KER Market QuickTake: Is This a Top or a Buying Opportunity in Precious Metals?
In this KER Market QuickTake, Cory Fleck and Shad Marquitz break down the broad correction across precious and base metals and outline where they see opportunity as year-end approaches.
- Metals correction: Gold and silver are only ~10–15% off highs, but many miners – especially juniors – are down 20–40% as momentum traders and generalists step aside.
- Majors vs. juniors: Large-cap producers (e.g., Newmont, Fresnillo) are holding up relatively well. Junior producers and developers have sold off sharply, creating what Shad sees as the best value.
- Q4 margins & Q1 setup: With gold near $4,000 and silver around $50, producers are enjoying record margins. Shad sees a strong setup for a Q1 seasonal bounce as earnings land.
- M&A & valuations: Recent takeovers (like Probe) came at low valuations. Many juniors still don’t reflect $3,500–$4,000 gold or $40–$50 silver in their NPVs.
- Financing overhang: Cory highlights heavy financing activity and incoming 4-month holds as key near-term headwinds, reinforcing the need for selectivity.
- Other metals:
- Uranium: Spot drift to mid-$70s dampens sentiment.
- Copper: Stable near $5/lb; producers outperforming the metal.
- Lithium: ETF rebound—nearly doubled since April lows.
- Uranium: Spot drift to mid-$70s dampens sentiment.
- Positioning outlook: Shad is accumulating select juniors into weakness; Cory prefers patience until clearer uptrends form, though he sees potential catalysts from policy shifts or a major new discovery.
Stocks & ETFs Mentioned: GDX, GLD, SLV, PSLV, COPX, LIT, Newmont ($NEM), Fresnillo ($FRES), Silver X, Impact Silver, Guanajuato Silver, Avino Silver & Gold.
Let us know your thoughts on the KER Market QuickTakes – Fleck@kereport.com and Shad@kereport.com
For more market commentary & interview summaries, subscribe to our Substacks:
The KE Report: https://kereport.substack.com/
Shad’s resource market commentary: https://excelsiorprosperity.substack.com/
Investment disclaimer:
This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Investing in equities and commodities involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Guests and hosts may own shares in companies mentioned.
PMs, and commodities in general, are mostly steak, with little sizzle.
They usually show what they’ve got, with very few surprises.
Other markets are mostly sizzle. Steak the surprise!
So far this quarter thru 11/18 vs. 2nd qtr, gold up 17.5%
Silver up 25.4%
The Market Quick Takes are great. You guys talk to all types of mining companies everyday along with attendance at conferences where other experts are giving their opinions. Very valuable to hear how you guys put it all together … something the rest of us can’t do.
I don’t know where things are going other than over time miners may be overly orchestrated. That puts a lot of stress on predictions as one does not know what part may have some fundamentals as a factor and what part is the program of managed money. As a result, I look at the performance of my stocks relative to each other, market conditions and where the algos are taking the General Markets that are inconsistent with logic and common sense. As a result, I take market intervention with a grain of salt and view markets more as a criminal activity among many criminal options … none being stable or secure. With that in mine it averages out risk among options as being somewhat equal as there is no regulation of the economy anymore as regulation has been removed as well as regulators, intentionally. But, businesses of all kinds need a source of funding and unless you take away the private property of all people in the free world, you better not destroy democracy as that will be the end of scamming markets and the populace. So knowing that, and knowing algos have to play correction games to keep the “free markets going”, then I have some thinking the rest of the year may not be consolidation as nobody has that many losses to sell, so the market makers will be waiting around for nothing but their own entertainment by inflicting pain while we hold and lose most of our profits but not surrender shares. So their plan should be to concentrate on the General Markets where there are tons of companies that can’t pay their growing debt and pending failure just as the US economy. (I could be wrong … maybe)