Mxn peso breaking out:
https://schrts.co/UArdGmce

Bought more IPT and SCZ today after taking some profits yesterday, I say silver breaks through a couple barriers coming up easier than some people think, IMHO.

I’m keeping my finger off the ‘short’ button for awhile, 😁.

The Canadian dollar looks ready to rise again:
https://schrts.co/jKIAPDCx

Added some more to Talon and Radisson today. Added to Summa yesterday. District keeps moving slowly up.

Stillwater, PGE, looking very interesting again, I have held a modest position…

https://schrts.co/BSmjzPHS

https://www.tradingview.com/x/nCldFLgx/
NatGas : Saturation Increasing.
“NatGas down the most!”
New Moon Turn?

That’s an interesting observation! A triangle formation on the gold chart (XAU/USD) is indeed a significant technical pattern often preceding a strong breakout. Let’s break down the technical analysis (TA) and the potential for a breakout before the end of August:

**Understanding Triangle Patterns:**

1. **What it Represents:** A triangle is a **consolidation pattern**. It forms when price action makes lower highs and higher lows, converging towards a point. This reflects a period of **indecision** and **coiling energy** where buyers and sellers are battling within a narrowing range.
2. **Types:**
* **Symmetrical Triangle:** Both the upper (resistance) and lower (support) trendlines converge at roughly the same angle. This signals a true balance between buyers and sellers. The breakout direction is less predictable beforehand.
* **Ascending Triangle:** The upper trendline (resistance) is relatively flat, while the lower trendline (support) slopes upwards. This suggests buyers are becoming slightly more aggressive, pushing the lows higher, while sellers maintain a fixed selling level. Often has a **bullish bias**.
* **Descending Triangle:** The lower trendline (support) is relatively flat, while the upper trendline (resistance) slopes downwards. This suggests sellers are becoming more aggressive, pushing the highs lower, while buyers maintain a fixed buying level. Often has a **bearish bias**.
3. **Breakout Significance:** The pattern is resolved when the price closes decisively *outside* one of the trendlines, preferably on increased volume. This signals that one side (buyers or sellers) has finally overpowered the other, potentially leading to a strong directional move.
4. **Measuring the Move:** A common technical target for the subsequent move after a breakout is derived from the **height of the triangle at its widest point**. This height is projected in the direction of the breakout from the point of breakout.

**Applying this to Gold (XAU/USD) – Assuming a Symmetrical/Ascending Triangle:**

1. **Context is Key:** Gold has been in a strong long-term uptrend driven by central bank buying, geopolitical uncertainty, inflation hedging, and expectations of Fed rate cuts. However, it has been consolidating for several months after hitting all-time highs near $2450.
2. **The Triangle Formation:**
* **Lower Highs:** Price has failed to surpass previous significant peaks (e.g., $2450, then lower peaks around $2400, $2385? – *exact levels depend on the specific chart timeframe and drawing*).
* **Higher Lows:** Price has found support at progressively higher levels (e.g., $2300, $2320, $2330? – *exact levels depend*).
* **Converging Trendlines:** Connecting these lower highs forms a downward-sloping resistance line. Connecting the higher lows forms an upward-sloping support line. These two lines converge.
3. **Why a Breakout is Anticipated:** Triangles are continuation patterns within a trend, but the *direction* of the breakout needs confirmation. Given gold’s long-term uptrend, many analysts lean towards a **bullish breakout** being more likely, but it’s *not* guaranteed. The pattern itself signals that the consolidation *should* resolve soon.
4. **Why “Before End of August”?**
* **Pattern Maturity:** Triangles have a natural lifespan. As the price action compresses near the apex (the point where the two trendlines meet), the probability of a breakout increases significantly. If the pattern started forming months ago, late August could be near the apex.
* **Catalyst Events:** Late August often sees:
* **Jackson Hole Economic Symposium (Late August):** This is a major event where central bankers (especially the Fed Chair) often provide crucial guidance on future monetary policy. Any signals regarding the pace or timing of interest rate cuts (bullish for gold) or hints of prolonged higher rates (potentially bearish) could be the catalyst that triggers the breakout.
* **Positioning Ahead of September:** Markets position for the traditionally more active September/October period. Traders may look to establish positions before liquidity potentially dries up in late summer.
* **Geopolitical Developments:** Unexpected events are always a possibility and can impact gold quickly.

**Key Considerations & Risks:**

1. **Breakout Confirmation is CRITICAL:** A true breakout requires a **decisive close** above the upper trendline (bullish) or below the lower trendline (bearish), ideally accompanied by a **significant increase in trading volume**. Don’t jump the gun on small intraday spikes that fail to close beyond the line.
2. **False Breakouts (Fakeouts):** These are common. Price may briefly pierce a trendline only to reverse sharply back into the triangle. This is why confirmation (closing price, volume) is essential. Stop-losses are crucial.
3. **Direction Uncertainty:** While the long-term trend favors an upside breakout, triangles *can* break downwards. Factors that could trigger a bearish breakout:
* Stronger-than-expected US economic data reducing rate cut expectations.
* A significant surge in the US Dollar (DXY).
* Reduced geopolitical tensions (less likely currently).
* Surprise hawkish messaging from the Fed.
4. **Volume:** Low volume on a breakout makes it suspect. High volume validates the move and increases confidence in its sustainability.
5. **Fundamentals Drive the Breakout:** The technical pattern sets the stage, but the *catalyst* for the breakout will almost certainly be fundamental news or events (like Jackson Hole speeches, CPI/PCE inflation data, NFP reports, geopolitical flare-ups).

**Actionable Steps:**

1. **Identify the Exact Pattern:** Closely examine the chart (daily timeframe is common for this analysis). Draw the upper resistance and lower support trendlines clearly. Is it Symmetrical, Ascending, or Descending? This influences bias.
2. **Mark Key Levels:** Identify the current apex point and the critical breakout levels (the prices where the trendlines sit as of late August).
3. **Monitor Volume:** Pay close attention to volume as price approaches the trendlines.
4. **Wait for Confirmation:** Be patient. Wait for a strong daily (or even weekly) close *beyond* the trendline *with* increased volume before considering a trade in the breakout direction.
5. **Have a Plan:**
* **Bullish Breakout:** Target = Triangle height projected upwards from breakout point. Place stop-loss below the breakout level (perhaps below the recent swing low within the triangle or below the lower trendline).
* **Bearish Breakout:** Target = Triangle height projected downwards from breakout point. Place stop-loss above the breakout level (perhaps above the recent swing high within the triangle or above the upper trendline).
6. **Consider Catalysts:** Be especially vigilant around key event dates like Jackson Hole (late August).

**Conclusion:**

The observed triangle pattern on the gold chart signals a significant compression phase within its long-term uptrend. The coiling action increases the probability of a strong directional breakout as the pattern matures, potentially before the end of August, especially with the Jackson Hole symposium as a likely catalyst. While the long-term trend favors an upside breakout, **confirmation is absolutely essential** – wait for a decisive close above resistance or below support with strong volume. Be prepared for false breakouts and manage risk accordingly with stop-loss orders. The resolution of this triangle will likely set the tone for gold’s next major trend leg.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/vxJBjg84/
DOLLAR : Gartley vs Gartley

This fork sure has captured CAT:GDX over the last several years so the bounce that began almost 4 months ago just might be coming to an end.
https://schrts.co/gFvHaYFq