Craig Hemke – Parsing The COT Data, Gold Majors Earnings, Value Vs Growth, Sector Sentiment, And Macroeconomic Movers
Craig Hemke, Founder and Editor of TF Metals Report, joins us for a wide-ranging discussing, following up on some of the silver COT Report data we parsed last week in relation to the price action, the earnings from gold major producers, market trends in value versus growth, sector sentiment on valuations versus margins, and the macroeconomic movers he has his eyes on moving forward.
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I think you can put a fork in this index IMO… If 80% of the businesses are zombies then the odds are for failure.
I have to disagree. The good, bad and the ugly will fly again. The herd has never cared one bit about valuation, it sells what’s falling and buys what’s rising. So it is currently continuing to pile into a massive stock bubble while avoiding everything else. While that herd behavior may not change soon smart money behavior will and we’re already seeing it if you look closely at the right things. My guess is that the gold space will begin its next move up well before a rate cut and even before a top in stocks becomes obvious.
I appreciate the input, I am playing this chart to have a test towards the Nov lows. The AD line is low and pulling it lower for a bit maybe.
I can’t say that it won’t go down there but it does look unlikely in the short term.
Nice bull hammer from SILJ today after it tested the matching lows of Feb 13 and Nov 10 (exceeding them by 2 cents):
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p68881227056&a=1612313124
I just noticed something on this chart… isn’t the current setup almost the same as late Feb 23 exactly one year ago. Maybe we get a rush up to the upper channel line then a mini collapse back to the center line then the real move.
BTW, the retrace down may only go to the 550 mark, all in my opinion only.
In Canada the talk is becoming when we lower rates because of the high mortgage rates are solely the cause of inflation being above our targeted 2% rate. We are pulling in up to a half a million “extra” people per year through education opportunities and not asking if they will be staying or going back home when they are done… presto… liberal voters and Jew hating terrorists welcome and we will throw money at the housing crisis just before we call an election. I have heard estimates that we will be short millions of homes by 2030… sitting governments always need a good crisis. If that doesn’t work at least the coffers will be empty for the next government party in power, then the complaints from the liberals will be we are not spending enough!
Yes the setup is similar to one year ago and it could easily follow the path you described. However, due to silver’s big-picture setup I think the path will be a bit different and more bullish.
As for inflation, Milton Friedman famously said: “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon, in the sense that it is and can be produced only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output.” Mises said: “In order for an economy to experience a general rise in prices, there must be an increase in the money stock. With more money and no change in money demand, people can now allocate a greater amount of money for all goods and services. From this we can conclude that inflation is a general increase in the money supply.” Note that an increase in the money supply includes an increase in credit.
In short, rising prices, including the rising price of capital (rising interest rates) ultimately comes from inflation of the money supply.
The last line says it all for Canada, our deficit is soaring now also, Billions$ for interest cost alone.
And Canada has a lot of company!
GDX essentially filled its 2/15 gap yesterday but perfectly completed the job today as it reversed precisely at its 2/14 close.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p53752161530
Aside from gold silver has been the strongest in the space lately and remains so. It didn’t get close to its 2/14 close and SLV’s 2/15 gap is far from filled.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p83282134209
Looks like Paladin(PALAF) dropped through the 50 today.