on a strong conviction trade.
I anchored the trades by looking left on a weekly chart. Oil approach a key level and I entered the companies with the plan to take a loss and get out at a close of oil under 65. If my thesis is that it’s the bottom and it goes lower I am clearly wrong and my reason for getting in is no longer valid. I’d try again at the next area of support or wait for a base to form. I think over the years I’ve paid a lot of tuition in holding continually declining stocks to learn to not do that.
http://www.wallstreetonparade.com
Manipulation of metals markets. First article.
http://www.wallstreetonparade.com
First article about JPM.
(This is duplicate as other probably had wrong address on again)
Thanks for the post Lakedweller2.
There have likely been many other similar metals spoofing incidents that didn’t get caught or fined. Everybody has known JP Morgan has been acting criminally for a long time.
Here is a direct link to the article in case Wall Street on Parade switching up the their front-facing article.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________
After Being Criminally Charged for Rigging Precious Metals, JPMorgan Chase Controls 53 Percent of All Precious Metals Contracts Held by Banks
By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: April 3, 2023 ~
First Nations Lay Claim To All Critical Minerals And Rare Earth Elements In Saskatchewan
Will McLernon – CBC News – March 30, 2023
First Nations are laying claim to all critical minerals and rare earth elements in Saskatchewan in light of the province announcing its new critical mineral strategy on Monday.
Saskatchewan has 23 of 31 critical minerals on the Canadian Critical Minerals List. The government’s strategy aims to increase Saskatchewan’s share of Canadian mineral exploration spending to 15 per cent and double critical minerals being produced by 2030. It also intends to grow Saskatchewan’s production of potash, uranium and helium in addition to establishing the province as a rare earth mineral hub.
The Federation of Sovereign Indigenous Nations (FSIN), which represents 73 First Nations in Saskatchewan, says the critical mineral strategy infringes on inherent and treaty rights.
“At treaty, we agreed for the settlers — in order to have agriculture — to share a plough deep,” Heather Bear, the federation’s vice-chief Heather Bear said.
“The minerals were never on the table.”
Now that could be a major wrench in the gears for Saskatchewan for a number of commodities and a big impediment to mining companies operating there.
While many love to boast about North America (Canada and US) being a Tier 1 jurisdiction, there are still many risks. If the First Nations get their way, it could shut down potash and uranium (the infamous Athabasca Basin is there which is where 90% of the Canadian uranium stocks are based).
Wild….
(IAU) (IAUX) i-80 Gold: Hilltop Shaping Up To Be A Company-Maker
Taylor Dart on 31 Mar 2023
https://ceo.ca/@taylordart/i-80-gold-hilltop-shaping-up-to-be-a-company-maker-iau
The re-rating rally back higher again in Calibre Mining (CXB) has been quite impressive over the last few months.
It went from a low $0.52 in late October, to close today at $1.43. That’s almost a 3 bagger in just the last 5 months (when many had left it for dead concerned the sky was falling based on the way the media reported the potential impacts from the US sanctions on Nicaragua).
It may be getting a bit overcooked in the short-term here, but the force has been strong with this one…
>> CXB Chart:
(GSVR) Guanajuato Silver has been another smaller producer that has really been ripping higher lately.
It did a double-bottom of sorts last year in July @ $0.27 and then again in September @ $0.29.
GSVR closed at $0.60 today for more than a double off it’s lows from last year thus far.
Personally, I didn’t catch all of that move, and bought Guanajuato in several tranches, but I’m still up about 81% in it from last year to present, so it may good to shave just a bit of profits off for safe keeping.
Best Bullish Setup for Gold, Silver and Miners Ever says Analyst Michael Oliver
Mining Stock Education – Mar 31, 2023
“Analyst Michael Oliver believes we are seeing a tectonic financial plate shift that is resulting in the best bullish setup for gold, silver and the miners possibly ever. ‘Events are moving quickly’ he says that will dramatically benefit gold, silver and the precious metals miners. Michael also reveals he is bullish on grains while providing commentary on the general equities, USD and commodities.”
0:00 Introduction
0:57 Bullish gold, silver & miners
5:00 Answering skeptics re: gold/silver bull call
8:29 “We don’t need a central bank” movement next 2-3yrs
12:10 No historical financial precedent for 2023 setup
16:37 Where to invest now?
19:43 Bullish grains & grain-related stocks
20:48 Oil & gas
21:45 Fertilizers
23:33 Coffee
WOW! Gold is now up $26.80, to 2011.16, but silver is really on a tear up 63 cents to $24.58. DT
You all gonna be rich !!
Ex gonna be mo rich !!
Ex might be too diversified for that “mo” honor.
Please excuse my being too specific.
“Many here gonna be mo rich!!”
(Joe the ‘Tell’ probably not.)
Gold could again be used as the benchmark for world trade, weighed against a basket of commodities, with something like a $3000 target zone (viewed from current possibilities). It may be a balance between financial usage and physical constraints, once the second reserve currency basis is firmly established.
Yes, probably not Joe or the rest of the clown posse.
I’ll guess I’m fine with just being rich with everyone else versus the honor of “mo rich”. 😉
Thanks for the kind words though BDC.
Diversification also saved me from not being “mo poor” over the last few years, so it’s a 2-way street.
My portfolio is still regularly outperforming the diversified sector ETFs, so I’m happy with the stocks and weightings in my portfolio.
Everyone has different risk tolerance levels, strategies, and investing horizons, and I’m just not into the high-risk plop into 5 risky juniors style of investing. Sure that strategy can win bigly and outperform (if you pick some that really end up moving and with some luck), and it can likewise crash bigly and severely underperform (if they run into challenges or headwinds). I hold some earlier stage juniors like that, but like diversifying into the mid-tier and smaller producers that will get instant leverage to higher metals prices, to diversified royalty companies without the single company risk, and the developers & advanced explorers with known resources/economic studies in place. Different strokes for different folks.
Wishing everyone good trading and prosperity, whichever way they choose to invest.
It’s a two way street for those who don’t actively manage their money but less so for those who do. For example, after the gold space topped in 2020 I loaded up on XOP, OIH, several pipeline plays and a few fertilizer plays. I was done buying by the first week of November 2020 and all performed spectacularly from there, beyond my expectations in fact. Even before they moved those positions were far larger than my gold/silver miner positions. Currently the gold/silver space is the place to focus as it will far outperform commodities in general from here.
Commodities are not on the same bullish footing as gold and silver but their day will come again eventually.
URA for example:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=URA&p=W&yr=3&mn=3&dy=0&id=p70470418401&a=1380673974
Depending on the method used, URA has P&F price objectives from $14 to as low as $10 but more importantly it has technical work to do that will take time.
Yeah, I agree that the PMs are the place to be at present and have noted a number of times previously that my trading portfolio is roughly 80% PMs, and 20% other commodities (with Uranium stocks being about 13% of that and the other 7% being base metals / battery metals — Copper, Nickel, PGMs, etc…). I was previously in a lot more weighting in copper, nickel/pgms, oil & nat gas, lithium, uranium, etc… in years past but trimmed a lot of those back in 2021 and some in 2022, when they had their respective rallies, to put more emphasis on gold and silver stocks.
Within that current 80% of the PMs in my portfolio that I’ve grown over the last 12-18 months with much more focus, the portfolio diversification in stage of mining company has also served me well, and what I was mainly talking about in the prior comments.
Royalty companies and producers in general have held up better on downturns than the smaller drill plays, and those are the companies we regularly see moving first on upturns and rallies in the metals prices and sector. The easiest and safest gains are typically in those companies on upturns, but over time they will get overshadowed by the tinier juniors as the bull market really gets moving. However, they are more defensive in nature on sector corrective periods, and hence the 2-way street point.
In contrast, keeping a smaller portfolio weightings to the junior developers/advanced explorers, and riskier smaller discovery drill-plays, minimized potential losses over corrective periods the last few years, where as other investors I speak with that were piled all into a basket of explorers, suffered far worse draw downs of 50%-90% over the last few years in their positions and portfolios.
I often asked these people that write to me privately from here at the KER or over at ceo.ca about their portfolio break down, and which royalty company positions, or mid-tier producers, or small-producers, that they hold. Quite often, (and this is stunning) they didn’t have ANY diversification into those stage of companies, and thus suffered far worse since mid-2020, because of only holding small portfolios way too concentrated in the tinier riskier side of the sector.
Now, conversely, in this current more bullish environment, I anticipate an increase in size and relevance of the tiniest microcappers when they really start to outperform to the upside. Personally, I’ll gradually actively rotate profits from some of the more established companies as they keep surging, to more of the more speculative names as the sector heats up.
That was more what I was getting at in managing an active portfolio in harmony with diversification.
And, Matthew, that’s why some of us would enthusiastically sign up for your investment portfolio services… of course, at a heavily preferred Ker family rate. 😉
Gold Target Range: 2029-2084
(BullionVault spot)
There were a lot of top-callers as the picture perfect pennant formed in gold…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p08715667628&a=1382601865
Big breakout for silver (chart will update later):
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=W&yr=3&mn=3&dy=0&id=p80738063682&a=1375215216
XAU:CRB has been rising since last summer:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XAU%3A%24CRB&p=M&yr=25&mn=11&dy=0&id=t5097887131c&a=1243647013&r=1680621720689&cmd=print
oops……………….GOLD ….at 2022 ……… looking good….
Gotta wonder whether news coming out later today after Trump’s arraignment will have an effect on the price…
Getting close to that level where all the cash is king boys say they’ve been buying over the last 2 weeks.
I have a message for them…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FWBUl7oT9sA
+1 Wolfster. Yep… never fails.
Again, the time to have been deploying cash was last year in the silly valuations in the summer and early fall. The PM sector has been moving steadily higher since Sept of last year for a 6 month run now in many stocks off their bottoms, with many up 50%-200%+ and now people suddenly will have claimed they’ve deployed their cash recently. There is still a long journey higher in the PMs, but we just saw some of the easiest gains made.
Like usual, most investors are not really contrarians at all, or value investors… they are trend-following momentum investors with recency bias. Real contrarians and value investors were deploying cash in July – October of last year. People jumping in now, when things are starting to get short-term overbought are the proverbial herd running to chase the latest shiny object.
Oil Prices Soar As OPEC+ Shocks The Market
By Irina Slav – OilPrice.com – Apr 03, 2023
– On Sunday, OPEC+ announced a surprise production cut of some 1.66 million barrels per day, increasing the total OPEC+ cut to 3.66 million bpd.
– Oil prices soared on the news, climbing by 8% initially before falling back slightly.
– The U.S. criticized the move, saying that it wasn’t wise to make cuts given the current market uncertainty.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Prices-Soar-As-OPEC-Shocks-The-Market.html