Craig Hemke – What Macro Market Developments Could Change The Weak Action In Precious Metals?

Craig Hemke, Founder and Editor of TF Metals Report, joins us to review the continued weakness in the precious metals sector and some of the macro events on tap that could move the needle in the markets. It’s a wide ranging discussion on which economic data could alter Fed policy expectations, and considering the recent strength in the general US equities as a distraction away from safe havens.  Ultimately a move higher in silver will be key for improving sector sentiment in the PM mining stocks, as the GDX and GDXJ are much more closely correlated to it than to gold price action.  Craig is watching to see how the US dollar behaves, along with how the PCE inflation data and jobs report numbers come in over the weeks to come.




Click here to visit Craig’s site- TF Metals Report.

    Jun 22, 2023 22:09 PM

    Here was the article I referenced in the interview (where comically, I didn’t realize it was Craig who had authored it, as I didn’t see it listed on the link someone shared from Zero Hedge). That caught me off-guard when he said he was the one who wrote it and we laughed about that after the call.


    COMEX Silver and the GDX

      Jun 22, 2023 22:00 PM

      I have often said………… zero hedge …….. copies people on the ker…. lol…….

      Reminds me of ……… lost (loss) leaders , in a grocery store… lol

        Jun 22, 2023 22:46 PM

        Yep OOTB, we’ve been ahead of the curve here at the KER for many many years…


      Jun 22, 2023 22:43 PM

      When I heard Craig claim the article, my first thought was he was just pulling your chain. Then I knew he wrote for Sprott so he might be the author. … Funny moment. Great stuff.

        Jun 22, 2023 22:44 PM

        Yeah, Craig does write for Sprott Money, and if you go directly to their website you can see that he is the author of that article. He just wasn’t listed on the Zero Hedge link to it, so it blindsided me in a funny way when I realized I was unpacking his article to him, and he was like “yeah that author sounds like a genius..” Haha!

    Jun 22, 2023 22:13 PM

    Precious Metals Investor Sentiment Deteriorates As Sweet Silver Setup Ripens

    by @Goldfinger on 22 Jun 2023

    “Specifically, silver is incredibly susceptible to the volatile moods of investors. Despite gold maintaining a roughly 5% gain for the year to date, the so-called ‘poor man’s gold’ has unfortunately found itself deeply in the red for 2023, with a decline of 7%”

    “Silver is testing its rising 200-day moving average, with major support at $22.00 just below. The $22.00 level has proven to be major support/resistance on numerous occasions in the last several years, and I anticipate it won’t be different this time.”

    “As would be expected following such a drastic reversal of fortune for gold and silver in recent weeks, investor sentiment towards these metals has deteriorated dramatically. According to the Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index (HGNSI), the consensus among precious metals newsletters is to currently recommend shorting gold and silver. Furthermore, as of Wednesday’s market close, the Daily Sentiment Index (DSI) for silver reached a reading of 12.”

    >> Historically, it has been a very good time to buy gold and silver when the following conditions line up simultaneously:

    – DSI reaches single digits
    – The HGNSI is showing that newsletter writers are net short
    – The silver price is testing a major technical support level

    Jun 22, 2023 22:58 PM

    Another………………. FREAKY FRIDAY………………….. upon us……………….

    What will Biden screw up over the week end…. congress is lost… and has been for decades…

    Jun 22, 2023 22:03 PM

    It looks like gold wants to head down to about $1850-$1875 before it gets some much needed support.

      Jun 22, 2023 22:41 PM

      That’s sure where a number of moving averages are coalescing.

        Jun 23, 2023 23:38 AM

        Goldfinger interviewed Bob M about one week ago and Bob M mentioned The DSI for Gold and Silver was very low and he expected a turn this week. Bob M has been very accurate in his calls. This could be the day The Fat Lady Sings. DT

          Jun 23, 2023 23:58 AM

          As Goldfinger noted in the editorial linked above, the PMs daily sentiment index is getting much lower now (with Silver at a DSI of 12). If that gets into single digits soon, then typically it denotes an area where we could see a sentiment wash coupled with a sharp turn back higher again after that.

          The concern would be that we see a relief rally, followed by more sideways to down summer slogging for the next few months. Without a key catalyst on the table for a push into gold silver, and with so many generalist investors piling back into the US equity markets and cryptos, thinking a new bull is on tap, then I’m not seeing the impetus for a big sustained move higher in the PMs at this point.

          Things can pivot quickly though if we see something else break in the economy. Look at how quickly things shifted from a dismal February and early March to a sharp move higher for the balance of March and April and early May, (once the banking crisis reared it’s head). Nobody was anticipating that kind of move in the low sentiment environment in the prior weeks leading up to that blast higher.

    Jun 23, 2023 23:52 AM

    This is good news, STILLWATER ANNOUNCES STRATEGIC INVESTMENT BY GLENCORE OF 9.99%, it also means that Sibanye has a competitor and a serious one. If you snooze you loose, Sibanye should have taken out PGE but now they lost out and PGE is sitting in The Catbirds seat. The trade halt is over let the games begin. This stock has suffered enough now it is Stillwater Critical Metals chance to shine. DT

      Jun 23, 2023 23:04 AM

      That is good news for Stillwater Critical Minerals, and I was hoping the news halt was to bring in a new strategic investor. Nice!

      As you point out DT, now Sibanye has a challenging competitor in Glencore, that knows smelting polymetallic deposits like these better than most of the big boys. This just got more interesting in Montana…

        Jun 23, 2023 23:08 AM

        HEEEEY Ex, I hope you can get their CEO on for an interview sooooooooon, man. I am hyped! DT

          Jun 23, 2023 23:45 AM

          Yes indeed… working on that.

            Jun 23, 2023 23:44 AM

            It’s up 15% on the news so far… nice to see good news getting rewarded for a change.

        Jun 23, 2023 23:38 AM

        On June 1st Metallic announced that Newcrest bought in at $6.3 million or 9.5% of the company. Metallic was down over 10 % today, so I added a few. I also added a few American Eagle, First Tellurium and Firefox. Stocks taken down like every other day in the same fashion and same amount. Intervention all the way and No, I don’t want to wait until next year whatever the reason.

          Jun 24, 2023 24:02 PM

          Yep, I’m thinking about adding some more to my Metallic Minerals position soon because, even before the pullback it was way undervalued for just the Keno asset. not to mention the large copper resource at La Plata in zcolorado or the alluvial gold royalties potential in the Klondike which they are getting no credit for st present.

    Jun 23, 2023 23:04 AM

    The Fat Lady is warbling this morning! LOL! DT

    Jun 23, 2023 23:53 AM

    Cam Currie – There’s Significant Developments Happening in Gold and No One is Paying Attention:

    The Jay Martin Show – Jun 18, 2023

    “Senior Investment Advisor at Canaccord Genuity Cam Currie thinks no one is paying attention to several major developments in the gold sector that paint an extremely bullish picture for the future of precious metals. Cam discusses the disconnect between the gold market and the prevailing narratives, the expansion of the BRICS nations, the effects of the Fed rapidly raising interest rates, and much more.”

    00:00 Introduction
    01:46 Gold Market Vs. Narrative
    04:14 Gambling on U.S. Equities
    06:04 Long-Term Gold Outlook
    08:18 Expansion of BRICS
    12:00 Institutional Investment in Gold
    15:04 What’s Missing From the Narrative?
    16:22 Effects of Rapid Rise in Interest Rates
    18:13 How Should Investors Approach the Sector?
    22:05 Gold Surfacing in the Mainstream
    25:39 Gold and Risk Aversion
    27:32 ETFs and Index Investing
    30:10 How Cam Values Companies
    32:02 Geopolitical Risk
    34:53: M&A Activity

    Jun 23, 2023 23:32 AM

    weekly /ES w NO swing high…still allows for one more push higher to my 4545 ABC up pink targ zone…we will see……………………………..

    Jun 23, 2023 23:48 AM

    Decline in the sentiment index for miners could be directly related to intervention by Managed Money. (Chicken or Egg)
    Also this AM, the Governor of Pennsylvania announced that after numerous studies, he was removing the State Pensions from management by the Wall Street banks to passive management by Vanguard. He said there is significantly more risk proven by studies when Wall Street handles pension monies. He indicated that the people of Pennsylvania can not afford to go against the proof. He recognized his view was not popular on CNBS, but the studies support the State’s and other States moving their accounts away from Wall Street.
    Now there is State that is waking up.

    Jun 23, 2023 23:20 PM
    Jun 23, 2023 23:50 PM

    New MACD sell signal for the Nasdaq but it still remains above the more useful KAMA which it last closed below in April.