Nick Hodge – Market Reactions To War In The Middle East, Accumulating The Volatility in Gold, Uranium, and Critical Minerals Stocks
[Recorded March 18th, 2026] Nick Hodge, Co-Owner of Digest Publishing and editor of Foundational Profits and Underground Alpha, joins me for our monthly longer-format discussion on different macroeconomic factors and market reactions to the war in the Middle East, and how he continuing to accumulate select stocks into the volatility in gold, royalty, uranium, and critical minerals resource stocks.
We start off discussing the macro factors moving the markets, from slowing growth and lower GDP readings quarter over quarter, to rising inflation numbers, surging oil prices, and a higher US dollar in response to the geopolitical tensions. Whereas oil has a near 90% correlation with the UD dollar, gold has been negatively correlated, dropping while the greenback has moved higher.
Shifting over to the corrective moves in gold, silver, and the precious metals stocks, Nick points out that investors must know what they own, understand the thesis on why they own it, and have confidence in the coming catalysts and teams ability to execute.
- If investors have this understanding and conviction in their stock selections, then they’ll be able to hold through any corrective moves, like what we’ve been seeing across the board in March.
- He points out that we are still in a structural bull market in the precious metals due to a number of macroeconomic factors, and believes buying into extreme weakness will be rewarded in the future.
We then pivoted over to the advantages of the royalty stock business model, and he highlighted the value proposition that he sees in Royal Gold (NASDAQ: RGLD) and how he utilized the strategy of setting targeted limit orders to take advantage of market volatility and acquire a larger position recently.
Shifting over to the junior mining stocks, Nick highlighted the corrective moves and lack of buying volume in some of names he’s been acquiring like North Shore Uranium Ltd. (TSX-V:NSU) and Daura Gold Corp. (TSXV: DGC) (OTC Pink: DGCOF).
- This transitioned the conversation over into some of the macro drivers of nuclear power and the need for new uranium discoveries.
Wrapping up we briefly covered the renewed investor interest and participation in critical minerals companies focused on rare earths, antimony, tungsten, tantalum, niobium, scandium, and germanium.
- With regards to rare earths, he mentioned Energy Fuels Inc. (NYSE American: UUUU) (TSX: EFR), due to their ability to mine mineral sands projects globally, to then separate, and process rare earths domestically.
- Nick also flagged PMET Resources Inc. (TSX: PMET) (ASX: PMT) (OTCQX: PMETF) as a company that not only has a world-class lithium project, but also compelling caesium and tantalum resources.
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Watching resource stocks go down day after day, I’ve seen this move a couple of times before. You think it should end soon but it doesn’t, it really is like watching a train wreck in slow motion.
If people knew what was happening at the moment in The Middle East, this decline in stock values wouldn’t be so terrifying. It is the unknown which causes real panic. DT
Tripled my holding in Astra Exploration after more good drill results. News not affecting price or volume so far. Quad-drupple witching day … criminals go out to eat at their favorite restaurant tonight.
Another boring week in the metals and miners!
Gary posted this..
Gary Savage
@garysavage1
Keeping an eye out for the massive volume flush. It’s the signal that dumb money retail and hedge funds have finally panicked and sold. But there has to be a buyer. The buyers are the smart money banks and experienced professionals.
When dumb money is panicking, and selling, and smart money is buying in massive volume, you are at or within days of the final bottom.
The bullish percent hit 3% yesterday. We will get to the bottom of it next week.
Mentioned last week to Dan that I believed we were 2/3 weeks away. I’m sticking to it. End of next week, final carnage bottom, and we turn the following week. April will be big, the opposite of what 90% are saying currently.
For me it all depends on whether The Middle East war shows signs of abatement. The economy revolves around energy prices which will get much worse as this war drags on. It is easy to start a war but extremely hard to stop. Remember the war in Afghanistan dragged on for twenty years but it didn’t involve the critical components of oil, natural gas, and fertilizer. This war is a horse of a different color. DT
This week was far from boring… it was actually insanely volatile to the downside, and a lot of chart damage was inflicted on both the metals and miners on both the daily and weekly charts.
Even the monthly chart of silver is looking pretty ugly now. We were due for a monthly red candle in both silver and gold but the selling really snowballed on itself in March, post-PDAC.
Personally, this is one of the worst weeks I’ve ever had investing in resource stocks for the last 16 years. I agree that the selling will exhaust itself in the near-term, but that’s after a huge amount of value destruction has already taken place. Some silver producers are down 40%-60% just in March. Copper stocks and uranium stocks also tanked. That’s a far cry from being boring!
Yes … one of the worst weeks ever as it is counter-intuitive. Some of the pundits are saying it is the same old price suppression intervention that has capped miners for years. They are also debating whether it is a continuance of allowing shorts to escape from years of assisting the government in physical metals suppression to hold up the failing dollar. The two reasons above seem intertwined and just maybe after they get through, things may begin reflecting some actual value .
Nobody knows what all the different reasons are for such a strong selloff, because it is really a whole range of reasons, and rarely just one or two things. I’m not convinced that it is all price suppression or intervention from huge institutions, but maybe there is some of that in there too.
In conversations I’ve had throughout March with a number of resource investing bulls, even many of them were selling due to a variety of fears where they felt compelled to exit partial or total positions.
Again, technically the sector was due for red monthly candle in gold, silver, and the PM stocks… but the selling really snowballed to the point where the trap door opened and longer-term stops were eventually run for some folks, in a cascade of selling that just fed on the prior selling.
Yes the war is obviously a big factor, as is the related surging oil price, stronger dollar index, and rising interest rates.
However, intermixed is also plenty of legit profit taking to preserve gains or to rotate funds elsewhere.
Some investors that don’t normally short used inverse ETFs to capitalize on the momentum gaining to the downside, which led to even more short interest growing.
There were margin calls = forced liquidation.
Some technical traders exited positions once support levels were broken, which led to even more selling.
All of these different factors have added up to a very ugly March, where we often have strong seasonal weakness as another headwind.
Look at this huge red ugly engulfing monthly candle on silver that cleared out the prior 2 months candles from January and February and closed below the December close.
https://cdn-ceo-ca.s3.amazonaws.com/1krrf6a-Silver%202-year%20monthly%20chart.JPG
Agree with you on “many reasons” and some headed to the hills in a big fashion. I noted Rick Rule moved out of silver early and Peter Grandich moved out of all of his Juniors except Northisle saying the risk was too high … despite fundamentals being favorable (as they have been for fifty years). I was never too big into silver junior stocks unless they were heavy in some other metals like Emo or Magna Mining. I also was going to hold stocks like Talon because a real move hasn’t happened yet, San Lorenzo because I am holding free shares and Northisle which is just a strong long term play already.
From early talk, the expectation was that a correction of 20 % was a good chance, but that was peanuts for a junior … so I expected the general markets to set the pace as they were long overdue. I should have known better when the Miners were leading the way down when they should have stopped and watched the general markets flail. The war changed the narrative as there were so many factors showing poor judgement (preemptive strike) that the powers that be were going to have to reverse the dollar and make the metals the goat, again, because the voters probably couldn’t handle increased food and gas prices AND a crashing general markets at same time. Had we just had to deal with unpayable debt and turned over the Epstein files, a normal correction in miners may have occurred.
However, when all the manufactured Drama ends, corruption dies down … maybe I will see my Juniors get back on the road to their true potential and value. In the meantime, I will change “happy to glad” in my portfolio as opportunities arise like adding back Sitka and West Red Lake this week. If I haven’t mentioned it above, we still need to audit the Exchange Stabilization Fund, The Fed and OMB so we know what to complain about in more specific detail.
Hi Ex, the demand destruction that is going on in The Middle East won’t be the end in the near term. This war in The Middle East is a game changer. The debt situation at all levels is piling up, government, personal, and business. This war will be a legacy left for many generations to come. Trying to rebuild the damaged infrastructure will take decades. Meanwhile our economies need cheap energy and low interest rates to avoid a catastrophe, neither is on the horizon. You are an optimist, I am a realist. DT
Agreed on most points DT. The prevailing attitude that this was going to be a quick operation, was as near-sighted as every other time nations meddled in the Middle East. Look at the attitudes going into Afghanistan and Iraq and how long the conflict was drawn out, the cost, the damage, the human lives lost, the ripple effects, etc… I’m not a fan of war at all, nor do I support all the intervention into other nations, but just dealing with the cards we are all dealt here with the market and economic consequences.
George Carlin on War, this video was made in 1992 when The US invaded Iraq, it is more relevant today than it was then. DT
This might explain some of the extra weakness in IPT in the last few days. There are always people who know the news before it is made public.
IMPACT Silver Announces Temporary Suspension of Underground Mining at Plomosas
https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/energy/articles/impact-silver-announces-temporary-suspension-200000574.html
Just another opportunity to buy low and sell higher down the road…and the painted ponies go round and round.
When it comes to investing we only have ourselves to blame. Most investors spend more time deciding on what car to buy but no time on deciding which stock to buy. Instead I here things like I don’t have the time to do Due Diligence or I picked that stock because it was recommended by another stock guru who does in depth analysis, and meanwhile they know little about the person who recommended the stock because that would mean they have to spend time looking into the credentials of the person who made the recommendation. LOL! DT
Shanghai spot silver at $77 still maintaining the $10 premium to comex spot. Sunday night will be interesting.
Prices for oil, fuel cargoes smash record highs as Iran war chokes Middle East supply
By Robert Harvey and Georgina Mccartney – Reuters – March 19, 2026
“Surging oil prices in physical markets – the trading place for oil on ships, rail cars or in storage tanks – have outpaced the already dizzying increases in benchmark futures markets, as refiners and traders across Asia and Europe are snapping up whatever barrels they can secure to plug the enormous supply gap caused by the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran.”
“That supply gap is expected to persist following a barrage of attacks on oil-and-gas facilities across the Middle East that has turned into the largest-ever disruption to global energy supplies. Iran has also throttled traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the critical waterway transited by 20% of the world’s oil and gas, with threats to fire on ships that attempt to sail through the narrow strait.”
“It is going to take longer than people realize to bring supply back to the market even once the strait is re-opened, because we would still have a logistics nightmare,” said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/prices-oil-fuel-cargoes-smash-record-highs-iran-war-chokes-middle-east-supply-2026-03-19/